Good afternoon. Welcome. Its a pleasure to see so many people today. Were also joined today by elevision audience via cspan. So lets please take a moment now to silence your mobile devices. There has been a series of events in washington in recent weeks commemorating the tenyear anniversary of the 2006 war between israel and hezbollah. But really, the occasion for todays event is so well timed it could have been because hezbollah this week deployed hundreds of its forces its elite forces to alepo where battles are raging. By all standards, 2006 was a costly war both in terms of casualty from Property Damage especially for lebanon, 120 dead israelis, and nearly 6 billion in destruction in lebanon. Ever since theres been tension but quiet along the border if large part this roletive straint exercise suggests an understanding israel and hezbollah, suggests an understanding among the parties just how damaging the next round would be. By an icy formed today enterprising scholar, focus on hezbollahs capability largely gained during its deployment in syria. These will make the next war even more ferocious and devastating. Hezbollahs deployment in lebanon, in syria, has been costly and controversial. But as we hear about the military dimensions its important to keep in mind the constance. I just returned from lebanon where things are not good. There is is a modicum of security, a collaboration between the state and armed forces and internal Security Forces and hezbollah. But on the political front its a real mess. You have two years with no president , no chance at a new electoral law to bring a new parliament, a failed threeday national dialogue, political paralysis that goes well beyond the garbage crisis, and the news just last week that the leader of the prowest sunni future nt movement in lebanon has lost his company and facing an acute financial crisis. The former head of isf, former meb of the future movement and elections victory in triply running on a highly sectarian platform. Complicating matters the splint rg of the establishment. Lebanon faces ongoing challenge of posting 1. 5 million mostly sunni muslim refugees. The children among are by and large not attending schools and may be susceptible to radicalization or at a minimum the kind of sectarian. Its nothing short in my view of a ticking time bomb. So to discuss hezbollahs new and improved capabilities as well as the dynamic in lebanon, we have the former fellow at the Washington Institute and the author of this newly released institute publicication. He recently joined the Antidefamation League as a terrorism analyst. The freeman visiting fellow in washington specializing in speite politics. She arrived from lebanon and started on monday. Were honored to have her. She previously served as the managing editor of the premier online news site. Those familiar with her reporting recognize her as a journalist of profound courage and insight. Were pleased to welcome her to her first event as a fellow. Now, well start. Thank you. Thanks for the introduction and thank you all for coming. In my first trip to israel starting this research i talked to a friend of mine from the state when i served in the idf. In 2006 we would have said hezbollah will send thousands of fighters to syria, with drones, alongside the russians, people will probably call us crazy. Here we are in 2016 and hezbollah has done all of this. So there was aff bunch of analysis about hezbollahs involvement and the regime, military experience, the losses of many fighters, and injured. But when i read this i sort of felt that it didnt go too much in depth. What is the military experience . What is happening in lebanon at the same time . So that was the starting point of my research. Now, lets take a step back for a minute. When you talk in israel about hezbollah and the president of syria people will call it their eastern command. Hezbollah is in lebanon. So their contingency is the eastern command. We have between 5,000 and 8,000 fighters at any given time in syria. They are fighting on many fronts. Theyre also training a lot of shia militias. Theyre also securing important sights. Important, they have establishments in syria, weapons storgeses, training camps. Theyre doing that. Now we have various types of fighters. People talk like its all the same fighters, they have the same capability but thats not true. We have the special forces. Thats a unit established after the 2006 war. Were talking about a special forces. Their training takes around a yearandahalf. Snipers, ieds, the elite forces. Then the standing forces, a Crucial Point to make. When we talk about hezbollah fighters in syria, were talking about all of hezbollah fighters in syria. Every fighter was in syria at some point during the last five or six years because theyre rotating in and out. Then we have parttime fighters. Which were talking about on a day to day people affiliated, theyre not fighters but 15 ys of the year theyre serving on the battlefront. Then we have more fighters. They need more and more fighters. So they fast tracked a lot of the training many fighters are just trained 60 to 90 days and then shipped into syria. And its important to know that we have their commission are committed but some are rotating in and out. This is from a piece from one of the hezbollah fighters. It sort of enin passes what theyre doing in syria. They lead military operations. Do the bulk of the battle. They tell us about the area, topography and people that live there. They also follow hezbollahs orders. Hezbollah is by no mean the father in syria. They are the commanders leading battles. Sometimes they lead syrian soldiers, militia, hezbollah are the elite force. So how has this changed hezbollah. Lets look first at the strategy. If youre going to talk to a lot of ideas folks in israel, the strategy they used was not losing. Why . Because hezbollah knows that it cant defeat the idea in one battle. Hezbollah has very significant capability bus were talking about the idea, which is advanced capabilities and if theres going to be an allout war. So hezbollah just wanted to show that they can endure a war against the ideas. So what were the pillars of this strategy of not losing . Prolong the fight as much as possible to show. Then we have maintaining home front attrition. And the maneuvers in South Lebanon. That was in 2006. Hezbollah worked on the strategy after the second lebanon war. Piece was written that said, im not so sure that the strategy of not losing remains in hezbollah today. Why not . Prolonging the fight doesnt work any more. Theyre knee deep in syria. They dont want to divide the forces. They have greater accountability to the lebanese people. And they dont want to waste ll of their strategic weapons. 100,000, 150,000. This is an iranian project. They put a lot of effort to put these weapons in lebanon. They just want to have a deterrent against a strike in iran or any other operations. After the 2006 war they were a little annoyed, you just wasted all these missiles that didnt relate to us. So they want to ensure they dont use all the arsenal. What is the bottom line . Hezbollah should want to shorten the war. How . You go on the offensive. You have units that go into the north of israel, take ahold of different villages in the north. Use a lot of rockets to interrupt with the idea of movement and try to influence Decision Makers to stop the war as soon as possible. So the first one is more defensive and the second is more offensive. I tried to look how the experience pushes them one way or tortsdze. What has changed in syria . Not losing strategy. If im a fighter what is my role . Im defending my village. Hezbollah used small teams between 1015 people using antitank missiles, ieds. But the purpose was to defend their own villages. And in syria, they see a village, way i dont need to defend, i need to conquer. T means they need to seige it, using tactics. Not teams of 1015. Were talking about hundreds of fighters. If im a hezbollah fighter, some this was the first time they did an operation. If im not used to deevensding my village, you change the paradigm of how do i see the battle. The second thing is the russian factor. In september 2015, russia became a big part of the Syrian Civil War and it started with different lements on the grouped. Russia had presence on the ground but most of their soldier are hezbollah, syrian militia and Syrian Regime. So you had different battles. Right now in alepo, other villages that hezbollah was on the ground in the back there was russian artillery, russian air force. When we talk about that kind of operation you need close coordination between the different parties. That means that hezbollah was exposed, one of its partners, to russian immigrantry planning. So talking about an event they have capability soss it was the first time hezbollah saw how to design a military content. But what is russia doing today in syria . The other thing is sort of a reality check. Hezbollah is very has advanced capability bus they also saw how russia operates in syria. They saw their warfare, intelligence capabilities. And suddenly i see, if they have that, the idea they have the same if not better. Were in a problem right now. So maybe we should stick to our defensive strategy. On the other hand, they also saw how the russians still dont have a decisive victory. Russia still didnt take all the leadership of the rebels, they didnt target all the weapons storges they have there. So hezbollah is able to witness there are some blind spots. And they can use it for their advantage afterwards in the fight against israel. Regardless of which side hezbollah is going to choose, if its defensive or offensive, which i believe it will take time to implement because hezbollah is still in syria. In order to develop a strategy will take a lot of time. But there are military tactics that got a lot better. First increase effectiveness on its drone fleet. We know in the early 2000 that hezbollah has drones. We saw them in 2004 reconsense drones we saw in 2006 hezbollah used drones to target israel. Then we saw in 2012 and 2015 sending ents reconsense drones. They use it for conson sans. We saw footage that hezbollah put on line theyre using a drone with Cluster Munition to target the rebels. This is the first time theyre doing it in syria. Now theyre not only watching their own drone operations. Theyre watching the iranian drone operations, the syrian drone operations. If im a drone operater im thinking, now i know the systems better, the optics better, the communications better. This sort of makes them think about Different Missions being more effective against israel. And hezbollah has a lot of investment in their drone fleet recently. The second thing i want to touch on is the short range rocket threats. We talk a lot about hezbollahs rocket arsenal, long range, very accurate. But theres one thing that the conversation misses from time to time and thats the shortrange rocket. In syria we saw them using a short range rocket with a very heavy pay load between 500 kilos to one ton which can overwhelm enemy defenses, it can terrorize the population. And it doesnt cost that much. Even if the rocket is not that accurate, if you use it in a certain amount it can overwhelm syrias north, folks on the border. They say were really concerned about that. The second thing to help is the fact that they saw what happened in protective edge in the summer of 2014. Most of the casualties hamas inflicted on israel using mortars and rockets were not the long range one. The long range one iron dome can take. But they thought maybe we should focus on this. So thats something to keep in mind. Want to talk about for a lack of time we will move to hezbollahs regiment visavis israel. I heard a lot of people in israel that say, hezbollah right now is focused on syria we dont need to worry too much. Which is true. Hezbollah on the basic level doesnt want a war right now. But it doesnt mean that they cant manage one. When we talk about the number of fighters, hezbollah still has thousands of fighters in South Lebanon. Most assessments talk about hezbollahs fighters. If you take into account the number of deaths, the number of injured men, the number of fighters in syria, even if all of them are sending forces, hezbollah still has a little bit more than 6,000 fighters very capable in South Lebanon. When a war starts, they will be able to stop maybe the first wave then all the fighters from syria are going to come to lebanon to fight against israel. The other is training to examine the readiness. Before the involvement they trained in lebanon. Then they went to iran. Why . Because there are things, if you want to fire a rocket or missile, you cant do it in lebanon because lebanon is going to say what are you doing, second, israel will be able to see it better lets say. So that stopped after the involvement in syria but they kept training in lebanon. Every time they wanted to fire something they go to syria to fire on the rebels or other organizations. Syrias Experiment Lab of hezbollah. You have attacks you want to examine . Go to syria. If you want to fire or test weapons go to syria. No one would mind, no one knows what hezbollah is doing there. And then the idea of reinforcement question mark one of the most important things that i think is happening right now in syria is the fact that the shia acts as one force. Hezbollah before the involvement trained Different Missions in iraq. But right now when you fight together, when you bleed together, theres a relationship that cant be broken. So im thinking if im a hezbollah nighter and i have a friend from shia militia in iraq and my friend sees me getting hammered thinking wait why are we helping hezbollah . So there is a chance they get reinforcement from different shia militias. If theyre going to say just secure our side in syria that will allow us to send more fighters. Thats Something Else to keep in mind. So that was sorted of the military lesson, the military offensive. Now i want to talk about the Shia Community supporting lebanon. Talk about communities supporting lebanon. I talked to many lebanese about that aspect. No doubt that the Shia Community in lebanon to support the hezbollah which was after 2006 war, if you would have asked people mostly if youre shia of course look at them they enjoy the fight. But something happened with syrian involvement. Were talking about significant losses among the Shia Community. 1600 casualties, 5,000 injured, and i heard one time only 60 of the losses are actually from South Lebanon which South Lebanon is one of the most important strongholds of hezbollah. That means that most of the people in South Lebanon you know someone who died, who was injured in the war. That creates a lot of agony for the community. Suddenly people lose their providers, they lose their father figure, brothers. It creates a lot of pressure inside the community. Also some financial constraints. The salary cost and reduction of social services for a lot of shia that is important. And when they see hezbollah spend so much money, wait a minute, were still here. Why are you not helping us . But hezbollah was able to maintain significant support. How did they do it . Rst, to frame a war as necessary. Every time they speak he hammers this message. We night to fight alnusra. If we dont do it lebanon is going to be flush with terrorists. A lot of people believe, i think in 2015 and 2016 that talked about the fact that theyre going to ask lebanese, most would say the number one threat to the country are the extremism. So hezbollah is able to sort of do that. Second, hezbollah still takes care of its core base of support. When im talking about that im talking about the fighters, their families. They still get their salaries, social services. Maybe there are other people but if you are a fighter of hezbollah you can count on hezbollah to take care of you. The third is theres just no alternative. You are a shia in lebanon today, beyond hezbollah there are smaller organizations that claim to represent the community but they dont pay salaries, dont get social services. If you are a shia in lebanon today, even if partially still does it is hezbollah. Talking about a country that the Economic Situation doesnt allow you to quit your job and look for another one. So you are going to fight and support the organization. After all that when we talk about important take aways from all the syrian involvement beyond the tactics and the Strategic Military achievements you need to remember hezbollah remains willing and able to fight in syria. You saw in 2012, 2013, 2014, theyre in a quagmire. Are they going to retreat . They lost 20, 30, 40 fighters in that battle. This is an existential battle. They have military bases. For them to lose a lot of their military capabilities and their resisance. Second, hezbollah places have been strengthened. If you would have asked before the syrian involvement, iraq, iran, syria, hezbollah, other organizations in the region part of this, but soaria was very powerful back then syria was very powerful back then. They supported hezbollah, gives them weapons. Today i would put hezbollah above syria. One day when the Syrian Civil War is going to be over, hopefully very soon but probably not, iran and the Syrian Regime is going to remember that hezbollah brought their fighters to syria. Theyre going to remember that hezbollah didnt put their neck on the line for them. Iran at first didnt send fighters. They would tell hezbollah to send a few more. Hezbollah is the only one who putt their neck on the line. So both are going to remember that. Third, many other organizations in the middle east will receive better training. Even before the involvement, hezbollah has been a great trainer for many terrorist organizations in the region, for militias in iraq, the hutesdzies, they see what theyre doing. Jihad islamist a lot of organizations. They get training. So both israel and the u. S. To see what hezbollah is learning in syria, its a great lesson for the future because well probably see in a few years them doing the same thing or hamas or other terrorist organizations. Thank you. Thank you. [applause] thank you for this very interesting present yafplgtse and david thank you for your kind welcome. Im i would like to talk about the thre