Wor Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Lets get straight to the markets. U. S. Equity futures. We had a positive start to march, a decent second of march, although in more muted fashion. The third of march looking to continue that positivity, albeit just slightly. Were looking at only two points up for the dow. Were fractionally higher in this early premarket trade. While you were sleeping, heres what you missed overnight in asia. New numbers showing momentum in chinas Services Sector has slowed. Business activity remaining in expansion mode. Thats key, but only at a modest pace. In an interview, chinas Vice Central Bank governor said the country will keep a prudent Monetary Policy. He also said theyll keep the yuan basically stable against a basket of currencies this year. So more communication from the chinese authorities. A number of big market events that could come up and have an impact on asian stocks, including Chinas National Peoples Congress begins meeting this weekend. Then the ecb and the bank of japan meetings next week, followed by the fed meeting after that. Heres how the major averages closed overnight. Mixed session. Gains in china, gains in japan. The yen has started weakening with this upbeat sentiment around the Global Markets. Thats helped the japanese stock market bounce back. China closing higher as well. China in particular responding more to that rrr cut at the start of the week. Little bits of data that have been negative. That Shows Confidence coming back in investors eyes and the chinese authorities ability to stick to their aim. A developing story out of asia this morning. Just hours after the u. N. Security council slapped new sanctions on north korea. South korea is accusing the north of a new provocation. South Koreas Defense Ministry says north korea fired several shortrange projectiles into the sea. The sanctions on pyongyang are the toughests in 20 years and came in reaction to the norths recent nuclear test and longrange rocket launch. Lets give you a picture of what europe is doing in the early trade right now. Also a mixed picture. The euro just turned higher. It was weaker overnight. It is now stronger against the u. S. Dollar. What youre seeing is fractional declines. Actually, the dax is pretty much flat over in germany. So is the french market. The ftse 100 with a gain, same with italy. You mentioned china and the upbeat mood and upbeat tone. Copper is actually at a threemonth high. The tenyear treasury yield is at the highest in a month. A lot of these moves are showing a rebound, oil among them. Lets have a look at oil itself. Not rebounding strongly today, but as sara already said, its had a decent week. Wtis flat. Its at 34. 7. Brent down slightly at 36. 8. Later this morning, do watch out for natural gas Inventory Data due at 10 30 a. M. Eastern. Gas prices are trading around the lowest levels in 17 years. Were at 1. 675 today. I mentioned some of the cross currents. Lets show you the Broader Markets, including the move in the treasury market. Less demand for those safehaven government bonds has pushed the yield higher. In fact, the twoyear yield has shown a big move. Its at the highest since back in january. The tenyear yield also above 1. 85. The dollar has made a move higher on the back of some positive data surprises in the u. S. Economy, showing perhaps were not actually entering a recession after all. Were going to get a load of Economic Data today. Well see if thats confirmed. The dollar higher against the japanese yen, heading toward 1. 14. An important psychological indicator overnight showing things are a little calmer. Lets show you whats happening with gold. Interestingly, it has been gaining along with stocks and along with the dollar. Continuing what has been a strong year for the price of gold. Its up again today, continuing this winning streak. If you step back and sort of look at what has changed into this week, i mentioned the u. S. Data. Its a little bit better. Oil has firmed. This is going through sort of investor checklist. Its in the mid30s 37 were away from the low 20s, which is super scary for banks. The chinese currency stable. Its a little stronger overnight again today. As i mentioned, the chinese policymakers have been more communicative. A really silly point to make, its march. I wonder whether weve got february behind us, january and february. Clearly lots of weakness in january. Lots of volatility in february. Maybe people had cash balances. Also a little focus on central banks. The ecb has got a lot of mention. The euro, albeit flat today, has fallen to 1. 08. People saying theyre expecting more easing on the back of that move. Investors clearly softening the euro ahead of that. I want to point out the move in the other direction from the german bond yield. Thats seen yields tick up, matching the u. S. Yield tick up. Clearly yields rising for the german bund would suggest other expectations. It doesnt highlight it that closely there. If we go to a closer time frame, its at 0. 2. We need to get to about 0. 13. Not a huge move. This last week when people have been mentioning, oh, were expecting easing, youd expect to see the other direction. All im saying is i dont think its nailed on that weve got the expectation in investors eyes that we move further into negative rates. Nonetheless, the japanese have moved, and its now mario draghi deciding what to do. The fed meeting, which the market is not pricing in any Interest Rate increase for the month of march. Though, the odds have been increasing slightly on the back of these beats in Economic Data. European stocks, the financials have roared back. In the middle of february when they hit the lowest point since 2013, they have now rebounded. Euro stocks, 13 since then. Well, i think the financials roaring back has been a clearer move in u. S. Financials. They certainly have bounced back. Much more selective in europe. Results still have been ticking out over the last week or two. Standard chartered last week tanking off the back of its results. Barclays tanking off its results. Today, the busiest day of the week for Economic Data. Jobless claims out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern, expected to hold steady around the 270,000 level. Also, 8 30 we get Fourth Quarter productivity, which is expected to be revised slightly lower with a forecasted drop of 3. 4 . Dalgs fed president rob kaplan speaks about the economy this morning. Kroger reports earnings before the opening bell while broadcom, h r block and Hp Enterprise out after the bell. Kroger earnings are going to be good. Its an Economic Indicator in themselves because its the biggest grocer in the u. S. Outside of walmart. There has been noise from walmart about food deflation. In other Corporate News today, apple formally objecting to a judges order directing the company help the government unlock the iphone at San Bernardino shooter. This is essentially a procedural move. The aclu filing a friend of the court brief to the magistrate judge yesterday, urging her to reject the government efforts. Chesapeake Energy FounderAubrey Mcclendon died in a single car crash yesterday, one day after being charged with breaking federal antitrust laws. Reporter Aubrey Mcclendon was a natural gas titan who revolutionized the Energy Industry. He died in a single car crash in Oklahoma City. The only occupant in a Sport Utility vehicle that slammed into a concrete bridge support. He went left of center, traveling at a high rate of speed, and collided into the west embankment wall of the overpass. His vehicle was engulfed in flames immediately, and he did not survive the accident. Reporter mcclendons death follows an announcement on tuesday that he had been indicted for allegedly conspireing to rig bids to buy oil and natural gas leases in northwest oklahoma between december of 2007 and march 2012. Mcclendon, a key player in the u. S. Shale boom, helped to found Chesapeake Energy in 1989, before stepping down in 2013 after a series of investigations into his business practices. Chesapeake filed a lawsuit against him in 2015, accusing him of misappropriating company data. He founded American Energy partners after leaving chesapeake, where he served as chief executive. The company put out this statement. Aubreys tremendous leadership, vision, and passion for the Energy Industry had an impact on the community, the country, and the world. Were tremendously proud of his legacy and will continue to work hard to live up to the unmatched standards he set for excellence and integrity. Mcclendon, a duke graduate, was a part owner of the National Basketball associations Oklahoma City thunder. He denied the charges filed against him. Reaction is coming in from people inside and outside the oil industry. In a statement, t. Boone pickens says, ive known Aubrey Mcclendon for 25 years. He was a major player in leading the Stunning Energy renaissance in america. He was charismatic and a true american entrepreneur. No individual is without flaws, but his impact on American Energy will be long lasting. Carl icahn, who helped lead to his ouster in 2013, saying, quote, Aubrey Mcclendon was one of the brightest men ive ever dealt with. I personally always found him to be a gentleman in our interactions. Of course, the obituaries are coming out. All of them talking about how influential he was in terms of shaping the shale revolution in this country, but all of them also, you know, marking his stunning rise followed by what has been a checkered past as well and what he stood for in terms of excess in the industry, highly indebted, and running into some legal trouble, including all the way up to a day before his death. Indeed. Thoughts and prayers remain with his family. Right. Lets switch gears. Stocks to watch today. Costco reporting lower than expected quarterly earnings. Decreased january traffic and a strong green back weighed on the retailer. Its flat in remarket trade. Samsonit session, reportedly nearing a deal to buy tumi holdings. It, too, is flat in premarket. American eagle saw its sales rise during the holiday quarter. The retailer also offering upbeat guidance for the current quarter. Its risen just over half a percent. Ibm is suing the daily deal site groupon on, claiming they infringed on four of its patents. The linkedin ceo saying he will decline his annual stock compensation. Instead, hell pass the bonus to his employees. And adidas giving e ining an up outlook. The Sportswear Company is hopeful for a boost from 2016 events like the rio olympics. The ceo will be on squasquawk later at 6 40 a. M. Hes the outgoing ceo. The company has struggled under his watch lately to catch up with the likes of under armour. I wonder how much of it is kanye west and those yeezy shoes, which are so explosive. I dont know if its that or soccer stars like david beckham. Doubleline capital is shutting down its stockpicking fund. The threeyearold fund never gained much traction and is down 12 this year. They decided to close the fund at a time when investors are more interested in index funds than actively managed ones. Still to come, the dollar rising ahead of tomorrows big jobs report. Plenty of other factors at check. A currency check from the bank of tokyo coming up. First, we want to hear from you. Our twitter question today, is the u. S. Economy on an upswing . Worldwide exchange will be right back. Well have answers to that question and much more. Your path to retirement may not always be clear. But at t. Rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. So wherever your Retirement Journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. Call us or your advisor t. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. You gein your car. Odors you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this. {ding} eliminate odors youve gone nose blind too, for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip. Wow, it smells good in here. So you and your passengers can breathe happy. Earth hour is about empowering people making a difference to change Climate Change with passion and excitement earth hour is about inspiring Climate Action celebrating a Global Movement and impact join us at earthhour. Org 19th march at 8 30pm welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. A very good morning to you. March the 1st, big gains. March 2nd, small gains. March 3rd, were looking at even smaller but still gains. Were looking at a little bit of green. The dow called to open up by about five points. As we look at european trade, a similar story over the last couple trading days. Again, not too much happening there. Weve got france down, the ftse 100 and germany up. Basically flat as a whole for european trade. Sara . Wilfred, todays trade of the day. Prices for junk bonds are spiking and are now flat for the year. Our data team crunched some numbers to determine what to buy if that kind of momentum continues. Looking at the hyg, the etf that tracks the u. S. Denominated highyield corporate debt. When it rallies, so did these etfs. The rsx, the russiabacked etf. The ewz, which tracks brazil, among others. Clearly theres an emerging marketing tie in. For more, go to cnbc. Com and check out cnbc pro. Part of this overall sort of risk recovery. High yield selling off when commodities sell off when emerging markets sell off. Now were seeing a reversal of that. And another key factor for both of those asset classes, em and high yield, is what the fed is doing with Interest Rates. Again, this u. S. Data weve been seeing coming out this week a little stronger, a bit more coming today. Big one coming tomorrow. Very important. On jobs. When we come back here actually, were going to talk about currencies and the u. S. Data picture right now and how to trade all of that. So Global Markets of course waiting on tomorrows big jobs number. Central banks will be watching that as there have been many factors around the world. In an interview earlier this morning, negative rates may break the system soon. If you try to run the global system with the systemically important banks all in negative territory, i can guarantee you that something will break. The system is not built to operate at negative rates throughout the world. The system is not built to operate in negative rates. Lets get another perspective. Joining us is the european head of Global Markets research at the bank of tokyo. Thanks for joining us. I suppose this week has slightly increased the possibility of not negative rates but a rate hike again in the u. S. As we look at the fed meeting next week. There will be more focus on the rest of the data that comes out this week, particularly friday. Where do you stand out in on what you expect the fed to do for the rest of it had year . Yeah, for sure. I think definitely theres been a shift in the flow of data, which i think definitely brings back the idea of rate increases this year. Thats not really been taken on board yet by the u. S. Rates market. I would expect that to change over the coming weeks. For next week or for the next fomc on the 16th of march, i think theyre going to have two, at least three dots still there for rate hikes. Fed president williams yesterday said there would be a slight change in the profile. That points to perhaps three rate increases still being expected by the fed. When you look at the data, that is understandable. In particular, the inflation figures we had recently. I think very, very clearly points to domestically generated inflation building in the u. S. That is of crucial importance to the fed. Perhaps they need to see a little more evidence of it. Before the fed comes the ecb next week. The euro has made a sharp move lower. European stocks have rebounded. Great expectations from mario draghi. Will he deliver . I think he will. I think one change from december when the markets were disappointed that he didnt deliver more is i think a shift in thinking in regard to the bundes bank. They cited increased concerns in regard to Energy Prices staying lower for longer, shaping wage settlements and pushing Inflation Expectations further lower. So i think their level of concern is definitely higher today than it was in december. So that element of resistance, i think, is probably gone. And that makes for a much better chance that we do get a more impressive package of measures from the ecb next week. Derek, for that package to be more impressive, dont we have to see a much bigger monthly size of bond purchases as opposed to more negative rates or lengthening the time frame of those purchases . Because as weve seen in the past within europe and also very much recently with japan with negative rates, their Financial Systems dont really respond that much to the just simple negative rate move. Yeah, i agree. I think the ecb is studying very closely how best to do that. The obvious conclusion is theyre going to replicate in some way what the boj did and tier the impact of negative rates to try and protect the banks to some degree. That looks like something that could be. But yes, theyll have to increase the pace of asset purchases as well. Were expecting a 10 billion per month increase and a sixmonth extension in timeline. That would make a qe program of 1. 5 trillion become something a little bit just over 2 trillion. That coupled wit