A recap of the days news. Its always the same counties. In other places, its ohio. Theyre pretty good at it. Were at 66 here, the early votes came in, this was blue at first, now its gone, back to its dna. If you look at any map in america. Heres the city, out here is red, and look at the margins, 70 . 67 . You move away from the cities, youre in republican country. You come down to the suburbs the republican incumbent won this race. Danny oconnor has done what he needs to do. As you move a little more away, affluent republicans here some of them like trump, some like the tax cut. This is now your tug of war in Todays Republican Party playing out in an affluent suburban county here. Is winning that by 53 enough. Its not necessarily a fair comparison, because its a not only did he win by 11 points. We should underscore this is a district that has not had a democratic representative in almost 40 years, before you were born, don. I wish. It really is remarkable. And the answer to why its so close is in large part because of the energy that we have seen on the democratic side for a long time, but energy obviously only gets you so far when its such a ruby red historically district. And in is a candidate who has done things right, focused on the local issues, the bread and butter issues, on the flip side, have you a republican candidate who in any other year would be fine. But he was a little slow on the uptake on seeing this big challenge coming his way. He had the reinforcements come, in the Vice President , the president and others. Democrats had already sewn the seeds for their candidate who has been doing a pretty good job. Gloria, let me put the lady in the blue dress. Thats not an indication of anything i just want to ask you, i think a good way of putting it, this district has been republican since reagan, since the 80s. Is this an indication of a blue wave . I think democrats would like to think if they win, this is an indication of a blue wave. This shouldnt even be a race. There are a few things you need to think about, one is, donald trump. There are people in this district, very educated district. That makes a difference. Higher percentage of educated voters over 25 than any other district in the state. You said 23. Theyre not looking for 23 near
wins, theyre looking for 23 wins. What they have is enthusiasm. In the level of interest among democrats in this district. The last poll i looked at was 66 . This is an election in august in an off year. Its and they have to run again by the way in november. And 66 of democrats say they want to come out and vote about you look at that and republicans are kind of thinking, all right, things are good, things are fine. I dont need to get out there. The governor endorsed the republican even though democrats like him better than john kasich. Thats not as interesting. Are republicans scared . No, theyre not scared. These elections should be wakeup
calls to our base that shouldnt be complacent. Every election right now, whether its for judge, dog catcher, democrats are bringing in an 11 on a 10 scale. Theyre fired up and showing up. Republicans are off on their fishing boat in august. Thats why i think the encouraging thing is, the specials are different. In the november election, that wont be the case. This evens out a little more, everyone knows theres an election in november, in 2010. More of a motivation for ads in august . These specials happen at odd times. When we won in a huge way we lost four specials. I was working there in 2010. We lost four specials and 63 seats in november. Specials are special for a reason. The turnout is very different. Democrats are going to show up at every election right now. Republicans wont as much, until
you get to november, and then they will be there. The test for republicans is are you comfortable right now that november is going to go your way . The historic average is that the president s party loses 26 seats. We need to be history by four seats. Our base needs to watch tonight and say, you know what, other networks are telling them everythings fine, its not. Nancy pelosi could be the speaker of the house this he need to quit that, and they need to understand opinion nancy pelosi could be the speaker, once they understand that, they will show up in november. Political analyst ryan liz saturday. The president visited here, hes watching now im sure. I think hes probably he takes these things very personally. He weighs in on a race, he likes to take credit if his candidate wins. Usually hell find some excuse to tweet about why he had
nothing to do with it. By the end of the night, were going do have a really good indication thats going to tell us a lot about the National Environment in november. Its basically a tie. This is going to be this race is going to end up a tie. Its going to be that close. If you want to think objectively. Republicans have held this since reagan, this is a win for democrats, at this point. The most important indicator is how much do the democrats improve compared to the last election . This is a plus seven Republican District which means the partisanship is seven points on the republican side. Maybe the democrats will come up a little short and not win. You want to look at how much did they swing. How did the democrats improve in this district. We have enough elections to see what the average is its in the
doubledigits. That means the democrats are going to look at that Playing Field and say, we have a chance in every sort of every time the republicans have won one of the specials theyve said how important specials are. Congressional republicans are scared tonight. Theres no question about that. Put this in context. Democrats have to win 24 seats to retake the house. 25 of those seats were won by Hillary Clinton, those districts were won by Hillary Clinton in the election. There are 17 districts across the country where she had a better percentage than in this district. This seat was 17th down on the priority list. After the 24, this is this seat was so far out of what we need to get to take back the house, republicans are youre saying regular rules dont apply . No, i think that and
gloria mentioned this this is indicative of a wave. Because if we take this seat tonight. And it theres no question that the momentum is moving, republicans are scared, theyre going to decide, do i run with donald trump or run away from him. Mike brought up, if you work at the nrcc i was thinking about the days i was on campaigns and things. You never want to spend this kind of money on a Special Election. Theres been millions of dollars spent for a Special Election in august in a plus 7 Republican District. Thats never a good sign. If you have to spend that kind of money and its either this close or we lose. Thats not a good sign going into november. That means have you to spend that kind of money in many districts in order to keep the house. The Get Out The Vote effort is what matters at this time. Democrats are the ones that are
more fired up right now. Can i ask you something . Democrats are motivated, republicans are not motivated right now. What is the bottom line here, is this an antitrump sentiment happening . Theres no other explanation for why a district that looks like this. Other than donald trump is stepping all over his own message in question. Its not getting through because of the tweets. Because of his controversial attacks on people, the more educated suburbs and districts are saying, we dont like this. Suburban women are not comfortable with whats going on with donald trump either. Can we talk about women i want to i meant could we do it after the break. Paying close attention to ohio. It is neck and neck there. People confuse nice and kind. But theyre different. Nice tells you what you want to hear. But kind is honest. This bars made with Delicious Cranberries and almonds. So, guess what . We call it cranberry almond. Find your favorite and give kind® a try. I love you, Basement Bathroom of solitude, but sometimes you stink. Febreze air effects doesnt just mask, it cleans away odors. Because the things you love can stink. The new united Explorer Card makes things easy. Traveling lighter. Taking a shortcut. woooo taking a breather. Rewarded learn more at theexplorercard. Com
come over here to see our chief National Correspondent at the magic wall for us. Whats outstanding now . During your break, troy aldersons lead increased from 700 votes up to 1685 votes. Stretching out the lead a tiny bit there, whats outstanding, delaware county, were up to 96 now. Hes got up to 54 . Youve been leading most of the night, youre starting to get a little nervous here thats where the bulk comes from. Youve been saying that needs to turn red. If this stays blue zani oconnor is in play. His campaign thought all along, if they could get 65 , theyre in contention. The question is, and they did what they wanted to do here, theres a little bit left. How much . 1 of the precincts. Is it enough to offset what
were waiting for here. Delaware county has made the difference. 100 , 100 , 100 . We are down to the tiny percentage here and here. Delaware county, this is where the president s rally was has helped Troy Balderson, and whats left. I want to make this point as we go back to the full congressal district. Were dancing in the ballpark, its in a district wide race. 0. 5 much were dancing near that, even if were just outside of that. Weve been happen my up to today the lawyers will be involved tomorrow. When its this close, were not going to have a definitive winner tonight. Whats the trigger for the recount. I believe in a district wide race, its 0. 5 . So were in the area of that now, its a little as of this moment, its just outside of it, but we still have some votes to count. Its the most significant bart of this, we need it for the count. Its amazing to be here, when you weve been saying all night, a district thats been red since reagan, since you and i were in diapers, now all of a sudden, theyre in this neck and neck. I wasnt in diapers quite, but i appreciate that. This is a moral victory for the democrats. The fact that theyre this close, its a moral victory for the democrats. You dont get a participation trophy. To that point, let me go through a couple things for you here. If the republicans eke this out tonight, its going to be because their outside groups spent more than 5. 2 million from may to august. They had to send in the Multimillion Dollar Calvary here. Number two, as you look ahead to november, if democrats are competitive in districts that
are 88 white. Well then the democrats are going to retake the house. Is this an anomaly or across america . If this is across america, and democrats are running even in districts, thats supposed to be a Republican District knew paid any attention to the president ial race, thats supposed to be a ruby red Republican District and its teetering at 5050 tonight. Were going to pop out to this. This tonight is the last Special Election. We go through the primary season we have these 95 kui house rices, this will determine which Party Controls the house. 82 of these are held by republicans, theyre already on their heels defending, ohio 12 is right in here. Ryan cillizza was making the point, its a plus 7 district. These are the Hillary Clinton districts. This is a Hillary Clinton district. Those ones tonight, if ohio 12
is 5050. And youre one of these republicans, you are already nervous, tonight youre panicked, if youre one of these other republicans, this is an r plus 7. So what if youre in an r plus 5 or r plus three . You better raise more money. You better hope the president between now and november. Were talking about wall money, you dont want any of that. You want to go home and campaign. What are you saying if youre one of these republicans, you say he came to campaign for balder son, do you want him to campaign for you . In a house race, let me bring that back up in most up here. Sure. Up here, no way. If you live in the close suburbs, if you have a district that has any percentage of latino voters, no way. If youre in a district that Hillary Clinton won, no way. You dont want the president , in the senate races, west virginia, north dakota, indiana, they want
the president , they think its a statewide turnout, statewide race, senate race, the president is for most, not all. In most of those big senate races, especially the ones in the prairie. The president s an asset to the reason candidates there. Look at these house races more closely. The ones that touch the suburbs, they dont want the president of the united states. They dont. Also women are going to make a big difference. When we come back, much more. Well get back to you throughout the evening. Much more on the Breaking News. What could all of this mean for novembers midterms . Well be right back. With our largest variety of crab all year like new crabfest combo. Your one chance to have new Jumbo Snow Crab with tender dungeness crab. Or try crab lovers dream. But hurry in. Cause Crabfest will be gone in a snap. Dinner date. Meeting his parents dinner date. Why did i want a crest 3d white smile . So i used crest. Crest 3d white removes. 95 of Surface Stains in just 3 days. For a whiter smile. That will win them over. Crest. Healthy, beautiful smiles for life. But i am a simple farmer. Bas my life is here. [telephone ring] ahoyhoy. Alexander graham bell here. No, no, my number is one, you must want two two, i say like my father before. [telephone ring] like my father before. Ahoyhoy as long as people talk too loudly on the phone, you can count on geico saving folks money. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Were back now with our Breaking News, cnn Special Election coverage in ohio, which could be a safe should be a Congressional District for republicans, too close to call tonight if you look up on your screen. Tory balderson who is republican, 50. 1 . Danny oconnor. 49. 3 . Im back now with dana, ryan, gloria, ryan, tara, mike and hillary. Did i leave anybody out . And don. When last we saw each other, were talking about the democrats in this particular race. I know Education Levels are important, women are important. Suburbs are really important. This is where john kasich who endorsed balderson, we all believe reluctantly and late. This is where he can help republicans, hes popular with suburban republican women. I think Republican Voters are favored in this. They were turned off by trump. Do you agree with this . Yes, women were turned off by trump, but theyre not single issue, okay, the economys good, im making a good living, my husbands making a good living, and i dont want to i voted for him last time, i dont think i made a mistake, theres all of this factors into this, but i just spoke with a republican operative who said, were afraid of getting hammered by women in delaware county. Thats what were afraid of. Were going to be talking a lot about this in november on Election Night, because this is something that even people who are working on the president s Political Team acknowledge is a big issue. When the president tweets. When the president it was in the news about his alleged hush money for people he had affairs with, all of those things, they see a real dip among women particularly suburban women, and those 23 seats that are going to determine whether or not republicans or democrats hold have control of the house are going to be fought largely in suburbs where the women voters are going to determine who wins or loses. And a lot of the retirements were in these republican, suburban districts. Can i speak to that real quick. A Special Election is an open seat. Thats another reason to look at this and not look at it as a bellwether. I know the Talking Point is, this is a bellwether. Open seats are different than incumbent seats. They get reelected. They can raise money. They have name i. D. She started off that campaign with high name i. D. , because she had been the County Commissioner in fulton county. It was a different type of race than a normal special. And a Special Election. People dont know who the candidates are, you have low information voters on our side, they dont understand who the candidates are, you have to spend more money and turn out your vote about the democrats start off with. That would be true if the district Wasnt Republican for 30, 40 years. The special most people just go republican. 1873. How many seats do you have in the fall . Theres about 8. We have to hold on to eight historically open seats in an election like this are much harder. I concede that point. Thats why this is harder. If we can eke out elections like this we only need to beat history by four districts for us to keep the house. Heres another point you have to concede. In that Special Election in
georgia, she did not let donald trump come and campaign for her. In that suburban district. Thats an incorrect fact. He didnt show up. Immediately after the primary, we had donald trump fly to the district. We had him record a robo call, Vice President pence into the district. Thats factually incorrect. He was not out there, and she did not talk about him, there was no conversation about donald trump. Also not true. Im sorry republicans have a coalition that includes trump voters and independents this is why today matters, because donald trump decided when he was going to a rally i