We both always struggle with the dates. Should have that preprogrammed. Either way, a very good morning to everyone if youre just getting up. Oil prices and fed speak in focus this morning. Well bring you up to speed on both in a minute. Plus, well be talking politics. Here are the projected results from last nights gop caucuses in nevada. Donald trump taking the top spot by a pretty big margin, followed by marco rubio number two and ted cruz number three. More from the campaign trail later in the half hour. Looking ahead to super tuesday with clearly trump gaining momentum. Three states hes won in a row. Absolutely right. Hes got the momentum behind him. Can marco rubio be the one to stop him . Doesnt look like it at the moment. First, a check on u. S. Equity futures at this hour. We are pointing to a negative open. Yesterday, all three of the main boards down 1 . U. S. Equities really dancing to oils tune with the main orchestrator saying the saudis wouldnt cut production. Were looking at the dow called to open 72 points lower. It really has been a story of the old vulnerabilities that were with us in the beginning of 2016, namely the dropping price of oil, the falling chinese currency, which also has been leading to some declines. Worries about the Global Economy very much still with us in the stock market. Absolutely. That and the other big fear this year has been Central Banks. Negative rates. Speaking of that, fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer says he doesnt know what the central bank will decide to do about Interest Rates in march. In december, the fed pencilled in four rate hikes in 2016. Speaking at an oil market conference in houston, fischer says now future policy actions are by no means predetermined. He says its possible the market selloff this year may not pecev damage the economy, and there are signs of a pick up in growth in wages. While theyre looking into it, the fed doesnt have any plans to use negative Interest Rates just yet. Have a listen. Were still looking at it. We havent got this figured out exactly. Fortunately, were a little way away from there. Stanley fischer echoing janet yellen when she testified on capitol hill saying she didnt know if it was legal. Its something theyre looking into. They have to be looking into it because japan just went into negative Interest Rates. Europe is in negative Interest Rates. A lot of other European Countries are there. Is it something the fed would consider using as ammunition if the economy did take a turn lower . But so far the Economic Data in this country hasnt been that bad. Lets take a step back. Even before the Economic Data, they dont have to look into it, and i hope they do not. I think it would be a massive mistake to go into negative interest sign of desperation by the europeans and by the japanese. The markets certainly rel act negatively to it, even though the boj and European Central bank are hinting they might have to go farther down that road. I think it becomes a fight to the bottom of your currency. Youre not really doing anything domestically to the fundamental economy by going into negative Interest Rates. Thats what weve learned so far from the japanese. They havent boost consumption at all. Anyway. Uncharted territory. Indeed. But one thing is for sure. It doesnt look like on the fed side were going to have lots and lots of tightening, which just two months ago is what many people predicted. Look at the treasury market. Yields moving back down. Lets check in on oil prices this morning. The big driver has been the saudi oil minister, as we said earlier, dashing hopes for a Production Cut. That led to a decline yesterday. Another decline today, down 2. 7 . He did say producers will hopefully meet next month and negotiate an output freeze, adding to the pressure late yesterday. Oil prices really weighing on Global Equities today. Yeah, that pile up of stockpiles has been weighing on the price. Well get more official numbers from the government later this morning, 10 30 eastern. Lets get a check on Global Markets this morning. As wilfred said, theres red across the screen. Equity markets seem to be following oil prices lower. Those losses are really picking up right now with the german dax down 1. 7 . Seeing red arrows pretty much across the board. Spain also down more than 1. 5 . Check out the british pound. More pressure on sterling. This currency continues to get beaten up as the politics flame over this brexit talk. Were still about four months away from the actual referendum on june 23rd. But wilfred, theres pressure. The market is voting, and theyre selling this currency on uncertainty, on risks potential for the u. K. Economy and just the noise. Absolutely right. Down 0. 7. Its a sevenyear loi. The pound, incredibly soft on both the 12month and one or two month your money back here. All the dollars i have to save and i go back a rich man if this continues. I think the weakness continuing this week is quite a big surprise. The announcement at the weekend that were going to have it in june, saw a big decline on monday. Might have thought thats the decline. Well now wait until we get closer to the vote to see further weakness. Showing that people very, very worried about what the prospect of this brexit vote could lead to. Lets show you what happened overnight in asia as well. There was some red in japan. The yen has been strengthening. Those safe havens are back in demand over the last two trading sessions. That includes the yen, treasuries, gold. That weighs on the japanese stock market. Hang seng and hong kong down more than 1 . China actually managed to eke out a gain of almost 1 . The Infrastructure Sector leading shanghai on hopes of investment from beijing. Lets get to Corporate News this morning. Honeywell says it doesnt see regulatory hurdles for the deal with united technologies. Honeywell suggests a merger would, in its words, maintain a strong Investment Grade rating and have higher Free Cash Flow. Today theyre both relatively flat compared to big moves earlier in the week. Now to the latest in the battle between apple and the u. S. Government. The Justice Department is demanding the tech giant help unlock at least nine other iphones in addition to that iphone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters. Apples lawyer says the company is fighting the governments demands in at least seven of those cases. Stocks to watch today, Canyon Capital saying its concerned yahoo s management doesnt have a sense of urgency. The stock yahoo is up about half a percent today. Airbus reversing part of its Production Cut plans on the heels of posting inline 2015 profits. Theres been a rebound in demand for a key aircraft model, which could help the firm generate extra cash. Avis swung to a Fourth Quarter loss. Its guidance also disappointed, down 13 in premarket. A few more movers for you here. First solar cutting its sale guidance for the year after reporting a dip in quarterly revenue. This as the firm pushed off projects into 2017. Dreamworks reporting an increase in quarterly revenue, higher licensing fees, and the tv release of its new movie home. Silver run acquisition corp. Raises 450 million in its ipo in what could be the biggest offering so far this year. That roughly doubles the amount of cash raised by the four other ipos in 2016. The deal pricing at 10 a share. Silver run is a private run equity. The ceo was one of the most successful executives in the shale drilling boon. And more retail earnings and housing data. February Flash Services pmi out at 9 45 a. M. Eastern time. Thats followed by january new home sales at 10 00. After better existing home sales yesterday. Three Federal Reserve officials speaking out today. On the earnings front, lowes, target, and tjx and marshalls all report before the opening bell. After the close, well hear from hp, l brands, and salesforce. Com. After macys posted better results thanks to the Colder Weather in january, and home depot almost 9 comp store sales. A couple big surprises. Were going to drill down with those in a few minutes time. In the meantime, lets drill down on hp. Investors dont seem too optimistic about todays quarterly report. Shares selling off more than 3 yesterday ahead of the results. Landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. Good morning. The street is looking for earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of 12 billion, but beyond the numbers, heres what to watch. First, expect pc and printer headwinds as pc demand declines continue. Pay attention to how hp has maintained market share. On the printer side, expect elevated inventory levels and an intense pricing environment. Second, watch Free Cash Flow for 2016. Its expected to be about 2. 5 billion. Thats important because it will provide the framework for future buybacks and dividend increases. And the third thing to watch, valuation. The stock has fallen 15 since the november 1st split. It still trades about five times earnings. That could be offset by product headwinds. That could mean the firm will slash guidance, which many analysts are expecting. All right. Well watch for those results later today. Landon, thank you. When we come back, the state of the american consumer. Retail earnings, as we mentioned, in focus again today. Well get the inside line from industry analysts. First, as we head to break, we want to hear from you. Our twitter question this morning, which currency has the most bearish outlook . Its too hard. The british pound, japanese yen, chinese yuan, or euro . Sara loves this question. Wilfred so good to me. [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable Global Commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. Great job. mandarin cut it out. See you tomorrow. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Watching tvs get sharper, youve had it tough. Bigger, smugger. And you . Rubbery buttons. Enter the x1 voice remote. Now when someone says. Show me funny movies. Watch discovery. Record this. Voila. Remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. The x1 voice remote is here. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Lets get you up to speed on the market action. Oil prices sliding again, in general leading most equity markets down. Although, a little bit of green, as you can see, in shanghai. Up 0. 9 . Infrastructure names going higher on hopes of investment from beijing. In europe, its a more clear negative story. Red across the board as you can see. The ftse 100 down 1. 4 . Relatively outperforming the rest. A little bit of a surprise, given its heavy energy weighting. Indeed, given brexit fears continuing, the pound hitting a sevenyear low this morning. What does this all mean for u. S. Equities . Theyre pointing lower as well today, following over 1 of declines for all three yesterday. Were looking at about 100 or so point decline for the dow this morning. Sara . After stocks fell off their sixweek highs yesterday. Wilfred, thanks. Now to todays trade of the day. Earnings season is almost over. Companies are free to support their share prices with big stock buybacks. Weve heard this from dave costen of goldman sachs, that its a catalyst for the market. How can you benefit from this trend . Our data team found an etf for that, that actually tracks companies with a history of buyback announcements after earnings season. The ticker is pkw. Turns out it did outperform the s p 500 in the month after earnings season. Interesting. You like this one, dont you . I didnt know there was an etf for stock buybacks. For more, go to cnbc. Com and check out cnbc pro. Though, it is really thought to be a catalyst here as we exit earnings season. Demand for stock from the companies themself. Its a theme we saw all year last year. They should be hiking dividends instead. Or investing in their business. Hiring, spending, innovation. They love the technicality, the Financial Engineering of a buyback over just giving cash out. It has been very popular. Meanwhile, retailers are dominating the earnings scene. Macys beat forecast. On squawk box, the ceo said he saw signs of hope. Take a listen. The business got better in january. Know why . It got colder. Our business got better. Earnings improved as a result of that. I think thats why the quarter got better than we anticipated. Joining us now from london is the president of sw retail advisers and cnbc retail analyst. Good morning. Should target benefit like macys did from the Colder Weather when we hear results later this morning . I think the big theme here across the board, whether it was dillards or nordstrom or macys, it was a businemiss on bottom line. Retailers are stuck with a huge amount of inventory. Thats been the pressure here. I would expect the same from target. Also, i think targets been doing the right things. Theyve been aggressive on Free Shipping for holiday. Theyve also stopped trying to be all things to all people. Theyre very focused. Well see what their margins look like today. Whether its cold weather or anything else, are you surprised weve seen some resilience in headline Sales Numbers for some of these retailers . Did that rate hike in december not really hurt sentiment at all for the consumer. Well, i also think you have to put that in context of most of these retailers guided down in a big way well before they reported, including macys. Yes, january picked up a little bit with the cold weather, but if you look at the average retailer like a macys, they guided to 2016 earnings 20 below 2015 earnings. So theres still a problem here on the top line. Stacy, when it comes to the strategy for picking these stocks, is it as simple as follow where the consumer is going . Terry lundgren in that interview yesterday said, how many cars can they buy . But when it comes to autos and home improvement, thats where the action is. Department stores, not so much. Yeah, i mean, Department Stores have probably been under the most pressure, particularly as the apparel cycle is just not all that exciting. You look at a home depot, yes, they benefitted from the weather, but their comps accelerated in a huge way on a twoyear basis. People are spending on their home. Theyre spending on cars. Theyre spending on technology. Theyre not so much spending on what they wear. Unless its sporting apparel like a lulu lemon or nike. Yes, but also, i think you have to worry about all the copy cats coming into the market. Primark, who just has a Couple Stores in the states, they do an amazing who,o amazing workout line. The bottoms, the leggings, are about 10 versus 100 at lulu. What about on the highfashion end . Any positives you can look at, at the moment . Yeah, so you were just talking about brexit and the weakness in the pound here. A slight bit of good news here is that if youre a u. K. Retailer or a luxury retailer with a big european exposure, im starting to see a little bit of tourism flow back into london. We know that customer has been scared to go to paris. Now the pound has finally come down. Maybe a little tourism flow will help out the likes of burberry here. Stacy, thanks so much for joining us this morning. Sara, do you think im going to be flying home to do my shopping soon enough . You can with the currency. The sterling rout continues. And you can get 10 leggings now. Who knew . When we come back, a big win for donald trump in nevada last night, but can the gop president ial front runner dominate super tuesday . Thats his next test. Well discuss it next. First, as we head to break, heres todays forecast from the weather channels reynolds wolf. Hey, wilfred and sara. Taking a look at the rough weather we can expect not only for the morning but a good part of the day for the eastern seaboard. In fact, all your action is going to be from the midatlantic southward. Good chance of strong thunderstorms from chicago to detroit. Its all about the snow. Some of that could be fairly heavy. You make your way towards the west, better conditions for you. Smooth sailing. No major travel issues. In terms of the temperatures, its going to be fairly mild in the desert southwest. Los angeles, 81 degrees. 63 in dallas. Atlanta, 62 and very muggy. New york city, rain may be in the picture with 57 degrees. For the Nations Capital clear down to central florida, good chance of strong storms. Very muggy for you. That Severe Weather threat may continue into the evening hours. Folks, well see you on the other side of the commercial break. Youre watching cnbc. The flu virus. Its a really big deal. And with fever, aches, and chills, mom knows it needs a big solution an antiviral. Dont kid around with the flu, call your doctor within the first 48 hours of symptoms and ask about prescription tamiflu. Attack the flu virus at its source with tamiflu, an antiviral that helps stop it from spreading in the body. Tamiflu in liquid form is fda approved to treat the flu in people two weeks of age and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. Before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if youre pregnant, nursing, have Serious Health conditions, or take other medicines. 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