Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150107 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange January 7, 2015

We anticipate paying out the load this year than last year. But with all of that said i think the core of the business remains strong. Hopes are raised of finding the black box recorder as recovery teams locate the planes tail under water. Announcer youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Welcome to the show. Lots of data coming out of europe today. The latest that has just broken is italys jobless rate which for november has hit 13. 4 . That picks up from 13. 2 in october. This is the november reading that were getting. Its had highest rate since the data series began back in 1977. So the fundamental weakness in the labor market in italy is certainly still an issue. As you can see the euro is roughly at concession middle point for the day. Its at 1. 1868. Down 0. 2 on the day. Thats iraqiing more in the last five or ten minutes to some of the german data weve had. And lets recap those german jobless numbers. German december adjusted jobless rate came in at 6. 5 versus 6 of. 6 in the month of november. German seasonally adjusted jobless rate falling to a record low in december. Remember we did get earlier data from germany, europes largest economy earlier this week. Inflation falling to its lowest level in five years. Now our foef turns to that eurozone inflation number which is expected to dip into negative territory. The threat of deflation the biggest concern over here wilfred. And those unemployment numberses, a stark difference between the focus. The focus will turn to Inflation Numbers due out at 11 00 cet for december. Most forecasts suggest st number will turn negative for the first time meaning the block will have fallen into deflation. The promising price of oil saw german inflation dropped to a fiveyear low last month. Seema, lets talk about this a bit. Its going to be a krufl factor ahead of the ecb meeting on the 22nd. I think it puts more pressure on the European Central bank and for mario draghi to not just hint that sovereign bond is coming but to detail a plan. I have to say, the economic case for ease sg strong. Its the political will to allow it to happen that remains the biggest obstacle. The debate will continue to focus on whether the political powers that be will allow it to happen. Theres the expectation that full blown quantitative easing will be announced by mario draghi. You have to wonder will that be enough to pick up the economy . Absolutely. That will be a point to focus on in the week ahead. Over the last couple of hours, the brent dipped below the crucial 50 a barrel oil. It is lovering around 47. Wti down 1. 6 today and brent is down about 2 so far today. A big drop in the price of oil will oil continuing its deep decline. Prices at the pump are trending sharply lower in the u. S. My mother sent this picture in from portland, oregon. Unleaded price, currently at 2. 11. What price are you paying at the pump . In general, we are seeing lower gas prices across the board. When looking at the u. S. Here is a picture from my dear mother who sent that in. Lower oil prices are supposed to be good for the consumer but right now, wilfred, it seems like the market is focused more on how declining oil prices will impact Oil Producing nations like venezuela and russia. And lets get more discussion on that point right now. Joining us is sabine. Thanks very much for joining us. Lets touch on that point first of all. The headline point. Which countries are suffering the most right now . Yeah. Arguably, almost all producers are suffering. I would say with the exception of perhaps russia that is normally and its going to be a high cost producer. The sharp devaluation in the ruble is helping produce it there. But otherwise, i would say those in the north sea sitting around 50 a barrel on average approximately we have much higher cost producers. U. S. Starting to see Oil Producers hurt and you, you know, perhaps will clearly also see unconventional production in countries like venezuela that are going the to hurt these prices. And since late november, weve been focusing on opec. Does the focus now shift to nonopec supply as well . Absolutely. In order to stem this free fall that weve had in oil prices at least one of three things. A is the curtailment in nonopec oil supplies. C is perhaps opecs thinking and three its a much much stronger acceleration in global oil demand. While wefrz countries hurt and producers hurt theyre unlikely to cut imminently. They have financing lines in place. They may be, you know shifting rates towards more efficient places or cutting costs. But they dont cut production. It seems a lot of companies are cutting cap ex, but theyre still moving production up in the year. The supply demand equation knot favorable for the price of oil at this point, but how much do you think speculators are exacerbating the move were seeing in oil . 40 decline in oil over the past five months now. Of course theres a fair amount of involvement of paper investors at the moment. But i do think the lower prices are reflecting whats happening in the physical market. The physical market is extremely weak. We have 1 million to 1. 5 Million Barrels of oversupply a day. Speculators are suggesting we are likely to soon run out of unstored storage capacity. Once you get to flatting storage, that will lead to much sharper declines in oil prices because its very expensive, of course, to store oil on ships and its also just a finite number of ship thats we can store oil on. Its not like we just woke up one day in june and said we have an oversupply of oil and saudi arabia is not cutting production. Thats why im wondering that is exactly what has happened. Exactly the same way you put it. Unlike the last three years with saudi arabia then that producer came back libya, iran or whoever it was, iraq. They cut production again. So we kept total Global Oil Production pretty much constant. And what would happen in june is libya came back and saudi consciously didnt cut. And they made it clear at the last opec meeting that opec is effectively dissolved. A new policy effectively was produced in june and its now official policy. They dont want to be cutting production any more and theyre not going to see the balancing agent of the oil market. Opec is essentially dissolved, that suggests that theyre playing this very badly. It suggests a negative view on what theyre getting up to at the moment. But essentially the saudis are playing a bit of a blinder here. Theyre protecting themselves. Theyre trying to protect themselves in the longer term. What has happened really with a fast rise in shale production is that theyve lost market share and theyre trying to regain their market share or at least keep their market share. They need a much Higher Oil Price to break even under government budget. We talk about 140 a barrel. You have other countries like iran that need similar price levels. Most opec producers, with the exception of a few rich countries, need 100 plus. So theres a vast amount of different interests within opec and its become clear they cant agree any more within that cartel format. Sabina shell, youre going to stick with us to talk more about the oil story. Lets have a look in on european markets. We have slightly better than expected german Employment Data slightly worse than expected italian data. All of that together for a bit of a bounceback in european markets. It was a weak start to 2015. Its more a little bit of a bounceback following two or three days of declines. The broader stoxx 50 index is up 0. 5 . Lets look at the individual markets. Its a broad based bounceback from the risk off sentiment that weve had over the last three or four trading days. Germany, the uk and france up 0. 5 . Italy up a little less about 0. 25 . Lets look at bonds. There has been a lot of action in the bond market over the last couple of days. The tenyear n u. S. Dipped below 1. 9 briefly yesterday, but nonetheless, it remains below 2 . The last time it will that was during that big risk off trade we had in early october last year. It only stayed below the in october very briefly and it marked the bottom in the start of a rebound. We are staying here for the second trading session. Risk sentiment in europe is very soft. Its hit another record low. 0. 44 . Expecting some kind of bond buying in europe at the next meeting on january the 22nd. The uk has been correlated with these moves. Its not compressing today but 1. 58 and italy 1. 82 . Lets have a quick look at forex, as well. The euro continues to slide in and around the nineyear lows against the u. S. Dollar, 1. 1877. The u. S. Dollar has bounced back today against the yen, 118. 99. Just around 11 19. But over the last couple of trading sessions, the move obviously hasnt been as clear cut as it is against the euro. Lets check in on what all this means in markets in asia. Good afternoon to you, sri. Good afternoon and a good morning to you, wilfred. Its quite clear that despite the wobble that we saw on wall street overnight, nor the event risk that you mentioned with the data coming out of the eurozone ecb meeting and the greek selections, that sentiment sooed seems to be remarkably resilient out here in this region, at for today, at least. But bear in mind we had some sharp declines yesterday. The nikkei was a case in point, worst day yesterday in almost 10 months. Stabilization today and thats partly down to the softness in the japanese yen. Elsewhere, the shanghai composite, brokerages leading the gainers. I do want to talk about the Southeast Asian markets, as well. The s. E. C. The French Market the outperformer across the broader region. We had some very constructive data, the Consumer Confidence in the month of december at an 18month high. That supported for equities in thailand. Elsewhere, a day of resilience. But its going to be a shoppy month all in all for regional equities. As we get closer to the ecb and as we get closer to those greek polls. The markets have one eye on the eurozone and the machinations over there. Today, at least, they seem to be discounting some of the stress coming out of the eurozone region. In the short erp term as for this week its all down to the barrels at the end of the week. If we get a constructive number that may see some Risk Appetite for our markets. Back to you in london. Sri, thank you very much for that update. Lets look at the individual movers here in europe today. Sainsbury, which opened at the top of the stoxx 600, paired some of those greens. Still up 0. 5 after it posted better than expected sales over the christmas period. The super market warned of challenges ahead amid a price war with other uk retailers. Aggreko is up 3. 3 after it raised its 2014 Profit Guidance this on the back of a contract with argentina that settled its outstanding debt. London is one of the worst performers of the stoxx 600 amid plans to slash investment by 30 this year as the Swedish Company battles against the route of oil prices prices. Airbus is up over 2 after boeing delivered 723 jet liners in 2014. However, airbus won overall for the battle for new orders. Lets get more on that story. Stephane joins frus paris. Good morning, wilfred. Its the traditional story this time of year, who won the battle between boeing and airbus. According to reuters and ahead of the official announcement airbus booked more orders last boeing last year. But says that it was more than boeing. We know that boeing had 1,432 net orders for the last year. So airbus would be somewhere above this level. At the end of november for the first 11 months of the year the company had 1,031 net orders which means that it was a gap of more than 400 orders that need to be plugged in december. We know airbus last year faced a significant number of consolation, the main one being in june decided to drop a large order. In terms of you say boeing still is the largest planemaker 723 deliveries last year. That is a record level. It would break its own record, but according to specialist is from the industry its unlikely to beat this performance from boeing and, therefore, the u. S. Planemaker would be the largest one in terms of delivery for 2014. Seema, back to you in london. Stephane thank you so much. Coming up on worldwide exchange, how would you like your burger without fries . We tell you why fast food losters in venezuela are being forced to find an alternative side dish for their big mac. A drone on your wrist, only at the electronics show. We reveal the latest gifts to be unveiled. And freezing gas weather in the u. S. Listing nat gas off a twoyear low. We discuss where prices are headed for the rest of the year. Stay tuned. [container door opening] what makes it an suv is what you can get into it. [container door closing] what makes it an nx is what you can get out of it. Introducing the firstever lexus nx turbo and hybrid. Once you go beyond utility theres no going back. Intel wants to power the market. The ceo brian kusinich showed often a new computer the size of a button for smart clothes due out later this year. He demonstrated a wrist band drone called nixi that transforms into a sliding camera that can take selfies. The apple watch may be in stores sooner than you think. Apple expects to launch the device in late march. The company scheduled extensive training sessions to familiarize Apple Store Employees with a wash next month. Apple has been moving lover over the past one week. We saw a move we 1 in yesterdays trade. Right now, it is trading higher in frank put. Apple is noticeable by its years absent. The tech giant never attends the ces. Julia bororstin reports. The latest televisions are getting bigger and thinner. Dish unfailing a new way to watch live tv on these devices, sling tv a 20 Monthly Subscription to stream 20 cable channels. And big names are here to showcase the latest gadgets. Ryan seacrest promoting the new typo, keyboards which he developed to meet his own needs. It is sleek and its smooth and it literally is my office. This is how i work every single everything that i reply to is coming from one of our keyboards. This year more than every, ces is providing tools to make them smart. Everything to this lg smart kitchen and this qualcomm smart light bulb which consumers can control from an app on any device. Youre seeing a lot of intelligence in the home. And in homes that arent necessarily brand new. These are prices that have been around and you can install a later on top of your existing home so you dont have to buy new products and start from scratch. Scratch. Er all these innovations aim to help consumer stay connected wherever they are, whatever theyre doing. Im Julia Boorstin in las vegas. Lets talk weather because the new year got off to a cold start in the u. S. As a Winter Weather system brought snow and chilling temperatures. Forecasters are expecting a new High Pressure system from canada to send the windchill factor falling to 35 degrees farenheit. Chicago was hit very hard. The winter chill helped Natural Gas Prices rebound off twoyear lows in the u. S. Yesterday. But prices appear to be moving back down again later today. Joining us once again is sabina shell at bank of America Merrill lynch. Lets talk about the effect on Broader Energy stocks. Given that weve had this route, does that make it more likely that prices come on par across the range globally . The route in oil prices will have an impact on oil linked gas prices. Gas prices in europe are still partly linked to oil. As these prices are coming off with oil it will bring it more in line. But the poubt important thing to note is that all of these markets are trading off of their own very weak fundamentals. Theres so much supply. In the case of the energy markets, we are seeing a wall of supply starting up particularly in australia, which will likely put this into a bear market. In the case of the u. S. Were talking cold weather now. But finally. Its been such a warm winner prior to that. And, you know, the prices are clearly trading so low in order to curb all that domestic production. So we are in markets that are not just impacted by oil, but also by their own weak fundamentals. And given your focus on global commodities, this must be a hecht im time for you giving the moves were seeing in oil, given the winter, the frigid winter expected in the u. S. Are you expecting this type of move to continue into 2015 . Will commodities dominate the investor conversation . I think its been noticeable. To be honest, for years, all i would do is speak to our commodity client base. Equity investors, whether emerging market focused or global focus, barely looked at commodities, right . 107 for three years run, so what cared about oil . Right now, phones are ringing all the time everyone is interested. It has a huge implication on other markets. Equity markets, credit markets, currency markets, and we think this will be the case because although we expect prices to move lower, we have a target of wti, brent at 40 a barrel. But at some point, we will see a rebound. And at some point prices are going to respond to the fact that producers will have cut back and not just on an operating level, but were seeing real cap ex curtailments which will impact supply farther out. While things in the commodity markets, in the oil market which will continue to impact markets. Where do you see prices headed, 100 a barrel . Whats the upside . You know assuming saudi sticks to its policy, which will probably be the assumption we have to make right now, it means hundred dollar plus has constant because it encouraged too much shale. I dont think well go back to a hundred dollar bounce for a sustainability period. Sabina, thank you so much. And still to come on the show the threat of deflation looms over the eurozone. How should investors be positioning themselves . We discuss after this break. Oil continues its slide for the first time in 2009 while wti hovers around 47. European markets and you the euro steady ahead of that key inflation data that is expected to show the eurozone falling ahead of deflation. Sainsbury delivers a strong christmas performance, but the cfo tells cnbc that the uk super market wont be rewarding investors just yet. We anticipate paying out the load this year than it did last year. With all of that said i think the performance of the business remains strong. And an update on the air asia stories. Hopes are raised about finding the black box as the recovery teams locate the planes tail under water. And lets get you a check on european ma

© 2025 Vimarsana