Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140212 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange February 12, 2014

Validity of those numbers. And profit, the latest oil major to suffer from weakness in its refining business. The shares trade higher on the dividend hike. Well bring you an exclusive interview with the ceo. Sgra youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you business new from around the globe. Very good morning to you, everybody. Its going to be a lot more about central bankers yesterday after we heard from Janet Bernanke yesterday. Janet bernanke, nice. No . Ben yellen . Lets keep to first names. But youre right, continuity is the name of the game, isnt it . Or maybe not as far as mark carney is concerned. Wow, very good question. What is he going to do today . Hell obviously say, look, the Unemployment Rate is no longer what we thought it was. He might focus on inflation. The simple message, Interest Rates are going to stay. Dont worry exactly. No one cares about all the thresholds and complicated stuff. Does he make it more complicated by introducing new thresholds and new things to focus on or does he do what the market is getting right now, anyway . Draghi is also speaking. Who is he speaking to . Hes speaking at 3 00 p. M. Today. And hes talking about policy post crisis or where we are as far as the crisis is concerned. What crisis . Weve moved beyond in europe. Now, on todays show, Procter Gamble hits investors with a profit warning. Well be taking a look at how the corporates are being hit in the developing economy. Flying high, kettle airways expects to receive the first deliver of new airbus fleet. The carriers ceo is down at the Singapores Air show. And ferrari gears up for the big reveal. Its latest california model. We look at what can be expected, coming up later. All right. Just over an hour into the trading day in europe. Take a look at the wall. Stocks higher around about 7 2 on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 at the moment. And we had gains up yesterday. Ftse 100 up 41 points. The dow had the best win streak since 2012. This morning, the ftse up another 11 points. The xetra dax is up 0. 6 . The cac 40 up 0. 5 and the ftse mib up 0. 4 , as well. Societe generale up in the quarter after a fall in the writedown on the acquisition of assets. Speaking to cnbc, the bank avenue deputy ceo said he welcomed the forthcoming European Bank checks. We consider that this process is a key process to implement the credibility of the European Banking union. So its a very positive thing, in our view. Investors raising a glass to heineken today. The Company Forecasting an improvement in performance in the coming year driven by predicted bump in beer sales in africa and asia. The weak emc currency could impact revenue. Very difficult to predict how these currencies will behave. Most of these emerging markets will continue to grow because the underlying factors of the high rate, strong demographics and Economic Development will continue in a number of these companies. Shares in morrison continue, up 3. 3 . And Smurfit Kappa reported a 911 surge in Fourth Quarter pretax profit. In another first on cnbc interview, the ceo said he still Sees Opportunities in emerging markets despite the recent fall. We need to be careful about the emerging markets. Theyre not homogeno on us, first of all. But a lot of the emerging markets are around devaluing currencies. Devaluing currencies makes the domestic business much more competitive. So we continue to see opportunities to both volumize and pricingwise. With the quarterly Inflation Report coming out in an hour and a half, 10 30 london time, we keep our eyes on gilt yields. Treshy yields, 2. 73 . On the currency markets, the u. S. Dollar is just above a twoweek low at the moment. Dollar yen, 102. 47. Euro dollar, 1. 3637. 11. 3683 was with the high on tuesday. The aussie still doing very well. Up at a onemonth high around 90. 60 at the moment. Weve been helped along by the trade data in china. Sterling, of course, well keep our eyes on that. 1. 6667 was the threeweek peak we hit last month. Japans close today, all the focus on that trade data out of china. Sixuan has the Market Reaction to all of that. Thank you, ross, for that. After three days of gains, china markets continue to gain ground. The countrys exports grew at a stronger than expected pace in january. In other markets, also mostly higher, taking positive cues from wall street. The nikkei 225 actually back from yesterdays holiday, ending higher by 0. 2 . We saw a plunge in japans orders, m2 money supply jumped 4. 4 on year in january topping forecasts. And over in australia, the asx 200 gained over 11 despite Consumer Confidence declining on the home front. The china trade data gave miners a shot in the arm and auss mineral jumped despite announcing a net loss for 2013. Among the movers in china, t tinjin limit up by 10 . Thanks, sixuan. Great to hear your update this morning. Lets take a closer look at the very strong chinese data data figures. The trade data surplus in january rose, exports climbed 10. 6 , smashing expectations by more than five folds while imports surged to a sixmonth high. Joining us now, jothomas burn. We were seeing expectations skewed significantly lower thanks to base effect here. But even when you take account of those, these fingers are very strong. Theres reasons to be optimistic here, arent there . Well, they are strong. I think the best explanation is that Global Economic momentum remains firm or perhaps its firming further. But, you know, the improvement in exports is broad based, both for markets and also the main key products. The imports, though, were a true commodity story, werent they . Iron ore up 10 year on year. Copper prices, 40 . Yeah. Its incredible. Is that a great story, too, for broader demand . Well, it seems to be that way in china. The iron ore exports in particular. The steel mills will be introducing. The investment will still be relatively large. Theres still plenty of infrastructure to build in china. Thomas, weve always been worried about trade data and overpricing. Do you still have those . I think its more than what we saw happen earlier last year for a number of on reasons. One, the source of the overinvoicing in early 2013 was hong kong and the spesh economic zones. To hong kong, the exports actually fell. So the strong markets were the u. S. , japan, even the european union. Whats the risk of a payback in february . The first two months were always choppy because of the spring festival, the lunar new year. There could be some slippage in february. Come early march, thats when you really put the two months owing and then youll have a better picture, i think. We all will. What sort of growth are you expecting this year . What sort of rates might we see the next five years . Well, moodys, were using a range of 7 to 8 for this year and next year. Probably at the lower end of the range. In march, the National Peoples congress will announce the growth target. Last year, they hit the growth target. It seemed most xhen taters are expecting a 7. 5 growth target. But over the next five years, i would say that growth, of course well, growth will probably moderate. As the investment rate comes down. There is not much more consumption can do. Consumption is growth on that trend. Household incomes have been growing for a long time, actually, pretty strongly. So the big dynamic and the uncertainties will be how fast will be or how steep will be the deceleration in growth fixed Capital Formation or investment in china. And then to what extent can net exports take up some of that slack. But were thinking somewhere near 7 . If it goes under that, i dont think thats any major concern for the longterm health of the chinese economy. Thomas, thanks for that. Good to see you. Stateside, the u. S. House voted to extend the debt ceiling until next march without any conditions. The vote relied almost entirely on democrats in republicanheld houses. Republican leaders had considered adding several attachments such as an approval for the Keystone Pipeline. But the bill didnt have enough votes spop the move now goes on to the senate to wrap up by later this week. Februarys chairman yellen saying yesterday that emerging markets not going to be a focus and sticking to the line as far as bernanke was concerned. She said the International Fallout of the central bank facing plans would be well warned. Capital markets are global and the monetary policies of any country affect other countries in such a world. But we have been very clear at the outset that we initiated our program of asset purchases and an accommodative Monetary Policy to pursue the goals that congress has decided the Federal Reserve, namely supporting Economic Growth and employment in the consex of price stability. Plenty more to come on that. Also still to come, ireland, were back in business. Well get over to steve in dublin right after this. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. Open to innovation. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. What is this place . Where are we . This is where we bring together the Fastest Internet and the best in entertainment. We call it the x1 entertainment operating system. It looks like the future we must have encountered a temporal vortex. Further analytics are necessary. Beam us up. Thats my phone. Hey. [ female announcer ] the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. Tv and internet together like never before. Qatar airways is expecting to get its a350 airbus ahead of schedule. Speaking at the Singapore Air show, the ceo said the aircraft are expected to be delivered in december of this year but could come a few months earlier. Qatar airways has ordered 80 of the wide bodied plane. Sri is at the air show and joins us live from there. We were talking to airbus just after that interview with the ceo of qatar. One of their executives on the marketing and sales side was telling us that the delivery could be even made before the december time frame. So all systems go, despite these challenging economic circumstances. The sense ive been getting from executives throughout this air show here in singapore is that yes, the Economic Conditions are challenging. Yes, there is pressure on yields because of competition and things like currency fluctuations as even a creeping sense of overcapacity. But broadly, people are very bullish here. A little bit too bullish, some might say, given the overcapacity that could be building in the rcc section. Another issue is the volatility in the International Oil price and in fuel prices, as well. That doesnt hasnt gone away. The ceo of Qatar Airlines was talking about that. And he was talking about the delivery schedule for some of the new aircraft. This is what he told us. The very clear time frame is that we will receive our first aircraft in december of this year. Airbus is very advanced in their program and they very confident that they will get certifications in time to gives our aircraft deliveries. You dont see foresee any delays . I dont. They had they have had the opportunity to learn so much from the issues that the 787 faced and they have been proactive in making sure that they dont face those same problems, even though the aircraft is exactly not the same as the dreamliner when you compare it to the systems in the airplane. And were on the 787 dreamliner right now. How has it been flying . Its been flying very well. Weve been very fortunate to have minimum problems with this airplane. But we expected problems, especially since a new Aircraft Program will always have problem. That doesnt mean airbus 350 will not have. Its easy to test an airplane. But when it comes into Passenger Service and airline service, then you face problems that you never envisioned in the beginning. 88 350s are on order. Do you have plans to buy more . 80 350s. Yes, we have orders for two more planes. There is very high probability that we will order additional 350 aircraft. How many how many more . Cannot tell you. So the orders continue to look very strong and very firm. But the difficult is that you make these orders ten years in advance, sometimes very difficult to time how the economic picture will look in a decades time, of course, but the pressure is on a lot of these carrierer to upgrade and build capacity because the growth in this part of the world is still very strong. But you can never really predict what the economy look like in that prd of time. Back to you, julia. Its a tough one. Well have to keep working on it. Now, focus is turning to another central bank. Its expected to feature an overhaul of carney and guidance. The governor is under pressure to make the new position clear to the market. Helia, his position is clear to the market, isnt it . They expect rates to rise in the middle half of next year. What does he actually have to do here . The markets get it, dont they . Well, im not sure the markets ever really got it. Possibly the economy got it. They know the bank of england is committed to keeps rates low. And it seems like yesterday, just six months ago, mark carney came in with his flagship policy of Forward Guidance. But many say he made a mistake when he pegged that to unemployment. Like weve seen in the u. S. , unemployment has fallen fast and we are like whiskers away from that threshold, that 7 unemployment threshold. So what do you do . Hes told us that today hes going to update guidance. Does that mean he abandons it . Does that mean were going to have a does he said well look at wider Economic Indicators . Or will he look at Something Like a time contingent . Its possible that he does say to the market, look, we are going to keep rates on hold until 2015 unless you get one of three knockouts, whether thats Financial Stability risk, whether thats going to be medium term inflation, although obviously we are hitting our inflation target for the first time in years or you get wage inflati inflation, which we havent seen in the uk. Because the question on unemployment is there is still a huge completion in terms of productivity. So the unemployment number that were seeing is very low compared to where we are in precrisis levels. Because theres still a lot of slack in the economy. At the end of today, we should be slightly clearer on where the bank of england wants to take us and what kind of guidance it will be. And it will be for the markets to judge whether mark carneys policy has been a failure or a very clever way of keeping the mpc in check and making sure that every month we dont have a debate about whether rates rises. So well see about that. Back to you, julia. Actually, ill take it, helia. It will be interesting, obviously, we get that growth and inflation target, well see how much they get changed. Do you think in the conference discussion, theyre going ask about how many you get from the Housing Market and potential leavers to try and cause that, if that gets out of hand . Yeah, i think the housing bubble is something that we have kept on asking the governor about. We know that bank of england is concerned about a potential bubble. They say they have those checks in place. And help to buy, obviously, a key policy for the government. And lots of people have been critical about whether the bank of england is too close with the treasury and making sure that policy goes through. But the governor has been very firm in saying that they are putting in the checks and one of those things is going to be this effective Interest Rate. Making sure that people applying keep could they afford that . Thats one of the key policies. But well see. Well have an update later today. Yeah, we will. Catch you later. Thanks for that. Well have the bank of englands Inflation Report at 11 30 cet. Keep it simple stupid, thats the principal. Good looking fellow. No, i am. I am. Publish a rate path. Now, ahead of that, you can click on cnbc. Com to read what some of the countrys leading Economic Experts have been telling us about todays report. Follow us on twitter cnbcworld. The government says its banks will past european stress tests this year. A rebound in Property Price less go a long way to restoring the banks Balance Sheet. At the same time, ireland says its halfway towards a target of raising 8 billion euros for investors in the countrys debt. Danny mccoy, the ceo of the business, is a says he believes the economy is on a solid upswing. Has been since 2009. We saw the turn around in the real economy 2009. So on even before the troika arrived here. The Business Unit had adjusted our unit labor costs. We were having record years for exports this year. Weve seen the turn around. And the domestic economy is coming good, as well. Weve seen employment growth. Steve is there, as well, and joins us now. When he says look, Property Prices are recovering, steve, it makes me think about the whole debate around mark to market. You can do things for a long time and hope they come back your way. Yeah. You and i spend far too much time looking at property websites. We get how this works. But were very aware about the fact that theres an awful lot of zombie loans both to developers indeed on the books. Would you believe despite this re

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