Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150505 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange May 5, 2015

Anybody about the cost of the price of oil and has no fear about future fluctuates. Im not worried about crude nor would i try to predict what the price is. This is just the beginning. Indias finance minister tells cnbc the country will grow faster than china as long as it continues to reform. I believe india has a 9 or 10 Growth Potential and 9 or 10 Growth Potential, we have to invest a lot into Rural Infrastructure. This driven by the strongest performance since 2008. Lets get to carolyn with more on that story. Good morning to you seema. It wasnt driven by the Wealth Management business but also by the Investment Bank. We know that traditionally the First Quarter seasonally is the strongest of the year. Its tough to extrapolate that to the rest of the year. We did see a beat on the underlying basis in capital. That was better than expected but lets hear from the banks cfo himself. It was a really good start for us. Solid start. Strong quarter. Were pleased to see all of our businesses performing well in the quarter. This really highlights the advantages of defining your strategy early, having a clear strategy. We saw that the Investment Bank was very very strong and in a quarter like this are you thinking, man, i wish we wouldnt have pulled back as much as we had to in the Investment Bank . Absolutely not. If you look at the result of the Investment Bank this quarter very strong results but more importantly return on attributed equity of 49 . Well above our target of greater than 15 . That showed through because they handled our clients business without extending their risk limits and risk position. We were pleased. Very few banking executives that we speak to want to extrapolate from a strong First Quarter to the rest of the year. Tell me how you feel about the momentum going into the Second Quarter. Theres good momentum for us coming out of the First Quarter. I share my peers views which is not annualize the First Quarter but its a good start. What client confidence levels are you seeing . We saw good inflows into the Wealth Management business but you have repeatedly said dont put too much emphasis on that number. In a broader sense is confidence picking up as well and is it helping you in Wealth Management. Its a little spotty in terms of client confidence. If we look at the u. S. Client confidence is the strongest and picked up a bit. The rest of the world, the world still is a dangerous place and we see clienltts hesitant. The volatility we saw, 10 basis points swing from top to bottom highlights how clients feel. What are those clients worried about . In the last one or two weeks weve seen a reversal in the equity and bond market rally since the start of the year. Is this something that could unsettle investors, your clients Going Forward . In term of the market as a whole what clients are really concerned about is what happens when you have divergent monetary policies. That can create a certain amount of uneasy for clients. Thats why we talk to our clients about the longterm and not the shortterm movements and why we think theyre well positioned. Going into these numbers theres a lot of focus on whether wed get any updates on the talks. And a potential settlement on the fx manipulation front. We have no deal yet but theyre in advanced talks with the d. O. J. I spoke to the ceo about that. Well bring you that part of the interview in one hours time. The stock up better than 6 . Carolyn, thank you so much. From banks to bonds a ten year treasury yield ending yesterdays session at a 7 week high so were still seeing the sell off in the bond market and take a look at the german bund. Thats also been garnering the attention of investors. Also moving higher. But many experts say dont fight the ecb. At the end of the day further quantitative easing could push yields lower. Right now were at 0. 42 . Influential bund investor says he believes rates have bottomed. Speaking to cnbc on monday the ceo warns high yield bonds dont perform as well as u. S. Treasuries when the fed hikes rates but he also says hes not worried about high yield in the near term. Every single time the fed goes on a tightening sickcycle the yield curve goes flat. Sometimes it takes a few years but it always happens. The fed already started tightening as eliminating qe. So the curve is steepening. All right. He has no concerns about recent fluctuates in market Interest Rates. Lets discuss more with the fixed Income Portfolio manager. Pleasure to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us here. Thank you. In this low rate environment were living in is that the best strategy . I think diversification is a good strategy to have. Significant dislocations we have seen. High yield is quite attractive but im more concerned about the component off of it and we remain short u. S. Treasuries in the u. S. Youre short u. S. Treasuries right now. Has it just become a crowded trade . Is that why . If you look at yields you cannot justify current levels. They helped push yields down but overall i think if you look at inflation wages are going up. Employment cost index is ticking up. You look at inflation and growth you could not justify yields at those levels. What happened ifs that april jobs report were getting on friday comes in disappointing . Could that result in investors buying treasuries and yields moving lower . The key thing is to have flexibility in your approach. What we like to do is take short positions and long positions and create a basket of trade. We have gone into markets more priced in fundamentals like new zealand, australia has been a market we have been long and markets like mexico but selling overvalued markets in more developed markets like germany where we put on shorts. We started shorting in december. So right now youre actively short; is that correct . Yes. At what point will we see yields come to a point where Value Investors say this looks attractive im going to get in . Technicals in europe arent going to limit the amount of sell off in all of those markets and therefore i think that having a basket of countries where you can too have long positions against your shorts is quite critical and the flexibility i mentioned is also critical and when you buy a bond you get a currency risk. You get Duration Risk and credit risk and with flexibility you can separate that and you can pick which come component you would prefer. We can go in and buy the credit. So the flexibility is quite important. Absolutely. Because we still dont know when the fed will in fact raise rates. Stick with us. More coming up. Fixed Income Portfolio manager. Coming up on Worldwide Exchange we bring you hsbcs latest Earnings Report amid expectations the banks asian unit will continue to drive profits. What will this mean for its relocation plan . We discuss. Shopping online. Is as easy as it gets. Wouldnt it be great. If hiring plumbers, carpenters and even piano tuners were just as simple . Thanks to angies list now it is. Weve made hiring anyone from a handyman to a dogwalker as simple as a few clicks. Buy their services directly at angieslist. Com. No more calling around. No more hassles. And you dont even have to be a member to start shopping today. Angies list is revolutionizing local service again. Visit angieslist. Com today. Welcome to Worldwide Exchange. Lets get a check on european markets. The heat map indicating more green than red on the screen. If you look at the stoxx europe 600 index were close to session highs. Of course this week a lot of factors in place for investors with a u. K. Election. The latest reading on the u. S. Labor market plus on going negotiations between greece and international creditors. Taking a look at european markets where were seeing the gains, mostly the u. K. Market right now. Yesterday we should point out a triple digit move to the upside for the xetra dax despite the Manufacturing Activity in the month of april. Trading at 11,631. The french markets at 5,088 holding on to a gain of 7 points. Now in the currently market interestingly enough the euro is trading in a narrow range against the dollar this week. That nfp report on friday could change the market direction of the currency. A strong report could push the dollar higher while a weak report could result in the opposite. Now of course jeff yesterday says he still likes a dollar. He says i do believe the dollar is going to get stronger for a couple of years so perhaps dollar is keen now. Right now usd holding on to a gain of 120. 13. Thats a look at currencies. Now we are awaiting hsbcs q1 results. Theyll be coming out any second now and well get you the numbers as soon as they do. Given the challenges that hsbc has been engulfed in there will be a lot of questions not only on profitability but also controversies including Money Laundering among others. Lets bring in catherine thats going to join us in this discussion around hsbc. What are analysts expecting . Theres going to be a lot of focus on where they will be headquatered and whether theres a spin off of the u. K. Retail bank too but theres also going to be a lot of focus on just what the tax of operational effectiveness are as well and a lot of analysts are expecting to see not a great performance in Global Banking markets and the Commercial End of the operation and potentially questions whether u. S. Retail operation seems to be that good of an idea seeming it is performing better at the minute. The last Conference Call after ternings report a lot of it has to do with the tax evasion scandal versus the profitability. Operating profit at 6. 48 billion. Theyre reporting an adjusted profit before tax of 349 million or 5 in the First Quarter of 2015. A couple of other numbers to keep in mind now, 7. 06 billion. You can see the stock responding favorably at this moment. Just now trading up about. 7 . Operating profit at 6. 48 billion. Is that higher than what the analysts were expecting . Just a little bit. Probably higher than some of the analysts expectations. Im taking a little look at whats been said here. Pretax profit we should point out 6. 89 billion. Of course ne any commentary around its controversy and tax evasion scandal will be digested by investors. Last Quarterly Earnings did disappoint the street as it saw a sharp fall in annual profits and interestingly enough its Global Banking division which includes the Investment Bank faired the worst. Profits falling about 40 . Well also want to get the break down of how the Investment Bank is fairing and Wealth Management too will be in focus. You can see hsbc shares responding positively to earnings up by around. 8 . Currently at session highs. Lets get out to an expert who follows this stock from sidney. Its martin smith. Head of market analysis. Number versus come in for hsbc. First quarter operating profit of 6. 48 billion. What are your thoughts. We did favorable results in line with some of the other bank result wes have had last week. The surprise to the upside with a 21 improvement to 2. 2 billion pounds there compared to rbc who did perform to the down side there. So generally quite a resilient outcome given that they dropped last year to 6. 8 billion and the year before in 2013 was a favorable result given it was boosted by asset shares there. Hsbc also surprising the street by declaring a dividend of 10 cents. Were you expecting that announcement in come in today, martin . Absolutely. A lot of the focus is on the transfer of the headquaters to hong kong but aside from that the hsbc global franchise is very strong and placed well given the Challenging Market conditions there. One of the main focuses was operating expenses which have been moving up over the last few reporting periods there but generally the way they managed the portfolio there by dievesting those factors has been a positive for the bank. Im just wondering, we have gotten as part of this statement them saying they are issued a request for information in relation to the Swiss Private Bank that shows how much these legacy issues are still continuing to drive down the bank. How important do you think this it for analysts right now . Absolutely. Obviously stewart described it as a shameful event for the bank and hes been hideingunderlying performance of the bank against some of the other banks in the market there, hsbc is well placed to resolve that given the upcoming election which is an important factor in the u. K. But also some of the Broader Market factors there. Hsbc is saying Global Banking and markets had a strong start to the year and the commercial banking continues to perform well but when you look at the legal issues facing hsbc Money Laundering and tax evasion why would you want to own the bank verses the other banks that have less baggage . Definitely i guess it is the view on the street there that hsbc can overcome some of the cig any kanlt hurdle significant hurdles. Its a real concern for the bank and the way that it goes about managing that. But looking at the core business itself generally well played given that hes keeping a cap on some of those that are causing issues for the bank but certainly an important factor to concentrate on as we see more result there is with the presentation. Of course it will be interesting to see what questions analysts pose to Stewart Gulliver on the Conference Call which will be getting underway after hsbc reported results. A dividend of 10 Cents Per Share. Earnings per share of 10 cents higher. Youre seeing the stock up about 1 . Thank you for joining us here on cnbc and catherine thanks for breaking down the numbers for us. To greece its a busy day for greek negotiators. The deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Foreign minister are to meet with mario draghi. This as he travelled to paris for talk with his counter part before heading into brussels. Taking a look at the greek yield curve the two year now at 20 . The 10year at the psychologically important level for traders at 10. 6 . Greece is so far off course it faces losing imf support unless european lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt. The newspaper says Paul Thompson delivered the warning to euro zone finance ministers last month. Leaders are also talking about greece over there. Isnt that right, susan . Thats right. Everybody knows greece is running out of time and running out of money but thats not going to stop the optimistic outlook from the italian finance minister. He says were going to get some sort of greek deal. There is no plan b if greece exits the euro zone but hes been a little bit too overly optimistic. Now he is predicting just a few weeks a head because the clock is ticking. Greece knows it. The world knows it. Take a listen. Its not a question of what i expect. Its the fact that liquidity is running out in greece. Its a matter of maybe a couple of weeks and the greek authorities have to come up with concrete structural reform proposals that the euro group will have to volume date and im confident that the next meeting of the euro group on may 11th we will obtain tangible results so that the temporary program thats temporary extension of a program granltted to greece would be finalized. You said before that there is no plan b in the event that greece does leave the euro. Do you think you should start thinking about a plan b now . No i continue to be moderately optimistic. What makes you moderately optimistic . I think theres a higher probability now that they see of grexit than a few months ago. I think that the greek authorities very recently have appreciated differently the situation and theres an element underestimated. The same citizens that elected the current government do not want to leave the euro and they know that this requires some pain and this pain is to be short live first degree there is agreement and then greece can embark in an immediate term growth program. Now i also asked his thoughts on the greek and finance minister being sidelined. He didnt want to directly go there but he said its strengthening to bring in a new team and hopefully because of the new team leading these new talks, hopefully well get concrete plans coming through. So you read between the lines. Back to you in london. Susan lee thank you so much. You might think it takes a super hero to solve the euro zones problems. Head to cnbc. Com to see how super mario draghi is shaping up to his task compared to the members of avengers age of ultron. Now they have been making statements, a couple on the greek bank situation. Theres a risk that greek banks may run out of collateral to obtain emergency ecb liquidity if the situation continues. So worries continue ahead of that. Lets talk more about greece. Is there enough capital from your point of view . Enough support to aid the economy and the banks if greece does, in fact default . I agree with whats been said. Running into a liquidity crisis. They introduce some form of controls and headed down a very dangerous path and much closer to the exit plan so there is a very sensitive situation that can only be solved. Greece needs to earn more euros an we need to figure out a plan to do that. Is it in everyones interest to ensure that greece doesnt exist the euro zone. Certainly for the rest of europe for italy and spain and othe

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