Support. Once again, donald trump is proving to be the singular no show in iowa. Of the main contenders, hes the only one not here. Trump instead in New Hampshire. Boasting about his move to skip the Republican Debate in des moines is the right thing. He raised 6 million for veterans. Number one, we have february 1st. I think were going to do really well in iowa. Were leading in the iowa polls now. Leading pretty good. And cruz is in second place. He got really pumped last night. Actually, im glad wasnt there because i guess he got pummeled, wow and, you know, they didnt even mention that he was born in canada. Trump is due back in iowa tomorrow. Let me turn to our executive editor of cnn politics mark pressen who is joining me now. To that pummeling note he mentioned, is it really fair granted, a lot of people agree it was not a great night for ted cruz but is it fair for the guy who didnt even show up at the debate to say the guy got pummeled . Who uses that type of language in a president ial race . We could have said that five months ago. They didnt even say he was a canadian citizen. Look, this is a campaign we have never seen in our lifetime. Donald trump is doing things we would never ever think a candidate could do. But hes right, cruz had a terrible night. It was because of the other candidates on stage who decided to turn their fire on trump. In fact two of them, rand paul and marco rubio who served with him in the senate, had this to say about him. What is particularly insulting, though, is that he is the king of saying, oh, youre for amnesty. Everybodys for amnesty except for ted cruz. But its a falseness. Thats an authenticity problem. That everybody he knows is not as perfect as him because were all for amnesty. This is the lie that teds campaign is built on. Hes the most conservative guy and everyone else is, you know, a rhino. The truth is ted throughout this campaign u be campaign, youve been willing to say or do anything to get votes. You worked for bushs campaign. In the committee you said i want to bring people out of the shadows. Now you want to trump trump on immigration. Here we go, the reason why that is significant is because you have marco rubio on one side, cruz on the other side. From different political sides and they came together. A lot of people are talking about rubio. About how he really shown last night. And we know its all about getting that evangelical vote. He was try to steal those voters away from ted cruz. Whats interesting is we havent highlighted it enough in the media is marco rubio talks often about his faith when hes on the campaign trail. It doesnt get picked up by us but we talked about his faith often and we saw that last night. As rubio and cruz sort of fumbled over what they do or dont support when it comes to immigration specifically, Chris Christie jumped in, winning some of the biggest cheers of the night by saying, you know what, its okay to change your mind. I feel like i need a washington to English Dictionary convertor, right. I mean, heard what they both said. I saw it on the video. The fact is this is what makes a difference when youre a governor. You can change your mind. Ted could change his mind. Its perfectly legal to change your mind. When youre governor, you have to admit it. You cant hide behind parliamentary tricks. Thats the difference. Stop the washington bull and lets get things done. So lets follow through on who supported what when it comes to immigration. With me now republican strategist and cnn political commentator Margaret Hoover and david yapson, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois university. And formerly with the Des Moines Register. Youre back from a phenomenal maternity leave. Want to say. Welcome back. So david, to you first. On immigration and the fact that, you know, the moderators did show some videos highlighting how one person said one thing back in the day and how theyve evolved or flipflopped, whatever word you want to use. Who is closest to telling the truth on immigration . I couldnt do a truth watch on that. They really do confuse the issue. They both have been on different sides of this. So theyre both trying to drive to each others negatives. Its a hot issue with republicans. Its not the only driving issue but it is an important issue. What did you think on it . Well, in the room played differently. And in the room people who watched it say that was marcos weakest moment. On television i thought he threaded the needle well. He said were not going to deport 11 million people. But theres foregive the term a centrist way handling this that is humane and consistent with the principles that made this country great. I want to stay on marco rubio. Let me pull my prop. Because everybodys been showing the cover of the de mine register today and talking about yes, rough night for ted cruz. Who else is in the picture. Marco rubio. Yes, the paper has endorsed him. To me, it was a strong night for him. And my question though is when you think about marco rubio, listen, hes not going to win iowa. You think ahead to South Carolina when a lot of those, you know, primary state republican voters, theyre not going to they dont typically show up. Hes losing to trump. What rubio has said all along. I think the plan high in the sky before trump was three, two, one. Third place in iowa, second place in New Hampshire, first place in South Carolina. From multiple people in the party that rubios on the rise. He did himself good last night. Most iowans have not made up their mind. The decision, many of then, the last day of the caucus. There still is an opening for marco maybe third or maybe even better. Hes sort of a default candidate for a lot of people. I heard people say rubios good or okay or i want to know more. Dont underestimate the power of what happened at the caucus site itself. Explain that. This isnt the primary where you go in and cast the vote. You meet with your neighbors. You talk politics. If i think you know something about politics and you say you like candidate a, maybe ill join with you. That neighbor to neighbor thing is very powerful. Thats where i think rubio comes in. Kind of the default candidate who everybody in the party can see as something they like. Tea party people, prolife people, moderates in the party. But youve seen he is coming up. Were in the final crucial three days. Youve seen the numbers how trump and cruz are neck and neck. What does camp rubio need to do to change that in the final stretch . Theyre doing it. Remember, polls are a lousy predictor of what happens on caucus night. Lots of margin of error. So rubios doing what he has to do. Moving around. Getting some buzz going. I think margarets right. He did hold his own stylistically on that immigration debate. Thats important, how he handled himself. Yeah, hes moving up. Final thought from you. Sprint to the finish now. I mean, everybody will tell you here in iowa, nobodys ever seen anything like this. Even as we talk about the nuances and immigration, it doesnt matter. This is a donald trump year. He has changed the table and is running it. 30 years at the paper here, ever see anything like this . Obama campaign on the democratic side. You know, theres something that happens. Two candidates get into it the way cruz and trump have gotten into it on immigration. The third candidate could be the real winner and that could be rubio. David yepsen and Margaret Hoover, thank you. This weekend, Ted Cruz MarcoRubio Bernie Sanders they will all be on state of the union right here on cnn. If iowa is not bellwether for the eventually nominees, is the nations first prize overrated . Also ahead, the ratings are in. Trump predicted the debate would be a disaster. Find out exactly how many people tuned in to his event compared to the debate with the rest of the candidates. Also ahead, Hillary Clinton releasing an ad featuring attorney general, former attorney general eric holder. Critics say shes fearmongering with this. Decide for yourself. This is how banks used to see me. Ever since i had a pretty bad accident three years ago. The medical bills the Credit Card Debt all piled up. I knew i had to get serious my credit. Whfight back fastts tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies only from tums hi this is conor. Usic sorry i missed you. Im either away from my desk or on another call. Please leave a message and ill get back to you just as soon as im available. Thank you for patience at this busy time. Join Princess Cruises for stargazing with discovery at sea. Book now for savings up to 1,000 per stateroom plus up to 600 free onboard spending money. Call your travel consultant or 1800princess. Princess cruises. Come back new. Every Auto Insurance policy has a number. But not every Insurance Company understands the life behind it. Those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. And were back. Youre watching cnn. Brook baldwin live in des moines, iowa. With the exception of donald trump who is in New Hampshire at the moment, republicans and democrats are busy crisscrossing this state today with only three days remaining before the nations first president ial contest of this election year. They are busy, busy, holding rallies and town halls. Even though the road to the white house begins in iowa history shows since the 1970s only three republicans and five democrats who won here have actually gone on to win their respective partys domination. The question were asking today is iowa overrated. Joined now by political reporter may wesson and in new york republican pollster kelly ann conway. Shes also the president and ceo of the Polling Company and does analytics for one of ted cruzs superpacs. Maev, im just going to turn to you, why does iowa matter . Its the first in the nation contest obviously and a lot of people in the party would like to change that. But this goes back to even the 70s when someone like jimmy carter came to iowa. Little known georgia governor who was able to work his way around the state and really reshape the president ial contest. And so its a place where people can come without huge advertising dollars. Levels of playing field. Really stand out by going to these tiny towns, you know, sometimes with just 20 people in the room and thats why people like Rick SantorumMike Huckabee have been able to win in these last contests because they really worked it and people over time got to know them and then they pulled off the surprise on caucus night. And then ultimately they didnt win the partys nomination. Then barack obama, obviously was a different story for him in 08. If the caucuses arent the best indicator, then why continue the tradition . Because in politics inertia is the most powerful force until taken over by friction. These conversations happen almost constantly. Lets change it and why are iowa and New Hampshire so dominant. Next week, well talk a little about iowa and then it will fade to you. We have four contests, two ux ka caucuses, just in the month of february. There are candidates for whom iowa makes this difference. It puts them on the map because the shoe leather and the showing up is how you win iowa. I do suspect the way you started this segment is the way everybody who does not win on monday night will come out on tuesday. They will say well it doesnt really matter because i want to be the nominee and iowa has a bad record of picking the nominee. I think to maeves point, if you had someone like donald trump who just rolls in and chunks a bunch of money down for ads, it wouldnt be fair to everyone else. Quote, iowa looks nothing like the rest of america. As a result, the winners mor s often than not. Youre supposed to recognize the fraud of cruz and how trump is playing you. Youre not doing your job. Your bull manure detector is broken. Youre smiling but is there any truth . The people you meet out in these towns really do reflect, you know, what people are thinking in the heartland. So to that ek stent it is important. Someone like ted cruz has really connected with evangelicals here. At the same time, donald trump has upended every piece of this race here in iowa by coming in. Its really just all conventional wisdom might not matter and the vetting might not matter of the other candidates because donald trump may just blow it out. In three days, what could be the Biggest Surprise . That donald trump does not win. Hes been leading every single poll nationwide. With most states with the exception of one or two polls. Like the entire time, six months. If he doesnt win, it doesnt mean the polls are wrong it means exactly what maeve just said that voters have a funny way of repeating history or making it. Theyre poised to make history because i think the establishment candidates are actually getting nowhere in iowa. Theyll start going New Hampshire. The other big story, if trump does win iowa, by how much. Because its not winner take all. Four or five people at least will walk out with delegates in their pockets. And to everyones point, you know, here in iowa you can change your point. This is not checking a box. This is a coming in, listening and change your mind. Maeve weston and kelly ann, thank you. Liked the inertia quote by the way. Coming up next you can have it. Thank you. Did donald trump steal the show without showing up to that Republican Debate right . The ratings are in. Well see what the debate numbers look like without the front rrunner on the stage. Also ahead, was it an inside job . We have to talk about this today. Reports of a Major Development involving that Russian Airliner suspected of being bombed out of the sky over egypt. Focus now turning to an airline mechanic. Thats straight ahead. A card game is always different when theres no trump but it appears thats not the case for the seventh republican primary faceoff. It did not feature trump. The trumpless debate clocked 12 million viewers. Thats the Second Lowest viewership of the debates thus far this season. Far more than the 2 millionplus people who watched coverage of trumps competing event. With me the man who watched all the numbers with us at cnn. Host of cnn reliable sources john stelter. A great to have both of you on. Brian, i can imagine your eagerness getting the numbers. How did it stack up against previous debates . It is a fascinating case. Donald trump knows hes a ratings magnet. We can show how much this is comparing to prior debates. You can see here december 15th our debate in las vegas from about a month and a half ago, 18 million. There was a more recent debate. It was on fox business. You can see in the middle of the screen, it had 11 million. So the message today from the fox news side is we beat the ratings from two weeks ago. The debate on fox business was on a harder to find channel and it wasnt nearly as much drama and anticipation. This debate was hyped like no debate had been before. I think when we see there were only 12. 5 million viewers, it means that some of trumps fans definitely did not watch fox. Instead, they went to find trump on cnn or msnbc or online or on cspan so there was clearly some impact. I think trump did do some damage from foxs ratings. Ted cruz, marco rubio, they were still in front a big audience last night. They had a great opportunity to speck speak to 10 million voters. The question is did they squander it or not. Jill, do you think it was a risk worth taking for trump seeing those numbers . I absolutely do lly do. I dont see how he could have avoided it because fox made a little box they couldnt get out of. Once those nasty comments were made about mr. Trump, not by a columnist, not somebody like bill oreilly whos paid to give his opinion, but by the Public Relations department. Once that was made, then mr. Trump had a perfect excuse to get out of the debate. Whether or not he was afraid of megyn kelly, didnt know. Kind of doubt that. I find her to be a very tough interviewer. So i think mr. Trump actually ended up on top once again. And, you know, perception really does, to use a phrase, trump reality. And if in the minds of viewers, mr. Trump comes off as the person who has shown a powerful leader as i think he did then regardless of whether you like him or not, he won the day. There was a risk though with if there is a check in the win column for trump, does he dare try Something Like this again . Well, wow. Go ahead, brian. Brian, im going to give this one to you. Well, this time next week, theres a debate on abc. If trump doesnt go to that debate, everybodys going to say the same thing. You are afraid to debate. I think he has no choice. Hell have to go to next weeks debate. You raise an interesting question down the road. Can he continue to do this if he gets upset with the Television Network . Can he threaten to take himself away . I do think its possible. Unfortunately i think the Campaign Manager went a little too far setting expectations this week. He said on morning joe i think without trump this debate might only get 1 million or 2 million viewers. That was obviously an overstatement. So although he does have some ratings pull, its not 100 . I would agree with that. Jill, last question to you. Go ahead. And then ive got one more. I agree with that because you know, first off, the abc debate is logically going to be viewed by more people because the networks have a bigger draw then the Cable Networks do. In fact, a lot of my students arent even subscribed to cable television. So the only way theyre going to say it aint so, jill. Well get them hooked up for you. Actually, in this se