Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20141120 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange November 20, 2014

Stronger than expected set of results. This is a reminder for us that we really came in with a income of 195 million euro and for the first time can intend to pay a dividend to our shareholders. Banks are quoting catastrophic risk. According to a Senate Report which says Goldman Sachs, jpmorgan and Morgan Stanley manipulated prices. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Welcome to the show. The eurozone numbers just came in at 50. 4 for november. It was expected at 50. 8. The previous reading was 50. 6. The composite number came out at 51. 4 had. It was expected at 52. 2. The previous reading was 52. 1. And we should point out that the eurozone purchasing manager index for services came in at 52. 3. That was in line with expectations. Expectation was 52. 3. Lower than expected pmi data come out, but the Services Number coming in with expectations. Euro dollar, down 0. 25 on the day. It was a little bit off the french reading, fell off the german reading. Going to bring in james ashley, chief economist at rbc capital markets. James, after last week, we had gdp data which just showed the eurozone and growth. Pmi data so far this morning is just more than we expected and perhaps suggest that we wont be able to stay in that growth environment for much longer. Lets take a step back from the small movements up, small movements down. The big picture is the euro area is stuck in a rut where growth is going to be weak for a period of time. Ordinarily, if you told me the composite slipped by less than 1 point, i would not get too concerned. This time, actually, it is more significant. Weve been in this range with the composite index of 52 to 54 for pretty much a year now so weve now fallen below that. Thats the sign the economy hasnt going much going on. There is going to be in that small, positive range for a period of time. Theres no escaped philosophy picking up right now. So does this data confirm the case for mario draghi to unveil full blown quantitative easing . I dont think so. I think if the ecb takes further measures, i think the first step will be to expand purchases into a wider range of private sector assets, starting with corporate bonds, most likely. Qe, as in purchase of sovereign debt, i think is a new cure option that we will only do if they are badly falling off at the moment. Its not catastrophic. I think that is what we need to go back to before doing full below qe. Weak growth, jupositive, certainly uninspiring. The one thing that is very clear is the divergence from the different countries. It makes it very hard for mario draghi to know what is the best thing to do. It really does. Look at last years gdp number. Its very important to recognize it, but are these divergentsies, both in cyclical and structural fundamentals and that makes the ecbs job that much more complicated. They have a fundamentally broken monetary transmission mechanism and the policies that might be right are completely different than those that might be right for, say, italy. That has proven very, very difficult for them. James ashley, chief economist at rbk capital markets, thank you very much. Chinas manufacturing pmi hit a sixmonth low. The final reading came in at 50, missing analyst expectations. Lets check in on markets in asia. Sri jegarajah is standing by in singapore. Good afternoon, sri. Good morning, good afternoon, wilfred. The china data did foul the mood in the broader asian markets. Lets take a look at those pmi markets. The private forecast has a bit more detail. Were seeing right on the break even line for factory activity in november at 50. So the big question is whether this number, which is the preliminary number, will be revised in future months, i. E. December, and what the official data says, as well. If validation from beijings numbers, which is due in about a week 1 2s time, that would be a reason to probably sell down the equities markets further in this region. I think b well talk about the subindices. The devil in this number is always in the detail. They didnt look good. Factory output full to 49. 5. The labor market is looking weak, as well. Employment shrank last month. Remember, social stability and keeping people employed, of course, in china is a key policy for beijing. And its likely we will see some further labor market deterioration as we head into 2015. The Property Market does remain the weak link, as well, in the broader chinese economy. The risks seem to be weighted towards the downside as we head into 2015. A degree of composure in the markets, though. But theyre not going to throw the kitchen sink into the economy. Its going to be very value for speak of stoking asset price bubbles. Back to you in london. Thank you very much, sri. Alcoa, m a has been an active discussion this year. Alcoa completing the previously announced acquisition after receiving all Regulatory Approvals for the deal. Alcoa announced revenue in 2016 rising by 2 billion. It sees its current production book for 2015 delivery rates. Alcoa down just about 2 in yesterdays trade, but up about 6 over the past month. Were going to keep an eye on alcoa. Wilfred, over to you. European markets yesterday was flight to slightly down. Weve weakened a little bit as the session has gone through as those pmi numbers came out. France, slightly better than last month, but still below 50 which was disappointing and germany slightly weaker than expected. All in all, the stoxx 600 is down 0. 4 today. The stoxx 50 is down more, down 0. 7 . So those weaker pmi data affecting continental markets more than pan european markets. Lets look at the individual markets now. Down 0. 4 . Germany, down the better part of 0. 5 . France down 0. 7 . Its composite pmi was 48. 4, so still showing contraction in that sector. Italy down 11. 2 . Were going to dive in and focus a little bit on russia now. Lets look at ruble. The ruble has picked up a little bit today. Up 0. 5 . Still down over 40 yeartodate. Why has it moved today . Well, theres some tax changes that happened at the end of the month, meaning exporters have to sell some of their foreign currency. Thats why weve seen a little bit of a move today. But, of course, this big move over the last month seeing significant in the ruble has allowed the micex cross below 50 earlier and this is now heading for an alltime high for the year. Most of that rally, its up for the year, but this rally has been correlated with the fall in the ruble. That is an alltime high for the micex this year. The u. S. Bond, 2. 33 . It has a little pick up yesterday off the fed memberships, but nothing too ground breaking, so no significant moves in the bond yield, 2. 33 . The german tenyear, which flirted below 0. 8 earlier in the week, as well as 0. 7 earlier in the week, back above that level and the tenyear in the uk, 2. 1 . Were going to have a quick look at forex, first of all. The euro is off 0. 34 . Of course, theres weak pmi data coming out, 1. 2511. The u. S. Dollar against the yen, another 0. 6 has crossed through the 118 handle, which is a fresh sevenyear low for the yen. Everyone is looking at that 1. 20 handle. And the aussie dollar is weaker again. It fell another 0. 5 today. Iron ore prices hitting another low off the back of that pmi data out of china. Wilfred, you were just talking about the russian micex hitting record highs. Vtb down 0. 25 coming in for the quarter. Net Interest Income up 9. 8 . Its q3 long provision rising, therefore, three fold to 65 billion rubles. Again, thats vtb Bank Reporting its net profit down 88 . The stock has been in focus today. Bbva has been suspended trading. Were going to get you more flashes on that again. Its resumed trade. Its down 4. 5 . It had been suspended after a rights issue to fund the purchase of turkeys scaranti. A lot of big news and a lot of stocks in action. We will continue to get you the latest on those names throughout the income hour. Coming up on the show, america is getting ready to shop till it drops. One sxert tells us who will be this seasons big winners. Going for gold or not. The future of the central bank goeltd reserves. And we tell you how you could earn a little extra pocket money if you dont mind braving the cold with a trip to new york. Minutes from the fomc brought mixed reaction. Steve liesman has the details. Within minutes of the release of the fomc minutes, stocks shot higher. Minutes later, they shot lower. That adds to the increased confusi confusion. Showing the central bank has much work to do to figure out how to talk with markets about the path ahead. According to the minutes the fed discussed, the path of future rate hikes and how to communicate those rate hikes to markets. But it discussed rate hikes being too low. And it worried about Global Economic weakness. Factories that will lead markets to put off the timing of rate hikes. I think theyre strugglie ining the gap between what the market expects and what the fun affects. Thats something they wont be able to address. Clearly, theyre saying it depends on the data and the more they say that, the more the market expects different things. That gap is in the markets and where the fed thinks theyll be. The market continues to believe in lower rates than the central bankers, a gap that puzzles Market Participants as well as fed officials. I think its going to be very hard for the fed to raise Interest Rates, as much as they would like to find a reason and the ability to do so. I think rates are going to stay in the same very, very low level through at least the balance of 16 and i dont see a way where they can start to raise short rates. Most economists disagree and think well see a rate hike summer next year. But judged by these minutes, be forgiven for overlooking the fed policy. Back to you guys. So what sense should you make out of those fed minutes . James, i empathize with the fed. It doesnt seem like they would raise rates once we see a pick up in wage inflation. Theres a time of external headwinds. We dont know was going on in europe, whats going on in china. The fed is trying the forecast in a difficult economic environment. At the same time, even if its forecasting abilities were perfe perfect, it has to manage market expectations. Weve seen that the market is, to some extent, hooked on the feds koolaid. They have to prepare the ground cautiously. They have to clearly signal well in advance that changes are coming. And i think that to me is the key message from yesterdays set of minutes. There is a change coming. Its probably going to be a small change, but in the december meeting, were probably going to see that key phrase, the considerable time phrase. Everybody is focused on that and we move to a more data dependent level. I think yesterday was the warning that we should start to prepare for the first teptive step in tightening. And the one thing we can gleam from yesterday is at some point, everyone expects rates will go up. If it is data dependent, theres nothing to worry about with markets because well only get that rate rise when its relief warranted. I think so. But i think a lot of people have become fixated on the fed. For some, its going to be early next year. For some, its not until early 2016. So you get these big moves. Our view at rbc is the most likely point in time for the first hike is june of next year. This was our view before yesterdays minutes, it remains our view today. On the basis of what we expect to happen in the data, thats a plausible explanation. But lets be clear, if the data supply substantially in one direction or the other, then, of course, we would have to change our forecast because the fed is data dependent. And the reaction will change depending on those data. So the u. S. Is showing signs of growth, a resilient economy, if you will, given the recent data on consumer sales, sentiment, yet the market doesnt seem to be pricing in a rate hike. Absolutely. Why is that disconnect there . I think thats a mistake. We go back to what we said about the market being hooked on the feds koolaid. Theres a disconnect because they havent accept at some point were going to go back to a more normal period. Rates, when they do hike, will go up very, very gradually and a neutral Interest Rate is probably going to be substantially lower than it was precrisis. But we are ultimately going with the world where this is not a normal sort of Interest Rate in line now. Rates are going to move higher. Its a great debate and something that, of course, we continue to wait for some type of indication on when we will see that rate hike. James ashley, were going to leave it there, chief economist at rbc capital markets. Now, lets have some news on earnings so far today. Ccg shares getting a big boost after the group rejected a takeover offer from ierps largest oil and gas engineers. 18 in the green for cgg. Technip is down 557 on the news. Stephane has more from paris. Good morning. The Oil Services Group has made an offer to buy cgg specialized in Natural Resources expiration. Technip is offering a significant premium, a bit more than 25 compared to the Closing Price yesterday. In a statement this morning, technip says the combination of the two countries would create a unique Value Proposition in the country across the entire production system. But despite that, cgg has rejected the offer and said the solutions to pursue the negotiations with technip are not met. According to media reports, cgg is now continuing to put itself up for sales after the offer from technip. Cgg is under pressure. The Company Posted recently a loss for the Third Quarter that was the second for the company is suffering from the weaker oil price and also from the cautious attitude and that also is linked to the weaker price of oil. Market reaction, shares up more than 25 , almost in line with the offer from technip. Its now up 18 while technip, which made the offer, is down 6 , the biggest on the french market. Over to you. Stephane, thank you very much. Thyssenkrupp has confirmed it was paying dividends a year earlier than expected after reporting its first full year profit in years. Speaking first to this, the companys ceo said it is working despite conditions. We are quite convinced the gdp in china will remain at 7 or near 7 . I think markets, where we clearly have very slow moving decreasing moments is on one hand in america. I think in europe, our outlook is that it will remain flat. Investec is flat, 14 rise in first half earnings as the South African bank benefited from a bank in bad loeps. The group errored a fall in assets under management. We will be speaking to the ceostephen koffer. Russias raiff bank is down 2. 87 . The second biggest lender in Eastern Europe says they are seeing little direct impact from the most recent sanctions. Now, vtb, russias bank, has posted a staggering 98 year on year drop in Third Quarter profits. Earnings came in at less than half a billion rubles below analyst expectations as the lender saw provisions rise three fold in the period. Its up 11 over one month. During todays trade, it is basically flat. Wilfred, jet blue was following in the footsteps of its larger rivals, carrying back customer perks to put a focus on profit. The carrier is now planning to boost seat capacity in its a320 planes by 10 , effectively shrinking leg room. The airline will introduce baggage fees for certain fare options. We want to hear from you b whats your number one complain about flying . If you want to join the conversation here, get in touch with us. Email us, worldwide cnbc. Com. cnbcwex. I would have to say my number one complaint is having to pay for inhouse entertainment. I think that should be free. You should allow your customer toes partake in movies, tv, whatever you want to watch. You shouldnt have to charge your viewer for that. I didnt even know that you did get charged for that. Really . Absolutely. I do agree. I dont like to pay for food on board and leg room is often an issue for me. How tall are you again . 65. But i dont want to go through a long list of complaints. I do find flying is a treat, even though we do it much more regularly than the days when it was glamorous. I still enjoy it. Small seats, paying for feet and losing your luggage has to be the most frustrating. Jetblue is looking to cut costs. I wonder if this will essentially price out the lower end customer. Thats something that well have to watch for. Still to come on the show, will target be the comeback kid among u. S. Retailers this christmas . We will discuss after this break. Concerns over Global Growth weigh on markets. The french pmi lingering in contraction. But the russian market hits the highest level of the year, despite expectations that the economy slowed in the Third Quarter and one of the countrys biggest lenders posting a whooping 98 drop in profits. Investors cheer thyssenkrupps surprise dividend as the Company Posts a forecast beating results. Its the first annual net profit in four years is a huge success. This is a reminder for us that we came in with the income at 195 million euro and for the first time can intend to pay a dividend to our shareholders. Banks are quoting catastrophic risks according to a Senate Report which says jpMorgan Stanley and gold man sax exploited the equity markets and manipulated prices. The retail sales number out has increased for the month of october, so some good news on the retail sales front. Take a look at the sterling dollar, not seeing much of a reaction to that trade right now. Trading flat at 1. 5678. And reuters is reporting that pick up in retail sales has been driven by purchases of furniture after the countrys Housing Market picks up speed earlier this year. As you can see there, sterling is up, flat on the day, but it has rallied off the back of that data, and as you can see, its at 1. 5674. That pick up of furniture has to do with the recovery in the uk Housing Market. Interestingly enough, furniture playing a big role in this months retail sales number. Talking about retail i was just going to say, the yearly number plus 4. 3 . The monthly number up 0. 8

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