I think that the focus of this weeks imf meetings is very important. Its how do we make sure that theres stronger growth around the world. That would actually lead to currency values changing a bit. Shares rise to the top of the ftse 100 as consumer goods giants benefits from a weaker dollar. But they blame the strong green back for lackluster results while they see sales slow due to greek demand in the u. K. Home market. Were getting some flashes coming out of the ecb. Theyre saying growth will come in at 1. 7 versus 1. 5 in january. So slight increases for those. 2015 this year 1. 4 the expectation versus 1. 1 in january. Increasing these forecasts across the board. Its interesting because in the u. S. A lot are downgrading their forecast for 2015. What happened ifs europe grows at a stronger rate than the u. S. Wouldnt that be a surprise . Its clear how the momentum is certainly behind european growth. Were also having Inflation Numbers coming in as well. These forecasts of this 2015 hicp at. 1 slightly lower than the january forecast of. 3 where as 2017 its been increased 1. 6 now the forecast versus 1. 5 . We also had flashes that greek bond yields have jumped higher. The curve has inverted further. Greek issue continues to elevate as we get closer to the crucial meeting. As we mention at the top of the headlines, reducing expectations that any deal can can be reached at that meeting. Lets get straight to our first guest. Richard kelly is with us. Is that crucial . Is it make or break once again . I dont know. The issue is we have been sitting here for two months. Nothing seems to have been delivered. Theres no progress and the make or break is going to come the day before the default in may. Wolfgang ahead of this meeting, is that helpful to anyone or is that game playing or do you think fundamentally the germans are very far from any sort of caving to their demands. I dont think the germans will cave at all. That being said i dont think theyre that far away from a compromise they can live with. To give them the shortterm money. We are nowhere close to a longterm settlement of what is wrong in greece. The ecb continues to lift its emergency liquidity to greece. Many might say thats a positive to the u. S. Banks but thats not the optimal situation is it . We dont want them relying on the ela completely. It can only be a temporary lifeline. The only reason its needed is theres Destructive Forces going on. So its not positive at all. Lets switch focus to europe more generally. We had the ecb growth forecast increased a little bit. Yesterday we had draghi once again in upbeat and selfcongratulatory tone. Is that justified . What the ecb has done if you look at the indicators and data and lending markets its positive. Imagine getting to 17 1. 8, were talking about 2 to 3 annualized. That is there. Weve had a lack of Structural Reforms and too much is being heaped on the shoulders of the ecb. They can provide temporary relief but were not seeing the reforms we need. In regards to whether theres a bubble brewing in the bond market what are your thoughts. It was the usual Market Reaction because when he said there was no bond bubble the the market keeps pushing this. So as a bullish sign. They said if theres no bubble yet, why not. Thats the way the market responds to these things. I dont think you see a bubble in the bond market. I think you see a lack ofly of liquidity. But how dangerous is this . Yields in europe are even lower than they got after qe in the u. S. Its really distorting Financial Markets and that means at the end of this when it has to be removed well have an even bigger fall out than were facing with elevated volatility in the u. S. At the moment. I dont know that id say its distorting the markets in the sense that any other Interest Rate cuts distorts the markets. The issue is you get to some structural issues where some investors, theres promises of returns that seem unreasonable in this current environment. Youre seeing it across europe now where theres not enough euro denominated debt and youre seeing investors have to leave that debt and buy dollars, buy aussie and buy canada. Structurally youre changing things in the market. It doesnt mean its distorting. Its changing the ruls of the game. Many are looking at the low yields and questioning if bonds were the safe haven they traditionally were. There are not that many tremendous opportunities. In fixed income youre not playing yield curves. Maybe Cross Country carry. Globally its a u. S. Dollar carry trade and theres much greater returns in fx than fixed income. All right. Stick with us. We want to continue the discussion and get your thoughts on the u. S. Thats head of global strategy at global securities. Stay tuned, european closing bell will be speaking with s p chief ratings officer from 1700 cet and smaller parties are gathering pace and makes waves in the mainstream political background so how could these changes be effecting the Business Community in europe . Head to cnbc. Com but for now a market update. Were just about in the red for europe and it is a little bit soft thus far. It comes off the back to very strong weeks. Yesterday we finished up because there was no tapering which was an outside fear from the ecb but of course they he continued the bond buying. Overall this week has been a little more lackluster than the past two weeks beforehand. Were down a quarter of a percent. Lets look at the individual markets and see where thats playing out. The dax taking the brunt of the negative performance. It was flat compared to the rest of europe slightly positive. France down. 3. Italy also down. 3 . Lets look at the top stocks on the move in europe. Unilever up thanks to favorable fx move and shift toward High End Products offsetting struggles in emerging markets. Elsewhere, diageo off 2 . Trading lower after a decline in net sales versus analyst expectations for increase. Africa was the only bright spot with sales up just over 8 . Rival sab miller saw a rise in Fourth Quarter organic Revenue Growth with a boost to sales coming from south africa and china but the group was negatively impacted by currency moves. Overall the market taking those results up 2. 6 . Lets have a look at airbus. Shares reacting positively up 2. 3 to the news its looking to carry out a 10 stock buy back. The aircraft manufacturer hopes to authorize its plans on the 27th of may. The ecb has given a them until the end of july to close out a 1 billion euro loss making trade. This is citing a level. Thats plat at the moment or closed. Not sure why its like that. Record lows once again on european bull markets today. Its the return of the french bond yield. Its a continuing trend to see these yields push lower. The yield on the ten year in germany at 0. 091 . Of course as we just discussed with Richard Kelly there was no pause to u. S. Bond buying programs. Just touch on greece as well. Thats the exception to the rule in europe. Yields at 12. 6 on the ten year. Once again grexit fears elevated over the last couple of days. Lets look at commodities because the oil price has rallied but rallied in volatile fashion and yesterday saw a sharp increase in the price but today were correcting a little bit highlighting the volatility despite the recovery we have seen. 55. 99 on wti. It closed at its record level for 2015. Brent 62. 6 as we look at things today. Heres whats coming up on the show. If you could put one question to president putin what would it be . Were finding out what you would ask the russian leader. Theyre the latest tech group to unveil a supersized smartphone. I went to try it out. Stay tuned to find out what it was like and a model philanthropist. We head to speak to the Award Winning super model and humanitarian. Thats coming up. New york state is reinventing how we do business by leading the way on tax cuts. We cut the rates on personal income taxes. We enacted the lowest Corporate Tax rate since 1968. We eliminated the income tax on manufacturers altogether. With startupny, qualified businesses that start, expand or relocate to new york state pay no taxes for 10 years. All to grow our economy and create jobs. See how new york can give your business the opportunity to grow at ny. Gov business help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the countrys largest petrochemical operations. When emerson takes up the challenge its never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. Emerson. The falling yen is attracting more dollars into the country and high yielding u. S. Bonds are luring japanese investors. China pegs its currency to the dollar and is reib vesting domestically as growth slows. That has caused it to dip in february. The bank is the single largest holder of the debt. Jeff lacker says a good argument can be used for raising rates at a fed meeting. He says even though there are signs Economic Activity has softened theres still a strong case rates should move up by the june meeting. Simon potter says the central bank is confident it can smoothly lift rates by when the time comes. Potter leads the feds Market Growth which is responsible for actually raising Interest Rates. Markets are in danger of a super taper tantrum and spiking bond yields when the Federal Reserve delivers its first Interest Rate rise. That is the warning from the imf director of monitor and Capital Markets. It also suggests that the potential for upsides or prices in long rates when its more imminent is also important. As a consequence, Monetary Policy will continue to require fed getting the exit right and clearly communicating to the public. The compression of yields could decrease volatility and have a lot of repercussions. All right. U. S. Treasure secretary jack lew says the u. S. Is on strong footing compared to the rest of the world and says the u. S. Has more money in their pocket due to lower energy prices. The u. S. Economy is strong and in comparative terms to others around the world, stronger. Theres pushes and pulls in different directions. So one can say if any one thing led to more strength it would be stronger. But theres a lot of other factors at work as well. The focus of this weeks imf meetings is actually very important. Its how do we make sure that theres stronger growth around the world . That would lead to currency values changing a bit. Still with us is Richard Kelly. Head of global strategy at t. D. Securities. So jack lew there. Relatively upbeat. So we basically are still pointing toward a june 1st initial small rate hike . September is more likely time for the fed to go. June is way too early. When you look at inflation dialicdial dynamics i dont think theres any reason to force that. That imf view is nothing new. The thought this this could cause increased volatility and corrections in risk asset markets. Weve had plenty of those over the last six months anyway. But its interesting to hear it coming from him. Do you think investors will be looking at that and taking their foot off the gas a little bit . When you look to the treasury secretary theres no alternative to the u. S. Dollar in fx markets. If youre looking at Central Banks theres only one talking about tightening so right now you still have to talk constructively when you are u. S. Secretary that the u. S. Picture and the outlook there. You still want that con fireworks tense and you need to maintain the confidence. Once we see the growth in europe and asia and bottoming in china, if what were seeing in fx and rate markets is still going on thats when you start to go the other way. We were talking about a currency war taking place in 2015. Arent you surprised that jack lew didnt take more of a bold stance when being asked about the stronger dollar and the negative impact on the u. S. Economy . He would be very ineffective to say anything right now. Theres no alternative. You have to save them for when you think theres a clear and present discrepancy in the market. Euro dollar moved very dramatically in one direction but thats very correct in terms of when you see the growth differentials between the two countries. Its important what youre seeing. When we see something inappropriate. When does it become inappropriate . Weve already seen this 25 gain in the u. S. Dollar. I suspect that euro dollar will trade through parities. In the mid 90s and were at the end of the year and inflation is moving higher and if the euro at that point is not moving higher were seeing dysfunction in markets thats when you start to talk that the other way. Thank you. Stick with us. Well be back with richard. One more chat before the next break. Now ben bernanke has a new job. Hell meet with investors around the world and offer to analyze issues. He tells the times he chose citadel because its not regulated by the fed and he wont be doing any lobbying of any sort. Now the russian president holds his annual callin show in just under an hour. More than 1 Million People submitted questions on topics ranging from crimea to moscows relations with baltic nations. What question would you put to the russian president if you had one question to pose. Well add an extra level of assumption here. The assumption is he will answer you honestly. Otherwise it would be a pointless game. Nathaniel has numerous questions. How could the ukrainian crisis have been avoided. He would like to have asked putin if he could solve one problem in the world what would it be . Get in touch with us. Email us worldwide cnbc. Com or get in touch on twitter as well. Our personal handles on the screen now. What would be your question . The serious question would be what is the end game in ukraine and crimea. But the tabloid side for me wants to know where he went for a month. Does he see himself as a winner or loser. True. And youre going to get an honest answer there. What would you say . I would talk a step pack and say i want to learn more about putin, the man himself. I want to know about his personal life. Hes so guarded every time. Especially for a tv interview, usually has an entourage around him. Id like to know the man himself. Has he ever been in love. Is he ever going to get married . I have a serious one. The serious one i want to know what scares him the most . An internal russian individual or group of people or outside and whether hes worried about what happens when he reaches the end of this president ial tenure because i dont think hell have such a smooth transition and what happens next . That must scare him. Does he have plans to retire. I doubt he does. And on a more joking note i wonder how tall or short he is when he isnt wearing those in his shoes. He is very aware of his height. And his image and the way hes perceived right. Exactly. Get in touch with us at cnbcwex with the ask vlad. Richard lets have a serious point on the russiaukraine crisis. Its sort of gone away from the main focus of the global eye. Is it less of a threat than it was . You reached an equilibrium. Its certainly not good for ukraine or helping europe and its a drag on europe but in terms of generating market volatility youd have to see something new. Even potentially the default in ukraine and structuring, even that might be digested very well. Would you put money to work here in russia . Youve seen a relief recovery in terms of whats in there. I dont see very many fundamental reasons to be invested there right now. And its surprising given whats happened over the last 12 months that it hasnt derailed equity markets more. We have a deal forming with iran. Might that unsettle the major nations a little more than in the past . That might be a bigger issue if its iran israel saudi arabia than iraq and syria. Its probably one of the less appreciated political changes going on in the world and i wouldnt say its destabilizing but its dramatically changing the rules weve had in place for how Global Politics is played when were running with such low oil prices. Bringing iran back into the fold. Changing relationships between u. S. And saudi. It does create a lot of uncertainty over the next five to ten years and changes the stability. Speaking of oil prices the volatility in oil prices continues. We were up yesterday and now were down today and were also in the middle of earnings season. 50 s p 500 Companies Reporting this week. Next week about 150. Thats when well get a good sense of how the Energy Companies are coping in a dramatic drop in oil prices. What are you expecting from the Energy Sector . Youre going to see fairly negative news in terms of the immy kagssim implications implications. You could be talking 20 to 30 reduction. How that feeds into the u. S. Economy even though its only 1 of the u. S. Economy. That big of a decline can shave 2 or 3 off of gdp. Do we need a strong earnings season overall in the u. S. To just identify where justify where valuations are . People, a lot of times they focus on the exports and corporates. The biggest impact hasnt been the direct exports but the income side of things. Thats where they lost a lot of potential earnings coming through. Despite the recent bout of disappointing data the erratic moves in oil prices the s p 500 striking distance of trading at its all time high. Doesnt seem like the market is fearful of a potential rate hike. Whats keeping investors bullish despite concerns over valuation. The number one reason the market is bullish is theres no fixed income product it can buy so equities and credits are the only game in town. This is the only place youre getting some type of yield . And we have seen a dramatic pull back in growth. If you look at the risks to growth over the next nine months its probably higher and not lower but whats justifying the move is thats a place where you can still earn return. Pleasure to have you on here. Thats Richard Kelly. Head of global strategy at global securities. Sandisk First Quarter earnings missed forecasts as revenue fell and on acquisition and restructuring charges. The maker of flash memory chips is rejecting its first decline as it struggles to meet demand. They plan to cut 5 of nonfactory jobs to reduce costs. Shares did fall in after hours trade and in