Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150515 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange May 15, 2015

Controlling share in british retailer new look. Welcome to the show. The hang seng has been rallying lead by a spike in property stocks but analysts are still looking for an explanation for the pop. Speculation of a tie one hong kong and the shenzen was boosting equities. Lets get out to sri live in singapore with more on that story. Catching a lot of traders by surprise here. This move in the hong kong market. Yes. Were trying to get more clarity on that but the Hong Kong Exchange pretty conclusively poured cold water on the situation. Its going to happen but not imminently as some have been im implying. The broader market, the hang seng up by 2 . Some divergence. Were going to see more ipos and that liquidity is going to deprive the main board from the activity on the listed markets. Thats one of the concerns that the mainland investors have. Thats why were seeing some cooling off in the market over there but all in all it was a robust session. The dust is settling on the route in the european and u. S. Bond markets. One doesnt know whether there is a second phase of volatility and second phase of selling in the bond markets but here and now they seem to be quite appeased by that as far as the regional Market Action is concerned. Remember also we had a solid lead from wall street. Thats backstopping some confidence out there but were still trying to get a bit more clarity with what happened with Hong Kong Exchange. That tie up will happen but not imminently. Thats what the rumors and speculation were imlying. That this would happen as early as today. But theyre saying that is not the case but were still watching shares around 2 . Back to you know. Umbrellas popped up during the recent protests as young people took to the streets. Now umbrella maker shares are popping on the Hong Kong Exchange. Its the best performing newly listed stock on the hang seng index in 2015. It traded 20 times higher than its ipo price and is trading at a price to earnings ratio of 100. Lets get you a check of how stocks are are trading on this friday after what has been a volatile couple of days trying to hold on to gains despite the strength of the euro. The stoxx europe 600 trading at 399. Its come off the highs of the day. Breaking down the trade you can see that the ftse 100 is trading higher. Also the election rally has tempered off a little bit due to the volatility in the bond markets. The xetra dax at 11,589. The big concern is the strength in the euro and what that means from those that benefitted from a weaker currency this year. Lets take a look at how were trading in todays session. Currency in focus today. We did see the euro at 114. A couple of factors at play here. One is encouraging data in europe and disappointing data out of the u. S. The erratic move in the bond market is tempering investor enthusiasm. Were looking at the euro at 113. A bit lower than yesterday at 114. Speaking of bonds its been grabbing the attention of investors. Enjoying a slight move to the upside today. Yields of 2. 19 . Remember earlier this week we did see the ten year yield at 2. 3 . That sent dividend paying stocks like utilities moving lower. Mario draghi reassured investors they were committed to seeing through their program. They also responded to criticism that Central Bank Stimulus was inflating asset prices. Its true that our low policy rates and asset purchases raise the current market value of Financial Assets and there by benefit the holders of these assets but what matters more is the exact mirror effect of this rise in asset price which is is a lower cost of equity for entrepreneurs, a lower cost of finance for investors in real projects and lower cost of borrowing for consumers. That being said we have to be mindful that too prolonged a period of real rates can have undesired consequences in the context of an aging society where many households save not just to smooth consumption over the cycle but over their lifetime. Joining us now to discuss is lynn graham taylor. A pleasure to have you on the show. Draghi yesterday said ecbs unconventional measures had proven to be effective. Will qe be effective if we continue to see the euro gaining ground against the u. S. Dollar. We see one of the major impacts of qe being a weakening currency. But if the data continues to surprise to the upside how can the euro not move higher from here . I think big picture our view of qe is in the shortterm it will cause an increase in expectations but we dont think it brings about a true increase in Economic Growth. A lot of questions about the state of the consumer. Firms and households are hesitant to take on economic risk. Quite some time is needed before we can declare that. When do we see the Consumer Spending more. Very difficult to say. The feed through we heard from Institutional Investors is the increasing asset prices gives you a reason not to invest. You could see a stage where qe inhibits wage growth but also doesnt help the increase in spending. Another one is the dramatic drop in oil prices. That was supposed to be a gift to the consumer but that didnt really happen and the dramatic drop in oil prices spent consumers to save more money than actually spend. Thats one of the difficult reasons when you have high debt levels. Turning back to the euro zone the base effects mean that the decrease in oil drops out. That will help to get more Inflation Expectations at the back end of the year which we think is another reason why bond yields will sustain this current increase. Draghi also said the ecb plans to implemented in full the full Quantitative Easing Program until they see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. When do you think that is . When do we hit the target of 2 given the rebound in oil prices thats supposed to take off the inflationary defect . At the moment you have the base cases. They do run it until september 2016 come what may. So i guess thats our base case at the moment. They keep plowing onward until two years time. In the meantime what do you make of the implied volatility in the bond market . Some of that perhaps being around what some traders say is because the ecb will scale back its monetary support earlier than expected given the encouraging data we have seen. We think it was very much triggered by too much of a dislocation between beyond yields and where break even rates had gone. Going forward we think its a case where the reinflationary story trumps the lack of supply story. That follows a pattern seen in qe 2 and qe 1 in the states. The only factor is its likely to be a choppy ride in term of net supply Going Forward along with the regulatory background being different in terms of ware housing capabilities being smaller and exaggerating moves in the bond market. You dont think theres a fundamental reason. No we think a fundamental trigger but in terms of whats seen it take off quite so much is being emphasized by the background. Shortterm blip or longterm correction . Three to six month correction. Bill gross said you can expect german bund yields to rise to 2 . Thats inevitable. Do you agree . Over a longterm horizon yes given what in theory drives bund yields but given the time horizon difficult to say. Thank you. Stick with us. We want your thoughts on greece as well. Fixed income strategist. How should you be positioned in the fixed income space . Head to cnbc. Com for an interview with greg davis. Head of fixed income at van guard. Coming up on Worldwide Exchange more from the music streaming sector as we meet the latest app taking on industry giants. Plus netflix is in talks to enter the high growth market. Details coming up. Lets look at the top stocks on the move in europe. Roche is higher after strong results from cancer drug trials. Tests found it doubled the likelihood of survival for some lung cancer patients. Syngenta also higher after a reporter that theyre making a new bid for the swiss rival that could come within three weeks. Theyre trying to lineup buyers for assets worth more than 8 billion to appease competition authorities. Sab miller is higher after inquiring the british craft beer maker. Up by 1 . South African Investment group brait is paying 1 million for a stake in the retailer. Shares opened up 3 on the deal. New look previously pulled plans for an ipo in 2010 due to weak market conditions. Now our focus turns to greece. The imf says its flexible with debt talks with athens and is hopeful of reaching a deal with international creditors. Jerry rice said were open to looking at all options. Greeces next payment is for 310 Million Euros due on june 5th. Athens extended an olive branch by inviting bids for a majority stake in the countrys biggest port piraeus. Its lower than the 67 stake offered by the Previous Administration though the sale was put on pause when he came to power in january. Julia joins us here around the desk. Port privatization. Is that a good sign . The timing is interesting but i dont think we should look at this in terms of a backtracking from the greek government because if there was backtracking involved it was done in february when the finance minister said we will ultimately privatize this port despite the fact that the government said there would be a full freeze on privatization. I dont think we should continue to look at the noise. Theyre expected to have another Conference Call today and its expected theyll go to brussels and try to submit awe any reform propoelz and proposal and perhaps a meeting between the greeks and those in brussels on monday. The important thing is the talks are continuing. The question is will greece be able to cross red lines. I want to bring you into the discussion. How are you factoring greece into your consensus these days. The base case since the start has been that greece wont leave. The protracted nature of the negotiations has seen the percentage allocated decrease but were still at 70 . Its just too difficult, this whole ramifications of greece leaving the euro zone is too huge to imagine that it would. If a greek exit was a big fear you wouldnt be seeing the moves youre seeing in the bond market. No, thats exactly right. Theres the protracted nature of the negotiations makes it difficult but i havent seen anyone that has base case of them actually leaving. You were just saying off air to me the real crunch comes when they have to make the ecb repayments in july and august time but we did have them saying yesterday theyre concerned about the liquidity situation and while the government is issuing tbills we know who is buying them and thats the banks. And theyre getting liquidity so yes the crunch comes in terms of bond repayments but what about the concerns of the Banking Sector and that liquidity. The ecb regardless of the bank view has a huge amount of tolerance for a difficult time for the greek Banking Sector and refinancing greek sovereignty bills. So negotiations are on going and we find it difficult to make a call. The economy has already returned to recession. Does it only get worse from here . It entirely depends on how the negotiations go on. In light of whats going on its difficult for businesses to make investment so its all about the longer this drags on the worst the gdp numbers are likely to get. Morgan stanley said what the market is underestimating is the fact that we still have another deal even if we conclude the latest program or the end of this program and whatever reforms that means. We still have a budget gap as far as thats concerned. Thats still going to mean more reforms. Ive seen all sorts offest m estimates but they could need between 80 and 90 billion euros. If we have struggled this far achieving the end of the final program what about the negotiations for a new program . We see the most likely be another form of stop gap. Perhaps something thats suitable to everyone but everyone knows is going to need to be renegotiated in the future. It was talked about a few years agatha we all know that were going to have to do something with the debt stock at some point. Maybe pushing off that date for another year or two. Which is fine but given what draghi said yesterday finally going to take qe to september of next year. What happens when we dont have the controlling element as far as the markets are concerned in the qe. For a long time theres been a lack of correlation now between greece and other periferal yields. People say its about to get its program extended. People say its quite separated. So with or without qe. Yeah i would be quite relaxed about whether qe is there or not on the greek side. I want to get your thoughts on the role that hes playing these at as because while hes been sidelined hes still out there making controversial statements. Yesterday he said i wish we had never entered this monetary union. Do these comments still have negative implications despite him being sidelined. Its interesting. We obviously have our history but a lot of what he says i agree with. For the people i speak to in greece people say they have already gone back to the drachma. Theyve seen 40 to 50 cuts in wages and pensions already. For the ordinary person its not sustainable. At time his comments are untimely but the suggestion that he has been sidelined doesnt mean the approach of the government has been more nuisanced. Time is running out. Thank you for joining us with the situation on greece. Music streaming had its fair share of controversy in recent times but thats not stopped a number of services from popping up and taking on giants. Now we went along to take a look at the latest app in line. There has been no shortage of headlines in the music streaming sector. From the relaunch of tidal, spotifys 8 million valuation, a lot of noise has been coming from the industry. Streaming of music sold 54 last year while paid downloads of songs declined by 12 . In a t visited an event organized by new kids on the block. Its a stop style music streaming gap. Users have the opportunity to listen to the music as a streaming service and virtually invest in artists they think can do well. We hope its an alternative streaming platform that artists instead of uploading to the platform and earning micropayments theyre actually given really valuable opportunities. Unlike the established streaming platform it aims to cater the emerging artists helping to build their profile and garner a bigger fan base. Ive seen more people liking my social platforms. A lot more people following and interacting with treats. Social currency is everything in music. Anyone can hear you on the internet. It finds itself in a hotly contest contested space. Getting the foot in the door could be a challenge for the start up. You have very well backed giants such as spotify and apple and their plans for beats. Also google. The recently launched tidal by jayz. They face a number of obstacles in the rapidly growing industry. Competition. Opposition from parts of the Music Industry and fickle millennial user base could mean a bumpy road for the company. To succeed, they need to stand out among the crowd. Because we offer something new which is focussing on Music Discovery. Focussing on awarding our users and artists, i think the time is right. Netflix may be ready to bring its streaming content to china. The company talked with several online Broadcasting Companies about partnering with them. This includes a web firm backed by alibaba chairman. Its working on a modest launch for china if it can get permission to operate there. Taking a look at shares on fire this year up about 2 in frankfurt. Red flags have been raised about the secs filing system after a phony filing sent the stock on a roller coaster ride on thursday. Bob filed this report. It was an o dday for avon. They were having a normal day trading around 6. 60 at 11 30 a. M. In the morning. It caused it to be halted at the new york stock exchange. Confirm supposedly filed an offer to buy avon for an exorbitant price. The stock reopened and immediately shot up again triggering another trading hole. By then traders on the hole were noticing it contained numerous typos. There were rumors they didnt exist. The stock went in the other direction dropping 5 and was halted for a third and final time. Avon told us they have not received any offer or communication from any such company. They cant even confirm they exist. In other words its a hoax. How did a phony filing get into the data base . The Trading Community assumes filings made in this data base are accurate and reliable and vetted by the sec. What happened . No comment from the sec, at least not yet. Very strange. Back to you. Very strange. Now the sec and u. S. Attorneys office have charged a father and son who is an investment banker with insider trading. The sec says the scheme helped the father make more than 1 million on information related to five health care mergers. It allegedly involved tips and coded emails disguised as discussions about golf. Sean stewart, a senior banker that also worked at j. P. Morgan passed information between 2010 and 2014. Both men were arrested on thursday. And still to come up on the show. Stop the printing press. The bank of japan sees no further need for qe. So is abenomics finally working . Well discuss that after the break. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Roche reports strong results from cancer drug trials. A south African Investment firm pays 1 billion for a controlling share in the british retailer new look. All right. It has been a volatile session in china with shares seesawing between gains and losses. Analysts are still trying to look for an explanation of why the stocks out performed. They were reportedly boosting equities but they have no plan to announce a deal on friday. Now taking a look at european markets, equities could end the week on a strong note. Gain across the screen after stocks sold off earlier due to sharp reversal in bond yields and the stronger euro. Perhaps the rally on wall street providing a boost to sentiment in todays trade. Were looking at the dax at 11,610. Up about. 4 or 50 points. The ftse 100 below 7,000. A key psychological level traders watch but a gain of around 20 points. Now all eyes on oil of course we have been seeing a rebound in oil prices now up about 16 year to date. So far this Year Oil Prices had been rising but wti crude failing

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