I didnt believe the data. The cant explain it to client, i gotta, you know, if not a rational explanation ive got to redo it, happening. Whats so numbers change for no apparent reason, its probably not right. Hope if there are any cable lookers watching this, when theres a poll that shows from everyid it other poll, rather than considering it hot news laughter youre probably doing your viewers a disservice. Difference between Campaign Polls and almost all done publicly are and for the newspapers. Polls are bone afiled polls where we are sampling voted inat we know either 2010 or 2006. With likely voters and thats true of every campaign, and that means the campaigns are dealing with polls more real and not subject to throw one thing out, and if either of you want to respond, but you can say this yourselves because youll sound so self serving, but one of the in a lot ofear these poll aggregators and is that independent polls are more reliable than by partisan organizations. Thethe idea is that partisan sponsored polls are somehow really really biased as a campaign would spend a whole lot of money on getting were wrong would be a good idea. And i think what a lot of peep is that if stan does a poll with really lousy numbers the odd thing, youre ever going to hear those are almost nonexistent. Assessmentting this this is a mythology that built up that the academics to take intou have modeling. The democracy core, we release every poll and we advance were releasing it so we dont have the option of getting a result speak like. Ill just about, in iowa, i totally trust harstead, i think hes right close. He race being very but theyre not going to release the polls. Variations, some of their other states probably had a poll where the democrats well that they didnt release. So you have to be careful on a bias. Heres weve done 1400 polls this year. 1400. We released, what, 20, maybe. Your party is having a good year. Were doing a ton of surveys. We dont want to release the yet were graded, we got c pluses. Like 20 polls. Me. Like youre kidding it ridiculous. But take it with a grain of salt. The Grimes Campaign released done over iurvey think eight days in the field. Andting on friday night ending on saturday. That is they are theying 1800 days, and cherry picked those days because those were the very days that two points. S up by if they had done it a day later, it wasarlier, then different. They cherry picked salt. T with a grain of the way it works. But take that stuff with a grain of salt. When you look at some of these showed, when they start going to likely voter samples, after labor day, and get reallynumbers crazy, its because, you know what, theyre not doing it right. Its flawed. Its just flawed. So take it with a grain of salt. Where are the mics . Over tois, give one jeff. He gave me a plug with any news letter 30 years ago, im not all. D at michael labelle. Just one comment and then a question. The comment is about georgia, and i think neil said that the settled might not be until december. Is that possible, going to january . Yeah, i mean i keep focusing on louisiana in december, but provision inrunup georgia that pushes it to the january 6. Its november 4, december 6 january 6 for georgia. Its certain that louisiana runoff. Its entirely possible could be georgia as well. Do to, ifes that kansas. Ets elect in he doesnt know which way to go. Getuntil he decides he can any committee assignments. Exactly. Question. T was not my sorry, it was interesting. Listen tolook, if i everything thats been said, this is not going to be a wave election. Are very, very close. And if you look forward to 2016, take away right now sincems of strategizing, its not a wave with the parti in the next two years, given the fact that the president ial is going to start shortly after this election ends. Good question. Wave election for congress and for senate. But one thing i would take a look it is, across the country, republicans will make gains. Cant its going to be a wave thats, the ground and lower level campaigns, not on the federal level. Whats it mean for 2016 . Number one, i think it means we as republicans we havent atreesed costssed the issues that us the election in 2012. And i think we, you know, just like 2002, the Great Success we had in 2010, didnt mean squat four 2012. We didnt take that and run with it in the 2012 election. Was a, thats with a challenge for us and i dont think we as republicans have addressed that challenge Going Forward. Significantill obstacles going into the 2016 president ial election, againstss whether its hillary or Elizabeth Warren or anybody else. Let me jump in. Lot of thete, a factors that are working against democrats that i talked about flip over and work against republicans. There are 24 republican seats up in 2016. There are only 10 democratic seats up. Ive been saying six and i went back and counted, it was republicanven of the seats are up in obama states and upre are no democratic seats in romney states. Second, because, as neil it a president ial election so instead of a mid term like we have now where thumb on thenout scale for republicans, that thumb is not on the scale for republicans. Putepublicans, if they can an extra seat or to on the scoreboards are they might find if theyl handy, and have as ugly a year in 16 in the senate. But to me the nightmare scenario for republicans is this. That their party was so, so up and optimistic about 12, both in terms of the and winning aace majority of the senate. So they were bitterly disappointed, and they came out of it wondering, you know, did our moneyd to, or was not well spent. Im talking macro, the whole bottom. P to so downr community is on the republican side. We had, i may have mentioned this earlier, a republican who said if i werent for the koch blownrs wed be getting away financially. There keep being republicans in game. So lets say if republicans only up four seats or five ats year, so theyre sitting 4950, theyve had with all these inzing factors working republicans favor, if they a, their a majority, donors are going to be absolutely in a state of enormous depression. Its going to make it harder to raise money in 2016, and if theyre going into 2016 with only 49 or 50 states, in an election where they could lose umteen seats themselves, thats how you get the democrats, theyre at 59, 60 where they 200910, but 53, 54, i be the worstuld Case Scenario for republicans. Just really huge, which is why all of you, as soon a the election is over, take vacation, relax a bit. With in next one, you know, stay tuned. Way, we have the implicationings for the president ial, as neil indicated, a base strategy that they believe this, if they be the thirdwill base has turned out in bigger theers, running on Affordable Care act. But they have taken onetrievable positions immigration. Going into this off year election. They have, are appealing the executive order. Every one of the president ial candidates is lined up against of thea of legalization dreamers. They come out of this election with that being a defining issue a republican. On where you stand on immigration. To the growing hispanic population, the dreamers is the most important powerful symbol you understand us. The bipartisan poll for l. A. Times, theres nothing more for thet than dreamers hispanic community. The Republican Party has been a coming back. Question, instead of jeff, right here. Giving us afiveminute warning. I was glad to endorse your news letter back in the eight. Ill give you my new address because the Commission Check got lost in the mail somewhere. laughter a polling question. The world is changing and were lines and moving to cell phones. Can you talk about exactly how out to make sure you get a good demographic cut, i think the land line people are the white males and things like that. Out. O you figure it that would be the how do you get to that cell phone group . The democracy core does 50 rising. Nes and the, but the cost of a national isl with a cell phone sample 10,000 more, just dealing with the cell phone portion. In a bigger sense it has, cost issue, but its actually saved polling. I thought wed be gone by then. Thought we were so badly, had polls that were so unrepresentative of the country ist whats happened increasingly you can get cell phones, they do cost less, people are increasingly using it as the number on their voter file. Increasingly youre able to get to people with cell phones, to that means youre aable people and minority voters who are particularly high with cell phones. I thought people would not do long surveys on cell phones, and i was wrong. The drop off rate on our polls on cell phones is no greater than on land lines. Thats why these Media Outlets are unwilling to spend the kind of money that they should be on this to do it right. The stuff that stan and i do, were testing messages. Proe testing tough messages and against candidates. That allows people, if we test internet, people take screen shots of that. You dont want your messages on know, thepage of, you louisville courier journal or kansas city star. To have thatord happen. So thats why we stick to telephones rather than internet. Last question,ne and the question im going to ask each of you is, first of all, pretend that the cspan camera is not there, okay. Some adviceo give the 201617, in election if you had to give candid advice to your party on what they ought to thinking about and what direction they need to be shifting, where would you go candid advice to your party, and forget the cameras. Tough, but is think a seasoned woman president ial candidate is really right laughter medicine. Its tough tough advice is on the economy. The president spoke at the United Nations on where america stands in the world, hes speaking on the economy. But the economy has fundamentally changed. People know its structurally changed, there has a mature discussion from Democratic Leaders about this economy and how you what you have to do to raise middle class incomes. And that conversation needs to start. I think ive read that in a book. Agohere was a couple years that some fellow named carville wrote that was very insightful. Neil, your private advice. As youeed, weve got, raised it earlier, weve got a demographic issue that we need in the post obama era among africanamericans and latinos. And unless we address that, were going to have a tough time winning the presidency. Well, ive treasured my relationship with national since 1998, and its been great. Collaboration with united technologist, you guys are great, as far as being able to have an elevator in my house and a helicopter in my back yard. And when you make them affordable well teasing. Any way thank you all very much, we had a standing room only crowd, and thank you all for coming. [applause] joining us on the phone from kansas city, dave helling, with city star. Great two you. A lot of developments this week in the race including that yesterday by the county construct judges and a new poll is very close. Ce right now senator roberts is behind. Tell us whats happening. Behind been consistently, steven. You may know, your audience may know, he was involved in a very, very primary in the state of kansas in august against a melparty candidate named wolf. And Pat Robertson has been a kansas politics since 1980, received his 48 of the vote in his own party. Point i think a lot of people began to say look this guy who has been around for a face some serious concerns from the people of kansas. Do better that within his own party. So thats the picture on the hesd on his side and then opposing a guy now named greg inwho is running a campaign that sort of says im not a republican or a democrat, i can vote for the best idea, im a problem solver. Somehat does have resonance in kansas. Largely because like a lot of there is some disappointment and at times disgust with the stalemate in washington, and orman is playing into that. We sat down today with a republican from kansas, hes also the chair of national republicancan Senatorial Campaign committee and he is painting this narrative that greg orman is a democrat, that he has supported barack obama in the past and has voted as a democrat. Are you going to hear a lot more of that in the next 30 days of this race . Without question. There is every intent by the republicans in kansas and the Roberts Campaign in particular to paint greg orman as a democrat and to nationalize the election. To in essence make greg orman an ally of president obama who is very unpopular in kansas, as he is in other places. Now, remember, kansas is a very republican state. And has not sent a senator from party toratic washington since the depression. Only republicans. Has a bit in advantage, well see in a month or so how that turns out. Let me ask you about this poll from Suffolk University in u. S. A. Today showing that greg senator robert at 41 . The senate since 96, had e replaced bob dole. In this survey, 11 undecided. I think thats because a lot. Pee dont know who greg orman is, hes never held elective office. He ran for the senate in 2008 for a couple of months and then backed out before the primary. He ran, by the way, as a race in 2008. At so a lot of voters probably is,t know who greg orman and they are waiting to get a clearer picture of what his are and how he might vote. One of the most important things that youll hear out here, is that greg orman has refused so far to say whether he senateaucus with republicans or Senate Democrats if elected. That decisionw, could have an enormous impact on how the senate is run after the elections in november. So i do think there is some pressure from some undecided out here to get a clearer picture of who greg orman is. And pat roberts is going to that, hes going to say, look, im a republican, ill vote for the republican leader and myomes to that, opponent is not doing that. And that is one of the important this race out here. Let me ask you about the governors race, paul davis is against senator now governor sam brown, back at 42 . Gubernatorial race so close . Well, very different dynamic which issenate race, being argued largely on national issues, democrats versus republicans. The governors race is built around a competency and you will. If and Governor Brown pursued in term a very Aggressive Program of cutting taxes in the state. The effectt to date of that has been to blow a rather sizable hole in the budget without providing the kind of economic boost that i think he suggested would to happen. Wanted so for that reason, and because people are worried about cuts to or transportation, paul davis, the state rep itch, has gotten a lot of traction out here. Now, whether that stays through election day well have to see. Fixturernor is also a of kansas politics, just like roberts. Theyve known each other for a century. But there is certainly unrest voters in kansas. You see it in the poll numbers, of campaigns were looking at, and that in the en could have a dramatic effect on of roberts and dave helling for the kansas city starches joining us from kansas city. Appreciate your being with us. Grit to be here. On the next washington journal, the latino agenda in elections. Our guest is cristobal alex, president of the latino victory project. Then the chairman of the union. N conservative and the latest u. S. Census Bureau Report on Health Insurance, poverty and income for 2013. Liveington journal is every morning at 78 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan. Can you join the conversation on facebook and twitter. Today president obama is in princeton, indiana for a town hall meeting at millennium steel. You watch our live coverage starting at 3 10p. M. Eastern on cspan. The student cam competition is under way. This nationwide competition for and High School Students will award 150 prizes to thing 100,000. Create a 5 to 7 minute documentary on the topic, the you. Branches and videos need to include cspan programming, show varying points be submitted by january 20, 2015. More student cam. Org for information. Grab a camera and get started today. The chair of the Republican National committee, reince priebus, spoke thursday at George Washington university, he talked about his partys police issuesinvolving including religious liberty, Energy Independence, immigration, and National Security. Is about an hour. Were pleased to have our chairman of the board, david norcross. Pleased to have the r. N. C. Here with us, mike shields, sarah underes have done a lot of work but also on thank johnwant to brant and carey and everybody eventhat put this together. We teach how do you advance causes, candidates, commerce, in an ethical professional way. And in doing that, its best to bring people that are actually are working atat it and figuring out how you move things forward. Election cycle comes with a new skill, a new strategy, a new tool. And better understanding those tools is a key function for what oure trying to bring to students in making sure that they have the latest and the greatest and the best. Pleased towere welcome someone who is in the arena. Know that reince chairmanrior to being of the Republican National committee was chairman of wisconsin. Committee. And i can tell you as a minnesotan, there are good you can say about wisconsin. They share a border with theesota, thats amongst best things i could say. And on the western side they actually cheer for the right team. Ll but reince did a wonderful job in the state of wisconsin and his twoe a great job in terms as the head of the r. N. C. Party do . A a party focuses on making sure across itsrty various elected officials can try to bring a common message, provides the infrastructure for campaigns. So these are very important issues for our students to know. All of our students here today. Were very pleased and honored to have reince priebus, the chairman of the Republican National committee. A great George Washington welcome. [applause] by the way the packers are playing the vikings tonight on football, so good luck. Good morning, everybody. Director kennedy, professor brown, thank you for inviting us here today to talk about the the principles of american renewal. Only 33 daysis away. Early voti