The fifth republic, the two mainstream parties are one theed after round socialist and the conservative will face offrs on may 7 for the second round. We thought there might be three names and now we have two provided by our partner. Lets take a look at how the other candidates fared. You can certainly see an extremely tight race. Thats incredible. Said, mark, this is historic. Yes, as i just said, no one would have said that Emmanuel Macron would be in the lead. Marine le pen was said to be ahead in all the polls. This pushes her through to the second round. Facing off against and the second round, all the polls have shown that Emmanuel Macron would win and become frances next president and there is two weeks of campaigning to go. If so, Emmanuel Macron would young president of france. Obviously, this is a whole new Campaign Starting today. And what a shakeup. Do we have the images we can pull up of the headquarters . We have some reaction to this news. There we have Emmanuel Macron supporters and they are ecstatic that their candidate has pulled off something that has never been seen before in france. It cannot be understated, the fact that this 39yearold has pulled off this victory and he does not belong to a political party. He started his own movement a year ago and has been able to galvanize support and that is what we see their. He came out on top. I dont know if we can pull up the images we have from northern france where weve got Marine Le Pens headquarters but im sure the images must be similar. I want to pull in a lexus puna who has joined us here. What is your take on what weve just seen happen . Its historic because the two main parties are out. Emmanuel macron has no party or is in the process of having a party. It reflects the populist movement we see in europe. Clearly, Emmanuel Macron is in front and what will happen apart from the campaign and in the willf is the big parties have to think ahead how they recompose and what will be next. A lot of people will join either or. Marine le pen might be the new right and Emmanuel Macron might be the hope for the other side so we will wait and see. We have been criticizing the polling institute. They predicted macron would beat le pen but this is not an exit poll. It was a close election. 19. 5 and 19. 5 is exactly what was predicted for the thirdplace candidates. That is extraordinary. They will be at least happy. The other thing that is noticeable is this is a clear shift to the right in france. Disregarding the smaller for thees, 19. 5 leftwing candidate and six point something, that makes up about 25 of the electorate. Macron has positioned himself in the middle and the right is trying to present him as someone not in the middle but more to the left. He is a centrist candidate more or less and that means the centrist candidate, the mainstream right candidate, the far right candidate collected a huge majority of the vote. Before we go into the second round, the question will be whether to take a leap into the unknown with Marine Le Pen because a lot of the next round will be about europe and she wants a referendum on leaving the european union. She wants a referendum on leaving the euro. She wants to leave nato. These are big decisions. Macron will come to present the status quo. Pen will represent what she has always represented and perhaps french voters will feel her time is right. It looks like nothing can be productive but it looks like macron will probably win. None of the candidates from the traditional parties, are we seeing the french Political Landscape and things shifting completely and starting anew . This is the fifth republic and has elements. Is this an indication of that . This is the collapse of the two mainstream parties. Earliert we were making of party partis of the crisis of the regime . It makes a very interesting deliberation. The immediate question now is what happens in the main parties . They are going to tear themselves apart. Somethinglly tells us about what happens in the future because, in a sense, the fifth republic, if you like, only properly functions if you have a highly personalized president and so on but that president has a parliamentary majority and that will create enormous problems. The point is that macron does not even have a party much less the majority in parliament. Two mps. Claire is at the macron rally. There is a bunch of people behind me who are absolutely ecstatic. They know there is a good chance that Emmanuel Macron will be the next president of france. Its not a done deal with two more weeks of campaigning. They are confident but there is one thing they need to think about. Confident but the parliamentary Elections Come up in june. Macron does not have his own party. s party has had 14,000 people say theresountry lots of interest but they are newcomers to politics. Emmanuel macron is a happy, confident man tonight. But even if it becomes the next president of france, he will have to think a parliamentary elections in june. Thank you, some reactions are coming from french politicians. The french Prime Minister says the result is an earthquake for us. Party hasader of the already called for a vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron in the second round. In the meantime, lets cross to northern france. The National Front headquarters, i imagine captain that olson, the mood is rather festive. Maybe Marine Le Pen was hoping that she would come out first. Atabsolutely, when we look polling for this election, Marine Le Pen was the front runner, well above 25 which is a higher score than she ended up getting on the provisional results. Ofind me, there is a lot booing going on because the people who gathered for this election are watching french tv where they saw the announcement of the first round provisional results. The socialist Party Candidate is presently speaking. The people have been booing anyone not from the National Front. They also booed when Emmanuel Macrons headquarters were shown. At the exact moment when we found out the provisional results, there was a real chantingg of and singing and people said we are going to win. Its a mitigated jubilant atmosphere but we will have to wait and see what Marine Le Pen has to say when she turns up to speak to her supporters below. We have some reaction coming into her victory in second place. This will cause chaos. What she has to offer will come under tight scrutiny. Indeed, yes. It will be an interesting debate between the two rounds. Emmanuel macron is very much the centrist candidate. Marine le pen has been honing her far right message for quite a few years and working on the heartland issues like security, immigration, fighting terrorism. Quite a few of her supporters are here this evening and those are the issues they keep mentioning timing time again. Time and time again. They want france to close it orders to stop militants from coming in from Foreign Countries and bringing in arms. Many people want to see friends leave the european union. Marine le pen has promised at least a negotiation with the european union. Then she wants a referendum for the ref people for the french people. The has been growing antieuropean sentiment in france ever since the financial crisis of 20072008 and the problem the Euro Currency has had. We have to cut you off because the socialist candidate is speaking right now. 9spewaking french we have to defeat the National Front and the right. By voting for Emmanuel Macron was not entitled to represent us, its a clear distinction between a political adversary and an enemy of the republic. This is no time for levity. Its no time for levity. The struggle goes on. After the second round of and thenial elections the legislative elections and hopefully, thinking of all those who voted, i will never leave you, i will never abandon you. You represent the hope of the left and its not only the geopolitical message but our shared thoughts because i know where i come from and why. I struggled. I will always continue speaking to the intelligence of the great french people. Therefore, long live the republic and tomorrow, long live the left. Thank you. Have the socialist candidate addressing his supporters. Its a bit of a tough pill for him to swallow. These are estimates that have been taken on the initial vote tallies. They have given him just over 6 . A historics is defeat and he admitted it and took responsibly for it. Interestingly, he called upon his supporters to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round and adds we have seen a number of conservatives, politicians also calling for a vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron. National front officials are calling on more votes for Marine Le Pen including coming from s own camp and we are seeing things shifting to prepare for the second round. I want to ask, you are hoping the french would vote the right way just before 8 00. Are you satisfied . Lets say that i am against populism. At the end of the day, what im not happy with is this will be a default victory. For marineve taken le pen to get 34 votes on a standalone in the first round to filling the position and over 37 rate to hav been a legitimate candidate in the second round. The way it plays out in the first and second round, i think it becomes a default victory and everyone will route behind one or the other because theres only one sensible choice, may be appropriate voting. Were note time, voting for someone we necessarily believe in or know what they will do. That is where my disappointment comes in. We are saying the site big shakeup considering the traditional parties are not there. Macron is thed, only one centered. He has a slightly different policy than hollande. Were not sure what that policy is so we will have to see how it goes. What we have is he is not part of the institution of a newer candidate. Hopefully, he will take it as an opportunity to break down some of the oldfashioned mold we have had. I think its positive for the institution. Working for many years behind the scenes. See, this is a holdup. Its all about the branding culture and how it works. Macroncampaign, emmanuel was the old guru. What is the program . What is the message . The program came one month before the first round. People vote because there is something maybe its new or its not but if you look at his career and what he is proposing, its hollande and he is low in public opinion. You have to ask about the psychology of the french people. Would you vote for a guy its something that was ok for five years but if you want change, maybe you should choose you should not choose macron. its part of the populist movement we see all over the world. Estimatender that the puts macron with 23. 7 . Has 21. 7 soy 2 difference between the candidates. That othere to add institutes put them tied at 23 . That does not change the fact of a both qualify for round tube i just want to add this as an element of information. That being said, Marine Le Pen was hoping for more. Yes, she was. I would like to come back to the oint that i am more positive or i read the macron victory perhaps in a more positive light than you do. Say sense, that is not to that in part you are right but there are other factors involved. I think it is probably unfair to say that macron is hollandes successor. And annoyed an awful lot of people when he did what he did when he resigned from the government and so on. I also think the initial surge of his popularity was about doing something modern and different to break the molds. I think to a certain extent, the fuzziness over his program was that he got slightly trapped. Really come out with a program because he was standing on a side road. He was neither left nor right. Program to develop a that did not see him tilt too far in one direction or the other. To a certain extent, its true that there have been a series of ambiguities and ambivalence about what exactly is his program. Now its time to make your mind up. He has to come out with a program but the question is, that he was held in a sense by his position between right and left. He came out with some leftwing things and some rightwing that what i suspect he wants to do is more thorough modernization, then we see at the moment. I think the campaign and where his position was a mac Campaign Stop him from doing it. Hopefully, we will now see it. I think he comes across as someone who tries very hard to please everyone. It worked. The people on the left, a lot of them like him dislike him intensely and the people in the right find him far too wishywashy. He tries to please everyone and in some ways pleases no one but has please enough people to do it fairly well. We will pause for a minute and cross back to claire with thewho is Emmanuel Macron supporters. What do you have for us . I am with the campaigner and advisor and he is an american in paris. How do you feel . Its overwhelming. I worked on 45 campaigns in my life and this might be the most Exciting Campaign i have ever been a part of. Why is that . Thatu have for candidates were almost completely tied in the pull within a margin of error. The top two candidates were not part of a traditional political party. This was by far the most exciting election i have ever been a part of and were just going started. Two weeks and sell the second round on may 7, whats next . We have an army of volunteers who have been trained to go door to door and convince voters who are hesitating whether to vote or who to vote for to convince them with sincerity and information and humanity to vote for a france thats not close, a france that is democratic, a france that is open to the world and i think macron will win if we keep mobilizing. About thenot worried parliamentary election in june . Challenge that you will see a tectonic plate of all the parties shifting. 250,000 members who are ready to make history and forge New Territories with new potential candidates. I think we will compete very strongly. Thank you very much. See, very optimistic and positive about the next step for Emmanuel Macron. Thank you, some inspiration from the obama campaign. How much truth is there in this . French politics are different from american politics but does grassroots movement, this mobilizing has worked. This is not the only reason why Emmanuel Macron made it. It clearly paid a part it clearly played a part. He had a conversation with barack obama last week. There were pictures put out about that. I wonder if obama gave him tips about getting the vote out. Macron, afeared that large majority of his supporters are young people. People wondered if they would actually go out and vote and clearly they have. The other interesting thing about macron is he is usually popular among french expats who have voted in large numbers. Is a normal is a popular he is enormously popular in london and new york. Is someone who is young and can get business going in france and that has been a normal sleep about 2 , and with these estimates, it has an impact. Quick question when you see things now, what does le pen forward do two move forward . , there will not be a question of who you vote for. Will go further in the process of promising more by bordersout and closing and putting security and religion back on the table, which is a win for macron. Ext very popular for the pats. It is about randy. Thatlook at le pen will work for voters. This is one of her disadvantages, is that if she pushes for this, she starts diminishing the references to the e. U. And the euro, and given the idea that maybe these well not. The problem is she will be forced into this by the most proeuropean candidates, which will be a disadvantage because she will have to push for something that the french in their majority are not favor of. We have seen a number of leading conservative politicians landing their support for Emmanuel Macron, but we have seen the socialist Prime Minister call for socialist voters to support emmanuel , the socialist candidate, as did one minister close to the current president. To voteaid we need , but this gives a ready argument that the whole system is against me. Emmanuel macron is the embodiment of the elites, and french voters should not be disabused by this idea that she is an outsider. I could not agree more. Landemes from the hol administration, and he is the institution. He is the representation. One thing that is interesting to look at is what is happening on social media, because a lot of the mobilization we saw came from the young people. I plugged into what was happening with some analysis, looking at what the younger people are doing and how engaged were they with what was being said. Larger audience, but a far greater engaged audience, which is a signal of engagement. Whereas macron, on the list of not number use, is one in any of them. You have half the followers on twitter and lower types of engagement. He is what . Right now he is not le pen and we will again again be voting for not somebody. Butke a little bit of this, you have to be more strategic about how you will vote. It is not like i love this person. , ais a little bit of that little bit of that. And that is where we will end up with. What is interesting is the fact that we have seen Emmanuel Macron try to distance himself, and we have seen attempts in the candidate got 18 put their we a new experience. Everyone is criticizing him. If there is no big accident, he is frances next president. Some would suggest that. That is pretty much all Marine Le Pen can pick up in terms of vote. And he will also go on to support macron. The huge majority will go to macron. It would look unlikely that she will win. Perhapsshe be able to look at the fact that how will he go about governi