Im sara eisen. Im wilfred frost. Yesterday was thanksgiving, today means its time for holiday tunes. Is this your first black friday in the states . It is, indeed. My first thanksgiving. Are you going shopping . I am. Im buying a new laptop. There you go. Stock Trading Volume typically on this day half the level from standard trading sessions. Heres what time the markets close. The New York Stock Exchange and nasdaq will close at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. The bond market closes at 2 00 p. M. Eastern. Commodity and currency markets observing the holiday and have a shortened session. Heres where futures are trading. Closed on wednesday at another record high. It looks like the gains are continuing. Earlier this morning the futures perking up. Dow futures up 60 points. Higher yields as well. We reached 242 i believe it was earlier in the week. That was the highest level in years. The dollar particularly strong on wednesday. We just pulled back a bit over the last couple sessions for the dollar. The u. S. Equity market, a record close for the dow. Intraday, we didnt hit a day, the nasdaq pulled back a fraction. European trade today is a bit soft. Well, basically flat now. Germany, france, italy eking out gains. Ftse 100 and spain just behind. Asian trade was decent. We had some data out of japan showing improvement in cpi, despite the fact it was still a deflation headline print. The nikkei is, in fact, off the highs today. Just showing hong kong and shanghai up. Some yen strength has meant it pulled off the highs of the day. Oil prices this morning, lets look ahead of the key event risk next week. On wednesday is that opec meeting. Wti down to 47. 63. Its off by 0. 7 . Brent 48. 58. Gasoline under pressure as well. The dollar has been the story. Running up yesterday in european trade to a 14year high. The euro is firmly below 106. 105. 95. Its getting stronger, so that Dollar Strength is taking a pause this morning. But that is certainly the theme as the fed hike in december is a near certainty. Economic data looks solid and you have this enthusiasm about the domestic economy under president elect trump. Dollar yen still above 1. 13. The pound strengthens starts 1. 25. Gold should be getting a bit of relief after the Dollar Strength hurt gold. So dollar, bond yields taking a pause from the recent run up. And equities are strong this morning. Just one piece of economic data, the advanced report on the october trade deficit out at 8 30 a. M. Its one of the most important weekends of the year for retailers. According to a survey by deloitte more than three quarters of American Consumers plan to do some sort of shopping between thanksgiving and cybermonday. Courtney reagan is live from the mall at Fairfield Commons in dayton, ohio, taking the pulse of shoppers out in the midwest. What are you seeing . Thats true, its very convenient. I did get to be home with my family in ohio, i also went to a target, walmart and best buy store last night, the crowds were decent and the carts were full. The target ceo says he is pleased with response in stores, calling it overall positive. He said target shoppers in store and online did come in for hot items, Something Like a hover board which sold out quickly, but also added other items to carts. Apple products, games systems, toys, and the dyson hoover vacuums were some of the top products. The 10 bear sold out quickly. I did see a lot of leftover fitbits and jbl speakers. This may be a record day for sales. Traffic and sales were up double digits. Thanksgiving day is also one of walmarts top selling days for the year. Walmarts top sellers included tvs, video games, drones, toys, pajamas. The Walmart Store i visited had about 200 people in line and checkout took about 15 minutes. Most of the carts were full with a lot of variety. Here at the mall, it has been open all night. The shoppers were seeing here are a lot of the millennium shoppers, there are some families coming through. I expect to see the traffic begin to pick up around 9 00, 10 00. Now that we have the stores open on thanksgiving, you see the first wave then, folks go home, rest, and then come out and hit the mall Stores Friday morning into midday. So theres this enthusiasm, i hear it from you and some of the anecdotal evidence about the consumer going into the Holiday Season. Who do you think is best positioned or needs it most . I know you cover all the Department Stores, the big box stores, the dollar stores, who do you really think is the key to watch this Holiday Season . I think the Department Stores need to see a good season. So that includes macys, nordstroms, jcpenney. Jcpenney did open doors at 3 00 again this year. Its possible they took shom share. Jcpenney also has appliances now, and Marvin Ellison says those are big purchases made on a big friday because of the deals and people wanting to have their kitchens and washing machine rooms up and running for the Holiday Season. So jcpenney could use a good holiday, macys, too. Last quarter the quarter for target was bumpy. So a good Holiday Season will set them up well. Courtney, thank you very much for that. Thank you. Well december discuss retail more broadly. We are joined by Stacy Widlitz what are the initial takeaways from the first couple days of trade, online versus bricks and mortar . I think the main takeaways here are that its all about online. Thats where the growth is. So far it looks like double digit growth online. And im expecting traffic in stores this year again to be down mid Single Digits. I think the winners here are the ones saying to the consumer we will not discriminate between deals online and in store, well give you both. That includes target, kohls, walmart. So the ones making that happen for the customer will be the winners. Is there a price war going on as all the box stores try to attract Online Shoppers and compete with amazon . Absolutely. Every year theres a price war here. Particularly for target. They offered just 15 off on this coming sunday and monday. Thats a great sign. Everybody is offering free shipping. This year, when you just thought we hit peak black friday, we havent. Walmart and target average prices are down mid Single Digits today. So i think were there, and we just havent hit it yet. Is this an easier period for the online retailers to deal with in terms of extra staffing, dealing with the volume in is it just as trekicky to take care o online traffic trends . Everyones challenge is trying to figure out how to staff up and what kind of logistic infrastructure you need. For the brickandmortar guys, i think the challenges are how do they use their stores as distribution and how do they use sales people when theyre idle to pack boxes and ship things from the stores. It is a challenge because you dont know what the mix of penetration will be for the brickandmortar guys, and its a lower gross margin for them it hurts profitability. I think before the election we were talking about the retail doom and gloom, apparel spending has been soft all year. Department stores, specialty retailers, we got a glimpse of it in the urban results last week, which i know you and i were talking about. There has been a run up lately in retail stocks. Is it justified . Has the tide turned . Would you be a seller . Heres the deal, the rlx is up 8 since the election. Some of these stocks are up 20 . Why are they up this much . Inventories are in line. Thats great. Thats helping gross margins. Its much better than it has been over the past several years, now we need to see that top lineuations where they are now. I would be cautious. As that mix to online continues, they will grow profit. Great stuff. Thank you very much for joining us. Good to see you. Coming up, a deeper dive into this weeks surge in the u. S. Dollar. Its been the story of the week in the markets. Will it be the force that could stop the markets rally . First as we head to break, heres what it looks like at the mall at fairfield in ohio, bck friday. Were back in a couple minutes. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Lets show you what futures are doing. Theyre strong this morning in terms of u. S. Stocks. Dow futures up 58 points, s p up 2 1 2. Nasdaq up 4. This comes after another record close for the dow. Its been a string of records for all three major averages over the past few sessions. And the small caps joining in on the rally. We have oil prices, that has been a big theme as well. Strength in oil helped support this rally lately. Backing off a bit this morning. Something to watch into the u. S. Trading session still up 4 for the week. Off now about three quarters of a percent. Wpi, 47. 60. The stock market closes today at 1 00 p. M. Its a holidayshortened trading day. The u. S. Dollar is backing off but still trading near a 14year high. Theres the euro, a bit stronger this morning at 1. 0594. Thats been the center of the action. Joining us is kit jukes. Thanks for joining us. Good morning. Does this dollar rally have more room to run . I think so. You know, i would be its going faster than you might have expected. Days like today, a quiet day when people are apparently seeking out black friday bargains we may have to pause for 24 hours. We made another high for this move in real yields on inflation protected securities overnight. We reached the same level at dollar yen back in march. As yields go higher, we take the dollar up. Were regular readers of your morning note. We get the sense from that that you actually think the euro is due quite a significant rally, but various political factors stop that from happening. Is that a fair summation . I thought it would you know, i was surprised by the extent of political contagion and concern about the european and political outlook after the u. S. President ial election. Maybe i shouldnt have been surprised. Im now left in position where i cant see who will buy the euro this side of certainly not next weekends italian referendum but probably until the French Election next may, i think we can see down side. In valuation terms, were pretty much done. Thats all political overshoot unless we get one of those populous surprises in europe. Then the danger is to the upside in euro. All of that euro strength has been postponed by politics, which is now more important than economics. I wonder if the pace of this dollar rally, which is going to start to get painful for corporations again. Weve seen how much that strong dollar can hurt u. S. Multinational earnings. I wonder if that will cause the fed to have a more dovish tone if they raise Interest Rates in december and slow the pace and the forecast for tightening next year, and that could stop the dollar run. Is that what you expect . Yeah, im not sure if it happens that fast in terms of that, but there is a point. No one is talking about financial conditions indices or whats the overall state of it much everyone is talking about higher inflation, and if the dollar goes on fast enough theyll have to soften some of that talk. If this goes fast enough, i dont know that december changes much. December will get a similar run to last year, rate hike with the fed not giving the impression theyre finished but still well see where markets go. The danger is we may get the peak in dollar way earlier than we thought. Not necessarily at different levels. I thought dollar yen would reach 1. 20 by the end of the year. We could be there by christmas. Maybe we should go to tokyo instead of italy for shopping. Kit juckes, thank you. Coming up, how donald trump spent his thanksgiving. Before the break, heres todays National Forecast on one of the busiest shopping days of the year from the weather channels kelly cass. Its black friday, a lot of folks hitting the balls, the shopping centers. Theyll be doing that with the umbrellas in some parts of the neefrt. Still some rain drops in new york city, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s. In click go, cloudy skies, 43. For the mall of georgia. A few showers south of dallas. A few showers possible down towards miami, high of 80 degrees. Another storm system, the latest one in a parade of storms hitting the pacific northwest, keeping your temperature down to 50 degrees in seattle a good looking day in l. A. , 76. Mild temperatures throughout the south, 60s to low 70s in atlanta. Thats a look at your National Forecast. Welcome back. Donald trump says he was working hard on thanksgiving day to keep another u. S. Manufacturer from moving production to mexico. Trump tweeting hes trying to get Carrier Air Conditioning Company to stay in indiana says he is making progress. Will know soon. Earlier this year carrier announced they were moving their furnace plants from indianapolis to mexico taking 1400 jobs. Trump made several references to carrier during the campaign. Saying if it moved to mexico the company would be paying a hefty tax on imports to the u. S. Carrier confirmed they had talks with the administration but nothing to announce at this time. Also trump reports that he did talk with apples tim cook who trump went after a lot on the campaign about moving manufacturing to the u. S. Not for tapping him up for certain jobs. No. House democrats are warning federal investigators that president elect trump might give Deutsche Bank special treatment. Specifically they are voicing concerns that he might insert himself in talks about t efrn we tried to ask for information says that is confidential. It is thought Deutsche Bank is a big lender. Interesting that certain democratic lawmakers are making sure this is an issue so he doesnt get involved in the doj settlement. Back to the markets. On the question of the banks, they have really lit up since the election, been the brightest sector. Does that bank rally continue on this idea that maybe regulation will roll back, the yield curve is steepening, the fed will raise rates and the economy will pick up. I think previously the Financial Services stocks across the world were troubled by low and flat yield curve, by overregulation, skepticism by investors. Now a lot of those head winds are starting to fade. Most houses, ourselves including, we believe we will have a december rate hike. We have a steeper Treasury Curve and more importantly and policywise with Donald Trumps potential reduction of doddfrank or dismantling of it, as has been quoted, of course you have increased profitable questions for u. S. Financials, perhaps some of that is bleeding into the european financials who may have crossborder benefits of that dismantling of doddfrank. Weve been focused on the fact that the overall market hit record highs. Are we missing the point that it is factors like the financials which are propping up the market as a whole . If you dive into it, is this rally a little less broad than perhaps the headline grabbing record closes might suggest . Certainly. If you look at the breakout of the preelection to postelection few weeks, its just three sectors that are driving the index higher, financials, industrials, based on the boom that trump is putting on the table, and healthcare. Those three sectors have been the primary drivers of the s p 500. The others are just kind of bobbing along. Is there any other market in the world to buy other than the u. S. After the trump win . Europe has not participate in the rally. Anywhere else to go . I think the japanese equity market can benefit from a weaker yen to the dollar you know the correlation between the nikkei and topix versus the yen rate versus the dollar. I think in general for longer term investors as we speak to quite often, any dip or selloff in emerging Market Equities is the time to pick a few if you have the medium to longterm horizon. Thank you very much for joining its. Great to have you with us. Moving on to sports, football fans were treated to three courses of nfl games on thanksgiving. The Detroit Lions hosted the minnesota vikings. The score was tied, with less than 40 seconds left when Sam Bradfords pass was intercepted. The lions beat minnesota, 1613. The Late Afternoon game featured washington traveling to dallas to take on the cowboys. Check out this catch by terence williams. Sara enjoyed that one a lot. I can tell. My newest thanksgiving tra dig, watching football. Did you watch football a bit . Frnlg a little. In the night cap, the steelers were in indianapolis to take on the colts. It was all pittsburgh with Antonio Brown leading the way with three touchdown receptions. The steelers beat the colts, 287. Eyes blindfolded, you could have summarized it. You did a pretty good job. Shoppers around the country are lining up to catch the door buster deals. More on the madness and how good those bargains are straight ahead. Not quite lighting up judging by this. Good morning. Black friday mania what some of the iconic retailers are doing to get customers in their stores on this allimportant shopping holiday. After blasting through 19,000, the wall street setup shows another record setting day could be on tap. Its friday november 25, black friday, and youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Good morning. We should do a cover of this song. No thank you. Im sara eisen. We can lipsync it. Thats what i mean. It will be nice, when the snow starts falling by the stock exchange. Get used to the holiday music. I like it. Im a big fan of it. Do they have black friday in the uk now . We do now. We brought it in recently to copy. But it gets disdain from shoppers. People are like