Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20130919 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange September 19, 2013

As well. Basic resources leading the way. Gold initially striekd by more than 4 on the back of the fed. And a no taper move translate into the emerging markets. Currencies like the rupee surge in countries like thailand and indonesia. And stocks get the eurozone, more protests expected in greece after the murder of a 34yearold rapper brought violent clashes. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. All right. Were up and running here on Worldwide Exchange. Big Global Reaction to the fed. It says its not ready to cut back just yet, deciding not to taper its massive Bond Buying Program the markets had been expecting. In its statement, the fed cited tightening Financial Conditions that could hurt the u. S. Economy and labor market. The fomc notice dollars the impact of rising Mortgage Rates which have surged since the fed hinted this summer that it might trim its bond purchases. The Federal Reserve blamed washington for moving towards a potential shutdown. In his press conference, ben bernanke says the fed could still taper before the end of the year depending on whether growth and the pace of hiring improve. There is no fixed calendar schedule. I really have to emphasize that. If the data confirm our basic outlook, if we gain more confidence in that outlook and we believe that the threepart test that i mentioned is indeed coming to pass, then we could move later this year. We could begin later this year. But even if we do that, the subsequent steps will be dependent on conditioned progress in the economy. So we are tied to the data. We dont have a fixed calendar. The fomc cut its forecast for the third time. Although its still expected to pick up in 2014 and 15 and believes unemployment could fall to below 6 by then. Massive Global Reaction ahead for investors that had priced in. Of course, a spike higher in yields. Right now on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, nine to one. Were about 1 higher right now. This follows the s p up at fresh record highs, the nasdaq up at a new 13year high post that decision yesterday. Right now in europe, the ftse was down about 11 points yesterday, up 94, 11. 5 higher. The dax up at fresh record territory, cac 40 up 1. 2 . Ftse mib up 1. 3 . The biggest impact has been in emerging markets. Commodities moved spot gold. 1,370. Brent up marginally, not an awful lot, 110. As is nymex, although it did move yesterday during the u. S. Session. A lot of these commodities do see whats happening with the dollar. The dollar index down at sevenmonth lows and thats been predicated by the fact weve seen a sharp drop in yields, as well, on treasury. 10year tre treasury yields, 2. 7 . We were 2. 6 before the fed came out with this afounsment. We got yields down to 1. 67 on monday. Gilt yields were nudging 3 , current by back down to 2. 8 on that and spanish yields down to 4. 32 , as well. Those lower yields helping to drive the dollar lower, as well. Dollar down at sevenmonth lows on the index. 1. 3549 is where we stand. 7 1 2 year high for euro dollar on that level. Dollar yen, 98. 86. A drop in u. S. Yields should mean the dollar gets sold out, but of course theres an increase in risk appetite. Sterling dollar, 1. 311. Aussie dollar up to 0. 95, as well. Thats where we stand over this trading session here in europe. Lets recap whats happened in asia and sixuan has got that. Thank you, ross. Asian investors cheering the feds decision to maintain the pace of the bond purchase. Major bourses are higher today and some of these emerging markets are soaring. Although some sensitive current counters were kind of out of favor today given the yen is still trading below the 99 the handle. The nikkei 225 still close at its eightweek high helped by financials, real estate and resources counters. Meanwhile, shanghai, taiwan and south korea is out of action today and the hang seng is trading up against the Public Holiday tomorrow, ending higher by 1. 7 . It has now recouped all the losses since may when bernanke announced the tapering. In the meantime, south korea and indonesia making big jumps. Indias rupee, indonesias r rue pea ya are gaining from 1 to 2 against the green back. Rupiah a against the green back. Australian gold miners also clocked in double digit gains. Laser gold and kingsgate both jumped over 15 . These Hong Kong Listed blue chip banks gained some over 2 in todays trade. Back to you. All right. Sixuan, thanks very much indeed for that. Thats been the Global Market reaction in summary. Joining us with his thoughts, head of strategy at ing Investment Management for the first part of the program today. I think everybody is surprised. Why first of all, why did we get the analysis wrong . And then why, in your opinion, have the fed not done anything . Well, i think indeed, the selfreflection on why there was such a massive consensus that they would and, clearly, they had very different opinions. Its interesting for investors. Apparently we havent really understood how the new game plan, the strategic game plan is working within the fed. And i think that also is very an important reason why they exit, because bernanke felt he was clear in communicating to the market. He clearly wasnt. Examine clearly the market didnt understand him well enough. They tried to off the announcement in may. They tried to verbally convince the market that they had still a strategic game plan of being really easy and much more easy than in the past given a certain set of economic conditions. However, by now, i think it became clear for the fed that actions or maybe no actions speak louder than words. And they needed to move. They needed to make a move in terms of actions rather than just talk. And i think thats why the buying. The problem here is that, you know, wa theyre doing is not binary. The problem here is actually markets are binary. Youre either buying or your selling. Yep. I mean, yields are either going up or theyre going down. Yeah, i know. And i think that is exactly the mentality that hes grappling with. Hes trying to fight that expectation set that as soon as he moves in a certain direction, we extrapolate the move and we start anticipating additional moves. If he reduces easing, we anticipate tightening. And thats wa hes fighting up against. You can never win that battle, can you . Well, you know, in the end, you always have to take into account. And were looking at broad Financial Conditions. If these broad Financial Conditions tighten enough, that will influence exactly what the fed said. That feeds back into their actiones and thereby hopefully caps the anticipation in the future of markets in anticipating future highs. Well, look, larry joined the course of the price surrounding that decision. In his interview of cnbc he warned of a potential bubble now in bond markets. Im surprised because i think at the same time the fed i thought was going to be tapering, the treasury was going to start reducing its issuance. What im worried about now is the fed is is going to be buying more than 100 , maybe 110 or 120 of all debt issuance. I think thats going to create more of a double issue in the future and its going to make it more difficult to unravel this. Now, there may be economic reasons for not exiting qe because of a big drop in the Participation Rate and unemployment in the economy looks fairly weak. One of the reasons for exiting may be because the risks outweigh the rewards. How real is that fear . Well, it is a realistic fear, in the sense that especially conditions outside of the u. S. Which are not part of the mandate that the fed has have become clearly very dependent on what the fed does. And we have seen that in emerging markets. Were seeing that today and yesterday evening in the response of emerging markets to these moves. There is encode a risk that a lot of these markets have had accepted credit raegz and are at risk of having some form of a bubble if this loss. Where are we now . Yellen is perceived as taken over and shes more dovish, whether thats right or wrong on. At least shes not more hawkish. I think in that sense, would he want to taper on his last meeting if thats what he thinks he has to do . I have no doubt. But he could very much do it the last time around. The other thing that was clearly worrying the fed, if we hold debate about the deficit and the debt ceiling and the political battle, which is clearly quite aggressive and there is very far away from some kind of resolution in capitol hill. And i think once we get some transparency on that or some kind of solution, the fed will be starting to ease. 2 1 2 , i think thats the biggest since the korean war. Youre with us for about an hour or more and find out what analysts think the fed move will reignite talk of currency wars. Head to our website for more on, cnbc. Com. Follow us on twitter cnbcworld. Kwens coincidentally, its also National Talk like a pirate day in the u. S. Today. We thought what would mr. Bernanke have thought about the fomcs decision if he were a pirate and had to talk like a pirate . I thought he was probably go along the lines of throw out the rum punch or more rum punch for everybody. Email us, world would it cnbc. Com, tweet cnbcwex or direct to me rosswestgate. Throw out the rum punch from the helicopter maybe. There we go. I dont think they had helicopters at the time of pirates, though. Maybe not. Or slice the main sail or something. Send us yo ur thoughts on that whatever it may be. I think we just did it because we like the idea of ben bernanke in a pirates outfit for some reason. Now, in corporate news, shares seemed to be unaffected by a court stake sale. The court has temporarily blocked the sale back to the u. S. Gamesmaker after an activisionmaker filed a lawsuit last week seeking an injunction to the transaction unless it is put to an investors vote. Stephane has been following the news and the reaction and he joins us with more. The shares are now trading lower. Youre right, its a limited reaction to this announcement yesterday. The deal is not going to be canceled. Vivendi and activision were clear about it yesterday. But it is a delay and it will delay the french group from a conglomerate to a smaller media focused on its television and media activities. What happened yesterday . The court blocked the action by vivendi. Back in july, it agreed to sell most of its stake in activision for 8. 2 billion. But last week, the main shareholder of ac at thisvision claimed that the deal could not be completed without a vote of the shareholders and thats what the court confirmed yesterday. In a statement, ac at thisvision confirmed its committed to the transition. Its exploring all the steps that it will have to take to complete the deal as quickly as possible. So probably well have very shortly a vote of the shareholders. But in the meantime, for va have beendy, its delaying the transformation process. Last week, vivendi launched an official study with how to complete the study. So until further notice. Vivendi has to focus on this activation story before Going Forward with a split of the company. Stephane, thank you very much indeed for that. Meanwhile, the release of grand theft auto v breaks records. The graphics on this are pretty intense. Take two interactive flat. Its been up 9 in the last three months. Stim to come on todays program, germanys antieu party is now securing 5 and a new poll will be on the ground in berlin. Could this scuttle merkels leadership of the eurozone crisis . Plus, is abe sold on a sales tax . Well get the latest on a sales tax as the jaep niece government continues its attempts to end deflati deflation. And emerging markets are indeed a beneficiary of Ben Bernankes decision not to taper. Plus, expectations may have been low, but oracles First Quarter earnings still better than expected. The software giant, though, did say its still cautious. Well be joined by guests who thinks the company is just being prudent. And what would you ask bernanke if you had the chance . Well be joined by greg ett who was at yesterdays press conference. Well have the inside track before 12 00 cet. Plenty more to come on todays Worldwide Exchange. [ tires screech ] [ male announcer ] 1. 21 gigawatts. Today, thats easy. Ge is revolutionizing power. Supercharging turbines with advanced hardware and innovative software. Using data predictively to help power entire cities. So the turbines of today. Will power us all. Into the future. Were got some pictures out of egypt where Security Forces are hunting 140 people on an area in the outskirts after 11 policemen were killed on an attack at a Police Station last month. Troops have been surround ago tent which is thought to be an islamic strong hold. Theyve been exchanging fire with suspected militants would killed a Senior Police officer. Well keep our eyes on that. Meanwhile, in greece, as well, violent crashes have broken out after a 34yearold rapper and activist was killed who sympathizes with the far right party. The death of pav lo v has brought widespread condemnation from leaders. On the German Campaign trail, weve been asking people for their take take on the crisis in peripheral europe. At the moment in countries like greece and portugal, we see lower growth and higher unemployment. In some countries, you see youth unemployment is more than 50 . Lower tax revenue, agencies come in and downgrade countries and the vicious cycle starts again. The wave is disastrous and it caused additional economic and social costs for taxpayer citizens. Were currently on a good path on those country thats received bailouts. Thats why its right to stay with what has been dpraed, no new debts and the necessary structural reforms. If you come to a situation where a country has huge problems and the National Government is not able to finance the rescue program, i think its better to use a instead of barely any depositors. The southern European Countries should leave the euro because we have proven not to be competitive and the alternative for them would be decreased in wages of about 30 Percentage Points. As the german relation campaign reached its final stages, they link support for the european party. They have been on the campaign trail and joins us for more in berlin. These polls showing theyve got 5 , how crucial might that be in the time count, annette . Actually, if they are getting 5 and as it looks right now, they are taking voters away from the christian democrats, at least if youre looking at the latest poll, that would mean that Angela Merkels no coalition with the cdu and the fdp would no longer make it to a majority. Which would essentially mean it will head into a situation where we have a grand coalition. But more importantly is that if the afd, the antieuro party here in germany is making it into parliament, we have a lot more antieuro debate afterwards as well as in parliament and developly they might as well be more reluctant to sign up for more bailouts in the eurozone. One of my guests early on was saying that could be one of the outcomes of the afd having seeds in the parliament. On the other side, one has to say they cant really block anything because of the ten seats or so they are not in a position to block anything because the government would then be composed with a good majority. But again and again and again the discourse might be a bit more antieuropean if we have the alternative for germany inside the parliament. The afd might get more votes now than expected through that poll because a lot of people would not diabetic rattly say theyre going to vote in favor of them, but then again could do so. Annette, stay with us. Cnbc will have full coverage of the elections tomorrow and monday from 600 cet. Weve got our team there, as you can see, ready to report on it. Valentine, as far as the eurozone crisis is concerned, a lot of people said all the Big Decisions will be delayed until after the german elections. Im wondering if anything is going to change after the german elections. For a long part, i agree with you. It doesnt mean that nothing will happen in the rest of europe or in, lets say, restructuring europe. I think some reforms will persist in the south in portugal, spain and greece. And i think a Banking Union will gradually be built. These are in the right direction. Actually, if youre saying its slow moving into the right direction, do you think the germans will subskriep or sign any deal that gives more liabilities towards brussels, i. E. The Banking Union . I rather doubt it. Whats your take here . Well, they will be very hesitant. Have become more hesitant over the last 6 to 12 months. But i think in the end they will find some form of a compromise. That is pretty clear. I think the debate currently about the Banking Union is not really that critical. It doesnt look like its falling apart anytime soon. And the overall sentiment surrounding the euro crisis is no longer a crisis, its more a gradual process which needs to be managed which will have some bumps along the road. But in the end, i think there will be some form of a Banking Union. That is what the debate will be about. And although not perfect, it will be an improvement from where we started a couple of years ago. It looks like there may be some bailout for greece, portugal. Its basically agreed upon in the leaders in the north. The dutch seem to be open to it and theyll find some sort of a solution. Thank you. Still to come, emerging markets have been the big one in the feds decision not to taper. Should the central bank consider that when deciding policy . The fed surprises everyone by not tapering bond purchases. The data confirmed our basic outlook. We gained more confident in that outlook and we believe the threepart test that i mentioned is indeed coming to pass. Then we could move later this year. Stocks in europe continue the global rally. Basic r

© 2025 Vimarsana