Im glad you found a little smile because its International Happiness day. Happy friday. A little friction in the first ten minutes. We had a fight over the twitter question, which is still to come. But you must get involved. A loving fight. We havent worked out what the twitter question is yet. Anyway, back in the black. The dow positive on the year. Extraordinary turnaround when you think about where we were a couple weeks ago. Blue chip index on track for its best quarterly comeback since the end of the great depression. A weaker dollar and stronger oil helping to propel stocks this week. U. S. Ek wiquity futures right n lets take a look. They were broadly flat earlier. The s p and nasdaq called open by a small amount. The dow similarly called open but only by 25 points into positive territory. A big reason for the stunning turnaround in stocks, the correlations with other assets. Lets show you the price of oil right now. Wti topping 40 a barrel for the First Time Since december 7th, heading for its fifth week of gains. Lets show you whats happening this morning, giving a bit back. Wti back below that 40 level but just barely. Brent still above 41. Off by a little less than 1 . Nat gas backing off as well. So where does the oil price go from here . We got a prediction from barclays on fast money last night. Have a listen. I do think that 50 is a possibility. We actually have a call for 60 wti. When . In 2017. Okay. So thats the issue right now, that we see 2016 as an adjustment year in order to kind of see production continue to decline, but we think the balance tips very much to the opposite direction for 2017. And thats going to be the key question. When it comes to commodities, which has also been helped by the weaker dollar, the dollar is at the weakest level since back in october, have we seen the worst . Is this sort of upswing for real . Does it mark the end of the major commodities rout . Caterpillar yesterday lowering its guidance for the First Quarter, much lower than analysts expected. But then kept its fullyear earnings forecast on track, signaling maybe we will see a rebound or maybe caterpillar sees a rebound in prices. Of iron ore or the Mining Industry and the mining business. Caterpillar went up on the day, even though that First Quarter forecast was so disappointing on this idea that maybe they see it coming back. Well see if it happens. That could be the key for stocks. Weve seen a really Strong Performance in a lot of the mining stocks this week. Of course, theyre so heavily leveraged. A lot of them. So when we see a reaction in commodities across the board, really, including gold, but oil in particular, thats helping those sectors. Absolutely right to mention the dollar on this. I think the first few weeks of the rebound in the oil price sort of five weeks ago was more on demand and supply. We had a few noises coming out of opec and russia and the like. This week, very much focused on the dollar move and how thats helped commodities more broadly. The green back falling to its lowest level since october today. That continues that u. S. Dollar weakness. If we look at that right now, the euro versus the u. S. Dollar, albeit the euro is giving up some ground today. Were very close to 1. 13 overnight. Its fascinating to me to see how that pairing is a great indicator of the Broader Market at the moment. That pairing has reacted to so much more strongly to no action from the fed to a lot of action from the ecb. We were at 1. 08 last week. Thats almost unfathomable when you consider the bazooka mario draghi shot off. Its true. If you go through some of the boxes of what was ailing this market in january, worst start to a year ever, you had the strong dollar at the top of the list. Well, thats reversed. You had the price of oil plunging. Thats reversed along with other commodities as well. Chinas currency plunging as well. Or at least weakening. People were spooked by what that meant. Thats reversed. Overnight in asia, the chinese yuan hit its strongest level of the year against the u. S. Dollar thanks to that falling dollar. Concerns about the Global Economy and u. S. Recession, thats kind of also gone to the back burner. Well see if we can keep checking these boxes as we look at the stock market. Theres the chinese currency. High point of 2016. That helped asian markets overnight, except for that japanese yen starting to strengthen. Really took its toll on japanese exporters with the nikkei falling overnight. Japanese government bonds, a story in themselves. Rallying with the tenyear and 20year yields hitting record lows. Today mark theed the First Time Since 1980 that the tenyear fell below the bank of japan policy rate. Fascinating if we look at the rest of asia as well. Chinas home prices rose at the fastest pace in two years. Thats also fueling bubble concerns. The yuan firming against the dollar, as weve already said, hitting a 2016 high. Lets also have a look at the Broader Market performance. The nikkei the exception. Thats because of the yen, of course, whereas the weaker dollar has helped the rest of the markets around the world. I do think if we sit and pause, weve seen a few weeks ago we were very critical of what the g20 finance ministers could achieve. There was talk of collective action. Everything you would have hoped to have seen since has happened. Weve seen the chinese come out and be clear on their currency and it strengthened. Weve seen a lot of easing from the ecb. We havent seen tightening from janet yellen. It does seem slightly coordinated. We need to keep this bubble we need to keep things going. We cant quite stomach a big downturn at the moment. I think people understand that long term, these types of actions have to be removed. I wonder if, to your point, theyve declared somewhat of a truce on the currency war. You mentioned the ecb bazooka. Maybe it was aimed at helping the banks and it was a targeted policy aimed at getting them to lend to each other and to the real economy again. Thats not a currency mechanism like flatout qe that we saw postfinancial crisis. Anyway, a lot of central bank stories that are sort of moving right now. And the common theme is theyre all still in easing mode and the fed this week took a big step back to move in sync with its peers. Lets have a look at european trading. The banks are weighing on the broader index at the moment, whereas the commodity names are not. We were in negative territory half an hour ago. Weve found a little im me us it impetus, but nothing to write home about. Check out gold prices. Heres what jpmorgan had to say about the precious metal on fast money. I would stay with the sort value asset, and gold is one of them. These assets will benefit from the fed marginally underdelivering. That should put pressure on the dollar. Were also watching copper prices. Were showing you all markets this morning. Overnight, the metal hitting its highest level since back in november. Another positive sign for sentiment for the Global Economy and particularly for china. You love to talk about it almost as much as the yen. No telltale sign right now. Id say its your favorite in march. It really has made a move back been Global Equities have followed. Always brings it back. I absolutely agree. Lets get to the u. S. Bond market. This is an interesting one to note. Yes, weve seen yields tick down in line with the fact that we dont expect the fed to hike rates so quickly, but when you look at the fact that weve seen equity buying this week alongside bond buying, which is why that yield has compressed, it is an indicator of a rally based not on fundamentals but Central Bank Action or inaction. Thats usually a slightly more bearish reaction. And we wrap up the trading week with data on the consumer in the u. S. Today. The first read on march Consumer Sentiment out at 10 00 a. M. Eastern time. Expected to tick up slightly from february. And a trio of fed officials are speaking today after the fed announcement. New york fed president bill dudley, boston fed president rosengren and bullard. Sales are expected to be hit by the strong dollar for tiffany. Tourists spend less at the Flagship Store in new york city. So well be watching those tiffany earnings before the bell. Indeed we will. Its been a big week for Central Banks around the world. Headlined by the u. S. Fed decision. Today well hear from russia. The central bank there expected to remain cautious, keeping rates at 11 . A policy decision due at 6 30 eastern time this morning. Some deal news to report. Trans canada buying Columbia Pipeline Group for 10. 2 billion. Trans canada best known as the Company Behind the Keystone Xl Oil pipeline. This deal would create one of north americas largest regulated natural gas transmissions. The stock reacting favorably. More stocks to watch. Jpmorgan is raising its Stock Buyback Program to 1. 88 billion. Johnson johnson have been ordered by a federal jury in texas to pay 500 million to five plaintiffs who say they were injured by a metal hip implant. The jury found the implants were defectively designed. J j says it plans to appeal the verdict. Adobe systems First Quarter profit nearly tripled on strong continued Digital Media revenue. Adobe is also raising its fullyear earnings outlook. Stocks up nice. Look at that chart. Thats a pretty chart. Some other stocks for you to watch. Shutterfly has named amazons u. K. Head Christopher North as its new ceo. North has been with amazon since back in 2006. Hell take over the digital Photo Company at the end of may. Whole foods is moving towards slower growing chickens. The Supermarket Chain will replace the Industry Standard chicken bred to rapidly pack on pounds with slower growing varieties. The Company Believes those birds will enjoy better lives and actually yield better tasting meat. The move should be complete by 2024. Viacom says it has received offers for Minority Stake in Paramount Pictures from three dozen companies. The ceo telling the wall street journal the company is looking for Strategic Partner to help its international and Digital Business as opposed to purely Financial Partners such as private equity firms. To be continued on that one. Still to come here on Worldwide Exchange, Hedge Fund Liquidations reach the highest level since the financial crisis. The new numbers and what they tell us coming up here on cnbc. Good morning to you. Happy friday and warm welcome to Worldwide Exchange if youre just waking up. Lets get you up to speed on the market action. First up, oil prices. 4 gains for wti yesterday, taking it above 40 for the First Time Since december. Were a little off that level today, but clearly oil prices have had a fantastic rally since their lows in february. Almost above 40. Someone, buy some. Get it above 40 this morning. Great rally there. If you thought that was a big rally, lets look at what equities have done. U. S. Futures right now, the dow is in positive territory for the year as a whole. Who would have thought that a few weeks ago . Were called to open by 44 points higher today as well. European trading, it was mixed to down earlier. We found some impetus in the last half an hour. Commodity stocks doing well. Banks doing badly this morning. Sara . Speaking of europe, moodys is warning europes stable ratings face rising risks. The firm saying the ratings remaining steady this year and next, but it is cautious that fading fiscal consolidation, limited progress on structural reforms, and rising political risks limit the upside potential and create longer term issues in europe. Were going to stay on the global theme right now and head to singapore now, where akiko fujita joins us with a look at the overnight action in asia. Good morning to you, sara. Were seeing markets here in asia pretty much end the week on a high note for the most part. Green pretty much across the board here as Risk Appetite increases on expectations of fewer rate hikes out of the fed. Looking to the Chinese Markets here, the shanghai composite ending the day in positive territory, helped by new data out that showed home prices rose at the fastest rate in nearly two years, helped by big demand in these big cities. The nikkei over in japan continuing to be the lone player in the red here. It was below the 17,000 mark, closing down about 211 points. The strong yen continuing to weigh on investors there. The currency has moved about 7 on the year. It held above that key 110 mark today. It moved about 111 against the dollar. With exporters continuing to get hit hard by the strong currency, there are increasing questions about how much longer the bank of japan can continue to stay on the sidelines. As weve seen unease in the markets, weve certainly seen a rush to safe havens. Yields on tenyear japanese government bonds, jgbs hit a new record low today. Thats the First Time Since 1980 that the tenyear yield has fallen below the Central Banks policy rate. Wilfred . Akiko, thank you very much for that. New Fund Flow Data out this morning. Investors pulled 2. 1 billion from u. S. Based stock funds in the latest week. Money market funds posted 36 billion in outflows, marking the groups largest exit of money in more than two years. New Research Today finds more hedge funds shut down last year than at any time since the financial crisis. Hedge Fund Research reporting 979 funds liquidated in 2015 as turbulent markets hurt performance. The top 20 of funds by assets received about 80 of new money that came in during the year. 2016 doesnt look any better for the hedge fund industry. Hedge funds only received 3 million in new money in february. That compares with 18. 6 billion during the same month last year. We talk a lot about bill ackmans problems at Pershing Square with the valeant trade and a lot of the other hedge funds on that bandwagon, but this is widespread pain for the industry. And the theme of the last couple years, which has been really focused on in the first few months this year, is active management worth the fees they charge . Big headline stories like that dont help. We always ask it, and they have been consistently underperforming for the past few years. Yet money continues to flow in, which is why were watching these numbers. Right. Still to come here on Worldwide Exchange, decision 2016. Donald trump emerging as the big fish in a tiny pool of gop president ial candidates. And thats spurring a scramble by political power brokers to try to shut him down. The latest from the campaign trail coming up. But first, heres todays National Forecast from the weather channels reynolds wolf. Hi, wilfred and sara. Lets look at your forecast across the nation. Good people, let me tell you, we could have some bad storms today, especially across parts of central and south texas, the gulf coast. For those of you who have spring fever and youre hoping for warmer times, spring isnt there yet in places like bismarck or denver. Cool temperatures back in upstate new york, vermont, parts of new hampshire, even maine. Sunny for you in new york. Enjoy it while you can because we have cooler times and a chance of snowfall coming into the weekend. Lets see what today brings first. Not a bad way to end your week in los angeles with 72 degrees. 60 in seattle. 71 in dallas. 71 in atlanta. 85 in miami. New york, again, i got to tell you, enjoy the warm times. Cooler times and a chance of snow moves in for the weekend. More coming up here on cnbc. We can help guide your investments through good times and bad. For over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions. You can feel confident. In our experience. Call a t. Rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor. To see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and new infrastructure for a new generation attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in rochester, with worldclass botox. And in buffalo, where medicine meets the future. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. The dump Trump Movement may be gaining steam this morning. Nbcs tracie potts is live in washington with more on a private meeting held there to find someone else to represent the Republican Party this fall. Tracie . Reporter hi there, wilfred. Good morning, everyone. These people, conservatives, republicans, who do not want to see donald trump as the nominee are getting together, trying to figure out how to stop him or how to slow him down. A couple options theyre looking at right now to stop him before the nomination, before the convention this summer, or to give him some competition in the fall. This closeddoor meeting organized by conservative republicans looking for a strategy to beat donald trump. The best way to do it is to get a unity ticket. Reporter its