Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20151026 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange October 26, 2015

October Current Conditions comes in at 112. 6. That is down from 114 last month. The expectations 103. 8. Thats fractionally above last month which was 103. 3. Lets have a look also for the other line of the data. 112. 6. Weve had that one. 103. 8. So one of them fractionally better than expected. The other quite significantly lower than expected. Euro dollar, 110. 42. Up 1 4 today. The main reason weve seen the euro soften over the last few trading sessions is because of the ecb rhetoric last week as opposed to this date this morning. 110. 44 on the dollar. Susan. Good monday morning. Kicking off a new trading week in the u. S. Lets look ahead to u. S. Futures and what theyre implying for the open as we kick off the new week. Coming off four street weeks of gains for u. S. Markets. Right now the implied open is telling us well be a little bit lower, down below fair value. The implied value for s p 500 is down 7 points and dow jones down 18 points and the tech heavy nasdaq crossed 5,000. Looks like we are in for an 11 points decline. Heres a lead were getting from european markets. By the way, the german dax has put in the best months since 2011. This monday morning were not seeing the follow through from that rally that we saw at the end of last week in the u. S. And through the asia pacific markets. Today were looking at some areas where the ftse 100 is down. Pretty much flat. Lets check in on the lead that we got from the asia pacific and what happened during the asia pacific last night which is on track, by the way, for the best month in 2009 since the Global Financial crisis. We do expect the boj meeting this week which might include some more expansion when it comes to monetary stimulus. The first day of trade after the cut that we saw in Interest Rates and reserve requirements late on friday. Ill show you the asx 200 index didnt go anywhere. We showed movement. Lets get to units. Chinas growth target never set in stone. The countrys premiere leader said they never quoted to a 7 expansion. They will not defend it to the death. Lets bring in eunice. Since we are kicking off this fiveyear economic plan this week, what are we expecting . Reporter well, we could expect to see a lower growth target. The Chinese Communist party is meeting this week in order to debate and set their economic and social agenda for the next five years. This is a very important meeting. Its going to last for days where theyre going to be discussing a lot of important issues for the economy. Now theres some concern that during this meeting because the because of the slowdown that the leadership here has been backtracking away from economic reform. So were expecting to hear many of the leaders here to really reiterate for International Investors as well as other investors domestically that they are, in fact, committed to structural reform. Were expecting to hear that there is a very Important Role for the markets here and another important point is that were expecting that a new growth rate could be in the works. The current growth rate target for this year is around 7 and weve been hearing a lot of expectation and speculation even among government researchers that that target could be guided down to 6. 5 . Susan. Thats how they do it in china, right . All about central planning, five year plans, eunice. Lets get back to that move on friday. We were thinking about it. Why did they cut Interest Rates and reserve requirements heading into this week . It all makes sense now, to get them all set up for this economic planning meeting, eunice. But do you think its going to do anything from what i understand, from what i see, Interest Rates and reserve requirements dont have that big of an effect anymore. Reporter well, the chinese premiere did come out on state radio and he actually said that the government was going to continue to make reasonable use, his words, of Interest Rate cuts as well as rrr cuts in order to support the economy. Your point is very well taken about the Interest Rates. The economy here isnt as sensitive to Interest Rates as they are to, say, the rrr cut which would affect the banks and allow more liquidity to get into the system. However, i think that its very difficult to say what the motivations were behind the rate cuts on the Interest Rates as well as the rrr cuts. You could say that part of it is because the authorities didnt believe their own data. We see that for q3 the number came in at 6. 9 which beat expectations. There are a lot of investors who are wondering if the number looked strong at 6. 9 , why would the authorities come in with such an aggressive move. There are also people wondering if this is political, that the government because they were heading into this economic conference, that they wanted to be able to shore up the economy and make sure that it seems strong enough, you know, just because the eyes of investors are on the leadership here. They love doing it on a friday night or over the weekend, doing it once again. Thank you so much, eunice. Reporter very inconvenient for your social life on a friday. For you, yes, exactly, when you are having dinner, get the phone call. Thank you, eunice. Lets bring in Miranda Carter whos with us around the desk. Shes a Senior Analyst. This latest stimulus from the pboc does in fact come after gdp numbers are on the up side. Does it highlight that theyre much more concerned about the underlying situation . For these it has helped the economy where you are having quite a lot of stress. The sectors like the steel industry, cement, glass, youre actually seeing quite a lot of pressure and in the northeastern areas where youre seeing quite a big slowdown. It really helps that. The other big thing that you need to support is the proxy market. If you saw proxy market continue to be celebrated potentially fall in 2016, thats where you get basically the Going Forward recession, china dragging the rest of the world story from. Whereas, if we get that to stabilize, which we did see some signs of in september, then we could actually sort of get a slightly better economic reading. Is this a big enough move to stabilize the problem areas. Its a Small Movement but is it in fact a sign of things to come . Our Economic Team in shanghai thinks there would be tufurthers cpi goes down. You could see further Interest Rate cuts. Youre very likely to see bigger reserve requirement rate cuts. Thats basically what counts. Thats squeezing domestic money supply and so as they loosen up, you can get more funds into the system. The big thing, this is the thing that is doing the most to stimulate is the bond market. Thats where you see after the stock market boom its the bond market where all of the money is flowing into. Thats good for raising government funds. Youre seeing a bit of a problem there as well. The bubble youre saying in chinas bond market. Youre looking at slightly doubling of the corporate bonds. Youve seen very heavy Government Bond issues. The Exchange Market youre seeing very, very low yields come in. I would also argue that the bond markets must be domestically held in china. So what about i guess the equity markets . Weve called that a bubble, too. There are bubbles everywhere in china. Property bubbles. You name it. It depends where the money is flowing next. You saw all of the money flowing into the equity market, up 150 . Were getting that after its gone down 40 , the money is going somewhere else. It could either go overseas or back into the proxy market. What were seeing is a lot of the cost of the monetary easing. The lower Interest Rates, were getting that and seeing that going to the bond market. Thats basically where the next if you like proxy market is developing. Miranda, very quickly, the currency, anymore devaluation coming . The big thing is the sdr decision. Theyre very likely to get into the common reserve currency into september. This in some ways off sets it. Theyre calling it 5, 10 just in terms of overall devaluation. But youre getting Interest Rates and deposit rates. Thats natural deflation pressure, isnt it . Theyre getting their currency and everyone who has to invest in the assets, particularly the foreign Central Banks reweighting into domestic Government Bonds. Then you take a lot of that devaluation pressure out of the markets. Okay. Miranda, thank you so much. Miranda carr, Senior Analyst at haitong securities. Im going to recap some of that data in germany. The headline numbers, 103. 8. Current conditions is 112. 6, slightly below expectations. Also some lines coming out of it relating to volkswagen. They say the volkswagen scandal has no impact on the german Auto Industry. Theyre saying that the Business Climate in the Auto Industry rose in october. Still short term of course following the break in the scandal but thats the headlines coming out of the german ifo institute. 110. 24. Do you find that unbelievable that there is no impact on the Auto Industry from volkswagen given that they are the largest employer in germany . Its surprising particularly because it has forwardlooking confidence implications this particular reading, its not a backward looking data. Weve had a good five or six weeks of the scandal to settle in. Thats the headline. Interesting. Lets talk about apple because we have apple reporting earnings this week along with 1 3 of the s p. Apple, of course, will be the big one beginning to accept now online orders for the new version of its apple tv today. The new device, apple tv, will start 15949. It will feature a faster processor. Siri Remote Control and its own builtin app store. Its set to start shipping by the end of this week. Shares of apple up this hour over the trade. There are growing concerns, though, when it comes to that report card slowing iphone sales could weigh on the tech titans numbers. Going to report after the bell tomorrow. Apple, of course, is a huge component of the s p and the dow. How they do usually carries along the rest of the benchmark. Certainly does. Lets talk philips. Posted a negative bottom line number the same period last year. The dutch con gom mer rant lumileds expresses concern over the transaction. We spoke to the ceo first on cnbc and asked him about his outlook on emerging markets demand. It will take some time, in my view, before the emerging markets are all back at their historical growth rates. We see the impact of the currency volatility. Thats difficult to deal with. Nevertheless, im pleased with the 22 results improvement despite the currency volatility. Same with earnings. The Worlds Largest advertiser wpp beat analysts expectations by posting a Third Quarter like for like sales growth from 6 a year earlier. They were boosted by strength, they say, in the north american business. Speaking first to cnbc, wpps ceo martin said he was confident about growth coming from emerging markets despite the emerging growth in china. Were looking for an improved Fourth Quarter. I remain an unabashed bull on china. Antitrust regulators in australia have pushed back their decision until the 19 ths of november on the 70 billion shell takeover of bg group. This as the body weighed competition in the local gas market. In an exclusive interviewee asked the bg group ceo if the Australian Authorities arent offering enough sympathy given the Market Pricing pressures. I cannot comment on the process in australia. It is sharing in that process. We expect that it can be closed early 2016. And it comes to corporations in the market, i think that also crosses all operators and all Service Companies and Technology Companies because we have to deal with the fact that an industry that we need to provide energy more efficiently than we do today in order to develop Good Companies but also to provide the energy that the world needs decades into the future. Were going to go to break here on worldwide exchange. Our next guest is hoping to overstate uber. It will be a smooth ride . Find out after the break. Well the come back. Remind you of the headlines. Chinas stimulus fades. Theyre going to strike back in a Conference Call and apple tv goes on sales and its concerns the tech titans earnings could be hit by slower iphone sales. Lets talk about u. S. Politics. New iowa poll shows that ben carson now surging past donald trump in early voting. Nanks part to support from a number of conservative christians. The latest polling results show that the retired neurosurgeon is now backed by 28 of likely Republican Caucus participants. Thats up 10 Percentage Points since late august. Former frontrunner donald trump saw his support fall four points at 19 . When it comes to the democratic race they will bid farewell to another candidate. Lincoln chaffee announcing he will drop out of the primary race and end what many have called a longshot bid for the white house. Speaking at an annual democratic event in washington, d. C. , chafee summed up the ultimate message behind hits campaign one more time. As you may know, ive been campaigning on a platform of prosperity through peace but after much thought i have decided to end my campaign for the president today. Thank you. But i would like to take this Opportunity One last time to advocate for a chance be given to peace. Meantime, its happy birthday to Hillary Clinton. She turns 68 today. Hillary clinton and rival Bernie Sanders giving duelling speeches at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in des moines, iowa. Clinton took jabs on sanders about her shouting. Hillary turned 68 today. She looks great, dont you think . She does, indeed. Lovely. Dont forget, were just two days away, just two days away from the next republican president ial debate which you can catch right here on cnbc on october 28th. Take place in boulder, colorado. But, you know, its kind of reminiscent in 2012 when Rick Santorum took the early lead and faded towards the vote itself in the primaries. Yeah. We had, of course, romney taking over. Kind of similar, right . I think i think . On the republican side the fascinating thing is the way donald trump has opened it up for people other than bush because if we rewind sort of six or seven months, everyone almost assumed almost as strongly as Hillary Clinton would be for the democrats that jeb bush would be for the republicans. Hes changed the debate and ben carson now extraordinarily taking the lead. The favorite to the betting markets is, in fact, now marco rubio whos two to one to twin . Win it. So rubio has surged forward. He would have thought jeb bush was a long way ahead of him. Early bids because when it gets down to the voting, caucuses, primaries its a whole different picture. Its interesting that donald trump seeing that hes behind ben carson, hes starting to attack ben carson. That was something he was loathe to do. He was going after jeb bush for most of the campaign. Now hes calling ben carson low energy. Light when it comes to immigration policy. Looks like the gloves are on, arent they . Indeed. More politics coming up during the show. Im just going to come in and bring you some news on an earthquake that is a 7. 7 magnitude. It struck in northern pakistan. Its shaken buildings as far wide as afghan capitol of kabul. Also been felt in the indian capitol, new delhi, as well as in pakistan and islamabad. A 7. 7 magnitude earthquake in that area striking in northern pakistan. Well bring you more on that as and when we have it. Lets get back to the markets and the trading day and give you a rundown of what to watch for on this monday. Yes, we are kicking off the new week. Were going to get a read on the health of the Services Sector, services tmi purchasing Managers Index 9 45 eastern time. New home sales at 10 00 a. M. Eastern. Results on a latest Dallas Fed Survey at 10 30 a. M. On the earnings front well hear Earnings Report from xerox, Cheesecake Factory, first data and more. Investors are gearing up for day one of the fmocs twoday policy meeting which will kick off tomorrow. Hello, watson. You can see now . I can recognize people, analyze images and watch movies. Well i wrote a few books, did a speaking tour, i. Ive been helping people plan for retirement. And i help doctors identify cancer treatments. Is that all . I recently learned japanese. Yeah, i was being sarcastic. I havent learned sarcasm yet. I can help with that. Weve gotpeptocopter ummy town. When cold cuts give your belly thunder, pink relief is the first responder, so you can be a business boy wonder fix stomach trouble fast with pepto. The new cab comparison app signs up private hire drivers through a proprietary platform. To tell us more about this exciting venture, we have the founder of car group. This is kind of different from uber. This is antiuber because youre signing up for taxi sources already out there. We are not antiuber. 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