Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140106 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange January 6, 2014

On the high street with them falling near the stock 600. And the Prime Minister tells cnbc exclusively the muslim brother is no longer welcome in his country. Physically, they feel more and more excluded. They are in a state of denial, so they are really stuck. Hello and welcome to the first Worldwide Exchange of the week. We kick off the data out of the eurozone, we are unchanged from the estimate, 52. 1 in december. 52. 1 in november. Enjoying a fairly strong finish to 2013. So new orders in at the fastest pace since june 2011. The Employment Index hitting the 50 mark for the first time in two years, that means employers are hiring people just as many as they are lagging off. But france seems to see the flash repeated. Theres a better number out of spain as well. Euro dollar at 1. 3601 away from the number we hit weeks ago. Well get thoughts from kathy, is sturgon manager. Happy new year. Happy new year. In 2013 there were russian consultants in europe and core europe. Now its really false for expecting italy underperforming. They are underperforming on pmi today, but gdp is down 0. 1 . And looking inside gdp it is more import, less export, the worst combination. France is 40 of user gdp. Yes, the key is for all of 2013, we know that this year we are looking for exchange followed by European Exchange in may. How much of a head wind that isnt priced yet for investors into the eurozone. If marie la penn gets a big showing and gets a solid ball income the u. S. Parliamentary elections as well . I mean, they are an antieuro party, right . There is now in europe, like the tea party instead, theres the Antiestablishment Party across europe. Like what you keep or the fivestar movement, which is really antieuropean establishment and antiparty. If they dont compromise from a strong solution, it could make a policy decision much more difficult, but in europe. All right. Thats the eurozone, chinas sub sector slowing down sharply next month. Hspcs pmi down to the lowest level in two years following the official reading of 54. 6 for month low. Joining me is steven, thank you for joining us. Chinese stocks didnt do well last year down 7 . They are down 4 so far this year. How much of a concern are these pmi numbers in that . Well, the gross momentum is decelerating, i think if you look at the major drivers for growth, the investment consumption and also exports, certainly consumptionresilient,d be downside on the investment side given that cost in china is going up. In march we had the liquidity call to show that liquidity is slowing down in china. And in november of last year, the yield spike in the interbank market. And certainly the investors are heavily depending on the shipping liquidity, so thats a downside risk. In the meantime, i think that they are hoping that external demand could pick up to provide some growth for this year. Overall, this year, it could still be like last year, a stock pickers market. They are arguing that the nations growth model has run out of steam as the biggest concern this year, whats your biggest concern about china . I think the fact that the new leader needs to balance well between maintaining some minimum level growth to generate 12 million jobs, while in the meantime they are facing a lot of challenges down the road in terms of rebalancing the economy, i think from overcapacity for deleverage in the interbanking system and controlling Government Debt as well as cleaning up Financial Sector. I think it is quite a high task for them to balance well all this challenging task. Yeah, i think what is happening in china is interesting because the stock market went up 30 and china is down. In the u. S. The price for both are at 25. And therefore there should be Value Investing going into china. Having said that, the picture in china is not really improving. We have venues after venues, because news is on the surface of december, 56,000 in almost 400 cities in china. Local government could have debt of 33 of gdp. We are talking about very, very large number. And what we have seen in 2013 is the economy having the lowest Interest Rate or the most in the entire policy. So therefore its very important to add a very low cost of funding because if you start doing your income Bank Lending Rate is over seven days near 4. 5 , its probably going to go up again to us Chinese New Year and theres some structural problem meaning government funding and shadow banking that we push this Interest Rate higher, i think. Do you see that happening, steven . And clearly compared to the rest of the world there must be some value in chinese stocks, mustnt there, or not . I think its very tempting to look at the evaluation and saying china is a good buy at current level, but, in fact, if you look at the funds low, we see some moderate funds inflow in october november last year, but unfortunately the funds are living the hong kong market, the china stocks in december. Fundamentally i think not only do investors have yet to be convinced that all the reform acts could be carried out smoothly in the coming year, and even if they could carry out those reforms as planned, usually in the shortterm, that means more pens, more growth and more higher market valuetivety, which is not positive for the stock market. Steven, thank you very much for that, steven sun at hsbc. Well come back to you in a second. The Hedge Fund Manager george soros says the slowdown in china is his biggest concern. He said three years of worrying about the eurozone should not give rising to the hard landing in they china. He argues they have run out of luck. What is your biggest concern . Tweet me cnbcwex. Your biggest concern . My biggest concern is seeing 3 growth in states, which is remarkable growth, but we see in europe, except france and italy, you see in europe things are improving. In japan the growth is there, in the u. K. We see quite good growth, so i think now the challenge is for a government policymaker not to be too much complacent and continue physical confrontation and structural reform. I think that will be the key. Let us know what your biggest concern is by getting in touch with us. Global equities, the Dow Jones Stock 600, take a picture of this. Pretty even stevens, really, between advances and decline. The decline has just about had it by a short nose, but dow 600 is down a quarter of a percent. Ftse very flat in low volumes, right now its down another eight points. Well be looking at the retailers during the course of the week. Well talk to mark spencer as we dont think the gross has done particularly well, but next week has done potentially well. The ftse is up a third of 1 . Some italian shares have fallen at the open after telefonica denied a report it was looking to join telecom italia. Comm bank up 3 as they look to sell their banks in germany. The opportunity to expand that space and expand their management wealth business. And they have criticized deutsches management into the probe of possible liven manipulation. In the next few minutes well go live to germany for that story. And well keep our eyes on yields today, we have sectors from the u. K. Coming out in 18 minutes or so. The price of u. S. Money at the moment just below the 3 mark we were at over the new year period. On the currency markets, euro dollar has pulled away to 1. 36. The dollar has also pulled away from the fiveyear high or low in terms of the yen at 104. 58. And the aussie has pulled up as well while sterling hit 1. 6592, the highest, and now we are currently at 1. 64. Thats where we stand now in europe. Its time to say happy new year to the most important person we speak to out of asia every day. Sichuan is with us. Hi, li sixuan. The shanghai composite dipped early in the session. The index lost 7. 6 last year and is down nearly 4 since the start of 2014. Meanwhile, the hang seng index in hong kong lost. 60 today. Japan is also among the biggest losers hurt by the weaker dollar against the yen as you mentioned in concerns over chinas economy. The nikkei tumbled 2. 4 with mining and shipping companies seeing heavy selloffs. And down us trail ya east a half percent, but south korea gained. 40 . Heavyweight sam sung electronics added to 1 ahead of the very much anticipated Earnings Guidance tomorrow. Lets take a look at chinese banks. They were broadly weaker while beijing issued wideranging new rules to strengthen regulation on shadow banking. Meanwhile, heavyweight Property Developers also came under pressure of both the mainland and hong kong voices. This comes as authorities announced moves to streamline mortgage financing from the National Housing provident fund. So thats a quick update of asian markets. Back to you, ross. Thank you very much, li sixuan for that. Lets get a few more thoughts from yanik, whats the role of bcb going to be . Well, first of all, it could be the picture in europe, not as good as the u. K. Or in the states or as in japan. We are probably going to see a third euro, we might see negative Interest Rate. I dont really think so, but its possible. We could see the central bank in 2014. How does that show what happens to european stocks . Well, i think its a positive factor. I think what we have seen the problem was the fact that regardless of the Interest Rate set in the bcb, the rate of funding for most of company and a lot of banks and a lot of country in peripheral europe was very different. Now we see some opposition. If we look at the tenyear in italy, its been 3. 5, so all we know is that we see the cost of funding is getting a bit more emergency in the eurozone. That should be positive for bank lending to start again and company overall. A couple stocks, you say sector performed last year was big european oil and expiration companies. You said that may rebound again, why . Venue, they are quite expensive and overall in terms of price it is still very high. So i think that instead of just doing index following, i think 2014 will be a year for relative value within the universe. I think the European Company have been doing quite well. Theres been no growth of production. They have been spending a lot of money in terms of cap x. We are probably going to see a small growth of prediction, better cash flow across the industry, and therefore a lot of large Boring Companies should do very well within this group. I favor statoil because of the currency effect much better than it used to be. The investment in the sub quarter, we saw that sharply with capex, and on the other hand is the Portuguese Oil company that is moving from downstream to upstream with very good, very interesting prospects. So i think both companies could do well in 2014. We wish you to do well as well in 2014. Come back and well see how youre doing with sturgeon capital, good to see you. You can email us at worldwide cnbc. Com. The pollies of the new bank of england are doing well, according to the latest survey. Well have a report in 15 minutes time. Toyota sold more than 20,000 cars in china last month, up 20 from a year ago. But could they struggle to keep this territory as the disputes continue . Well get the latest from tokyo. Despite 2013 seeing 40 billion of outflows in gold etps, exchanged traded products, they are still the sixth biggest trader of the precious metal. Well be joined by guests to see if etps will still glitter this year. And finally, the egyptian Prime Minister says terrorism cannot be eliminated but warns the Muslim Brotherhood is no longer welcome in his country. More after this. Honestly, as much as i love this job, i plan to do a lot more. I needed a new laptop for my premed classes, something that runs office and has a keyboard. But i wanted a tablet for me, for stuff like twitter and xbox, so my downtime can be more like uptime. Thats why i got a windows 2 in 1 which does both works as a laptop and a tablet. So i can manage my crazy life, and also have a life. [ beep ] gotta go. Last month he called them a terrorist organization, now the egyptian Prime Minister told cnbc in an exclusive interview that the muslim drear hood is no longer welcome. Weve been speaking to the leader in cairo about the political uncertainty. As you probably know, this is a transitional government, and we are going through a transitional period. So when you are moving from one system to another, you can expect everything. There is no doubt that we are going through a major change, and there is a political regime, which unfortunately mismanaged and created a lot of discontent with the population to the extent of that as you know. The people took to the street in an unprecedented manifestation. We are in a situation where by there is a minority, which is trying to create all sorts of problem to the present government in order not to proceed mostly to the next stage. So what information do you have to connect the muslim drear hood to terrorism . We have evidence from many leaders of the muslim brothers who said as far as the present government is not changed, you will see all sorts of trouble, you will not be quiet, they will create all kind. So there were many declarations made by their leaders to the extent in as far as they go back to the government and will not rest. What are you doing specifically to combat the terrorist acts we have seen over the last several months . One of the most difficult things is to control terrorism because they are committing isolated action here and there. So one thing is to have precaution, to learn from previous experience, that is information, exchange of information expelled, but you cannot have a situation where there is zero terrorism. This is a period which inevitably we have to go through, but the important thing is that it is being reduced. First of all, they are losing the support of the public opinion. This is very important. I think they are starting to lose their selfconfidence. This is also important. And the government, i would say, is increasingly in command and so inevitably this will take some time. And i think what some events will have an important impact on the psychology, one of them is the next referendum. This is why i think i will not be surprised that they will increase the attempts to create this kind of uneaseness, to create this kind of fear. The egyptian Prime Minister speaking exculusively to hadley. He is joining us onset now. He talks about the security situation. Hes basically saying there he anticipates there will be more violence, he anticipates more attacks, and on the flip side you have the Muslim Brotherhood who see this as the greater struggle for political identity in the sense they are going to dig their heels in and are not going anywhere. We have seen some reports in recent days about basically theyre being targeted by the government but they are not going anywhere. So you will continue to see political instability ahead of the referendum. You talk about the referendum, just remind us how we think thats going to play out. Well, i did ask the Prime Minister what kind of outpouring of support hes expecting and hes seen the different Political Parties that nobodys come out directly in opposition to this constitutional referendum, so basically what youre going to see the referendum take place in the next week there, may be violence around this, but what hes really gunning for is president ial or parliamentary elections going on in the next six months. It doesnt matter whether the parliamentary or president ial elections go first, but its the security situation to make sure they have a plan in place to get the security situation under control. This all started in egypt partly because the cost of living went up, the cost of food, basic items, what has happened, whats happening now . In terms of the subsidies . Food prices, subsidies the problem, too, with the economic situation, i asked the Prime Minister, is there a political will to cut the subsidies a problem for the last seven years and he said absolutely not any time soon because basically if you speak to economists and activists, they say this government is very afraid of the street. If they go after subsidies, there will be a reaction in terms of protest and that would add fuel to the fire, so to speak. So in terms of subsidies, he has a five to sevenyear plan in place and follow along as we get closer to the president ial and parliamentary elections, but no plan to control subsidies. Thank you for joining us. In Cambodia Police have made their first arrest under a new ban on public protests. Five activists calling for the return of those in police. Four people were dead and dozens more injured. Antigovernment protesters planned off their protest for sunday following the crackdown. In thailand thousands of antigovernment protesters marched through the streets of bangkok yesterday hoping to drum up support for the next rally monday to shut down much of the city. Protesters are about to stop the february 2nd election and are putting pressure on the Prime Minister to step down. Well, were going to get subsidy pmi data out of the u. K. In a few moments time. Then well talk about the Risk Appetite back in british boardrooms with a majority of finance chiefs saying now is the time to expand. Well speak about the report and get the full cost for 51 in line for prior falling slightly from that level. 58. 8 in december from novembers 60. The lowest since june. And the u. K. Services component up to 30. 5. The composite pmi is down to 59. 5 in december from novembers 60. 4. Thats the lowest since july. Still a very strong number, though. And markets suggest this pmi points to Fourth Quarter gdp growth above 8 quarter on quarter. And therefore 2013 growth of 1. 9 year on year. So u. K. Subsidies pmi 50. 8 in december from novembers 60. And we thought it would stay around 60. Its still a strong number, but generally the december activity just slowed a bit. Sterling dollar is at the low point for the session. Well have more rea

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