Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20151019 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange October 19, 2015

Hes confident in the success of ferraris ipo as it is about to be priced at 48 to 52 a share. Japan post shows the ipo at a top end of the price range in a listing that creates a combined value of 65 billion. All right. So here we go. Less than 7 but you know what, 6. 8, not bad. 6. 9 was better than 6. 8 forecast in the worlds second largest economy. The weakest read weve seen for chinese gdp in more than six years. You have to go back to the Global Financial crisis in 2009. However, a number of analysts and economists were forecasting 6. 8, will. Take the 6. 9 and to the good with the bad. People surprised with the positivity there. Overall, a series of down beat data has raised further support measures to prop up the economy. Weak than than expected growth and fixed Asset Investment came in below forecast. Retail sales, that was a bright spot rising slightly above expectations in september. Lets get out to uneunice. She joins us live from beijing. Reporter thanks so much. The 6. 9 is the slowest growth that weve seen in the past couple of quarters, especially, and at the same time though i think that the overall message that were getting from the chinese leadership is that even though its slowing down, this economy is still stable and strong. Over the weekend the chinese premiere had said that it would be difficult for he said not easy for the country to meet its annual growth target of about 7 . At the same time, he did suggest that they are still closely watching and somewhat comfortable with the level of employment as well as wage growth. So in addition to that, the chinese president , xi jinping, whos traveling over your guyss way to the u. K. , also spoke to reuters in a written interview in which he said that he was he expressed that there are concerns about the overall economy but that china would be able to weather the downturn. That is the official way that the leadership is painting things. The problem though, of course, is that theres been a growing growing concern among many economists here that the data, the quality of the data, the integrity of the data just isnt really up to par. This has been a problem that the country has seen, many economists have had a problem for quite some time. At the same time, its getting worse. A lot of economists said that for political reasons they believe the leadership is starting to skew this data even further and that there is a widening disconnect between the headline figures as well as other data that theyre all closely watching. And the problem with that is that that then creates a credibility gap between what the leadership wants to project over seas of a strong economy, a strong leadership in control and what is actually happening on the ground. Guys . Okay. Eunice, thank you so much. Eunice yoon in china, in beijing. Ahead of a fourday state visit to brittain this week, chinese president xi jinping speaking to reuters saying that they look forward to engaging with the u. K. , he says, in a wider range. He called brittain a, quote, visionary and strategic choice to strengthen strategic ties with china. One Company Already seeing the benefits of a possible deal is the chinese electric car manufacturer, byd. Its warren buffet backed. Warren buffet owns shares. It is likely to cooperate with the u. K. Passenger vehicle to manufacture an electric bus here in the u. K. Lets talk about china and what this means for the rest of the world. David luben head of economic markets at citi is joining us. Good morning. 6. 9 . If you dig into the details, still slow when it comes to manufacturing, also foreign direct investment. I mean, you know, fixed asset, you name it. I think there are two main lessons from the data. The first is as you say, a sharp slowdown taking place in the industrial sector in china. 5. 7 as you highlighted is the worst since february 2009 just at the height of the Global Financial crisis, but the other thing comes out of the data is the evidence that we see of a restructuring taking place in the chinese economy. This is something that chinese policy makers have been committing themselves to in the past couple of years, to increase the share in gdp thats Worldwide Services and consumption spending. The fact that the touristy sector accounted for over 90 of the gdp growth is an important side. Here we are in the Third Quarter, 6. 9 . Theyve outlined were going to get to 7 in 2015. They havent missed those gdp targets since at this naen min square. Do you care about headline gdp anymore . Its important to put the gdp data in the context of all the other data we have to give us an idea of whats happening in china. I think for the rest of the world, the overall message that has been consistently delivered is that the period of rapid investment led chinese growth, which you can kind of date between 2002 and 2013, is totally there. Thats irreversible in the chinese economy. That develops a nasty shock to other developing companies in emerging markets particularly for whom that period of rapid investmentled growth in china was a huge earlytive external shot. Thats gone. It requires a big change in the growth model. Who suffers . Which other developing economies are suffering the most from this . Well, the easiest way to kind of analyze that kind of vulnerability is to focus on commodity exporting countries, brazil, south africa, russia, all of which are either in recession or close to recession. And if you think that, you know, the two biggest kind of threats to emerging markets, financial and economic stability is coming, a, from china because of the slowdown and change in structure of the economy and, b, from the threat of higher u. S. Interest rates over the next year or so, then you can really boil vulnerability down to countries that are commodity exporters but also have current account deficits because its countries with current account deficits that are likely to suffer most when u. S. Monetary policy tightens and therefore sucks capital. Can i take this conversation in a different direction because, you know, in some ways the chinese economy has doubled in the last six years. 6 growth now, the catch on the Chinese Government has said its the same to 10, 12 growth 10 years ago or 7 years ago. Im just wondering how concerned are you that the Chinese Government is slowing down much worse than what the government expected and the impact globally . I think there is an endless debate about whether the gdp data properly reflect whats going on in the economy. I mean, i think this year there is a kind of suspicion for the first time, i think, that the gdp deflator is, you know, somewhat lower than it might be. I mean, that was true seemed to be true in the first quarter. It seems to be true dwat at that out today. The gdp deflator for q 3 was reported as minus. 7 . We think its probably closer to 1 1 2. So, you know, there is that weigh in toagelizing te inine i analyze data and dont just focus on gdp and that gives you proper reflection of whats really going on. I. E. , theres a slowdown in an industrial reflector. David lubin, head of emerging markets and economics at citi. We have the chinese president xi jinping in town. The cme and china construction bank, ccb have signed a memorandum of understanding meaning that it will be the first time that off shore am futures contracts will be physically deliverable to london. The british capital has become the main site outside of asia. George osborne with the bboc on his recent trip last month to beijing. For more on the china story, head to our website where you can follow our live blog. This is real time analysis, market reaction. Also more expert views for you. Thats all on cnbc dotcom. Right. Lets vae a look at our other top story, deutsch bank. Better controlled, lower cost and more focused bank. That is what ceo john grimes says he hopes to achieve after the radical overhaul of the banks structure. He split it into two, Global Markets and another, the corporate and Transaction Banking operations. There will also be a new independent Digital Banking unit. Other changes as well in terms of the head count. Yeah, thats right. I think this has been kind of telustrated to the markets. You have a slashing of assets. A host of executives being shown the door and a host of new names being brought in to run new businesses as he seeks to distance the bank from the challenges associated with past misdemeanors and also poor performers. Colin fan, Stefan Krause will be leaving. Garth richie will head up the equities business. A woman will join for the first time on the executive board, Sylvie Matherat will become chief regulatory officer. The massive overhaul comes after Deutsche Bank warned of this close to 7 billion euro loss they will have to report in the Third Quarter. The bank due to unveil new details of a new fiveyear plan next week when its also expected to announce thousands of job cuts. Indeed. Deutsche bank not the only one making changes. Credit suisse will have changes this wednesday. Reports say it could have cost cuts and sizeable capital cost plan. And it turns to numbers from barclays. November gets going with numbers from hsbc amid reports that it may not move its headquarters from the u. K. To hong kong. The Third Quarter scorecard, that comes the very next day when you see bill winters plans to slash staffing as it gravels with the emerging markets. Well be talking more about what to expect with an annual flis a few minutes. Susan, back to you. Yeah, okay. Lets tubing carolyn roth who has been watching Deutsche Bank and covering the bank for many years. Carolyn, i feel like its been telustrated to the markets. The former ceo said he was going to slash 171 billion in assets in trading. Its true, but that simply wasnt good enough for the market. So what were seeing now is that john klein i hear that my mic has problems . Indeed. Lets have a look at the share price as well so far today. Big changes, susan, that came out across that. Not just the restructuring there but also the changes in the management. A lot of changes now such that five out of six of the Main Management of the Previous Team have gone up 3. 5 . Taken very well from the markets. Also, you know, i want to point out that Deutsche Bank is separating the business of dealing with the institutional funding clients from private and retail Wealth Management which has kind of been what other banks have been doing as well since a lot of the misdemeanors go back to the trading, the institutional part of the bank. Libor for instance. Retail banking, like a lot of other banks, have actually been making a lot of money since in the u. S. People are taking out mortgages once again. Carolyn, how do you see things . First of all, i have my microphone problem sorted. This was a bank that wants to simplify, that wants to become a lot more profit obl. John crine as opposed to jane can be the man who can deliver those changes. So as you eluded to before, we have already seen an announcement of a major strategy shift earlier this year. That was in april. It wasnt good enough. They didnt have the trust of regulators and investor. John cryan is the man on the job now. What were seeing is that hes doing this drastic calling of the old guard, if you will. So anyone who had anything to do with that old strategy, with the old Deutsche Bank, that person has to go. So the strong message is anyone who thought that excessive risk taking was okay, that person is no longer at Deutsche Bank. But the big question is how many jobs are going to have to go . Second question is, whats the precise scope, really, of the cost cutting. We know that 3 1 2 billion our rows have to be cut. But what stages are we going to see . Most importantly, just how profitable will the bank be Going Forward and how do we get to that profitability . Investment banking obviously being split up Going Forward, does that mean overall theres a proportion of the pie that Investment Banking will start to decline, do we think, or is there still a focus on Investment Banking but in a different way . What i think is really interesting is the fact that the trading business that has been separated from the transaction business and from the Corporate Finance desk, that potentially means theres been a little bit of speculation in the press over the weekend that maybe the trading business could be spun off. Maybe if the regulatory capital that is needed to back these operations is excessively high, maybe this would be the easiest way to spin off that business. Its still a part of the business but we know this has caused a lot of problems for the bank. Carolyn, thanks very much. Coming up on the program on worldwide exchange, another day, another raid. Vw is fighting fires on all front. Well get you the analysis after this break. Plus, amazon goes after the fakers. Find out how theyre going legal to preserve the integrity. Burn, baby burn. Saturday night live makes a bold prediction of the outcome of the president ial race. Im been any sanders and come next november, i will be Hillary Clintons Vice President can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over one hundred of the webs leading job boards with a single click. Then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. And now you can use zip recruiter for free. Go to ziprecruiter. Com. Welcome back. It was a nice little finish to end the trade last week with the s p 500 after gains on thursday and friday managed to close out up 1 2 percent and the stoxx up 1. 43 . Look at the individual markets. Ftse 100 down a couple tenths of a percent. France up and italy up 0. 7 . Susan. In Corporate News we have Wincor Nixdorf up. Diebolds stock cash offer up. According to reports, the deal terms could be set to be finalized within the company fort night. Speaking of ipos, japans biggest privatization in close to three decades has moved a step closer to completion. The bank and insurance divisions priced at the top end of the market range. This is part of a threepronged ipo. The price of the Parent Company, japan host closings will take place on the 26th of october. Basically splitting up the company into three different subsidiaries, post insurance and the Parent Company itself. Ferrari has lined up the starter grid ahead of its eagerly anticipated ipo. Speaking at an awards event in washington, the ceo said he was confident. Were pricing tomorrow . The books close tonight, pricing is expected tomorrow and listing tomorrow under the ticker race. Very appropriate for the ferrari brand. They set it 48 upwards of 52 a share. That would give ferrari a 10 billion valuation. Right in the ballpark of what the price their Parent Company ceo was looking for. Back when the ipo plan was initially announced analysts suggested it might be in the neighborhood 56 to 7 billion. This is quite good news if they can get the upward target. There are other things to consider. The big part is to help Fiat Chrysler reduce the debt burden but in the ipo were only talking about 10 of the company. Earlier next year there are plans to offer 80 . The remaining 10 will stay within the ferrari family. A lot of excitement but some caution saying that the ipo market hasnt been very good. They say ferrari is bullet proof. They say 2007, 2008 they still sold 49er rar zblis theres a waiting list. Theyve always intentionally kept it around 7,000 units a year. Now hes saying they can retain the exclusivity and increase it to 9,000 units to 10,000 units. One of those ipos that i feel we should have done deep dive research on. Are you saying you havent . Real research. Oh, you mean out, the actual product of the company. Product testing . Exactly. I dont know why that didnt happen. Did you get to go . I have not. Theyre in new york. Hyde park. 200 people came out. That was twice the number that they expected. Theres a lot of interest to test drive, test the products. You likely will see ferraris lined up outside. Lets check in on vw as well. We have shares in volkswagen trading lower today. This comes after the police raided the automakers french headquarters as part of an Ongoing Investigation into the companys rigged diesel emissions test. It also took place at vws lamborghini headquarters. Theyre part of a federal government investigation, nancy, so when you hear these headquarters, these offices continually being raided, doesnt set the stage for good pr. This is hitting home in how far this investigation stretches across europe but also how anxious people are awaiting the final results of the investigation thats being conducted because people want to know how many people will be held responsible and who actually knew about the defeat devices. There were some reports that there could have been several variations of the defeat device. If that is true were talking about potentially more people involved in installing these. The lawsuits, we dont know the cost of the refittings. There are a lot of questions about what the costs will be. Nancy, thank you very much for that. Now the first of the Rugby World Cup finals kicks off on saturday. You were there. You were there. I was there for one of them, indeed, for the wales one. France was getting steam rolled by new zealand. Nine tries, 6213. A friend. Time in disarray. 6213 . Yeah, the favorites proving why, indeed, they are favorites. They absolutely destroyed it. Here comes wales. They put in a spirited run against south africa. They secured a fourpoint victory. Ireland sadly were outclassed by the argentina s

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