Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20141103 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange November 3, 2014

Across the beat. French advertising publicis buys safient in an allcash deal and shares trade lower in paris. And proctor and gamble is accused of tax fraud and production is halted. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange bringing you Business News from around the globe. Good morning, everyone. Lets get straight to data points. The eurozone manufacturing pmi for the month of october, that has expanded slightly slower than first thought last month with the number of 50. 6. E were expecting a number of 50. 3 so that is slightly better than forecast, but still lower than the flash number that we saw. Well get to some commentary from the market this morning. Again, the eurozone manufacturing is slightly slower than first thought. For the discounts out the factory gate failing to drive up new orders, this is according to market, a second month of price cutting alongside tend expansion in germany. And we got the individual numbers for france, germany, iti italy. In france it slow ed at the sharpest rate in 17 months. Seema, the number we see here is pretty stable, isnt it . But you have to wonder, does it have to deteriorate significantly for the ecb to take further action. Thats the big question coming up this thursday with the ecb policy meeting. Analysts are expecting mario draghi not to unveil further easing measures with further clarity on the assetbacked security program, but does this manufacturing data change what he will say on thursday. That is the question. Now over to wilfred with a check on how markets are responding. Absolutely, seema. Thank you very much. Markets are basically flat at the moment. We had opened into more positive territory about an hour ago up 9. 3 in the stoxx 600. It has fallen off in the last ten minutes. The german print came out five minutes before at 51. 4 against the reuters forecast of 54. 8. The manufacturing pmi for october was 50. 6 last month. Now at 50. 3. We are flat across the stoxx 600. Now the stoxx 50 is suffering more in todays trade, but all in all we are rangebound. Just a reminder, on the 15th of october the european markets are down as much as 10 . Then the rally in the second half meant the markets globally are flat for october. We are in the red across the major indices. The ftse mib is down. 78 . This follows a strong finish to the end of the month and a strong finish to the end of last week. So just correcting a little bit there. Well have a look at the individual stocks, ryanair shares rally to the top after the group raised its 2015 guidance and posted a rise in q3 profits. It is up 9 . Earlier our colleagues spoke to the ceo on cnbc to ask about the decision to cut fares. We are going to cut them in the second half of the year so for the full year we expect the fares to rise 1 , essentially flat. Thats one of the reasons business is increasingly strong. You see air france pulling up prices strongly. Customers deserting them and turn to ryanair. We see that strong growth across the fees. What is unheard of in our business is we are entering into the winter period with forward bookings 25 ahead of where they were last year. Really strong fundamentals. And hsbc is taking on the latest hit from earning litigation. They were fined for a settlement after reporting a 12 in underlying earnings in the third quarter. It was down 2 but now just under half a percent. Karen, back to you. Well talk more about the numbers. Joining us onset is the business editor, partner and Senior Marketing strategist, paul, good morning to you. What do you make of the numbers and more importantly the share reaction down 2 this morning but now pretty much flat . Its a small miss to me and some of the important features, hsbc always put out their sort of Cost Management as one of the key objectives of the team, but it is higher regulation cost building into the system which means they are really struggling. So for some years to keep control of that cost income ratio costing up 10 to 15 during the course of the quarter are a hindrance to the numbers. The cost ratio is above 17 . Not great news as you said. There was a miss on the call with journalists talking about the Regulatory Regime globally for a bank like hsbc just being more expensive. Now and presumably for the future. In those numbers, remember youve got 701 Million Dollars put aside for redress cost in the u. K. They are talking about ppi claims just now saying they are seeing an uptick between august and september, a significant step up in claims coming from those claims Management Firms. If youve got a phone in the u. K. You definitely have been contacted by a claims Management Firm when you are seeing that bleed into some of the banks. Also in there, results and a bit of news on a french case being taken to court over tax claims. You have that bad news. And as you say, its all about the expenses and the fact that they dont really have control over it, even though impairments are coming down. Some of the trading in their business is actually doing well. But you have headwinds like 4x and the biggest headwind, regulatory red tape and it is not really looking that rosezy. In terms of share price reaction, what is interesting is they are responding to slightly better markets for 4x trading and for exwety trading. That has been a positive feature but all the banks in q3 are getting a better Interest Rate margin at the moment. So higher deposits in the u. K. And hong kong, earning more of the deposits. So the market reacted negatively immediately but the share prices are responding positively similar to what we saw last week. Ubs is showing maybe the Banking Sector is looking for the good in results and not the regulatory version. Looking over the last 12 months, down 6 . Lloyds is down as well. Rbs is up 3 . So hsbc is somewhere in the middle here. So we wont necessarily call a cheat, would you . Because you think theres still so much litigation risk out there. Reassuring the expense within the sector one would possibly describe it and banks sort of trade near their value. It is weather they are trading. 7 to the asset value, and that comes down to financial management, how they handle the crisis and the Capital Requirements they are going to need. Of course, hsbc very Strong Capital position reported in the results. And the dividend policy helps. We are losing dividends left, right and center out of the food retail sector. So increasingly the income funds are being relied into dividend sources. The lack of volatility in the Financial Markets has resulted in a dampening in trading revenues, but do you think that will continue to rise in the next couple of quarters given the rise in early october, does that pick up and ultimately help trading revenues for the banks . Absolutely. The topdown process has brought down the markets over the last two years and theres been concerns over that, the concerns of the complacency in the risk taking that is in breeding in terms of on the back of low volatile till. As we start to see volatility pick up, then its better for the trading revenues of the investment banks. I see that as a longer term. The chief executive is commenting on hong kong as a huge base for hsbc. And you said he doesnt see the recent protests as having a significant impact. Theres been a lot of political chatter about some of the comments made from a known executive at hsbc but confirming on the call hes recommitting to hong kong. We are talking about hong kong and china later in the show. Paul, thank you for now. Moving on, a deal has been drug to sell Irish Whiskey brand resulting in a 408 Million Pound payment. The Brazilian Company acquired portugal in 2013. The banking problems left the company and now it is off a half there for altice. And Publicis Groupe is trading down this morning and well join stephan in paris. This acquisitit rryquisitio in more than 50 of the total revenue from digital three years ahead of the original plan. The problem is the cost of this acquisition 30 . It is offering 25 per share, 3. 75 billion in total. They did say it will finance the deal with existing cash but also to increase the debt level. Although the ceo of publicis will be able to keep its credit rating, theres a question not above the debt of publicis. And they are not planning to sell shares for acquisition. Also, disappointment when it comes to synergy, 50 Million Euros in and yule cost savings. Thats very limited when you compare this to the rough news the new company would have, 8 billion per euro is explained. This is trading lower today. Stephan, thank you very much. Still with us is paul cabner. Lets dive in on this publicis deal, what do you think of the deal . They are playing catchup and the media world is transitioning much better than the big players moving their Business Models. We have seen with the likes of wpp they have hit the Digital Space early and succeeded in a result of Revenue Growth at the moment. Theres a big mismatch in where money is being spent at the moment and where the eyeballs are turning to. Its quite clear that mobile advertising, for example, is seeing more of the eyeballs but less of the spend. And that is moving. But if your Business Model such as publicis is mismatched, then they have to grow organically or make acquisitions. They have in the past been keen to make acquisitions in the Digital Space and some of them are allegedly overpaid for the deals, but it is playing catchup because they have to strengthen their offering in this area. Paul, thank you very much. Publicis shares are suffering down 4 . Italy is assessing a number of options to manage the shortfall uncovered by the stress tests. Unicredit has looked to hire two banks to help them after the results that were announced a week ago. Well go out to claudia with more. It spawned 40 since the results. The shares are cheap but on the other hand they may be too hot to handle. Reporter well, you know, the bank has been very hardly hit by these results from the stress tests and the board that management is scrambling to find a solution to raise these 2. 1 billion euros that they need to come up with. What seems to be most likely in today and in fact the market is reacting to that, is that theyll go further we are a capital hike. Well know on the 5th of november when they have to actually finalize the plan of how they intend to make up for the 2. 1 billion euros. The options out there were to delay paying back multibonds, one of the bits of news that is official at this point. They are not going to do that and will be reimbursing the 900 million they have to reimburse of multibonds. What is out there is still possibility of asset sales continuing to go forward, reducing the 2. 1 billion euros they need to raise by the capital hike. The major shareholders would be participating in the capital hike that is fintech. The brazilian Investment Group holds a 0. 5 foundation in the stake. Also in the news out there, there could be funds that are interested in coming in to take on stakes like qr, subaris and jp flowers. These are groups that have showed interest Going Forward. Just a few more days of more volati volatility until they face this issue. Monti is trading higher by 58. 5 after suspended limit down. At the very cheap prices, it is nonetheless still a very unclear situation so the market continues to be still having mixed feelings as to what are the rumors out there. So until the fifth of november, well most likely continue to get the extreme volatility. Back to you for now. Thank you, claudia. It could be just a technical bounceback. Thank you so much. Tesco is considering the sale of its banking unit in a move to raise up to 1 billion pounds for the weekend supermarket. The new report shows dave lewis, the ceo, has been forced to look at the assessment of selling the business in the wake of the scandal. Shares have fallen 30 over the last three months. Seema, what is up next . Coming up on our show, Richard Branson fights for the survival of a Virgin Galactic spaceship program as new details of this weekends deadly crash emerge. And could chinas Housing Market be on the brink of a recovery . We hear from one guest who says Central Bank Action is lifting the sector. Plus one day to go before americans head to the polls. Will the senate turn over to republican control . Wee get the full story at 11 40 ct. How much money do you have in your pocket right now . I have 40, 21. Could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement . I dont think so. Well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Welcome back. Well look at the 4x markets. We expect to get significant easing action from the ecb this thursday. Well recover the ground so far today just below flat 1. 2508. The bank of japan eased significantly in markets on friday and that pushed the yen to a fresh sevenyear low. Its a 112. 7 down half a percent today. Australia is also suffering today on the back of und underwhelming data. Well look at the asian markets and the big mover friday was the yen that spread markets higher up 4. 8 friday but closed today. Today we are having a pullback off the back of fridays strong gains. China is up a half percent, but the rest of the markets basically are settling down a built. Korea is down just over half a percent. Hong kong is down 1. 3 as is australia. Well digest the numbers from china which was a mixed picture for the chinese economy this morning as the final hsbc manufacturing pmi showed Growth Holding at a threemonth high. The companys official manufacturing sunk to a fivemonth low in october. Carolyn . Meanwhile, chinas housing sector has been a drag on the economy in recent months is starting to show signs of improvement, at least thats according to new survey from china confidential. Joining us now to discuss the survey is rafathe research arm the financial times. Rafael, thank you for coming in. Help me out here because your survey says we are seeing the first monthtomonth expansion in home prices since june. In a separate survey over the weekend says we are seeing home prices in china dropping for the sixth consecutive month in october. How do you reconcile the two . This is a separate survey from my home company showing it grow at the fastest rate in four months. The latest survey shows it growing the fastest rate in five months. So its a similar trend. But the most important part of my survey a rebound in home sales. Also, they show home sales growth at the fastest rate for 18 months according to developers we spoke to. One of the developers said despite the drop in home sales, home prices have not picked up so much because developers are still increasing supply very rapidly. Our measure of supply was the highest on record since the survey began. So you still have the Housing Market that is depressing home prices, but demand is pretty strong. Can i ask you where you get the data from . Many times there are question marks about the reliability of data points. Yes, there are massive issues with the data. We talk to Companies Directly so every month we survey 300 real estate developers. And as i say, things have been fairly negative since january and october when we saw a sharp rebound in sentiment. Very sharp increase. The housing sector abides for 15 to 17 of chinas economy. Is this data consistent with what youre seeing in the past and do you think this recovery can continue Going Forward . Yes, a good question. I think the stage were at in the chinese Economic Cycle is that the slowdown of home sales we saw at the beginning of the year is now beginning to impact on the wider economy. The official pmi and manufacturing pmi came out over the weekend, and i think the government is now concerned about that. The fact that the Housing Slowdown is featuring into the other sectors. Its now beginning to take some measures to try to support the Housing Market and that should support the economy as well. Even if the Housing Market is showing signs its turning around, the liquidity taps in china have been on since april of this year when data was much worse, so how reliant is the housing sector on this continually loose support . Its a good question. And i also suggest that the rebound in october was very much driven by the pbocs decision at the end of september to reduce mortgage rates. So the Housing Market recovery is, i would say, extremely reliant on the government continuing to lose the mortgage and wider credit policy, continuing to make sure that mortgages are cheap for home buyers. And so its a step back from the easing where we could see a slowdown again. Theres a risk of japanesestyle deflation pressures coming through in china. People pointing to the initial green shoots of that. Could it get much worse . Possibly. I do think as i was saying the Chinese Government is concerned of the slow down spreading now. And i think it is possible that they are trying to put this out due to inflation. And we may see an uplift through all parts of the economy Going Forward. Now a british banker appeared in a Hong Kong Court charged with murder after police say they found two women dead in his apartment. He worked for bank of America Merrill lynch until last week and spoke twice that he understood the charges against him. The 29yearold banker called them to his buildi

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