Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20130313 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange March 13, 2013

Notice the location. I always like to say there is a bull market somewhere, i promise to try to find it for you here on mad money. Im jim cramer. I will see you tomorrow welcome to todays Worldwide Exchange. Im kelly evans. A touch disappointing. Thats the word on the street after sales growth slow in the Fourth Quarter. Shares are lower. And prudential stock is on the rise after the insurance giant raises the dividend by 16 on the back of better than expected fullyear profits. Plus a battle of the u. S. Budget plans. Senate democrats are set to unveil the answer to republican paul ryans deficit cutting proposal today. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange bringing you Business News from around the globe. It looks like a touch weaker for u. S. Futures. Look at the action. The dow did manage just at the end of the day to eke out small gains yesterday and that means its been eight Straight Days of gains for this index. Can it be nine . Unusual. That would be the first time in 16 years in fact. Meanwhile, perhaps some cautionary signs in the nasdaq which has had a weak couple of days stretch over here. S p 500 also ended lower and looks to give up a point or two this morning as well. 1,545 is the level there. Were down 0. 2 in the ftse global 300. A lot of action in the last half hour. Were seeing the euro weakening and general sense of risk coming off the table as we head closer to the weekend. Key bond auctions today as well. Italy going to market and we see italian stocks giving up. 75 of 1 . Spain down by twothirds of 1 . Ftse 100 message is consistent and theres been a lot of earnings driven disappointments this morning as well. I mentioned bond space. Heres whats happening. Weve been watching the difference between spain and italy. Italy a rare red spot today selling ahead of the auction. One thing interesting to see is whether this differential inches closer together. The u. S. Tenyear still sitting just over 2 . There will be an auction, a big u. S. Auction later this afternoon to keep an eye on. Lets flip over and switch on heres the italian curve ahead of that debt auction. 4. 63 down at the far end. Threeyear which is often a key one to watch given what we heard with various measures taken to support shorter term debt, 2. 6 . Now a quick check of 4x rates. It is sitting still just about above that 130 level. Dollar yen seeing heavy trading. And over here the sterling dollar is moving higher. Still below that 1. 50 level. The question is after the significant weakness over the last several sessions whether we are now starting to form a bottom. For more with the japanese yen trade and more from across asia, lets go to singapore. Theres been red arrows across the board in europe. It looks like thats been the case in asia as well. Youre right, kelly. A lot of red arrows in asia after the dow extended the winning streak they continued to lose ground as investors found no positive drivers to keep it going. Sentiment remained weak after a moderation in the economic recovery while renewed Inflationary Pressure dampened hopes. Property counters and financials extend losses. Railway stocks took a beating on concerns that the rail system reforms may bring in more competition. The massive debt under the old ministry of railways could be passed to public. Hong hong shares drug it lower today. The selloff was prompted by a squeeze on housing prices for the year. Exporter stocks came under pressure. But shares of minikon gained toy and Samsung Electronic shares jumped 2 ahead of the launch of galaxy s4 smartphone later this week. Shares of National Australia bank lost 2 today after cost cutting plan undershot expectations and india is trading lower by almost 1 . Back to you, kelly. Thanks for that. Interesting to see samsung shares bid up ahead of the launch Event Next Week and extent to which samsung replaced apple to some extent when it comes to market excitement. I digress. Flashes out of the iea which in the latest Oil Market Report is talking about how the death of venezuelan leader hugo chavez may post challenges for chinese oil interests. We have seen oil prices roughly unchanged this morning. Were seeing a bid on light crude up a quarter of 1 . Brent selling off a tenth of one percent sitting at 1. 09 a barrel. The point here saying Venezuelas Oil industry faces enormous challenges from underinvestment and an oil policy that kept foreign partners waiting in the wings for serious reorganization. Agreements for loans between china and venezuela provided a windfall for chavez initially but its been disappointing for beijing. Your Corporate News this morning. Shares are trading lower of inditex. Some analysts warn of slowing growth for the Worlds Largest fashion group. Sales jumped 16 last year with strong growth in asia. The Company Plans to open more than 440 new stores and launch its Online Shopping website in russia later this year. The group also posed a 22 dividend hike. For mo are you surprised by the share reaction or what is it about these results that isnt going over well with investors today . Not that surprised. They missed slightly on Fourth Quarter numbers. Given the share price performed well and valuation is looking relatively rich at 35 premium relative to historic averages, there had to be an upgrade on the back of where shares were already. Not surprised to see shares come off a bit to reflect slowing growth. You said 30 , 35 valuation above historical norm would be justified by the fact you see double digit Earnings Growth in this group over the longterm. Has any of that fundamentally changed after results and what it says today . Nothing has changed. This is a company which has revolutionized clothing retail. Model is strong. Big competitive advantage which gets bigger with very high barriers to entry. Within the last three years we have seen growth 20 . Going forward it will be 15 . Thats understandable considering the kind of base of comparison becomes bigger and bigger. 6 is above their own longterm projections. That level of growth was going to be unsustainable over the longer term. That said, you are still looking at a solid growth of 15 earnings for the next few years. You talked about retail becoming polarized and there have been it matters greatly whose horse you have been on. If you had bought and sold in the last couple years you would have done great. Is it time for rotation . H m has come forward with the line in london thats more upscale. New line and other stores they are launched. Massive investment. Are they starting to get it . Any reason why them being cheaper and underperformed investors may want to rotate . A lot of reasons for the underperformance. Its been justified. Theres a question of difference of supply chains and that goes to the heart of why they have been successful. They are close to the consumer. They leave a bigger portion of their budget buying in season to follow recent trends and keep up with where consumer demand is going. Its locked in its budget from the beginning of the season giving it less flexibility. The other point is around positioning. 5 to 10 of the product is really basic on the other hand h m is more basic. At the beginning of the 2000s, that was a better place to be and i think the move offshore of production and deflation of input costs really helped allowed that positioning as a value retailer was cemented. Weve seen inflation from input costs and the consumer is looking to spend less on clothing and buy fewer items and go more into fashion. As a result i think there are some structural challenges that h and m faces as far as positioning which may prove difficult Going Forward and growth will be less certain. All that said and relative advantages that they have, it does look like they are having to do more to try to protect Gross Margins and coming under pressure. What is it you think thats going on here . I think of course when youve had so many years of growth and expansion, it just gets harder to grow on top of that. I think theres a lot of opportunities. If you look at the market share they have in spain of 12 its amazing. The whole market only 12 . Is that high by retail standards . It seems pretty low. I think its still a fragmented market. They have been growing in spain despite economic downturn there. Some other key Growth Markets like the u. S. , china, brazil, russia. I estimate they have low single digit market share. A lot of opportunities considering this is a very global product with global appeal, why cant they replicate success theyve had in their own market. A lot of opportunity Going Forward. We are growing on a much bigger base so it will be increasingly more difficult to have the growth weve had in the last few years. Well see if that keeps the floor. Thanks very much. Shares and Staffing Company adecco are trading lower. 3. 4 you can see in that trade. Not a good sign in terms of what it indicates for staffing across some of europe. Uk Insurer Prudential recorded a profit outperforming forecasts. Results boosted by a strong rise in the Asia Business which helped the group increase the dividend by more than expected 16 . Also a sharp contrast with the rival which cut dividend and saw shares punished. Look at the reaction to prudential shares today. Well bring it to you when we can show you. There you go. Up 2 or thereabout. The ceo of prudential explained why the Company Continues to see Strong Demand in asia. Its about customers. We are selling products for which there is Strong Demand and providing for the asian middle class. You can take any statistics, 28 of the world middle class is in asia. 90 increasing middle class between now and 2014 will be in asia. So to be number one in seven Asian Countries where that middle class is emerging is a fantastic position to be in. Security solutions providing g4s has reported a profit drawing a line under a year they rather forget. Headlights last summer after bundling a contract with providing london olympics with security staff. In an interview earlier, they thanked shareholders for their support during these troubling times. Shareholders were supporter of the company and me in particular last year and im very grateful for that. Businesses continue to perform well in a tough year. And also feeling the heat over sponsorship back to 2008 beijing olympic games. They are complying with an investigation into anticorruption laws. Earlier the u. S. Justice department and Australian Federal police are looking into allegations that bhp provided inducements, gifts and hospitality to officials. The company says they believe they complied with all laws. Chinas central bank changed Monetary Policy to neutral from loose saying it will be vigilant with inflation fighting measures. Well get Market Reaction when we come back. Zap technology. Arrival. With hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. Zap. Its our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. Its just another way youll be traveling at the speed of hertz. Chinas Central Bank Governor says they must remain vigilant to keep a hand on inflati inflation. Great to see you. Any time a central bank talks tough on inflation, the market can read between the lines here. Does this mean more tightening is on the way . Thats what a lot of people have been talking about whether it does is anyones guess at this point because just to put it all in context, Chinas Central Bank isnt like other Central Banks in the industrialized world. For example, ben bernanke can make his own call but here in china mr. Zhou can advise the state council and they are in power. In china theres a push and pull within the government where you have very powerful factions who are incentivized to deliver on growth and you have people like mr. Zhou and his gang who are really concerned about inflation and we heard that again today at the press conference those concerns about being vigilant about inflation and he said that Monetary Policy needed to no longer be loose but neutral. What about these comments hes making about property as well. Now people are starting to look and say if china is shifting its position, what matters isnt just the fact that it may be on net moving from loose to neutral or maybe to tighter Monetary Policy but how it chooses to do so. What does the initial reaction seem to be to the property measures announced and do you expect them to go more down that route or toward raising Interest Rates . Well, at this stage a lot of people are talking about how he is talking about targeted measures again to try to rein in property prices. No matter how many measures we have seen the government slap on housing prices, people love to buy new houses because they dont have anywhere else to invest. A lot of people are trying to find ways around these new measures. You probably have heard that there have been couples who have been getting divorced in order to try to evade this 24 Capital Gains tax on second houses. A great point and one that reminds you of bubbly periods from other markets around the world like the u. S. Maybe within the last couple of years and demand is usually a sign that the market is off kilter. Thanks very much this morning. And Market Reaction to that was broadly a selloff across asia and now turning to russia, president Vladimir Putin has chosen a woman to be head of the national bank. She served as economy minister from 2008 to 2009 and the first female central banker for a g8 country. Shell take over from an inflation fighter. It should happen in june. The appointment raised questions about the Central Banks independence and concerns kremlin will push for looser policy. We want to know what you think of the measure. Is it a significant one for females, for the g8 or for russias Monetary Policy. Send us your thoughts here. If you are just joining us, these are your headlines. Italy prepares to test bond markets with its first longterm auction since a rating downgrade from fitch. Spanish retail giant sees shares dip despite reporting solid profits and Senate Democrats tee up to reveal their own budget plan. Straight ahead on the program, can the dow close at a high for a record ninth day . Well preview the u. S. Trading session when we come back. Stay here. Today is gonna be an important day for us. You ready . We wanna be our brothers keeper. Whats number two we wanna do . Bring it up to 90 decatherms. How bout ya, joe . Lets go ahead and bring it online. Attention on site, attention on site. Now starting unit nine. Some of the worlds cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of americas biggest cities. Siemens. Answers. Another day another day and another record for the dow which has now closed up for the eighth consecutive session. If the index closes higher today it will be the first nineday winning streak in 16 years. What does it all mean . Chad, will it happen and does it matter . Well, in the short run we could run a little bit further. Our s p target for the time being is about 1,575 based off a liquidity drive and economic numbers that have been coming out that have been somewhat better than expected. Its interesting that you are actually cautious here. You say theres 113 per share built in for this year and not necessarily achievable and that market have overrun and you mentioned the dan greenhouse point that were well above moving averages on all of the indexes ripe for a pullback. Right. I mean, look, weve had a very nice run within the financial markets. The problem is that the baton has to be passed from the liquidity run rally to an economic and earnings story. S p earnings expectations are 105 which is well below s p earnings estimates for the street of about 113. Now, we are seeing the Global Growth story that is hampered by the european slowdown with our expectations for gdp to actually contract in europe by a half percent or even more. There is some i was going to say the dow and s p are all Global Indexes at this point at 40 of sales coming from overseas but i wonder given what youre saying, weve seen the nasdaq sit out of the rally the last couple days and signs this is getting tired. Whats an investor to do. You dont want to buy in at the top. Are there ways to play this market where you dont necessarily have to sit in cash . As a value driven Equity Investor and thats the portfolio that we manage, i would like to the tech names, technology names, tech sector is somewhat undervalued and you can find Many Companies that will consistently grow and be well capitalized. One to name is cisco systems. Below ten when you net out cash and its consistently growing and profitable and if you get better than expected earnings there and a little bit of a drift on Economic Growth over 2013 and 2014, you could do quite well. Well leave it right there. Chad, really appreciate your time. Now, of course were waiting on the papal vote. We may find out if the next pope has been elected. Looking in the corner there, forget the market levels. We want to look at the Sistine Chapel at this point waiting to see if smoke is black or white. Also straight ahead,

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