Coronavirus deaths. Almost all of these states opening up days, week, some even more than a month faster than what a key model cited by the white house says they should do. It comes though as President Trump says he is optimistic that the country is on the right track. People were thinking in terms of 1. 5 million lives lost to 2. 2. Then hopefully were going to come in below that 100,000 lives lost, which is a horrible number never the less. Of course the president s own forecast had been for 66,000 deaths even just a few days ago. They have now increased that estimate. The optimism hes sharing even as top epidemiologists warning the virus can spread up to two more years infecting up to twothirds of the entire world population. Well speak to two of those experts. But first, erica hill. The cdc is offering new insight as to how the virus can spread as they talk about this crucial time period were in right now. What are you learning . Thats right. The timing of this is not to be ignored in many ways. The report put out today that looked at how this virus spread across the country. Its some things a number of people suspecteded. Travel, large gatherings. But it comes on a day when dr. Fauci is reminding so many states if they leave this guidance in his words, he hopes theyre ready if another surge comes their way. Mardi gras. A medical conference in boston and a large funeral in albany, georgia. All three february events likely helped fuel the spread of coronavirus in the u. S. Those new findings from the cdc con p firming what many have suspected. Researchers also singling out the role of International Travel and certain workplaces like meat packing plants, Nursing Homes and dense urban areas like new york city. A lack of testing also contributed to the spread. The findings come as states move to reopen by the eastbouthough have a 14day decline in the cases. We still have a virus it doesnt care that its may 1st and you still have to take extreme precautions for your safety and for the state of taf those you love. Diners in texas replame claiming a morning routine. Its not just restaurants and retail coming back online today. Beaches, mall, even movie theaters, though at reduced capacity. We really had to think about it and decide are we ready . Do we want to do this . Ohio, louisiana and michigan among the states extending stay at home orders as californias governor says his state is now days, not weeks, away from being able to reopen some shops and restaurants without restrictions. Were getting very close to making really meaningful augmentations to the stay at home order. That announcement coming a as protestors gathered at Huntington Beach calling for an end to the order. At least two cities voting to file an injunction citing the countys low rate. Today, Orange County announced its highest single day increase in cases. In alabama, beachgoers were ready thursday night as restrictions were lifted there. Shoppers in stores adapting in oxford, mississippi. We lower the records down. Fresh concerns about the safety of Meat Processing plants and the nations food supply. Shoppers and military commissaries now limited to purchasing two meat items per visit in anticipation of possible shortages. A new report predicts the virus could be with us for at least another 18 months until 60 to 70 of the population has been infected. I think people need to wrap their head around the fact that this is here to stay for a protacted period of time. Meantime, work continues on a virus with a warning. Just say i have a vaccine throw it into people. Impeachmepeople dont appreciat theyre so attend to getting a vaccine quickly, there could be negative effects of enhancement of infection. As americans wait, theyre also honoring those weve lost. In connecticut, thousands of white flags, one for each person in the state who has dieded as a result of the virus. Pastor Patrick Collins calling the memorial a somber remind er that we are in this together. Here in new york city, Governor Cuomo announcing that theyre partnering with the kate spade text line to offer Emotional Support Services for the governor called front line hello care heroes. Alhe also said hes instructing insurers to waive fees for Mental Health services for front line workers. Thank you very much. And i want to go now to two of the nations leading pandemic experts. Authors of this new report which predicts the pandemic could last up two more years. John berry and mark so thanks very much to both of you. Welcome back. Mark, john, you know you write that this virus will likely keep spreading for 18 months to two years and the forecast you both put in was until 60 to 70 of the population worldwide has it, which i know mark has said is sort of how he defines herd immunity warn this could include another wave in the fall and winter. So could that wave be bigger than what we are seeing right now . It could be. What weve seen so r far has been controlled and lessened significantly by the actions weve taken. If those actions are released and people stop paying attention to social distancing, you need to even if we end lockdown, you still have to continue social distancing and other Public Health measures. It could get considerably worse than what weve seen so far. Pretty sobering warning. The virus has been spreading for about five months. So r far akortding to official number, less than 1 of the worlds population has been infected. Now obviously that number is going to be much higher than that, but its still going to be pretty low as percent of the population. To get to 70 in two years, just does that mean a huge acceleration at some point in your modeling . Well i think the of course you cant get from 5 in a few months to 70 without a lot more cases. Than weve had up until now so that would mean a bigger wave. If we keep it under control with intense control measures, we might not get to 50 or 70 by that time, but well still have teert need for a vaccine or a population thats still susceptible. So mark, i guess that youre saying theres no way we can relent. I know youre not talking about a full lockdown, but you cant relent or else youre to have some of those waves bigger than what weve just had to get anywhere close to those numbers. Right. In the report, we lay out two different scenarios. One is is having a big next wave then that takes much of the suh septemberable population away. At the cost of risking a lot of deaths and a lot of damage to our health care system. Then more managed waves that are not quite so high, but none is less lead to continues cases and continued deaths so the better we control it, the longer we have to live with it and the best case is that we control it long enough to get a vaccine but as dr. Fauci pointed out, thats not a certainty and the timing is not a certainty. No, but john we keep hearing about the weather. The cdc put out the sheet showing it doesnt live as long in humid or hot conditions although it can live hours on some of those surfaces, but that heat and humidity hurts. That study that the president keeps citing Florida Governor ron di san tis cited today to defend his reopening part of the state of florida. Will summer slow down the virus in a dramatic, notable way . Well if the report is is correct, the virus is going to survive less long in heat and humidity, however, given the susceptibility of the population and the trans missablety of f the virus, susceptibility will trump sb seasonality. In 1918, you had a similar situation. The second wave started in july in the middle of switzerland. It ended in january in australia. In the middle of the summer. In australia. And 40 of australians got infected in summer. So when you have a highly susceptible population, that is more important than the seasons and temperature. Were at more than 0i,000 confirmed deaths from coronavirus and obviously we understand u that number is is higher but those are the confirmed drets contributed to the actual virus. The major model the administration keeps updating, a couple of weeks ago, ten days ago, they said it was going to be 66,000 by august 4th. That didnt add up. Theyve moved it up to 72,000 by august and you heard the president trying to now say anything under 100 is a victory. The goal post keeps moving here. So first, the formal forecast of 72,000 deaths by august. Does that seem reasonable to you . That would be an incredible slowdown from where we are right now. No for just that reason. I think these numbers are politics not solid science and we have to look at the trend of the epidemic and what our interventions are. If we loosen up, it will accelerate, not slow down. So i think its just not rational to expect a slowdown when when the trend is is to loosen our restrictions. How much fear do you have about the states opening up . Socially distance, maybe not opening everything. Its a hodgepodge of things but all are doing so before the governments formal recommendations. In many cases, weeks and more than a month before that. Do you see anything out there that makes you deeply concerned right now about these reopenings . Yeah, im very concerned. The logic just doesnt really add up. We now have many cases per day. The growth has slowed down but the number of cases per day is higher than it was when we started the lockdowns. It was smart to start the lockdowns. It cant be start to stop them when we have more cases per day because thats the thing were trying to reduce. Some countries like aus are tri austria have locked down and reduced the number of cases per daedramatically and theyre now thinking about releasing some of the restrictions and that makes sense. One thing ill say is that the parks are a special case. I agree with floridas governor about parks. In the sense that outdoor environments are are really different and you need to control social distancing, but ive been in favor of keeping parks open. All right well people certainly youve got to have some mental support for people in that regard, they need those parks. Next, choosing between economic survival and health. Texas Restaurant Owners tough choice not to open today even though his governor says he can. Plus the fda given the green light to use remdesivir for emergency use so were going to take youness one of the nations leading trials op this drug to see whats happening then why is the white house blocking dr. Fauci from testifying before congress . Incomplete job from an. Why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase sensimist. Nothing stronger. Nothing gentler. Nothing lasts longer. Flonase sensimist. 24 hour nondrowsy allergy relief it means being there for each other. Thats why state farm is announcing the Good NeighborRelief Program we know our customers are driving less, which means fewer accidents. So state farm is returning 2 billion dollars to auto policyholders for the period ending may 31st. And well continue making real time decisions to best serve you our customers. Because now, more than ever, being a Good Neighbor means everything. Like a Good Neighbor, state farm is there. 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Confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. Theyre all possible with a cfp® professional. Find yours at letsmakeaplan. Org. New tonight, choosing between opening up and staying healthy. Texas restaurants even as the state reported it highest oneday death toll yesterday. One Restaurant Owner who is battle lg limb foe masseis he cant open up or stay shut. And mike, look, i really appreciate your time. I mean you know, youre battling cancer yourself. Your grandmother died from coronavirus. What youre dealing with is overwhelming and at the same time, youre dealing with a business you cant keep shut for much longer. How difficult was this decision you just had to make to keep your Dining Room Closed . It wasnt really hard when you put in all the factors especially with what i just went through with losing my grander mother. She taught us about love, light and family. This restaurant that i built here, we made it a Community Restaurant you know and everybody that i like a lot of the guests that i see, theyre almost like family. I see lot of them. I know their kids names. Araya, nick and aidan perez. Theyre almost like family to me. I would feel bad if something happened to them at the same time, i have a financial responsibility to run this business so at the end of the day, the money wasnt worth lieuing lives over. The people that supported me this restaurant, it wasnt worth the danger. I know your restaurant seats about 62 people at a time. We can see how close people normally sit to each other. Always crowdeded. Right now, when you reopen, how many could you seat and is it something that you could even survive with final ly . We could probably seat about 14 people. At a time. Actually no, we cant survive off of that. Simple math. You get 25 of your Restaurant Business but you have to do 100 of the rent. Its not feasible. We have to bring in the equipment. And the products to make sure the safety of the geisses. Their hand sanitizer. Disinfectant chemicals. Stuff that we cant get ahold of right now. I know youve been receiving treatment for your lymphoma, just the incredible process of that is hard to understood state here, but is have you stopped treatment now i understand because you dont want to run the risk of being infected . To get those treatment, you have to go into the hospital so how did you make that decision and how long can you avoid treatment . I know that has to have a will the of fear with that as well. It was a tough decision but at tend of the day, its what was best for my survival rate. Easery go to these places where i could get infected or stay home where i know im safe. I know if the exact timeline is about treatment. Its one of the things that i hope and pray that this one beats out the other and that i can stand not getting treatment and this settles down and i can move forward on with that. Im rooting for you. Youre going to be in our thoughts and i thank you very much for your time. Mike is still awaiting hearing from the federal government on his Small Business loan. He was going to be opening restaurants to houston, denver and seattle but no thats put on hold because of this. Sanjay, you know, this is is, this is a just a dramatic and incredible story here. Its the choice hees given. Hes had to stop his cancer treatments to reopen a business you need to open while youre grieving your grandmother who died of coronavirus. Its incredekred credible to im yet he feels calm and confident in the decision he made it was not the right decision to reopen. Now and i think in material of the reopening, i think theres lots of data to show that these states havent met these criteria to reopen. I dont know people understand the impact it has on certain families. Im sure michael has talk ed about this with his doctors. If you drop, get an infection while youre also dealing with one of these cancers, your likelihood of survival does go down. Having said that, his type of cancer maybe a very treatable cancer. Again, im sure its something to talk b about with his doctors, but one of the things were seeing a lot in the midst of pandemic is that people forgo treatments that are necessary and thats not always the right decision. Again, im not questioning his decision. Just want to make sure the message get iting out there is that if there are things that you need to get treated that even in the midst of the pandemic, theres certain precautions you need to take. You may need to be put into isolation at the hospital, but there are ways to continue to get treatment even in the midst of a pandemic and i would hate to think people would think well, im going to skip chemo because of this. Big hospitals have ways to keep you save and give you that treatment. And cancer because of how it moves, people dont dont want to, you dont want them to forlow geaux these treatments. There was a study that found patients with both cancer and coronavirus have a nearly threefold increase than coronavirus patients without cancer, so but as you point out, it does seem to matter which type of cancer you are battling, right . Thats right. It was primarily plood or lung cancers. Different types of those. Then people with met static cancer, cancer that had spread. Where the increased mortality rate was most pronounced. But its a tight rope because when you get the treatment that can se press your immune system so he may need to be in the hospital longer in ice laigs if hes getting treatment because if he contracts the virus when he leaves, that obviously increases his c