Good evening. Im erin burnett. Outfront tonight, we begin with breaking news. Monday store storm. The first major blizzard of the winter with recordbreaking snowfall, treacherous ice, 60mileanhour winds, the possibility of tornadoes. All of this bearing down on 75 million americans from oklahoma to the midatlantic, all the way up the east coast. Tonight, north carolina, virginia, maryland, pennsylvania as well as washington, d. C. , all declaring states of emergency. Deadly Winter Weather already claiming three lives. President obamas helicopter was grounded because the snow was too heavy last night, forcing his motorcade, that you see here, to slip and slide through the icy street of washington just to get back to the white house last night. You can see that ride. Tonight, over 2,000 flights are already canceled. Amtrak has been Cutting Service on its heavily traveled northeast corridor and all of this is coming in preparation for much worse weather to come. We are covering all angles of this massive storm and begin with our meteorologist chad myers who is here with me. Chad, what is the forecast . Its big and its strong. If im in new york, its big and its strong. You bring me up here and something bad is happening. Thats why they say, why dont you ever talk about san diego . Because when i talk about your town, something bad is about to happen and we have a massive winter storm here. 75 Million People in the way. Winter storm warnings, ice storm warnings. Its going to be a blizzard couple of days here for many, many people. Something else, erin, were going to notice. Someone is going to be surprised. I know these models have been acting perfectly for days and days and days. Something is going to happen that we didnt expect. Were going to look at it on tuesday and say, wow, didnt see this one coming. We have all of these computer weather models and they are basically thats our window to the world of what we think is coming up. Take a look at the american model. Theyve been doing a fantastic job, if it all comes true, because its been looking the same now for days and days. Well go now to the european model. It looks very similar. A slightly different bullseye but ive kept that circle different but very similar. Were getting towards our closerin typically more accurately models. Notice this. New york city, a little more snow up there. Now youre talking about 8 to 10 inches there. A little less around d. C. And now we take a look at our scary model because all of a sudden this local, typically active model when it comes to a short term saying big snow, thats almost two feet of snow. Still, somewhere in the cat skills. Thats not the forecast but its certainly possible here across some of these areas of new york, pennsylvania, d. C. Something else youre going to notice is almost like a tornado where one side of the street gets hit and the other side doesnt, this is going to be a storm where you may see 36 inches in gaithersburg, maryland, and in annapolis or over the bay bridge in d. C. , you may get 6 or 8. Its going to be a fine line between bad and not so bad. Richmond, virginia, probably 20 inches or so around there. Then we talk about the wind, waves, storm surge. There will be coastal erosion, flooding. And then all of a sudden, and ive put this together, 24 inches of snow with 60mileperhour wind gusts, you get 4 inches of snow in one spot and the rest in the back because of the drift. The good news is, its a saturday. You can just take a deep breath and hopefully you can stay home because this is the biggest storm of the year. Certainly and maybe the biggest storm in many, many years. Its pretty incredible. Get your sled out. Im ready. Thats why im here. First sled, hes ready to go. It better not be the 2 inch model. I dont know how i would break it to him. The threat of the storm is sending shoppers into stores to stock up. They are not just stocking up on food but generators as well. Chris frates is outfront. Reporter some are calling this a storm of historic proportions. With some 75 million americans in the storms path, governors along the east coast path are declaring states of emergency and deploying the national guard. The Nations Capital is in the bullseye of the storm. Heaters, shovels and sleds are flying off the shelves. Take action now and prepare before the Severe Weather strikes. Make sure you have food and supplies at home. Not just to last for the weekend but enough to last up to an entire week. Reporter in washington, the mayor is already under fire after an inch of snow last night crippled the area making some e some wonder if they are ready up for 30 inches to fall. We are very sorry for an adequate response. We should have been out earlier with more resources. Reporter as the snow began to stick, untreated roads quickly turned to ice. Some drivers were stuck behind the wheel for hours. It was pretty rough going home. It took an hour to go four miles. Reporter others just abandoned their cars and pedestrians were not spared from the hellish conditions either. President obamas motorcade didnt fair much better either. Slipping and sliding on the streets. Its a reminder how much the president is going to miss having access to marine one a year from now. Reporter now, officials in maryland, virginia, north carolina, pennsylvania and d. C. Have all declared a state of emergency. That qualifies them for federal assistance, including the national guard, if necessary. And in the city itself, schools will be closed all day tomorrow and the City Government will be leaving early. Thats all in an effort to keep cars off the road so that they can start to get the roads salted, to treat the roads and avoid a repeat of the disaster that we had yesterday. Back to you in that warm, warm studio, erin. Oh, yes. Its going to be amazing seeing those pictures. That was a little baby storm ahead of this massive storm coming. You heard chris talking about it but now the Major Airlines have canceled more than 2,000 flights. American airlines is going to be suspending flights up and down the east coast starting tomorrow. Rene marsh is outfront live at Reagan National airport in washington. They are canceling all of these flights. Are they trying to get people out ahead of time . How are they actually doing this . Reporter they want to but the bottom line is, erin, everyone is not going to get out ahead of the storm. There are too many flights affected. Heres the reality, though. Im at Reagan National airport, just outside of washington, d. C. , and at some point on saturday, airport operations here will come to a complete stop. Same situation at Dulles Airport in virginia here in the washington d. C. Area. We have a situation between tomorrow, saturday as well as into sunday where will you see some east coast airports where operations will either be limited or stop completely. So heres the question. If youre flying, what you need to know is, act this hour, we are still seeing flights go in and out. Thats the good news. But tomorrow is when things are going to start to get dicey. Thats when the problems begin. Weve seen that many of the majors have already canceled over 2,000 flights and as the day goes on tomorrow, were going to see even more cancellations. All right. Massive, massive storm. Thank you, rene. I want to go out to the governor of virginia, terry mcauliffe. Youve already declared a state of emergency. Youve authorized the national guard. You had a smaller storm ahead of the massive one come through. Now you could be looking at 20 inches of snow, deadly ice. Do you have the equipment to handle this type of storm . Well, i went out this morning to declare a state of emergency at 8 00 this morning. What that allows you to be able to do is get rid of the Weight Restrictions on the roads, reposition all of your heavy equipment. We send 500 trucks out yesterday to Northern Virginia to get ready for the first incident we had yesterday. Now weve authorized 13,000 pieces of equipment. We have 2500 personnel on the streets. We have 650,000 tons of salt, about 2 million gallons of liquid salt. So we have the materials that we need. We have the personnel. Ive just activated 500 National Guardsmen and women. Were ready. This could be one feet to three feet in virginia. Were prepared. Weve got everybody in place and theres no State Government operations tomorrow. So ive closed the State Government. Lets keep folks off the road so our personnel can do their work. Pretty stunning numbers youre putting out there. Washington, d. C. , is suspending the metro service. Last year, ill never forget traveling when the roads were closed. Travel was banned last winter. We were only on the road because we were covering it here at cnn. How far are you prepared to go . Are you going to be shutting down the roads . Well, were going to look at everything. Were very good at this. Weve taken all of the precautions, as i said, yesterday before anything occurred, i sent 500 trucks out to do the pretreatment on the Northern Virginia roads that we had. 13,000 pieces of equipment now deployed. So our folks are out there laying down the materials that we need to be ready. We feel very comfortable about where we are. As i say, i worry about parts of virginia, southwest virginia, many of our rural communities, very difficult when you get one to two to three feet of snow. Elderly individuals. Pplies, thats why weve deployed and activated the national guard. As you know, were in Northern Virginia with all of those cars, im imploring people, if you dont have to go out tomorrow, dont go out. Its going to get warmer later on on sunday, monday and tuesday. Let the crews do what they need to do and we can get back to normalcy as soon as possible. Most of the schools are possible. I shut down the State Government. I feel were on top of this. Its important we do it. Its my job to keep these communities safe and were on top of these situations. Governor mcauliffe, thank you. Good luck. Thank you, erin. Outfront next, breaking news, a new poll in iowa shows that the race has shifted and i mean dramatically. Stunning numbers coming up after the break. And the ted cruz pileon tonight. More and more Republican Leaders are saying, vote trump, not cruz. And sarah palin back in the spotlight pitching donald trump as selling a lot of sweaters. Your path to retirement. May not always be clear. But at t. 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To give you context, hes leading by eight points in the poll today. He was trailing by 18 in our same poll just one month ago. Thats why we use the word stunning. Dana bash is outfront. When you look at the poll, trump and sanders, it looks like, are running away from it. But theres one major caveat. They will bring in the new caucusgoers because i want to show our viewers what the numbers would look like if it was just the caucusgoers who went to the polls or caucuses in 2008 the last time there was a democratic nomination. It was 55 to 38. That is based on the people who went to the caucuses eight years ago. Ironic, since she lost, she actually came in third in those caucuses. But lets look at the republican side. Very similar dynamic for donald trump and ted cruz. If it were the same people caucusing in 11 days that went in 2012 four years ago, it would be a dead heat, a statistical high. Its basically a dead heat. What does this tell us . It really matters. Even more so in these iowa caucuses. Because donald trump and Bernie Sanders, to make those big leads that you started with a reality, they are going to have to convince the people that have been lining up for them in the rallies and telling pollsters who are going to go with them to these caucuses, many of whom have not gone before. What about evangelicals . Are they settling in and getting convinced who they are going to vote for . Thats a place where, on the republican side, ted cruz still has a slight edge. Well show you that. He now has a 33 among evangelicals, up from 26 just last month. Donald trump isnt that far behind, though. Hes at 31 , up from 41. So they both have more of a share of the evangelical electorate in iowa. If so, very close and perhaps surprising since ted cruz is so fluent in sort of talking the talk of the evangelicals and now donald trump now famously earlier this week at Liberty University kind of fumbled the bible verse that he was quoting. It doesnt seem to matter to evangelicals who really are an important, a key part of the caucus electorate in the state of iowa, erin. Dana bash, thank you. 60 of the caucusgoers on the republican side are evangelicals in iowa. Lets go to David Challian and ron brownstein. Youve been covering president ial elections at the nitty gritty levels who votes and why for years. Is it reasonable to count on turnout increasing as much as donald trump and Bernie Sanders need it to . With the scars to prove it, erin. Look, yeah. I think that is obviously the big question. You know, many more candidates have talked about expanding the electorate that have succeeded at expanding the electorate. Barack obama clearly was able to do that. I think theres no question, at least on the republican side, theres got to be some trump effect. People are not going to stand out in the cold for hours and then all of them not show up. The question is how big an effect. Right. As dana pointed out, youre looking at a very stark difference on the democratic side. Will these young people flocking to sanders and more blue collar disaffected voters, will they show up . That is the challenge each campaign faced. Thats why this poll is better for the outsider candidates than many of the others that were seeing and pinpoints the real question, what does the electorate look like and how many of them are new . Obama in 2008 and how he won iowa because of turnout, youre talking about a doubling in numbers. Do trump and sanders need a similar jump to win or what is the smallest amount that they can get away with and still pull that victory off . If you go back to 2004 and look at what the democratic turnout was then, 125,000 that showed up in that kerry and dean race. It explodes to some 240,000 members. Caucus goers. If you are modeling, as the clinton folks are perhaps, a little closer to looking at 04 than 08, thats a universe of dedicated, tried and true caucusgoers and that clearly benefits clinton. But it doesnt necessarily need to be at obama levels for the sanders surge to materialize. It just needs to be a lot closer to 2008 than 2004. That game of numbers is what exactly every campaign, erin, is going to look for, as everyone shows up to these caucus sites, the first thing they are going to do is, hey, are there a lot more people that have been here before . If there are, they are going to say, we have not seen numbers like this at this caucus location before. This may bode to be a very good night for us. Ron, this issue of turnout is one that donald trump is very, very worried about. Right. Hes talked about it. Here he is. Youve got to get out and vote. If you dont get out and vote, its all going to go away. They didnt vote for romney. He didnt inspire him. I hope im going to inspire you. Aside from begging people to go caucus, which is what hes doing there and everyone else who is running is doing, do you send hot meals to people . Rent cars . What do you do . Its an extraordinarily laborintensive process. The Trump Campaign has not built that organization to the same depth that obama and clinton both did in 2008 and even ted cruz is following a much more conventional model of organizing through churches, visiting small communities, campaigning everywhere and beat the bushes. With trump, whether this National Media can translate sanders and trump both in iowa are playing with the houses money because they are both in a very strong position in New Hampshire. They dont have to win iowa, either one of them. And certainly theres more risk for the other candidates if they do so than there is downside if they fail to do so. David, before we go, sanders surging. An 18point deficit that is now an 18point lead. Thats a stunning turnaround in one month. What do you make of that . Listen, i look at these polls not so much for the very specific numbers but for the direction and there is no doubt that sanders is on a momentum surge right now. What is so curious, though, is when