Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20130207 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange February 7, 2013

This is todays Worldwide Exchange. Im ross westgate. And im kelly evans. These are your headlines from around the world. Euro trade ahead of the ecb Rate Decision with the central bank not expected to move. Theres a new man in town. The next bank of England Governor Mark carney faces lawmaker easy here in the uk with investigators keen to get his read on the outlook of the economy. New money below expectations, although the stock is trading higher. And the falling yen helping to keep sony in the game. The playstationmaker plans to stay in the game. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. All right. Welcome to todays program. Weve got extended programming today because of the bank of england and ecb rates. Its not the Worldwide Exchange program are you involved, still . Youve got a long day ahead. If you like your Business News if you like your central bank meeting, which come on. And here is the thing. I was talking about it earlier in the week. Is it just questions dense that mark carney is giving testimony while the bank of england is sitting down to decide upon the rate policy . That seems weird to me. But even if it happens on the state or what have you, just understates what theyre paying to mark carney and basically ignoring the group hes about to take over. Theyre a busy group. Theres apparently only one day this whole month they could possibly have him in. Anyway, as we were talking about thats right. Mark carney will be grilled by the treasury committee. That will start in about 45 minutes time and we will be carrying the feed. Markets will be watching closely for carneys stance on his new role in supervising the financial sector. Well bring you that live. Its been about 45 minutes time for mow. And before that, we have got the latest manufacturing figures, Industrial Production, as well. Weak q4, looking for signs that things are getting better. We already though for spain they were a little bit better, hab, but still down sharply from a year earlier. So the big question is how will the pound trade through this carney testimony . Joining us is sophie wynn. How much expectation is built into the pound ahead of this . The expectation is hes going to come in and be fairly dovish. Its a risk that he isnt and, therefore, the pound strengthens. We think that the market may be disappointed with the announcement. We dont think we are going to hear anything radical on this statement by the upcoming governor. Why . Well, basically, i think, you know, the expectations are that the ecb is going to go for a nominal gdp target at least for some time. And we think the risks are too much for them to for the government to pursue these sort of bodies. He will entertain before going for this. The bank of england will be under some pressure. Currencies dont act in a vacuum. So as we see other potential moves to weakening currencies around the globe, were at 1. 5668. Where might this pair be headed, then, if youre not expecting carney to come in and immediately talk or wind up having effective currency lower . We think the guarantee should weaken readily. We dont think the currency will be, you know, underperforming going forward. It should be played in between, depending on what sort of statement we hear trt upcoming Central Bank Governor we will see where its going. But so far, we dont think that this meeting with the treasury will be something to worry about for the move on the pound. Okay. Jose, stay there because we want to talk ecb, as well, decision time, of course, in frankfurt. Were not expecting a change in policy, but we are looking for any explicit reference to the Exchange Rate or future moves that might weaken the euro. Sylvia is in frankfurt for us. Sylvia, when were in davos, the comments from the ecb, mr. Draghi, we dont care about the ecb change or comfortable with it, to paraphrase it. I wonder whether the speech this week from mr. Hollande has any impact whatsoever. Nope. Weve already heard this from the ecb many, many, many times before over the past more than a decade. There is no Exchange Rate target. We havent got an exchangerateoriented policy. The ecb doesnt in its comments care about the Exchange Rate as long as there are no disorderly market conditions. Thats when they start getting worried, when the pendulum swings to high, when it gets erratic, when theres panic in the markets. Like we had panic in the markets in the last few years. Thats when the alarm bells at the ecb go off. Not when theres a slow or gradual move. Thats what the Central Bank Governor earlier said this week. And i daresay something along those lines is what mario draghi is going to say. Hes going to answer the question, weve had enough questions of that feeled both for trichet and draghi where they simply say we dont comment on Exchange Rate, next question, please. Sylvia, its not just macro policy that policymakers will be debating in the meeting today. We have this issue with the angelo irish, the bad bank in ireland where lawmakers have concluded that and wind down with it. I guess now what has to happen is this emergency, Debt Repayment deal were potentially going to hear about today. Do you have any sense about the deals timing . Are we going to hear about this in the press conference, perhaps . And whats at stake here . Well, what weve heard before the decision of lawmakers but overnight last night was that a decision would not be forthcoming at todays council meeting. You know that the ecb meets every two weeks, but only every four weeks as a press conference. My guess is they want to have a closer look at that and were either going to hear about it next time around or in between these meetings. But probably not today. I think today were going to stick with the strict business on hand and thats Monetary Policy and might be talking about the lcr repayment and what that means for Monetary Policy and for the ecbs verdict on what the Banking System looks like at the moment, but thats about it. Sylvia, thanks so much for clearing that up. Lets bring you back in here. Look, we were down well, we got to the euro dollar, 1. 3450 at the beginning of the week. Weve been up, of course, towards 1. 38. What is the line now for euro dollar . Well, actually, we think its going up. Theres quite a bit of momentum. You have major Central Banks in the world pumping money. We may see what happens here in the uk, but also, you see japan, the fed pumping at the base of 85 million a month. The ecb has maintained a more hawkish stance. Even though we believe that it is fairly priced, its about 3 expensive according to our measures. We may see momentum going into the euro in spite of the fact about this speculation about currency wars. Yeah. I mean, whats the risk going into the g20 meeting later in the month . I think the g20 group has lost power, really. If you look at the members, quite a bit of them have already gone into Monetary Policy, theres little they can say about this. I dont think this is going to go into major war. Meanwhile, the yen continues. We just want to get a quick view on that target. We continue to see, continue to see that the yen will weaken going forward. We would see these numbers highly uncertain. What we are looking for is early warnings that the yen may be reaching a bottom and for that we would need to see some indications that Inflation Expectation has been building and nothing so far has been priced. Or that there is some surprise which may show up for a couple of years, actually. We are up for quite a bit of rise in the yen. Thank you, jose wynne, ahead of fx research at barclays. Shares are rising this morning with a lot of almost 1. 4 billion euros following a drop in sales and impairment charge. The decision to step down is the best for the future of alcatellucent is what he said. It is execution, execution, execution. And maybe that is not the natural strengths that i have. So you have to be honest with yourself, to the company and to the environment. And after five years, its better for somebody else to take the helm of the company. You have to have a thoroughly debate first with yourself and then with the board and make a decision. I took the decision its hard, you know . It is emotional. It feels like painful, but at the same time, its better for the company and, therefore, thats what you have to do. Its interesting to look at shares of Alcatel Lucent today responding sharply to the upside. Theyve been hammered. So some context here. 7. 6 with the move. Alcatel lucent and bankia. So thats the kind of trading session were having. Its quite interesting to hear from a man who is so honest, to come out and say, you know, its execution, execution, execution and im not the guy for it. And thats not necessarily my strength. The candor, i think, is appreciated on that. Its very rare you hear ceos with that amount of honesty. Outgoing, too. Credit suisse shares moving higher after the Bank Reported weaker than expected numbers from the Fourth Quarter. The Swiss Banking giant said it would expand to 4. 4 billion swiss francs up in a previously announced 4 billion franc target. Carolin, investors are pushing shares higher today. Absolutely. Shares have been on a volatile ride this morning. Shares were poised to open lower, then they were lower, then they were flat and now theyre up. At this point, investors are unsure what the numbers actually mean. Let me walking through the details. Credit suisse did raise the cot cutting target by 4 million swiss francs. When i talked to the ceo this morning, he said he couldnt rule out further job cuts. In terms of the positive take aways, Wealth Management showing very strong margin, much better than those at cross town rival ubs. Also, the company has made further improvements in terms of the capital levels. Now at 9. 4 . You cant deny the fact that the Investment Banking unit was a bit of a disappointment, specifically fixed income revenues the. They were down 38 quarter on quarter. When i spoke to the ceo of Credit Suisse, he was more optimistic about what the First Quarter and the rest of the year would bring. Obviously, there is more confidence right now. I think people are being a bit more opportunistic in terms of both from a corporate point of view and from our private clients. But, you know, as always, as weve seen in previous years, that can be fragile. Well have to see how the year progresses. Certainly now the markets have a very positive approach and our clients mostly are feeling, i think, more positive about the markets. But, again, you never know what macro events might intervene to shake that confidence. So well have to wait and see. So what are the biggest risks here to client activity . Well, i think it is some of the broader issues that would happen, some of the old issues, whether its eurozone issues that could reappear, issues in the u. S. On the fiscal front. Obviously, growth around the world. I think were all pretty constructive on those issues, but im sure there will be uppes and downs every year as there are this year. And in an hour tr now, were going to talk to one banking analyst who says that the investment banks will continue to be more volatile than those at ubs because ubs has made a bigger cut. Well speak to him in one hours time. For now, im going to go back into the warm where its not snowing as hard. Meanwhile, my cameraman has built something very nice, a very nice snowman. Hes even got a hat. We noticed that straightaway. And so did michael houston. Carolin, whose hat is that, by the way . Its a hat, its a snow hat from davos, as far as i know. Its a davos hat. A agageneric davos hat. Next time we come back, i want some eyes and a nose. If we can do that, that would be very good. Youve got an hour. Thanks, carolin, thanks, kurt. Now, the falling yen is helping to keep sony on its profit path. The home electronicsmaker is sticking by its outlook as the weaker currency helped its bottom line. Sony turned a profit in the Third Quarter. Although it did fall short of analyst targets. Sony will be releasing a playstation four later this year. Today, sony trimmed its full year sales target for tv, compacts and gaming devices. It expects a lower yen to make up about 180 million in savings. Sonys game plan for 2013, is it viable . Later well hear from top analyst micola gohkho in singapore. Meanwhile, were an hour and 15 minutes into trade in europe. Pretty cautious ahead of whats going on with policymakers. Five to five, advancers to decliners on the stoxx europe 600. Ftse 100, absolutely up five points. The cac 40 is fairly flat, as well. Key focus, the debt market today in europe will be the spanish auction. Up 4. 5 billion up three issues. Whats interesting here, the tenyear spanish yield, 5. 47 . Kind of the levels that we reached on monday when spikes spiked higher. On the twos and fives yields today are higher than where we were when we had these last auctions in january. Had 2. 47 was where were trading in january. Around 3. 77 is where were trading on the fiveyear when we had an auction in mid january. Right now, 4. 18 . So we are about 30, 40 basis points higher. Thats where we should specific potentially those auctions to go, as well. Well look for that. On the currency markets, euro slshl dollar, 1. 356. 1. 3459 is the low that we hit tuesday morning. Dollar yen, 93. 77. Aussie dollar, 1. 03. Sterling dollar, 1. 5673. On a 24hour basis, we havent moved an awful lot right now on these currency rates. Lets find out whats happening in asia. Meanwhile, li sixuan joins us for the first time today. Hi, sixuan. Hi. Thank you, ross. The nikkei retreated from the fouryear high ending down nearly 1 . Despite strong machinery order status, really, the domestic earnings cues weighing on the japanese market. Nickon fell after operating profits and forecasts. Yamaha lost nearly 15 . But its celebrating ahead of mazda motor after raising its full year guidance. The shanghai composite paired back early losses, but still snapped its eightday winning streaks. Banks rallied despite an injection earlier this week. Chalco lost nearly 3 . This will be removed from the hang seng index while lenovo will be added to the index in march. Gained about 5 today and had already gained 40 during the past 12 months on strong business momentum. Elsewhere, the kospi finished weaker for the fifth straight session to end at a tenweek low, but Australian Shares gained 0. 3 helped by gains in ba banks, miners and telco. Come up on todays program, were going to be in paris after break to hear from the ceo of synofi. And the government warnings the an slowdown might be worse than expected. Also, daimler is running on flat tires. Well talk to the ceo at 11 40 Central European time as the carmaker expects no change in earnings for 2013. And at 11 30th cet well hear from the caps cans governor Mark Parkinson about whether lawmakers can bridge the divide over upcoming sequester talks. And after that well ahead out to brussels where jeanclaude yunker says a deal on the budget could be sealed today. Great, everybody made it. We all work remotely so this is a big deal, our first full Team Gathering i wanted to call on a few people. Ashley, ashley marshall. Here. Since were often all on the move, ashley suggested we use fedex office to hold packages for us. Great job. [ applause ] thank you. And on a protocol note, id like to talk to tim hill about his tendency to use all caps in emails. [ shouting ] oh im sorry guys. Ah sometimes the caps lock gets stuck on my keyboard. Hey do you wanna get a drink later . [ male announcer ] hold packages at any fedex office location. Sanofi present diktd it will be back in good health by the second half of the year. And despite the impact of drug patent losses it says its on track to meet midterm targets. Stephane is in paris. Were looking for the share price reaction in sanofi. Its actually down 3 . Its among the ten weakest perform hers on the stoxx 600 today. So ininvestors are not too pleased with these results, i guess. No the. And thats called the patent cliff, which patents expired last year faced strong competition from drugmakers. Sanofi lost much money last year. Sanofi is expecting earning hes to be flat to 5 lower. However, the ceo is confident that the company will return to growth in terms of earnings in the second half of this year. Once we are able to get the full effect of plavix behind us, then we will begin to grow and we expect that to occur in the second half of 2013. What will be the main driver . The main driver is whats really been driving the business over the last three or four years, which is growth platforms. Sanofi is the story of two companies. Theres an old sanofi base odd these block busters, nine of them which have progressively lost sales over the last four years due to generics. And then theres the new sanofi. And those businesses represent 70 of our sales today and they grew at roughly 10 last year. How do you think austerity measure necessary europe will impact your activity this year . Well, those are principally in europe where the government, of course, is the principal payer of health care. And that is a difficult environment. We see that with increased generic utilization, with Price Productions and increased difficulty in getting price for innovation and new products. I really dont see that changing over the next two to three years. But thats also why weve allowed our sales in europe to go from 33 down to 23 and i would anticipate it will be less than 20 in two years time. Whats your strategy in terms of r d . Some of your competitors have announced theyre going to increase sharply their r d investment this year. The funny thing is, how much you spend on r d doesnt necessarily correlate to success. So weve tried a much different model, and that is really to move to this open innovation c

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