Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140207 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange February 7, 2014

Ecbs unlimited bondbuying program. And the olympic flame arrived in sochi ahead of tonights ceremony. Many leaders will not be turning up at the 2014 olympics. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. The olympics get its amazing to think the olympics are under way. It seems to far in the future. Yeah. And yanick node is with us. Come in, come in. What did you say . Im going there next week. Are you . Yes. Fantastic. Are you competing . No, no, im not competing. Well talk to you about that. More from him in a few moments time. Plenty of other things coming up on this show. A tough week for social networking stocks, right . Disappointing outlook from linkedin sent shares lower after hour after twitter lost a quarter of its value on thursdays session. What to expect from indias latest gdp reading where growth is expected to accelerate. Purchase, telecoms. Purchase . Well find out. The latest accepting payments in bit coins. Well be in chicago later in the show to find out with the companys ceo and find out why hes betting on the companys Virtual Currency. And the most powerful businesswoman list. Is she being paid a lot less than her male predecessor . Well dig into that story a little later on. Yeah. Well drive it through for you. First its friday. And the month of january jobs report is due. Forecast calling for a rise in nonfarm payrolls of 189 those. But with the impact of the bad weather expected to cloud the reading, will we get any clear idea of the health of the u. S. Economy . Yannick is with us from sturgeon capital. Id rather talk about the olympics, actually, but well come on to that. How much stall are we going to set by the u. S. Economic data at the moment . Right now, the want to have some clear indication about the threat of about the economy. Because whats happened at the beginning of the year, we need to have some clear ammunition. Having said that, this number will be difficult to get and difficult to read because of a lot of different factors. The fact that the unemployment started in january, and you have the all in all, a very difficult number to predict. Is that not the point . Lets not bother with it. Direction. The direction that were heading in rather than one individual data point. The American Economy in the last few years has been creating Something Like 173,000, 175,000 job every month. It will be interesting to see this number as well as private employment. What is worth the markets, a good number or a bad number . I dont forecast at least in the u. S. An increase of Interest Rates. So i dont think there will be even as far as the commitment, you really should not have a greater impact in terms of the future. It is extraordinary looking at the yield curve, 3. 75 . In europe, we were 1 lower at least for the bund. For now. Ars lore middle, the worlds biggest steelmaker is impressing investors with its outlook. Yannick, i think you think this is one of the top in the sector. Explain why. We think the economy will grow about more than 3 . We start to see some signs in the eurozone will grow. Japan is growing. All in all, ars lore milths is 47 in the states and it will be the company in the steel industrial that will benefit the most. How much does it matter what will happen with the chinese industry or not . The chinese industry is a big industry. Its a very inefficient industry and its a very industry. We saw some signs that the government wanted to tackle the problem, a less increase of prediction in china in order not to police as much as before. And, therefore, it should be beneficial for arcelor. Longterm costs, currency effects, all these things come into play, as well. Do you just get the sense that theyll cope with those . Domestically, we could see a buyer of steel just holding up for softer price. But as long as the steel prices stay strong and so far its not too bad, arcelor should be okay. If you look at the balance sheet, i think there is a prediction of 5. 2 billion euro in terms of debt. All in all, slowly as long as they dont add additional investment, i think they should be able to they did downgrade the forecast to china and brazil. Were going to quickly move on to another story. Germanys Constitutional Court has deferred the complaint about the ecbs Bond Buying Program to the European Courts. The news sending the euro lower in trading this morning. Around 40 points there. Not particularly good news, but still weighing on the euro this morning. Annette joins uses now with more details. Is this a get out of jail card for them . Are they not going to make a decision on this or pass it over to somebody elses . Yeah, well, thats exactly it. The Constitutional Court is saying they cant really be responsible for the whole phase of the eurozone by a ruling which they sense theyre doing. So theyre pushing it on to the European Court. But their opinion is quite theyre saying they see substantial reasons that the omc Program Exceeds the ecb mandate and infringes a ban on funding of the Member States. Six of the eight judges of the Constitutional Court were against or at least had substantial skepticism against the omt program of the ecb. And only two were saying we shouldnt have ruled at all. Annette, the Constitutional Court, as expected, dont like the idea of this against the idea. They think the ecb is extending its mandate. Since the European Court arent going to be so crucial in stabilizing the eurozone, are they . Why isnt the euro rallying here . I think there is substantial concern that, as well, the European Court will be looking at the treaty than the treaty is actually well, it has to be everything that the ecb is doing has to be in line with the treaty. Monetary financing of Member States is banned. Whether those stretches now come to do conclusion that the omt is not monetary financing or Something Else is still really up in the air and we cant really know. So far, the Constitutional Court in germany, which is a very, very influential legal organ here in germany, but probably has, as well, a sort of Agenda Setting role for other Member States is having substantial concerns. And that is to add comes only one day after ecbs president mario draghi is saying we havent done any monetary financing and theyre not planning to do so. With that, back to you. Thanks, annette. Great to talk to you. Thanks, annette. Thanks, jules. So just over an hour and ten minutes into the trading day in europe, we are weighted to the up site, 6 3 advancers outpacing decliners. The ftse 100 was up 100 points yesterday. The italian spanish market was up nearly 2 . This morning, the ftse is actually as is the xetra dax. The cac 40 is down 0. 1 as is ftse mib. Weve been talking about arcelormittal. Forecast in consumption slowdown growth in china and brazil, but improvement in the eu. Meanwhile, finish mining auto companies, outotec, down 8. 4 today. Weaker than expected Fourth Quarter operating profits. Its forecasting a decline in sales this year. Staff all in all is fairley flat. Its dropped the Production Target and its turning attention to reigning in spending. Speaking first to cnbc, the ceo held that the firm would spend 5 billion less than it had planned in the next three years. Oil and gas and in 2013, we have a very strong space. So we can make harder choices and that will increase the return on the project and the return to the shareholders. Finally, on some of the individual stocks, Air France Klm up welcoming traffic up. Up 3. 6 year on year in january driven by growth en route to america. How does that impact where we are with the sectors. This is where we stand. Insurance banks, construction technology, oil and gas a little lower today. Best performance, basic resources up 1 . Copper on call for its best weekly gain of the year today. Also not hurting too much. Now, as far as ash ya is concerned, we had china back today after their break from the lunar year. The nikkei doing very well. The dow up 1 for the first time this year. Weve had the best day of the year so far, across the major u. S. Indices. The hang seng is up about 1 . The s p 500 up 0. 6 , as well. Bond markets, we talked about u. S. Treasuries down 2. 7 on monday. The yield, 2. 7 is where we stand ahead of the employment report a little bit later. And on the currency markets with, euro dollar, got up to 1. 3619 on thursday after plumbing that 1. 347. 0 twomonth low. Weve just come back, 1. 3563 the Constitutional Court passing over the decision on the omt to the European Court. Dollar yen, 102. 03. Cable pretty steady at 1. 6326. Jules. Thanks, ross. China is back from its new year break having managed to escape from the turbulent trading weve seen this week. Come the key underperformers in january, is it now time to buy . Find out after the break. Could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Mmmhmmm. Everybody knows that. Well, did you know that old macdonald was a really bad speller . Your word is. Cow. Cow. Cow. C. O. W. E. I. E. I. O. [buzzer] dangnabbit. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. Some Brokerage Firms are but way too many arent. Why . Because selling their funds makes them more money. Which makes you wonder. Isnt that a conflict . Search proprietary mutual funds. Yikes then go to e trade. Weve got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. Were in the business of finding the right investments for you. E trade. Less for us, more for you. The funds prospectus contains its investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and other Important Information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. For a current prospectus visit www. Etrade. Com mutualfunds. Welcome back to worldwide exchang exchange. Pmi dipped to 53. 7 in january, the lowest level in nearly 2 1 2 years. Helen from Goldman Sachs joins us now. Helen, we keep looking at these data points. We keep saying its the weakest level weve seen for x number of years. But we know this adjustment is taking place. The market corrected quite sharply this year, but you say we should be buying on dips. Tell us why. Thats right. You know, i think if you look at the china market over the past few years, its what we would call a fat and flat market. In other words, theres some significant volatility up and downward moves of 20 , 30 , and thats largely been driven, particularly recent by by some of the cyclical moves in the economy. Last june, for example, people were very worried about liquidity. That was the culprit in december, as well. But looking forward, we think some of these recent unfavorable data points may be transitory. The dm, external demand picture, is still reasonably good. Its likely to lift exports to make a greater contribution this year. And we dont think that policymakers are likely to take any extreme drastic measures to push the economy into a hard landing. And moreover, valuations are at the end of that historical range. Is better data points going to be enough, though, if we look at the concerns over the trust product, the concerns of debt of the local government level, we think theyre trying to deleverage, at the same time allowing the term structure of Interest Rates to rise. Do they have ultimate control of this . Well, youre right. You know, i think theres a differentiation between cyclical, you know, trading opportunity for the market and a multi year bull market. We dont know who the had makings for the latter yet, but we think were well positioned in terms of a cyclical upturn in the market. Now, resolving some of these issues that you mentioned are very much going to take many, many years of very delicate and focused attention. Policymakers pushing forward on the reforms when they feel like the cyclical picture can support it and gently backing up a little bit or putting things on pause when they feel like the cyclical picture is a bit more fragile. So i think that will be a gradual process and thats not going to give us a situation where, you know, very macro sensitive sectors like banks can have a huge rerating for the near term. But nonetheless, we think there are other types of reform that can advance even in absence of a very robust cyclical picture. Social safety net related, financial innovation related, soe reforms, reforms of various Industries Like the railroads, etcetera. And those types of reform progress will continue to be catalyst for the latter part of this year, as well. Regarding banks, we have seen there is a big fight for the deposit. Theres the large Internet Companies, baidu, are trying to get past that deposit. Do you think the trend is continuing . Very much so. I think effectively Interest Rate regulation happening in front of our eyes without official Interest Rate deregulation on the positive side. Its still a relatively small percentage of the overall base of deposits in china. But its certainly becoming a bigger and bigger proportion of the overall flow. Now, this is structurally the direction that policymakers do want to see. But of course, sufficient regulation and safety protections have to be put in place to ensure that the incremental flow doesnt come in in a way that, for example, relies on things like implicit guarantees. That may be their medium to the longer term. So its a structural trend, but one that needs to be regularly populated. In japan, we expect the Prime Minister there to continue to strengthen japans security posture. Square the relationship between the relationship between japan and chinas numbers and risk measurement and whether we could see any trade impact throughout 2014. Thats a great question. I think its something that people have been watching very closely over the last year, year and a half. In terms of an earnings and growth impact, weve actually done some analyses that show that generally speaking, china and japans export relationship isnt one of direct head on competition as much as, you know, japans relationship with korea or taiwan may be. We think overall the earnings and growth impacts will be relatively limited. But, of course, if things with japan continue to intensify in an unfavorable direction, then there could be more valuation related impacts on both sides and specific to china equities, for example, you know, sectors like auto or machinery may have more down side exposure. Really interesting. Helen zhu, thank you for chatting with us. The ecb has made a formal response to the Constitutional Courts ruling in germany. Its reiterated that the omt program does fall within its mandate and theyre going to hand it over to the eu court to decide on its validity or not. So the german Court Neither said whether it was within the constitution or not. As sales in vehicles accelerated 18 in january and expects the trend to continue to year. And a rare display of unity in the u. S. Senate. Its hard to believe. The chamber at voted 960 to approve the nom nation of max bachus as americas next ambassador to china. The democratic senator from montana has helped steer trade policy with beijing and promises to be firm but fair during his confirmation hearing next week. Yannick, talk to me about your outlook on china. I think overall, china have to move away from having growth by investing into a we have to think that the government will have everything under control, in terms of banking, investment or local government. But theres a lot of moving part. The biggest moving part is 3. 5 trillion worth of fx reserves they can use if they need to, surely. Yes. But all in all, the surplus is not there any more. The situation is not fully incurred. The economy is still growing, but theres a lot of challenges, i think, in the next few months. Yeah. An interesting look at the challenge, 2013 was the year of the the year of the central bank. Does that mean its the year of currencies . Yes. Im pulling a i can see emerging market currencies with all sorts of things Partnership Look at euro dollar and i think, they cant get out of the range between 1. 34 and right. The courts weve been between 1. 32 and 1. 40 now for i dont think it will i hope it will not happen. But if in the end we find out that unconstitutionally we will not be able to do it we know thats not going to happen. Theyre not going to pull the rug from the very thing that has ensured that there was no breakup of the eurozone, are they . Theyre not that stupid. The german Constitutional Court is very independent they passed it over. Passed the buck. They were supposed to vote on this on the 21st of january. And they keep refusing to do it because theyre afraid. They dont want to be responsible for putting fresh pressures on that might break the euro, right . The eu come back to the currencies, though. How are they going to drive it for investors . I think in 2014 we have seen a shocking move in emerging market currencies. Obviously, the fragile five current account deficit and quite a lot of ip flexion. So you will see the currency starting to more value. Its a good thing overall for the emerging market. Everything is saying the developed markets are going to decouple from emerging markets. Youre talking about an isolated market in emerging markets. Type. But what about the rest of the world . Thats not still the driver, is it . Central banks are not still on the hot seat. Yes. We think, for example, in europe and japan, the two, euro, ecb and the bank of japan will be the most Economic Central Bank in europe in the world. Therefore, we should see the euro being weakened. We don

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