Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150302 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange March 2, 2015

Pressures continue to weigh on the manufacturing sector. Unveils a radical plan to undate the Monetary Policy . And has reignited . Unveiling the most sleek phone yet and makes a play into the mobile space. And the eurozone pmi data has just broken. It come in 51. 0 for february. That is just in line with what was in january. 51. 0 fractionally below expectations in 51. 1. Germanys pmi came in at 51. 1. Slightly up from january 50. 9. We had italy and spain earlier today both of which were solid and strong new order components. All in all the data pretty positive. The eurozone number has come in 51. 0 basically in line where it was expected. You see the euro dollar strengthened a bit. Its at session highs. It was flat for the day and now session highs. Weve had some italian jobless data, which just looking for as well. Its come in well ill bring you up it has come in. 12. 6 . The forecast was 12. 9 . So that has come in better than expected. Theyve fractionally revised decembers data. That is januarys data. Lets discuss this further now. Joining me is the chief european economist at uvs. The pmi data coming in pretty solid territory. I suppose now qe is coming it should be good news the market. I think thats right. The latest Economic Data as you said have shown some encouragement. I think theres a chance well see more of an economic upsing. We see a number of growth drivers. First of all, the external improvement continues. Secondly, the ecbs policy has the euro has weakened a lot. Inflation has come down a lot. Oil prices as well. It helps to boost consumer purchase power. Fiscal austerity. It should imply that we see a better growth in the second half of this year and next year. As we talk about the Bond Buying Program we see yields hit record lows. This morning because its about to kick off this program. How much difference can it make to the fundamental. I think lower yields would help. A sign of greater overall we think that qe will come the weekly which is exports across europe. Is the Exchange Rate 111 handle today. I think a lot is priced in there. We see some further Downside Potential of the next couple of weeks. Yes. Lets talk about the situation with greece. Of course, we have around four months of breathing space. Four months is nothing in the grand scheme. If we look down the line three or five years, they need a deevaluation to be able to compete. If that cant happen through the currency they dont seem to go through the painful process themselves. Thats true. The road has been difficult. We still think that a comprise will involve out of these negotiations that we will see over the next four months based on the lower Interest Rates. Also great fiscal flexibility. The next couple of weeks will be difficult. Thank you. Brian will stick with us. Lets get to jeff and hadly who are live in abu dab bee with more on the interview i mentioned earlier. Good morning to you. We are here at the major investment conference. You know this part of the world pretty well. Were in the emirates palace. Its a large hotel. Its the center point here. What is exciting i have to say, the amount of people we see internationally coming to the conference. Theyre interested in the market here and getting involved with the region particularly with saudi arabia opening up soon. A lot of interesting conversations happening here. I think for the first time in awhile the focus is coming back here. A lot has to do with negative news stories about the energy price but its creating some opportunities as well here. Absolutely. Its interesting that some of the people weve talked to here specifically have told us that the projects are going to go on as if nothing is really happening in the energy market. Theyre saying despite the plunge in oil prices theyre going to be building. Its exciting. A lot of focus, clearly, on market levels this morning. Obviously given what we saw in february a lot of analysts concerned that markets are getting a little bit for Goodness Sake in the Government Bond markets and elsewhere we have negative yields now. We had a chance to catch up with Senior Adviser and get his take what is going on in europe now that the ecb has engaged in qe. His view mario an drojy is another player in the game. Over the next year were going seat qe involve. Were going to see a bigger set of instruments being brought by the ecb as it continues, unfortunately, to be the only game in town. You have written extensively on why we have negative yields on some government curves here. Fundamentally, it seems to me the bond market still has a different view where were going economically this year. Do you think that there is any credibility in that view where were at these negative yields because there is still too much liquidity globally created by money printing . The ecb is no longer a referee but a player. If youre another player on the field the dynamics change. Thats watthat the ecb is now. The major buyer of securities. Having said that i think the bond market is expressing some concern about gdp in europe. Its saying the risk is on the downside. Both in terms of the real component and in terms of the inflation component. I think thats something to that. I dont buy as yet, and i dont think thats going change. This is global deflation. The real issue is when u. S. Yields continue to be pulled down by european yields as pushed out of europe into the u. S. Or will u. S. Yields start to to a world that looks very different. Thats what a major battle is going to be played. I think youre going to be gradual repricing. We will not see a major backup in yields nor collapsed yields. Youll see the tug of war playing out but so mohamed there talking about the ecb being in the game here. I think very interesting that his message to investors at the moment is look for liquidity or at least if you are going to get involved in the game of chasing markets higher be in liquid investment so you have a chance to make it to the exit before the door shuts. Absolutely. We asked him about jipt andegypt and the investment there. In two weeks time theyll be descending. What do they get out of this . They seemed pretty positive. Theres a lot of liquidity that has been created by central banks. And we know the ecb is in the game. Were waiting to see what happened with the fed. The money is out there and it is looking for destinations. Whether it comes to this part of the world, there are some issues around that. But clearly its coming back into europe in in spite of sluggish growth rates. It might. And saudi arabia theyre opening to Foreign Investment in a couple of months and major interest here to people weve been speaking to about getting in the market. All right. Were here at this Financial Market forum. We will be back in a few moments. Lets send it back to london. Thank you very much. Were going have a look at markets in europe. It was a strong month in february for european markets. The stocks 600 finishing up the better part of 6 . Thats what were doing again today after the strong month last week. The stoxx 600 is flat today. Weve had the encouraging eurozone pmi positive data out. Germany and spain on the right side with expectations but above 50. Positive overall. Lets looking a the individual european markets. The ftse 100 and the dax up about 1. 3 . Weve had fresh heist with the ftse 100 in particular this morning. And the equity markets dont hit new highs both because that data is starting to get better and we know the policy coming from the central bank is accommodative and we get to see it going into action later this week. France just below flat and weve got italy up 1. 7 . Lets look next at rates where weve got the euro at 11193. Below the 112 handle. It did strengthen last week as we got the four month extension to the Greek Program and continued to weaken throughout the week. Below 112 at the moment. The u. S. Dollar strengthening against the yen today 119. 9. Aussie dollar sliding a little bit. And sterling which had a strong rally since early january. Pausing for breath today. Lets have a look next at commodities and, of course oil prices have continued to struggle to find that meaningful flaw. We lost some ground this morning on supply concerns. They recovered a little bit when the chinese pmi data slightly surprised on the upside. 49. 2. Brent 62. 14. The biggest news coming out of asia was the rate cut coming 25 basis points cut following a 40basis point cut we got in november and cuts in between. Lets have a lack at the asian markets. The session its been a strong session. Shanghai up 1. 8 . Hong kong up. 25. Australia benefitting from loosening policies in china. Also worth mentioning that india is up today after the Budget Review weve been talking about in more detail in about 15 minutes time. Now at last we said manufacturing pmi for china climbed to 50. 7 in february. Export demand fell and that added to the view that saturdays rate cut might not be the last well see over the course of the year. But this report from hong kong. Thank you. After a surprise cut by the Chinese Central Bank at the end of a lunar break. On monday a barometer of activity in the factory sector. The hsbc pmi added that more cuts are needed. It did climb to 50. 7 to 49. 7 in january. It was the strongest reading in seven months. A sign of uneven overseas demand emerged as new export orders shrank. Employment in factory was down for the 16th month in a row. Commentators on cnbc widely hold the view that quarter percentage point cuts will have a largely muted effect. In fact it could end up benefitting the banks more than anyone else. As they avoid a squeeze on bank margin. The rate reduction will benefit bigger state controlled firms able to borrow at the benchmark. For the rest lending will be done at the premium to the official rates and for them the move was more symbolic than substance. It was a third move on rates and a Bank Reserve Ratio cut a month ago. Coming ahead of the Parliament Meeting this week the people bank of china showing signs of desperation or trying to show its on top of things. Coming up plenty more interviews with the congress in barcelona. Including an exclusive with the president of cat loan ya. Also coming up the race for the car heats up. Seema will bring us an interview. Well be back in a couple of minutes. They marge in memory of Boris Nemtsov who attracted tens of thousands to moscow on sunday. They walked through chanting russia without putin. Authorityings a russian president putin has called the moment, quote a provocation and vowed to bring the killers to justice. Supporters are blaming russian authorities for the murder they suggested the opposition could be behind the killing in order to create a martyr figure. Lets get to jeff and hadly who have more on the discussion. Thank you very much for that. I was in moscow a few weeks back interviewing the finance minister, and obviously, the story then was focussed on what was going on with ukraine, the prospect of further sanctions. What damage that would do to the russian economy. Where we were on the Interest Rates, and, obviously, we got a cutting Interest Rate and the desire to stimulate the economy. It felt as though the ruble had stabilized and even though obviously, problems over the ukraine were going to continue it felt like there was some kind of stability at least in the Financial Market. This latest story, i think, is a very, very difficult one to analyze. The death of Boris Nemtsov clearly very deeply felt by a lot of russians who have taken to the streets here. My fear is that what this ultimately brings is further entrenchment in russia of hard liners around the president , and a tougher style from the opposition and you end up with a cycle where violence begins violence and protests and demonstrations become repressed very aggressive. Its interesting were here because theres some developments around that story. Absolutely. We saw a couple of weeks ago some interesting developments. We saw the uae and the Defense Agreement signing an agreement. We understand that they have a close relationship with a putin. A long standing relationship. We understand over the weekend they were having talks on saturday and bilateral ties and that kind of thing. We have to look at the broader regional question surrendering oil prices and what its doing to the perceived enemies of the gulf state. Saudi arabia pushing for change in russia. The russians have been backing syria for a long time. Theres a question when they decided to stick to their guns in saudi arabia in terms of out put. It didnt have a broader implication globally. I mean, the piece as fragile as it is appears to be holding at the moment in the ukraine, and there has been some pull back of heavy weaponry. So we hope at least, that is an area of progress but it is concerning that we now have this development around the death of this Opposition Leader. Its definitely concerning and i dont think your fears are unfounded. When you look at the fact 140 million people. Apparently mr. Putin has an Approval Rating over 80 percent. Youll see lines drawn, i think. Unfortunately these kind of actions by whoever is responsible for this gentlemans death, unfortunately this is sort of par for the course in russia. As you know youre a man in moscow. Youre there often. Yeah. But, i mean, its a difficult one. The markets give us a sense of what the underlying from the international and domestic investors. As you look through the prism of where the ruble is going, or where the russian stock market is going, at the moment if feels as though the risk attitude is improving not getting worse. Again, this is another area we need to keep an eye on. When it come dountswn to the reaction from this death. Lets send it back to you. Thank you very much for that. Stanley fisher the vice chair of the feds board of governors said it is quote, about time for the central bank to consider raising rates. Speaking exclusively on friday said it should rise in couple of months time. He was asked to give his take on a probably of a hike in 2015. I think theres a probably high probability. Can you walk us through the reasoning behind it in terms of why would the fed raise rates . We have two goals, as you know inflation around 2 and employment and estimated somewhere around 5 to 5. 3 5. 5. Were at 5. 7 . Inflation is a situation its low because of oil prices but we expect it to go up once. It is about time. Weve got used to thinking of a zero Interest Rate. Its far from that. Still with me is the chief european economist at ubs. Lets look at the situation compared to the european situation. The u. S. Bond market reacted in a number of week says. The euro falling below 112. Expectations because of a u. S. Rise or about to have bond buying start again . I think the bond buying in europe has been present for some time. I think it had more to do with the u. S. Part of the information, yes. And what does that change the outlook for you in terms of europe. When the u. S. Stocks tightening rates . I think it will be important. I mean, we at ubs expect the fed to start hiking in june. This would certainly be important for europe as well. Overall we see a significant decoupling between the u. S. And europe. The ecb will not be able to normalize and tighten Monetary Policy any time soon. The wedge in the perception between u. S. And european monetary policies are going to widen Going Forward. This week is a big week for europe. European central bank. What details are you expecting to hear and what are you focussing on . We think that the ecb meet willing focus on three areas. The first is the staff microEconomic Forecast released by the ecb. Secondly, greece certainly. And thirdly, we think we are going to hear more Technical Details about the qe program. I mean personally im quite focussed on the new stock market Economic Forecast because for the first time the ecb will have to tell us they expect it to be influenced by qe. Then since the microforecast will also include forecast for 2017 for the first time this will kick start the discussion on whether or not qe will have to go beyond september 2016. And provisions in the macroforecast. Weve had pretty good data. I think on the growth side were likely to see upward divisions. On the Inflation Numbers were likely to see downward revisions. On the third thing theyll be talking about the exact Technical Details of quantitative easing. What might move markets . I think people are trying to figure whether the ecb will be successful in buying 60 billion euros per month. Were looking forward to get more Technical Details on how theyre doing this trading. And the taxdax highs. Are you a buyer of European Equity . We do and germany. We think theyre likely to be keys for a weaker europe. Thank you very much. Now it seems warren buffet has a plan for his company. When the day comes hes no longer heading it. The ceo confirmed in annual shareholder letter that the Company Found a success per. He failed to reveal the identity of the person. It should be of note that vice chairman wrote in a separate letter that greg able both executives will most likely receive the job. Buffet joins cnbc for today. Still to come here on Worldwide Exchange. A landmark budget it moves to give more control to local government might stifle investment. Well speak to our next guest in a few minutes time. Preferial yields sink to record lows as the ecb gets ready to release the quantitative easing interview. Mario draj gi is the player in the market. Next year were going to see the qe evolve. Were going to see a bigger set of instruments being brought by the ecb as it continues, unfortunately, to be the only game in town. China steps up the quantitative easing measures as deflation their pressures continue to weigh on the

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