It is not for some foundation with a bunch of old white guys to tell you what you should or should not do with your body, especially when they do not support agencies like casa. Chair powell good afternoon. Before discussing todays meeting, let me comment briefly on recent development in the Banking Sector. Conditions in that sector have broadly improved since early march and the u. S. Banking system is sound and resilient. We will continue to monitor conditions in the sector. We are committed to learning the right lessons from this episode and will work to prevent events like these from happening again. The first step in that process, last week, we released vice chair for supervision barrs review of Silicon Valley bank. The findings underscore the need to address our rules and supervisory practices to make for a stronger and more resilient Banking System and im confident we will do so. From the perspective of Monetary Policy, our focus remains on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. My colleagues and i understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor Market Conditions that benefit all. The fomc raised its policy Interest Rate by. 25 . Since early last year, we have raised Interest Rates by a total of five point of five Percentage Points. We are also continuing to reduce our securities holdings, looking ahead. We will take a data dependent approach to determine the extent to which additional policy may be appropriate. I will have more to say after briefly reviewing economic developments. The u. S. Economy slowed significantly last year with real gdp rising at a below trend pace of 0. 9 . The pace of Economic Growth in the First Quarter of this year continued to be modest at 1. 1 despite a pickup in consumer spending. Activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher Interest Rates at a slower output growth also appeared to be weighing on business fixed investment. The labor market remains tight. Over the first three months of the year, job gains averaged 345,000 jobs per month. The Unemployment Rate remained very low in march at 3. 5 . Even so, there are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming back into balance. The Labor Force Participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals 25 to 54 years. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing and Job Vacancies have declined so far this year. Overall, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers. Inflation remains well above our longer on goal of 2 . Over the twelvemonth sending in march, total pc prices rose 4. 2 , excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Inflation has moderated someone since the middle of last year moderated somewhat since the middle of last year yet inflation continues to run high and getting back down to 2 has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longterm expectations remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets. The feds Monetary Policy actions are guided by our mandate to provide to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. My colleagues and i are acutely aware that high inflation poses significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher cost of essentials like food, housing and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 objective. At todays meeting, the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by. 25 , bringing it to 5. 25 , and are continuing the process of reducing our securities holdings. With todays action, we have raised Interest Rates by five Percentage Points in the little more than the year. We are seeing the effects of our policy tightening ondemand in the most Interest Rate sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing investment. It will take time for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In addition, the economy is likely to face further headwinds from tighter Credit Conditions. Credit conditions had already been tightening over the past year or so in response to our policy actions and the softer economic outlook. The strains that emerged in the Banking Sector in early march appear to be resulting in even tighter Credit Conditions for households and businesses. In turn, these tighter conditions are likely to weigh on Economic Activity and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. In light of these uncertain headwinds, along with Monetary Policy restraint, our future policy actions will depend on how events unfold. Determining the extent to which additional policy firming will be needed, we will take into account the accumulative tightening of Monetary Policy, the way in which this affects Economic Activity and inflation, and economics. We will make that determination meeting by meeting based on the totality of incoming data and implications for Economic Activity in inflation and we are prepared to do more if greater Monetary Policy restraint is warranted. We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 goal and to keep our longerterm Inflation Expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor Market Conditions, restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions. Gina, new york times. I wonder if you could tell us whether we should read the Statement Today as a suggestion that the committee is prepared to pause Interest Rate increases in june and i also wonder if the fed staff has revised their forecast for a mild recession from the march minutes, and if so, what a recession like what they are envisioning would look and feel like when it comes to the Unemployment Rate. Chair powell taking your question, today, our decision was to raise the fed funds rate by. 25 . A decision on a pause was not made today. You will have noticed that, in the statement for march, we had a sentence that said the committee anticipates some additional policy firming may be appropriate. That sentence is not in the statement anymore. We took that out. We said instead that in determining the extent to which additional firming may be appropriate to get to 2 inflation, we will take into account other factors. We are no longer saying we anticipate. So we will be driven by incoming data meeting by meeting and will address that at the june meeting. So the staffs forecast. Let me say start by saying that that is not my own most likely case, which is that the economy will continue to grow at a modest rate this year. Different people on the committee have different forecasts. That is my own assessment of the most likely path. The staff produces its own forecasts independent of the participants, which include the governors and reserve Bank President s, and we think this is a healthy thing, that the staff is writing down what they think. They are not especially influenced by what the governors think and vice versa. The governors are not taking with the staff says and writing that down. So it is actually good that the staff and individual participants can have different perspectives. So broadly the forecast was for a mild recession. By that, i would characterize it as one in which the rise in unemployment is smaller than has been typical in modern era recessions. I would not want to characterize the staffs forecast for this meeting. We will leave that to the minutes, but broadly similar to that. Reporter thank you, chair powell. Washington post. I am wondering if you can talk about the account of possible effects of a debt limit standoff. Do you see any economic effects of getting close to a default and what that would look like . Chair powell i would not want to speculate but i will say this. These are fiscal policy matters, for starters, and therefore congress and the administration and they are therefore for congress and the elected administration to deal with. It is essential to debt ceiling be raised in a timely way so the government can pay its bills when they are due. A failure to do that would be unprecedented. We would be in uncharted territory and the consequences to the economy would be highly uncertain and could be quite a verse. I will leave it there. We did not give advice to either side. We would just point out that it is very important this be done. The other point i will make about that, though, is that no one should assume that the fed can protect the economy from the potential short and longterm effects of a failure to pay our bills on time. We it would be so uncertain that it is important that we never get to a place where we are talking about or even having a situation where the u. S. Government is not paying its bills. Reporter was discussion around the uncertainty of a possible standoff affecting that Monetary Policy decision . Chair powell i would not say that it did. We talk a lot about risks to the outlook and that came up. A number of people did raise that as a risk. I would not say it was important in todays Monetary Policy decision. Reporter mr. Chairman cnbc. Can you tell us what the Federal Reserve board did in the wake of the february presentation, where you informed that Silicon Valley bank and others work experiencing others were experiencing Interest Rate risks and can you tell us what you have done in the wake of recent Bank Failures to make sure that banks are currently appropriately managing Interest Rate risks . Part three but it is all the same question, do you think the separation principle that Monetary Policy and supervision can be handled with different tools . Chair powell i have gone back and looked at it carefully. It was a general presentation. It was an informational briefing of the whole board. All members were there. It was about Interest Rate risks in the banks. Lots of data. There was one page on Silicon Valley bank, which talked about the amount of losses they are they had in their portfolio. There was nothing in it, that i recall anyway, about the risk of a bank run. The takeaway was they were going to do an assessment, a horizontal assessment of banks. It was not it was not presented as an urgent or alarming situation. It was presented as an informational, nondecisional thing, and i thought it was a good presentation and i do remember it. In terms of what we are doing, course, banks themselves, many banks, are attending to liquidity and taking opportunity now, since the events of early march, to build liquidity. The separation principle. Like many things, it is very useful, but, you know, ultimately has its limits. In this particular case, we have found that the Monetary Policy tools and Financial Stability tools are not in conflict. They are working well together. We have used their Financial Stability tools to support banks through our lending facilities and at the same time have been able to use our Monetary Policy tools to foster maximum employment and price stability. Reporter i do not mean to be argumentative, but the staff report said svb presented a significant Interest Rate risk and banks with unrealized losses face a significant safety and soundness risk. Why was that not alarming . Chair powell i did not say it was not alarming. It was. They pointed out something they were working on. They mentioned they had taken regulatory actions in the form of matters requiring attention. It was to say, yes, this is a bank and there are other banks experiencing these things and we are on the case. Reporter hi, chair powell. With the recent bank turmoil, we have seen multiple banks by other banks, and i was curious whether you think further consolidation in the Banking Sector would increase or decrease Financial Stability and whether you have any concerns about the biggest bank in the u. S. Getting even larger biggest banks in the u. S. Getting even larger. Chair powell i do not have an agenda to further consolidate banks. Consolidation has been a factor in the u. S. Banking industry since interstate banking and even before, more than 30 years. When i started, there were 13,000 banks and now there are 4000 and change. I personally have long felt that having small, medium and large sized banks is a great part of our making system. The Community Banks serve particular customers very well. Regional banks serve very important purposes. And the various kinds of large banks do as well. So it is healthy to have a range of different kinds of banks doing different things. I think thats a positive thing. Is it a financial i would just say, in terms of j. P. Morgan buying First Republic, the fdic really runs the process of closing and selling a closed bank completely. That is their role so i dont have a comment on that process. Theres an exception to the deposit cap for failing banks, so it was legitimate. The fbi see i believe is bound by the law to take the bid the fdic i believe is bound by the law to take the bid that is the least cost. I think its probably a good policy that we do not want the largest banks doing big acquisitions. That is the policy. But this is an exception for a failing bank and i think its a good outcome for the Banking System. It also would have been a good outcome for the Banking System at one of the regional banks. That could have been the outcome but ultimately we have to follow the law in our agencies and the law as it goes to the least cost bit. Reporter thank you. Colby with the financial times. At the march meeting, you mentioned that the tightening of Credit Conditions from the recent bank stress could be equal to one or two more rate increases, so given developments since then, how has your estimate changed . Chair powell i followed that up by saying it is quite impossible to have a precise estimate or words to that effect, but that is the idea. We have been raising Interest Rates and that raises the price of credit and that restricts credit in the economy working through the price mechanism, and when banks raise their credit standards, that can make credit tighter in a broadly similar way. It is not possible to make a clean translation between one and the other, although firms are trying that and we are trying, but ultimately, we have to be honest and humble about our ability to make a precise assessment. It does complicate the task of creating a sufficiently restrictive stance, but conceptually, Interest Rates, and principal, we think we will not have to raise rates quite as high. The extent of that is so hard to predict because we dont how persistent these effects will be, how large they will be and how long that will take to be transmitted, but that is something we will be watching carefully. Reporter to follow up, what does it suggest about the scope for the committee to pause rate increases perhaps as early as next month even if the data remains strong if it is having some kind of substitute affect . Chair powell this is something we have to factor in. I guess i would say it this way. The assessment of the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate will be an ongoing one, meeting by meeting, and we will be looking at the factors i mentioned listed in the statement, the obvious factors. That is the way we will be thinking about it. And that is really all we can do. It does complicate. We have a broad understanding of Monetary Policy. Credit tightening is a different thing. Theres a lot of literature on that but translating it into rate hikes is uncertain. Nonetheless, we will be able to see whats happening with Credit Conditions, with lending. We get a lot of data on