Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150902 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange September 2, 2015

Billion takeover. And a judge rules that uber drivers should be treated like employees for a moves that could have implications for the taxi apps Business Model and the sharing economy. In august, it could easily become a storm in september. That was a word from trading floors yesterday. A big sell off overnight on wall street but here on wednesday were looking at the wall street could see a rebound. The dow up 112 points. Has the tack up 38 in premarket and the s p 500 higher by 12. Lets just show you how markets performed on the first day of september. It was pretty much a blood bath. The dow jones losing 469 points. The worst start to the month of september since 2002. Being weighed down losing nearly 3 and the tech heavy nasdaq once again getting hit by shares of apple. Well below 5,000. Closing lower by 3 in yesterdays trade. Now here in europe it was that disappointing data out of china and the drop in Commodity Prices that sent period stocks lower in yesterdays trade as well we do have the Central Bank Meeting coming up tomorrow. A lot of discussion as to what mario draghi could say on the health of the european economy and the developments like the commodity picture as well as china. The xetra dax now below 10,000, town 24 points in todays trade. We did get a positive report from Morgan Stanley. Theyre expecting a rebound in european equities. That analyst joining us in 30 minutes time. French markets down 17 points and slightly higher on the day and being weighed down by the mining stocks down about 19 points. But dont let europe keep us apart. No, some might say its a goodbying opportunity at the moment although a lot of people are still nervous. Theyre sitting in cash. When it comes to the commodities, spot silver now going a bit negative. Gold right and 1140 still. Brent crude and wti both trading a little bit lower so continuing with that selling that we saw in yesterdays session we had a huge volatile session yesterday. We have risen heading into yesterday and we still continue to anticipate quite a bit of volatility in the oil markets. Thats what many are saying. The opec meeting coming up as well and before that the ecb set to decide on rates tomorrow. No change anticipated but well be looking at market volatility and the impact on inflation as well with the drops we continue to see in oil. The fx markets, the euro dollar one to watch out for heading into tomorrows session. Were currently a little bit lower in the euro against the green back. You have the dollar yen right around 120. Big swings there yesterday. The aussie dollar a bit lower against the green back as well. Very linked to whats going on in china and the pound against the dollar also just down by a tad. We have seen repositioning with buying across the board this morning pushing the yields just slightly lower across the board. Another very mixed morning on asian market with chinese indices opening sharply lower before and then reversing to finish almost flat. Fresh supportive measures from brokerages easing a crack down in beijing and within the last couple of hours the pboc outlined its going to be requiring reserves for all Foreign Exchange derivative purchases thats according to a document seen by reuters. Lets talk more about the asian markets and get the details on that with sri that joins us once again. Sri, if people are just joining us what do they need to know in order to continue their session . So overall its quite a subdued session. Lets start off on china because theyre getting very mixed signals in term of policy, intervention so on the one hand, though, these reports that the brokerages officially sanctioned are pledging fresh support, fresh buying in the stock market. On the other hand, were getting some reports of the official crack down on margin debt in the grey market especially. Illegal margin financing there. That continuing. So were flat at the close. 3,155. Remember the china markets, shanghai and the hang seng will be closed tomorrow. Shanghai will be closed on friday as well. So theres going to be thinly traded volumes for the remainder of the week seema and the big open ended question is whether this is going to really move volatility if we have lower volume trade or if its going to take a major pillar of volatility which has been the china market out of the system. Very quickly, nikkei 225 is really emotions b really to this point that theres screaming buys in the market so we saw bargain hunting for the index heavy weights and strong session earlier on in the day and those gains evaporated. 17,714 was the six month low that we came close to testing once again today. That is a critical down side target for the nikkei. Seema, back to you. Thank you so much. Now speaking more about china, chinas Development Bank is planning on being less stringent when it comes to lending rules. They will not ask them to privatize loans like its rivals. They have come in for criticism in the past with some saying it imposes unreasonable conditions on some borrows. The aiib has not commented. The venezuelan president says beijing lent the nation 5 billion to boost its oil output. Any loan deal would demand Chinese Companies are hired in the extraction and refining procession. I cant get extraction right this morning. Heres another interesting story. The u. S. Is urging beijing to be more mindful on how it communicates policy changes amid the Global Market turmoil driven by fears over chinas slow down and doubts over its response. The Financial Times says the white house has been careful about criticizing chinas recent moves ahead of the state visit later this month but concerns over chinas economy and market volatility are expected to be top of agenda when jack lew and other g20 finance ministers meet in turkey on friday. Thats not the only meeting taking place this week, the imfact is one of the main talking points at the conference taking place in frankfurt. Carolyn joins us once again. Good to see you carolyn. Market volatility, china, it has to be top of the list in talking points. Absolutely. Its front and center here and many of the banking executives are still grappling with the implications of the china slow down and volatility weve seen in the stock markets. But what does it mean for the German Economy . The finance minister expects gdp growth of 1. 8 . Thats stellar if that actual happens but earlier this morning i spoke to the deputy finance minister of germany and he said, yes, were watching china but were not too worried. Germany someone of the biggest exporters in the world. When you talk to a member of the German Finance Ministry you also have to talk about greece. We know that negotiations surrounding the third bailout package have been incredibly smooth. Surprisingly smooth even but then it was thrown in the works by Alexis Tsipras that says im stepping down to hopefully for him gain a stronger mandate. Would that in anyway shape or form complicate the implication or implementation of the third bailout . Thats what he said. The biggest part has been done to help greece again. Secondly we have an agreement with the greek state. Not with a single party in greece and so we do expect that they will go on with the reforms and what has been negotiated still counts and it doesnt matter what comes out of these elections. We also talked about the involvement of the imf. The finance ministry in germany is very addiment about the imf being involved but the Sticking Point guys is will there be a nominal hair cut . He told me theres no way there will be a nominal hair cut in the euro zone. Back over to you. Carolyn, good to see you. Thank you very much. Now Morgan Stanley has given the green light for european stocks. What does it mean . The Investment Bank issued the first full house buy signal since january of 2009. Basically all five of the timing indicators hitting by territory. On average, equities rise 23 over the 12 months after you have a bottoming out. Stay tuned because well be speaking to the man behind that call, Morgan Stanleys chief European Equity strategist will be joining us . Just under 30 minutes time. So stay with us to hear more details on that call. Well see you just after this short break. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Why weigh yourself down . Try new aveeno® sheer hydration. Its active naturals® oat formula. Goes on feather light. Absorbs in seconds. Keeps skin healthy looking. And soft. Aveeno®. Naturally beautiful results. U. S. Futures indicating a triple move higher after the worst start to the month for stocks since 2009. European equities giving up gains this morning. They trade in the red after a choppy session seen in asia and oil still in retreat with brent below 50 per barrel. Wti and brent crude down over 15 for 2015. But what if the dow tracked oil . Robert has been crunching the numbers and this is how bad it would be. The index would be around 1,000 points below where it is now and between its lows and highs there would have been a range of nearly 8,000 points. The dows actual change this year is a little over 2,600 but the correlation between stocks and oil has been very interesting over the past couple of months. Whats also been a big part of the discussion is the factors impacting the price of oil. Not just the supply and demand equation but keeping into account the stronger dollar. When iranian oil will come back and the other big question is if saudi arabia will cut production. Thats resulting in a lot of uncertainty as to where Oil Prices Head from here. But also a lot of speculation as to whether opec members will be making deal with nonopec members which i dont know if youre a slight cynic you might think that were overblowing those comments and interpreting where we maybe shouldnt be interpreting as well. In terms of the difference of being a shortterm commodity trader and longterm valuation investor when looking at investing commodities versus the underlying stocks like the chevrons or exxon mobils theres a big difference. Big question is will they be able to pay out their dividend Going Forward if Oil Prices Reach below the 30 or at 25 at one analyst is promising today. Many are promising they will while some are saying think twice before you stop investing in everything but theres a difference between investing in oil services sector. Integrated oil companies. Exactly. But one Hedge Fund Manager is betting on the price of wti falling as low as 25 for at least a month this year. He predicted the 2008 oil crash and said theres signs of slowing u. S. Crude output. He says the market will remain oversupplied in 2016 and 2017 with wti trading at a range of 25 to 50 barrel. Were also getting flashes through the saudi market. Speaking of opec and speaking of oil t saudi stock index falling on crude on the pull back that we have seen and showing you here, the saudi market off by 2. 5 . It might also have to do with repositioning and overall market volatility. Europe has turned negative too and you saw a bad session in the u. S. Yesterday. So where do you think that the price of oil will be by the end of the year . Join the conversation here on Worldwide Exchange. Get in touch directly either on email worldwide cnbc. Com or you can find us on twitter. So youll just go online and you can find it all in there. Now david is the head of eemea and he joins us. Welcome, david. Hi. Lets talk about the price of oil while youre here. You tend to focus on emerging markets but whats your viewpoint on these Commodity Trades and the price of oil and whether or not well continue to go lower . Were bearish. We continue to think that brent will be at around 50, maximum 60. We think the whole debate about whether saudi, russia, venezuela made production is big about nothing. At the end of the day the whole situation has come out because of oversupply and at this stage, neither are willing to position to cut supply because they desperately need every single dollar so on top of that theres shale in the u. S. So we are still bearish on oil. In the shortterm markets might be oversold including emerging markets but the medium term is definitely negative. How long do you think that the oversupply issue can continue and especially heading into what is seen as cold winter season . You tend to see the supply story switch a bit. Can that make a difference this year . It can make a bit of a difference. But the medium term story is definitely still lower because you continue to see supply coming up around the world. The latest was this massive discovery in egypt and of course also in u. S. , the marginal cost of production of shale keeps going down because of technological change. How much is china changing the story as investors have to shift the growth and from the second Largest Consumer of oil in the world. Oil declined because of the story about oversupply last year but then the latest decline in oil prices is probably related to china. Our indicators for chinese growth right now are running at the lowest levels since the 09 recession so theres definitely something going on there. How bad it s well see. A lot of these growth indicators that markets focus on like energy and railways and so on, they tend to be focused on the side of the chinese economy that will weaken. It balances away from investment to consumption. Consumption is better than it seems but right now the market just needs some evidence of that and thats just not there. Chinese equities moving lower despite a series of steps being taken over the past couple of days to stimulate growth and injecting more liquidity into the banks. What else is left in their tool box . Seems like they leveraged all of their options at this point. First of all we need to be clear that chinese domestic equity market has not always been a very good indicator of the real economy and we think that chinese equities probably have still some downside. Theyre still too expensive. Now on the real side we dont think its as bad as it seems. There will be more rate cuts. But you dont expect an aggressive rate cut giving the rising cpi inflation picture. No, we dont see any aggressive rate cuts. We need to be clear also that of course to some extent the chinese authorities are con trained by how much they can stimulate on the monetary side. Super briefly all the buy signals are on for equities. Are they on for emerging Market Equities . Yes. We think markets are oversold. We think that em currencies are also oversold. We think that the ecb will be dovish tomorrow. We think that the fed will not be as bad as it seems but medium term fundamentals still remain poor. Thank you very much. Stick around. Cross atlantic dealing. Could ge be on the verge of ceiling its 14 billion tie up with alstom . Stay tuned to find out. Try the superior hold. Of fixodent plus adhesives. They help your denture hold strong more like natural teeth. And you can eat even tough food. Fixodent. Strong more like natural teeth. Fixodent and forget it. Stefen is in paris with more on this. So it looks like its going to go ahead stefen. Absolutely but for the time being alstom denies or declines to comment on the report and will still wait for the decision by the European Commission due by september 11th. Thats the deadline. According to the Financial Times theyre close to a deal with the European Commission and should get a green light very closely. Disapproval would come after they agreed to make some concessions. They didnt say precisely where these concessions but only indicated that they were addressing the concern of the commission while preserving the economic and Strategic Value of the deal. Alstom also made an effort and agreed to lower the amount it will receive from general electric, a discount of 300 Million Euros to reflect the concessions made by ge. General electric agreed to pay 12. 4 billion euros to buy most of the units of alstom. The European Commission decided to launch a full scale investigation at the beginning of the year on concerns that the deal would reduce competition in the market which would eventually lead to higher prices and lower innovation. So basically we are expecting a decision by september 11 at the latest and according to the Financial Times its going to be a yes for the operation. Thank you. Lets take a look at futures here on wednesday, the 2nd day of september after what was a big sell off on wall street. Futures though point to a very different story here. The dow is up 105 points. Nasdaq seeing a gain of 35 points. S p 500 up about 11. The dow back in direction territory. Well see if that changes in todays trade. European stocks in the meantime we are relatively lower but were off session lows so thats Something Interesting to point out. This of course after asian stocks overnight closed in negative territory. We will be back in two minutes. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Of fixodent plus adhesives. They help your denture hold strong more like natural teeth. And you can eat even tough food. Fixodent. Strong more like natural teeth. Fixodent and forget it. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange everyone. These are are your headlines from around the world. Shaping up for a rebound. U. S. Futures indicating a move higher for the dow after a sour start in september. Equities give up gains following a mixed session in asia. Another rise in us. Crude stocks says one bear calls for wti to hit 25 per barrel this year. Closing on a deal, reports suggest ge could be about to get the green light from eu regulators for its 14 billion take over. And a judge rules that uber drivers should be treated like employ

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