Hello, everyone, im kate bolduan. Im john berman. So did isis shoot that Russian Airliner from the sky . Moments ago the head of u. S. Intelligence said it was at least a possibility. Does isis have the ability to shoot down an airliner . Its unlikely, but i wouldnt rule it out. I wouldnt rule it out. The russian passenger jet broke apart over the sinia peninsula saturday killing all 224 people on board. The russian government are dismissing claims of responsibility but the company that flies the plane, metrojet, says the only reasonable explanation is, quote, an external influence. But the airline also says its too early to draw any conclusions about this being linked to terrorism. Joining us now from cairo is Senior International correspondent arwa damon, whos been watching this all very closely. Arwa, they recovered the flight data recorders. Whats happening now . Reporter they have, but we dont know when theyre going to be able to extract the information from them. You were speaking there about the possibility as to whether or not isis could have shot down this plane. Well, one of the isis affiliates, Islamic Militant group that pledged allegiance to them, did come out and claim responsibility for shooting down the aircraft, but that was very, very quickly dismissed by both russian and egyptian authorities for the mere simple fact that according to an Egyptian Military source we spoke to, the Islamic Militants that operate in the sinai only have the capability, they only have shoulderfired surfacetoair missiles in that area that could go up to 15,000, 16,000 feet. Not the 31,000 feet cruising altitude that this aircraft was at when it all of a sudden disappeared from the radar. Both russian and egyptian Investigative Teams have been on the ground. According to russian stateowned news agency, they were quoting a source of theirs, a russian source, who is part of the Investigative Team that said of the parts they have tested so far, none of them have tested positive for explosives. Theres still a lot of questions, a lot of conflicting information coming out. Of course, all of this very difficult for the families who are not only having to say goodbye to their loved ones, but are still waiting for a reason as to why this even happened. Our hearts go out to those families. Arwa damon, thank you so much. Joining us for a closer look, senior military analyst mark hertling, and former pilot and aviation attorney justin green. General, let me start with you. You heard arwa address it there. Just remind us, what would it take, what does it take to shoot down a passenger jet at 30,000 feet . Well, it takes a pretty good system, john. Not anything thats been reported by the insurgents, the terrorists in this particular area. But i would state, there has been an increasingly violent pronation in this area, in the sinai. This is an area where we have had forces, u. S. Forces, Many Americans dont know that, as part of the Multinational Force of observers along with fiji and colu colombia and many other countries. One of their base camps is close to where the wreckage is. They have reported over the last years, groups have pledged their allegiance to isis, has increasingly used various types of missiles on the ground. Whether or not they have the capability to shoot an airplane out of the sky at greater than 25,000 feet is unknown. But there has been open source reporting that they do have sa18 missiles, as arwa reported, can shoot up to about 16,000, 17,000 feet. So what do you think of this claim of responsibility so far that russians were downplaying and now clearly it seems to be out there as a possibility, even though no one is ready to draw a conclusion, for good reason . I dont think you have to look at the investigation. It could be one of several things. Im certainly not going to suggest it was terrorism, but you cant rule that out. The same thing i wouldnt rule out pilot error or any kind of mechanical malfunction until you get the results of an investigation. The aviation experts would know more about that. But with what mr. Clapper said, i would agree, you cant rule out terrorism in this part of the world. Les, lets bring you in. You fly big jet liners right now. This thing broke apart, apparently, in midair. What are the range of things that can cause a plane and, you know, an airbus to break apart . We dont know how and when it broke apart, thats the whole thing, john. I looked at the flight radar data, not that im hanging my hat on that information because we dont know how accurate it is, but that airplane attained an altitude of 33,500 feet. The last data i saw was at 28,000. So something was happening to that airplane with reference to speeds. It went from 400 knots down to 62 knots in a fairly short period of time. But one of the interesting things was, it went to a vertical speed of, say, 7,000 feet a minute down and then it then it showed a vertical speed of 8,000 up. So, did something internal external happen . Its hard to say, as general hertling said. Lets wait for the investigation to progress, but im seeing an aerodynamic stall possibly. Whether that was caused by some other force, its hard to say at this point in time. But an aerodynamic stall will definitely put the airplane out of control. Now, it is capable or pilots are capable of recovering recovering from that stall. To me, if that airplane was coming down at such a force, it will break apart. Whether its, you know, an explosion or not. When you look at the range of possibility, the flight data recorders, they have them recovered, thats one of the keys to figuring out exactly what happened. Theres an investigation into what the parts look like. Theyre already being tested. But the fact this airline has come out already saying that theyre saying that theyre excluding technical problems. They reject human error. They now say it is an external influence that created this. What do you think simply of how the airline what the airline is already saying on this . Thats a little bit of a softball because under the international law, the egyptians are in charge of the investigation. And i think its appropriate if the Airline Comes forward with can release information about the pilots training, the pilots background or the airplanes maintenance history, but what the airline shouldnt be doing and what necessity have done is starting to exclude factors. Theres more of a pr campaign than a legitimate response to an accident. Its a russian plane in egyptian air space or crashed in egyptian territory. You say its the egyptians handling the investigation. What you have, though, is you have countries with vested interest and a certain bit of public relations. Egypt doesnt to want say we have isis militants shooting down airlines right now. You remember egypt air 990, the copilot took that plane down. Egypt never accepted that happened. Egypt has kind of a history of playing fast and loose with the facts and the conclusions of investigations, so you have the airline not wanting to say its the pilot or maintenance history. You have egypt wanting to downplay the idea that someone could shoot down the airplane, so you really have to listen to whats being said with kind of a you know, a little bit of a pessimistic ear. A lot more to learn in just the coming days. Justin, les, general, thank you so much for your time. We appreciate it. Coming up for us, jeb bush can fix it, he swears. The republican relaunching his campaign right now. And warning america in this relaunch, dont roll the dice on, quote, personality. Hear what his message is now. Plus, some of the republican president ial candidates apparently want to be Television Producers now. They hold a secret meeting to plan future debates. What do they really want here . They want to be writing the questions . And president obama defends his decision to release 6,000 inmates but the head of the nypd says, watch out, we dont really know who might be walking free today. Inthe midsize van, from mercedesbenz. Its got smallability and bigability. Towingability and stowingability. Rackability and hvacability. Its fully customizable and sized just right to give you cupcakeability, entourageability. Garageability and even affordability. Starting at 28,950. Available in cargo or passenger. From mercedesbenz. Theand to help you accelerate,. Weve created a new company. One totally focused on whats next for your business. The True Partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. Accelerating innovation. Accelerating transformation. Accelerating next. Hewlett packard enterprise. I was out for a bike ride. I didnt think id have a heart attack. But i did. Im mike, and im very much alive. Now my doctor recommends a bayer aspirin regimen to help prevent another heart attack. Be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. Building aircraft, the likes of which the world has never seen. This is what we do. Thats the value of performance. Northrop grumman. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like playing the boss equals the boss wins. Wow happening now, campaign reset. Republican president ial candidate jeb bush just kicked off his jeb can fix it tour. Of course, that might depend on what the definition of quit i the country or the campaign. Is this jeb 3. 0, 4. 0 maybe . He just wrapped up a speech at a rally in tampa. Heres a bit of it. It lincoln were alive today, imagine the foolishness he would have to suffer. Think about it. Advisers telling him to shave his beard. Cable pundits telling him to lose the top hat. Opposition researchers calling him a fivetime loser before he was 50. Ive gotten a lot of advice lately myself. More than enough, thank you. More than enough, thank you very much. Lets bring in cnns chief Political Correspondent dana bash for more on this. So, whats the message here . Im like lincoln . Reporter i think its kind of like a popeye speech, i am what i am. Thats seems to be the tone throughout. Certainly he takes some partisan shots at the president and tries to frame what hes been talking about since he launched his campaign back in june, which is he has leadership skills, he did a lot in florida that could be translated to washington. But at the end of the day this is trying to push back against critics about his debate performance last week and more importantly, against his supporters who say, oh, my gosh, weve got to get this right and change course a little bit. Listen to what he said on that note. If you watched the debate, you probably came away thinking the election is about sound bites or fantasy football or which candidate can interrupt the loudest. Im here to tell you it is not. This election is not about a set of personalities. Its about a set of principles. Reporter so if youre looking for something new in this speech, i dont think youre going to find it in any specific line or policy proposal. It is, i think, just if you weave through the entire thing, its the overall tone of this. The more i think about this and read the lines where, for example, kate and john he talks about all the things that he is and all the things he is not, he says hes not going to compromise his his principles. He wont trade an optimistic outlook and put on the cloak of an angry agitator. Doesnt want to make people feel small so he can feel big. In a way hes trying to kind of turn what has been a negative for him into a positive although a time when everyone is looking for that authentic candidate. Thats who he says he is. He says hes not going to change his personality to kind of fit in the world of todays media or in the world of some of his competitors. So, well see if this works for him. Hes tried this kind of thing a couple of times. But the fact theyre telegraphing this like this might be more effective. A pivot to authenticity. Theres some irony in and of itself right there. Dana bash, thank you so much. Appreciate you being with us. Joining us to talk about this cnn political commentator hilary rosen, chrissal is a republican insider and author of the new book the selfie vote where millenials are leading america and how republicans can keep up. Kristin, youre the republican in this discussion right now. Lets go to you first. What is jeb saying here . Is it fair when you listen to him talk, it essentially sounds like if you only saw me for how i see myself. If you only understood how great i was as governor, i might be winning now, but somethings getting in the way. Its clear this has not turned out to be the election jeb bush or many republicans thought it would be, with donald trump and ben carson top the polls, this is a very different october november now than i think a lot of can days thought it would be. Jeb bushs strength was his record as governor of florida was very strong. He was excited to run on that and demonstrate, pushing back against the narrative he was moderate, not in step with the party base is. His challenge is his record as governor is only the first step. Voters are hungry, what are you going to do, not ten years ago, but ten years from now . Where will america be after a decade of your leadership . Thats the pivot hes trying to make to catch up with those like marco rubio whos been focused on that theme all along. Then you have things like the comparisons he makes to lincoln. If lincoln were alive today, imagine the foolishness he would have to suffer. The i am what i am message the dignities of being a president ial candidate. Exactly. Im suffering and i want you to feel sorry for me because im jeb bush. Yes, you are a resident democrat right now, but is this going to work with Republican Voters . You know, heres the problem, i think, with jeb bush is he is so stuck and mired in the process of running for president that hes not really telling anybody what hes for or what had they would be getting if he were president. You know, this just look at his week coming up. Today its jeb can fix it. Well, everybodys looking at that slogan and think hes talking about his own campaign. What can he fix . Whats he fixing . The second piece is hes releasing an ebook this week about all of his emails from when he was governor of florida, process, process, process. People are not interested in this. They dont want to hear his problems, that he has other, cooler things he could do. They want to know what the hell he would do as president. And hes stuck. He cant seem to pivot away from thinking about his own travails. And really, when youre running for president , its not really about you. Its supposed to be about the american people. My view is kind of the very thing he criticized donald trump for the most, which is his narcissism, hes exhibiting only in kind of a you know, a softer, more, you know, gentile way but no less narcissistic. Other candidates are using some of the things jeb bush is saying right now and taking advantage of them. Jeb bush is saying, i have the experience to fix things. You know, you want someone whos been here before. Well, listen to how marco rubio addressed this over the weekend. I know there are people running that have more experience than i do on the issues we faced 17 years ago, but on the issues before america today, thats what we should be debating. So, is senator rubio sort of outflanking jeb bush here . I dont think thats necessarily a hit on jeb bush or anything like that. Its clear hes trying to position himself as the candidate of the future, which would put him in opposition to a handful of other folks in the field who are not known as being as fresh a face as, perhaps, marco rubio is. The new American Century has been rubios Campaign Theme from the very beginning. So, this isnt really a change for him. This is his message all along. He told jeb bush told reporters over the weekend, im going to get better. I ought to get better. I know i have to get better. Especially when hes talking about his debate performance. If he comes out just swinging in week away now. , that is only a next tuesday night. Could that really turn it around, hilary . Well, sure, you know, look, iowa is still several months away and he can turn it around. People can rise and fall before then. Theres just nothing hes exhibiting now that makes me think he will turn it around. Marco rubio is an extremely pal talented position and what hes doing, and in particular, what is going to happen to america next year, the year after, the year after that. Thats what jeb bush needs to be doing. Thats what these republicans need to be doing. Theyre so stuck in how to fend off each other and how to negotiate around the larger, you know, problems thats just primary politics. Isnt that just the way it is . It is the way it is, but the only way you can break out is to actually step out. And, you know, thats what jeb bush needs to do. Marco rubio has done that in the last two days. You know, jeb bush kind of needs to do the same thing. Thank you so much. One historical note, jeb bush brought up abe lincoln, that guy never had to debate. Except for the lincoln the most famous debates in history. They have been behind barz for years but today more than 6,000 inmates being released across this country under the orders of the president. Critics say, this is a risky move. Well discuss. Plus, some of the republican candidates are demanding changes to future debates. A couple of their rivals are saying, get over it, stop whining. Whos winning here . Well speak live with the rnc about the Campaign Rising up against everybody else. Oh no. under his breath hey man hey peter. unenthusiastic oh. Ha ha ha joanne . Is that you . Its me. You dont look a day over 70. Am i right . Jingle jingle. If youre peter pan, you stay young forever. Its what you do. If you want to save fifteen percent or more on Car Insurance, you switch to geico. You make me feel so young. Its what you do. You make me feel so spring has sprung. 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