Around 80 around 2020 and we do not think that the 50 for many, many years is a likely scenario. Citron turns its sighting pushes shares into the red as the short seller says its a far worse offender than valeant in the drug maker scandal. Why would you buy a pc anymore . Thats the message from tim cook as the apple ceo says the watch could set a new sales record this quarter. Were coming off the worst sell off in six weeks time. In fact, the s p 500 is down for a fourth straight day. Lets check in on the implied open at this point and were below fair value. So looks like the s p is going to open lower by 5. 25 points. The Dow Jones Industrials pricing at losses of 35 points and the nasdaq. Looks like were pricing in a lower start of 11 points. Heres a look at what happened yesterday and that helped push the dow back into negative territory for this year, 2015. Were flirting with that positivenegative line but looks like thats the worst for all three benchmarks in six weeks. So pushing it back into the red. Heres the fear gauge and theres more fears. Its on what the central bank and Federal Reserve is going to do because it looks like the probability is now at 70 theyre going to hike next month. Exactly. Thats one reason for markets coming off the other is its off the back of such a blowout october that some level of correction is not that surprising. We got that similar move yesterday in european markets to the downside. The likes of the dax off 1. 5 . Were down again today here in europe but not in quite such a pronounced fashion. We opened above flat. We lost a bit of steam. Were down to a tune of about. 5 for the dax. Less than that for the ftse 100. Italy managing to get out a quarter percent gain. That likelihood of a rate hike in december weighed on oil prices over the last few at as although we are broadly flat today for wti. 43. 9. Brent is off about 47 on the nose. Oil prices may not recover before 2020 according to the iea. In the latest World Energy Outlook the agency says Current Trends including the continued growth of alternative energy will keep pressure on producers and lead to a price of around 80 per barrel by 2020. Speaking to cnbc earlier today the executive director said a decline in u. S. Shell production would drive a recovery in oil prices. About 50 oil price today and one of the main consequences of that is that this year, the Energy Investment are declining by 20 act and will continue to decline next year as well. We have never seen in the last 25 years Oil Investment declining in two Consecutive Years and this implications for the market and we expect it to recover around 80 dollar around 2020. And we do not think that if many, many years its a likely scenario. Whats really leading energy at the moment . First of all, the us. Shell oil which is the main driver of the glut now is going to decline with the prices. The second driver is iraq and we expect their Production Growth will slow down as a result of financial reasons and at the same time, we see in brazil, russia, and other main producing countries growth will not be as strong as it was before. Were looking at 5. 5 year high when it comes to the two year note. At least when it comes to the yield. Its all but priced in. The fed is going to hike next month. Comanager of the Strategic Bond fund joining us around the desk today. 70 probability now that the Federal Reserve is going to hike Interest Rates. All but in. I think so. To be fair ive been saying theyre going to move in september. They should have moved in september. They need to move and its not even now about where the economy is today. Its about where its going in the future and theres a really high chance shes going to shift. We think she moves but a slow path. One and done . One and done this year. Possible more next year, maybe two. Given the latest jobs numbers there is but other data sets theres disappointments there but does she have to at least try it this time and deal with the consequences next career . It can be difficult to tell what janet yellen is looking for. Suddenly external factors become important. I think she needs to move because people are making the wrong decision on investments. Thats the key point. They make the wrong decisions. What are the wrong decisions . You go into schemes where youre not getting enough of the risks that youre taking and you need higher Interest Rates to support your banks. Look at bank revenues. They have been really poor. People have been buying into banks with the expectations theyll hike Interest Rates for the first time in ten years. But everybody keeps talking about the spread with junk yields and the riskfree rates. Is that telling us theres a bubble in risk free loans . Possibly. We think yields go higher. Ten year u. S. Treasuries are probably lower in europe. Its a different question to the u. S. I guess. At the moment, probably on the rich side for u. S. Treasuries and theres probably not a lot. If its one and done this year or maybe one and two next year you might pop another 10 or 15. Possibly basis points. Its modest. But at what point do they start saying this is a descent rate. You touched on the u. K. There. Are we in a similar boat as the u. S. . This is difficult with the u. K. When do they decide to do it . You could get involved in a lot of politics next year. What about changing the tune in mark carney changes his tune as often as janet yellen does. I think mark does follow janet in the fact that he will put up rates after she does. If they go up in u. S. In december the chances they go up in the u. K. Rise as well. Thats probably Second Quarter next year rather than the end of next year. If he does move its a tough one to call. A lot of politics and referendum. Is super mario easier to follow than those two. Well, dont play the fed and dont play mario. Thats my theory on life. And in a way i think we see ecb stimulus coming in december. Possibly another 10 billion a month in materials of purchases. He has a lot more things he can bring out to really try and push people out of bonds. German yields are 0. 6 . That could come down lower. Were looking for. 2 in german ten year yields. At that point, its tough to hold on to them. Between german ten year and u. S. Ten year, its at 170. Close to where it was in march. Has that spread got too wide at the moment . Possibly not. If were seeing the u. S. Go up another 10 or 20 basis points we could hit 200. Fantastic. Thank you for joining us. Comanager of the aberdeen strategic fund. We have a big named visitor to the euro zone. Apple ceo called the death of a pc in an interview. Tim cook is saying that the ipad pro said to be released imminently will replace the notebook and desktop but consumers would still need their smartphones of course. He also hinted at more Wearable Health technology but as for the watch itself its not going to be a Health Care Device because that fda approval cycle takes way too long. He gets set to address a crowd at Bocconi University in millan. He is expected on stage in about 40 minutes or so. The start of the Academic Year and its november. When does italy go back to school. Thats right. Thats a nice long summer holiday. They break for christmas too dont they . I dont know. Well have to get details on that from claudia over the break. Maybe we should have gone to school in italy. Anyway, still to come here on the show, a bumpy road for porsche. Stay tuned on how theyre impacting the luxury car makers bottom line. That and much more coming up on Worldwide Exchange. The speech will mark the start of the Academic Year there. Hes expected on stage in about 30 minutes or so. Meantime, we do have the former italian Prime Minister and former european commissioner at the podium. Really warming it all up for the main event which is apple and tim cook set to take the stage and not a bad way to kick off an Academic Year as you pointed out wilf. At close to beginning of november. But were not quite sure whether it is the start of the Academic Year. But either way a nice lineup for the university there to have mario monte himself, a big name, and tim cook too. Well be back to that when the speech does start. Meanwhile, porsche prochfits halved as the volkswagen scandal weighed on the german auto maker but shares are trading higher. They released their results already so they were some what priced in. Up. 5 on porsche shares today. They own over 30 of the Capital Stock down slightly from 32. 4. You have to feel sorry for those flying on lufthansa in the past few days. They have been stranded at airports and getting to headlines coming through from the air carrier, big one based in germany and looks like there will be a temporary injunction. At least the airline filed a temporary injunction against the Cabin Crew Union. Theyre in the labor cores and they said the Cabin Crew Union ufo said they will continue to strike at least until the end of this week. So hopes that there would be a swift resolution to this industrial dispute thats been costing the airline more than 10 million a day have been dealt a blow with the ufo rejecting that improved pay offer that came yesterday evening so the strike should go on until at least this friday but as you know, looks like that injunction has been filed in court. Negotiations between the airline and its Cabin Crew Union are on going. Meantime in the u. S. , mcdonalds is holding its annual investor day today in new york and Analysts Expect the fast food giant to announce plans to take on more debt in order to return more cash to shareholders. Mcdonalds may also cut more costs and increase the number of restaurants it plans to sell to franchisees. They expect the company to raise its dividend by 10 or so. Mcdonalds shares, we can get a check on them and how theyre performing with gains arou around. 1 . Lions gates swings to a Second Quarter loss partly due to a Disappointing Box Office take. Theyre taking a 7 million write down on the vin diesel flop, the last witch hunter and American Ultra also underperformed. They expect revenue from orange is the new black and royals to drive its second half results and also has a final hunger games movie on schedule this quarter which should open next friday. Lions gate dropped 8 in after hours and theyre looking for rescue. Hopefully for the mocking jay. Really, really long those films. Have you watched it . I watched a couple of them and they divided the books up. So that annoyed me. Just stopped in the middle of the film and it was already long and boring. Katniss. Gap is expecting weaker than expected Third Quarter results. Same store sales dropped 3 last month with a 15 decline at banana republic. The loan bright spot old navy. Gap is expected to report earnings on november 19th. Shares falling 5 in trade. So we have some bad news for Holiday Shopping procrastinators. Leading brands are warning that theyre already running low on supplies on some of their most popular items. Courtney reports on this years most sought after festive gifts. Tis the season for holiday headaches. The National Retail federation says shoppers have already started their Holiday Shopping before halloween leaving many items already in short supply even though black friday is still more than two weeks away. For the second straight Holiday Season the iconic l. L. Bean boots are limited in supply with some styles back ordered until the end of february 2016. Jim silver, ceo of ttpm says many lego products are selling phenomenally as are the paw patrol toys. Star wars collectibles are early best sellers like the figures sold only at the disney store. The baby toy is back ordered until november 20th. So with early sell outs industry watchers are telling shoppers dont wait. We seeing robust sells and Online Sellers having a much bigger role. So as a shopper, dont wait for that last minute sale. I know thats a temptation to kind of all right im going to hedge my bets until the last minute. If theres a toy your child really, really wants, air on the side of buying that early. The fashionista might be upset when h m items arent there. The camera drone unavailable on amazon with spotty availability at toys r us over the last several days. According to a survey, a shortage of in demand smartphones will cause them the biggest problems followed by shortages for video games. Guitar hero live and star wars battle front. Many experts think inventory levels are higher than last year in part due to forecasts for a descent holiday sales year plus elevated inventories in the after past of last years west coast port projection but predicting demand and ordering the supply is a science and an art. Too much inventory is a financial burden. Too little can leave shoppers disappointed. Sell outs can create positive buzz for manufacturers and retailers involved but too many empty handed shoppers isnt good either. The goal is to match supply and demand as closely as possible though hot items can be hard to predict. One in four americans say they would be willing to play dirty if thats what it takes to walk out of the store with the last hot holiday gift. I can tell you first in line break down the door on black friday, wilfred frost. Oh, no, shopping when its busy is a complete nightmare. Shop out of season. The lesson is you have to shop in advance. Think of my present now. Think of it. I already am. Dont worry. Lets talk about starbucks. Its not all festive because there is some controversy over the coffee cup this Holiday Season. Yeah, so that cranberry green logo coming under fire. Okay. The light obscured it. Theres red and green and white on that. The light obscured it. Critics have taken to social media to complain that the design is too simplistic. Give us your view in our online poll and tell us whether you like them, dislike them and dont mind. Thats on cnbc. Com. I brought my cup. I even saved it for this chat. So were going to chat about it but apparently its not festive enough. Its november and way more festive than i would be expecting. Its good. Whats wrong with it . A christian evangelist basically posted a video on facebook thats been watched 13 million times and he is pacicly saying its not festive enough according to him. He says starbucks wanted to take christ and christmas off their cups. So far i think its fine. I think so too. But thats what starbucks is saying. You can rcreate your own christmas stories this year. Were being told to move on to talk about the 8 polling president ial candidates facing off in wisconsin tonight in their fourth debate. Nbc tracie potts has been standing by. So tonights debate is supposed to focus on the economy which could bring up things like the Keystone Oil Pipeline that the president just rejected, the transpacific trade partnership. They could talk about the Federal Reserve, raising Interest Rates here as a result of a good jobs report at the end of last week but theres other issues surrounding this debate that will come up as well. Especially since the wall street journal is a cosponsor. It was them that initially reported about ben carson and the latest allegations involving his past and whether he protected white students during a riot when he was in high school. Other issues about him going to westpoint, getting a scholarship, and he says are nitpicking 20 or 30 years ago but the questions continue to plague him so those could come up tonight. Also jeb bush and marco rubio, the two floridians on the panel tonight. They got into it at the last debate. This time its likely we could see that again. Especially since both of them are already in wisconsin. Theyre both trying to get the endorsement of scott walker. That could bring the support of a lot of evangelicals along with it. Thank you for that. Now lets remind you of the headlines. Losing steam. European stocks reverse gains after the dow slips back into negative territory for the year yesterday. The iea says Oil Investment has fallen for the second Consecutive Year as it predict ace slow price recovery and alt the top of his gain, bumper profits in the Third Quarter thanks to higher mobile and add revenues. Were back in two minutes. Is a really big deal. U with aches, fever and chills. Theres no such thing as a little flu. So why treat it like its a little cold . Theres something that works differently than overthecounter remedies. Attack the flu virus at its source with prescription tamiflu. And call your doctor right away. Tamiflu is fda approved to treat the flu in people 2 weeks and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. Before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if youre pregnant, nursing, have Serious Health conditions, or take other medicines. If you develop an allergic reaction, a severe rash, or signs of unusual behavior, stop taking tamiflu and call your doctor immediately. Children and adolescents in particular may be at an increased risk of seizures, confusion or abnormal behavior. The most common side effects are mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. Ask your doctor about tamiflu and attack the flu virus at its source. Heres a look at u. S. Futures. We are below fair value at this point. S p 500 should be closing and opening down 5 points after pricing in losses, 37. Nasdaq lower by 10. 5. Lets also have a quick look at european markets which despite open