Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140423 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange April 23, 2014

Big miss. Well speak to the cnbc. Ukraines government says it will act to eliminate militant groups in the east of the country in the coming days. Youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Thanks for joining us today. Let me just dive in to some eurozone flash pmi numbers just crossing currently. The flash number is at 53. 3 in the month of april. This is slightly higher than forecast. The markets expectation about 53. 1. This is also slightly firmer than the march reading back at 53. We are seeing a slight improvement in the right direction. The instant reaction in euro dollar has been a dip and then positive again, up 0. 2 on session. 138. 29 the current level. Diving into the numbers on the services side, the flash number at 53. 1. This is better than forecast at 52. 5 was the level the market had expected. Also just on the manufacturing print, 53. 1 was forecast but that number coming in at 53. 3 as i mentioned in april. Numbers better than expected. This come on the back of what was a mixed read when you take a lack at how the april numbers were for france, the flash number 50. 5 showing expansion but it was worse than the market anticipated. The weaker numbers coming through on two sides, both manufacturing and services. Completely different story in the german numbers where the flash estimate was very strong, 5. 3. It was higher than expected, also up from march. The level we saw in manufacturing and services exceeding expectations. Divide again germany showing improvement, france still lagging behind. Elsewhere, chinas Manufacturing Activity contracted for a fourth straight month according to hsbc. The flash market hsbc china pmi came in at 48. 3 but the rating showed a slight improvement. Lets go out to Sri Jegarajah. Lets talk about the pmis. They did hint at some stability. There was modest improvement on the headline in april, 48. 3 as you mentioned versus 48 in the prior month. It looks as though the Greater China market simply on buying these numbers, especially when you look at the devil is in the details. You consider that. Because a lot of the subindices, especially the employment numbers, well, they were quite negative or truth be told. Shanghai composite in negative territory with the hang seng even worse, down by almost 1 . This is stark market in terms of the disparities. Nikkei 225 powering ahead, despite the fact that, arguably, theres caution in these markets with the onset of Japanese Corporate enings. Were yet to hit the full stride. This is going to be a big test for abonomics. Theyll be analyzing those corporate numbers. Nikkei 225 seems comfortable with the level chance 14,500. It seems to be comfortable with the dollar yen. Back to china quickly, these are the flash hsbc pmi estimates we got for the month of april. Next week willing critical. We get the official number. Well be looking for confirm agency as to whether we continue to see this selfinduced slowdown or whether it is more material or whether its more significant than that. And whether those pundits who are warning of the hard landing are vindicated. Lets set that aside for now, very quickly talking about the s p asx 200. This was somewhat of a surprise. It undershot expectations. The market was looking for quite a hot figure. We got one thats significantly underwhelmed. Price pressure seemed to be, relatively speaking, under control in q1. The the aussie dollar got absolutely hammered. We saw a drop, a quite precipitous one in fact, of 1 against the green back which took the aussie well below 93. That was a driver on the broader mark he as well, what the currency was doing. Thats how we stack up in a fairly mixed day, all things considered. Still watching that pmi next week could be quite important. Thats when we get the official numbers. Thanks very much. Sri jegarajah joining us out of sng pore. Joining us now to discuss the chinese numbers are frazier howie. Frazier, great to have you with us. 48. 3. In april, this number still below the key 50 handle. What is this telling us about the chinese economy. Any sensible investor knows china is in a bit of a rut and things are not improving fast. Even when you have a good couple months, its short lived. China has structural problems its working through. Some commentators felt the pace of decline started to abate and these numbers showed a hint of stabilization. Did you see that in the figures today . Im not entirely sure. The danger is with china. We have the worlds second largest economy, 1. 3 billion people were looking at the decimal point move on 420 manufacturers. We simply cannot get enough of clarity, i think maybe too much into a 0. 1 or 0. 2 difference. Its precipitously falling which is great. Were in a bit of a rut. Trust products are up 8 in t m terms of fishing. Chinese government are trying to do everything to get it going. Thats a good point, whether its down to monetary or fiscal policy. The market is looking for a stimulus. We had the moves to catch the triple r, for some of the rural banks. Theres been some hope that rrr can be extended to other banks. You have to wonder whether theres more room or stimulus on the credit front for china. They have a horrible problem. I would hate to be the chinese leadership. The problem is very much one of their own making. But they have a horrible problem that they cant bring out too much stimulus for fear of basically propping up bubbles. And yet, at the same time, they do worry a lot about growth slowing too much. I think one of the comments that sri made, of course, the employment indices within the pmi are very weak. Thats always a worry. Certainly the Chinese Governments always very weary of mass unemployment and rising unemployment. Some reflect in the new orders as well as the output moderating. The unusual equation is theyve already cleared the decks from the wild weather state side. If youre looking at the Global Recovery story, this should be helping out the chinese figures. Its not playing out that way if you take a look at the data today. Is this rebalancing in china thats stopping the normal bounce back in the picture. I think its people are not prepared for how severe the slowdown has been. Obviously stronger developed markets do help china but as you can see, the chinese economy still isnt responding that much. Thats because its telling you the domestic economy isnt necessarily that strong in china, which many people have talked about for a while. When you talk about growth being 7. 4, 7. 2 or 7. 3 . Ultimately thats a political figure. The Chinese Government will not announce growth under 7 for political reasons. The real economy is probably much harder. You ask if theres a hard landing. I think thats already happened for Small Businesses in china. Thanks for talking to us. Lets get you up to speed with the european markets trading this morning. A bit of a softer picture across the board. The ftse holing on to slim gains. Selling for the german stock market and the cac which has been led lower. Seeing green, trying to make it on to the board, the italian stock market, a fairly weak picture this morning. This comes on back of what was a strong session for european stocks yesterday. Some of the top movers out there, lets move on to the earnings picture. Because ab foods at the top of the stocks 600. They met with a 1 rise in first half profit and major fall in its sugar business was offset by progress in its grocery business. Primark, it now plans to take state side. Meantime, investors expressing disappointment in ericssons q1 earnings. The mobile telecom equipmentmaker blamed a fall in sales but insisted new contracts will lift profits in the Second Quarter. And dont forget, well be joined by the ceo of ericsson, hans vestberg. We are seeing a selloff in s n scania stock. The decision leaves the deal in doubt. Finally, you can see shares on the arm are initially trading to downside as well, this despite the chip designer posting a rise in First Quarter profits. It says it sees a pickup in the Smartphone Market in the second half of the year. And on bond markets, quick check on how european yields are performing. We have easily 3. 1 . Weve got bunds softening up the yield 1. 5 , cles to that. Treasuries, a bit of a tick higher, 3. 72 . Well see whether that moves around on some of the dialogue from the mpc. Weve seen stable dollar action today, the Australian Dollar has been the exception after the big drop in the cpi numbers today, changing expectations for an Interest Rate hike in australia later this year. 9278. Euro bouncing a bit on the back of the numbers out this morning. Joining us now, nick nelson, head of Global Equity strategy at ubs. Nick, welcome, nice to see you. Earnings have been interesting. Ab foods, lets start out with a positive one. Big spike in the stock price. The u. S. Market getting the brown bags with the blue primark. Its that part of the business rather than the sugar business that seems to drive the price. Weve moved to the stage in the cycle where it will separate the winners and the losers. Its about delivering the earnings now. Companies that deliver the earnings, like weve seen with ab foods will get the share price response. Those that mitt will get penalized by investors. You have to show investors of the companies that they can generate earnings growth. Is this where the growth is in thine earnings or do we have europe supporting the numbers. France is weaker, germany a bit stronger. If you look at europe, we think it will grow for the first time in four years. The u. S. Is driving the global economy. We think the u. S. Grows at 3 this year, above consensus. Emerging markets will continue to be quite weak. We were hearing about the chinese pmis there. Its developed markets, the u. S. , uk and europe. The light is on for activity in the pharma seconder. As we mentioned with ab foods and this expansion state side, whether it is organic growth or through an acquisition, ceos are going after growth. This tells you that the stock market has to trade higher from here, doesnt it . I think so. Historically, companies have been getting share buy backs. A lot of that is because they are not convinced a recovery is coming through. Now would be a good time to do m a, capex and to expand overseas. It Shows Confidence coming through. You talk about the brutal sector stock, the rotation out there which well come to in just a little bit. Youre staying with us for the show. Ericsson disappoints investors with First Quarter numbers, suffering from weak demand in north america and japan. Well cross over to stockholm to speak to the ceo on a first on cnbc. Well cross out to japan later on. Plus, could the bank of englands policymakers be moving closer to an Interest Rate hike . Well have the minutes from their last meeting in around 15 minutes time. And yum brands beats the street thanks to a new add campaign and menu in china. Will investors eat up the stock when the investment opens state side . Well ask a market analyst. [ banker ] sydney needed some Financial Guidance so she could take her dream to the next level. So we talked about her options. Her valuable assets were staying. And selling her car wouldnt fly. We helped sydney manage her debt and prioritize her goals, so she could really turn up the volume on her dreams today. And tomorrow. So lets see what we can do about that. Remodel. Motorcycle. [ female announcer ] some questions take more than a bank. They take a banker. Make a my financial priorities appointment today. Because when people talk, great things happen. Youre watching worldwide exchange. Ukraines acting president has called for the countrys government to relaunch an offensive against prorussian separatists. This after a politician from his own party was found dead with apparent signs of torture. The president said the politician had been abducted by terrorists. Meanwhile, russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the kremlin is prepared for wider sanctions, this as the u. S. Warns that russia could face further sanctions if tensions are not deescalated in ukraine. Nbcs jim maceda joins us from donetsk in europe ukraine. Theres been a lot of confusion after this socalled weekend truce. Whats the latest . Reporter well, it could well be the latest. Vice president bidens plane barely departed when they clearly signaled they have no intention of backing down. The kiev government came out and said the easter truce is over. You mentioned ukraines acting president calling on his Security Forces to restart its military offensive to start taking back towns and buildings occupied by the prorussian militia after one of two bodies was identified, at least preliminarily identified as being a politician from the president s own party. And while the militants havent xpantded their occupation into other towns, they have been tightening up their grip on the towns they control. Yesterday taking the Ukrainian Security Service Building near slovyansk. A stronghold for prorussian separatists and detaining that towns police chief. Meanwhile, foreign journalists continue to be harassed and sometimes detained at checkpoints, including an american investigative journalist who works for vice news and online outlet, the prorussian mayor of slovyansk yesterday confirmed the detention and vice has issued a statement saying its in touch with the state department to secure his safety. Instead, karen, of seeing steps taken to deescalate the situation, were seeing the opposite, a reescalation of the conflict here. Jim maceda, thanks very much for the up. Facebook reports First Quarter numbers after the close today. Analysts are looking for earnings of 24 cents a share on 2. 63 billion in revenue. That would be slightly higher than the fourth quarter, thanks to Strong Revenue growth. Investors will be listening for comments on the positions. There are questions about sustaining Revenue Growth as facebook refuses to increase the number of ads in news feeds. Apple posted Second Quarter earnings after the bell today. The tech joint was under pressure from carl icahn who wanted the company to return some of its large cash horde to shareholders. Icahn has more targets in his sights. David farber asked him about his tactics. I think i did. Why . Apple did a bigger buy back. I got to meet, talk for long periods of time with donahoe at ebay. The reason i think it came out of hand, we did get dave on the board. Right. I can talk to them. I get involved. Within i get involved, its very helpful. You think even though you were not going to win a shareholder vote there. I think youre right but i might have won a seat. They gave me a seat anyway with a good guy. A guy they like and you like with this guy dorman. I actually suggested him. You did . He was on motorola and did a great job there. You think they came out ahead there. Theyre not going to split out paypal. You can continue to have confidential conversations with the board. I cant buy or sell unless the window is open. Thats okay with me. I want to understand what happened. Thats what i do with all these companies. In terms of apple, you still own the stock. I think its very underval youd. Its a longterm hold. They spent billions and billions in research development. Thats going to come to fruition. And when it does, i think apple is a great company, great ecosystem. Right. And hopefully it will work out. I wanted to follow up on a couple of things you talked about in your presentation. You may have said this before but i havent heard it. You seed youre going to seed activist funds. You havent heard it because i havent said it before. Im looking to do that. Youre looking to seed activist funds. I think activism is very important in this country. I think we have some problems with the poison pill now and the tenday tenday window in terms of the 13day i think activism is so important. There are bright young guys around that need backing for that. And im going to start looking to get a few of those guys in. You know, seed them and see how they do, maybe give them advice on it, maybe not. And let them do the work. We could see icahn cubs, so to speak. We have some now, actually. I mean, so its not even the issue. Its just but yes. I would like to see more of this done. And done by the real good guys. I think its very hard to break into the business of activism. You have to have staying power. You have to have a fairly good bank roll. I think its very important to do it. Nick nelson staying with us from ubs. Doesnt seem to be a shortage of activist investors, especially when it comes to the technology sector. Youve noted the brutal selloff in this space. Do you think theres wrong with the sector. I think its connected to this massive move in price momentum. You saw this brutal rotation, out of stocks, very strong price. Here in europe, outside of tech, we saw sectors that had a great run started to reverse and started to come off in the last six or eight weeks. Weve had a complete reversal of the winners turning into losers and losers turning into winners. Were they overpriced . I think it was the fact of positioning. Theyve been long developed markets, underweight emerging markets. The shakeout with the geopolitics weve been hearing about from ukraine, maybe rates going up earlier than people thought from yellen and a couple of other things shook out some of the investor positioning. People looking for a reason to sell apple and facebook, it will be interesting. Thanks for joining us. David einhorn is sending up a red flag warning that a tech bubble is brewing. In a letter to investors, the Green Light Capital founder says theres a clear consensus were witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years. Whats uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand and what might pop it. Einhorn points to several signs of overexuberance. The green light says its shorting a group of unnamed, highflying momentum stocks. Were asking today do you think einhorn is right . Tell us what tech stocks you think are overvalued. Maybe there are some that will provide safety. What are you willing to buy . Jone the conversation on worldwide exchange. Get in touch with us at worldwide cnbc. Com or tweet m me w

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