For humans to live on mars, including my billing like building a village on the moon is better than humans living on mars. The space corps operative in pasadena hosted this event. Thank you for being here and being interested in living in race. It is not what i do for my day job, but it is what i used to format earlier day job and it is got into this. This is why elect to talk and argue about it, and hopefully we will do a little bit of that in the gym russian. I am here to talk to you today about the man and what humanity could and perhaps should do on the moon. Normally, or about mars i will not talk very much about mars. I find it on interesting. You can ask me about that in q a. On the first chart, let me see if i can get the laser going maybe this is off. There we go. This is the earthmoon system to scale. For those of you who might want to go to a planet someday, the planet you could go to. Days, and 12e people have been there and there will be more in the future and they will not english. Speak a they probably language extremely hard for us and very few people learn it because they are spoken it is spoken on the other side of the world. This is a remarkable thing in the solar system, which is a double planet system. Our moon is far, far larger compared to earth than most moons are compared to their host anplanet. Ofre is a whole set hypotheses about why the moon is there. There is another set of about it consists what operates and functions of the planet. Many years ago, there was an author and visionary who publish about the Human Development of space. Some of you may have read his work. He was fond of saying if god intended man to explore space, he would have given him a m oon. In fact, we have one. My purpose tonight is to give you a sense of the kind of things that could happen. What i want to argue is the reason it is relevant for you is not only could happen but they could happen in our lifetime, even in my lifetime. Hat is exciting to think about what is moon village . Here is the head of the European Space agency. He had an amazing vision a couple years ago, which he called moon village a doesnt mean a place with a church and a townhall and so forth great what it is is what you see here. Notion that multiple actors by which he means governments, companies, investors, and so forth can all come together but do their own thing in a place where they share resources and capabilities, which gives them safety and critical math. In my analysis, i conclude it is not really a single location, there are probably a network of locations linked through transportation systems. This is a very compelling vision, not just technically but for the reason he is promoting it, which is it is more practical for the global space bearing community than a human to mars vision. The reason for that is virtually every player and race today can todayipate in space can participate in a man village. Kind of a modern western concept. This is not a nation eating their trust in trying to flagspete each other for and footprints and headlines, this is a community of nations and commercial players operating other,r, supporting each providing each other services in a community, which sounds a lot like what we do oon earth. What a weird place for a village. However you define a village. It is a pretty desolate place. Im sure it is even more magnificent when you are standing there, and i hope you so someday written as an architect, i want to talk about some of the strange places where we build cities. The first thing i want to say about this is, as you heard a little for my bio, i thought about this and written about this for a lot of years if your interest in, there are a lot of papers going back many years that we can hook you up with where you can learn more about this. Let us talk about where cities happen. Here is one on the arabian for many that was lost years. It was a city of legend until it was discovered by imagery from space at an intersection of trade routes in what is now the desert what was once a limestone environment full of water. And had the unfortunate attribute that they built the fortress over top of this. Hollow, it is limestone caverns. That is what makes the shape or the radar dish is. A collapsed into the underground caverns oneday and then spawned the legend oof ubar. Here is machu picchu. Or thees offspring of captors were sent to be indoctrinated into ink and philosophy. It is a very strange place because it is built on the top in a valley next to the sacred valley of the incas on purpose to be an accessible. If location was hidden so well that the cookies to doors con discoverers never found it. 1000 years before the greeks. It was built on a volcano, which up, perhaps blew leading to the legend of atlantis. We are building a new settlement there on the edge. This is sintering santorini. Both of thesen places. Houston and washington, d. C. Sometimes rebuild cities under sea level. This is new orleans. You can say the same about a lot in holland. Here is where we are today. Pasadena is right about ther this is a seismically activee. That needs water from other parts of the state in order to support our lifestyle. This was the station fire in 2009. Here is one, a city of about be0 people that happens to on the north slope of alaska. Youd on the why this city is here. The point is cities occurred where there is economic activity. That is why they grow where they grow. If we are going to contemplate any kind of edelmans on another planet, any planet, even a very close planet like the moon, you have to ask a fundamental question of who is going to pay to stick a city on another planet. If you cannot answer this question, it is not going to happen. That is just a harsh fact of life. It is not the loss of physics laws of physics. What is interesting about a man village or a settlement on the moon. There are four types of things you can use people for in space. True they are. There is the one that the u. S. Government has only ever been interested in, which is exploring. There is the one that most people were enthusiasts actually mean when they are enthusiastic about space, which is getting the chance to go and experience , see it, witness it, participate in it, and write about it. There is an activity that if you enthusiasts are interested in, which is extracting resources from it for the benefit of earth. And then finally, there is an even Smaller Group of people who probably want to actually just go and live in various places. Experience,ore, lloyds, or expands. Or expand. The fascinating thing about the moon is you can advance all four place. E in that one it is the only place as a human destination in the solar system where all four can come to play. In the analysis i published last year, there are six principles that i think government village activities. The first is about science. Lunar science is fundamental. You all knew this because in star trek, there are only three colors of shirts. Command, engineering, and science. In the interesting one is the science color, the blue shirt. That is why it is blue here. That is fundamental because we 1 6 basically nothing about gravity. You know the hopping gait you see in the video of apollo astronauts . 1 6 is not because of gravity, that is because their suits were so stiff, they couldnt spend their joints. We dont even know how people let alone all the other things you have to do to be a person in an environment like that. We just dont know. Next, is what i call the practicum. That is because we know nothing g or operating on the surface in a vacuum. Needhe Little Things you to know about how industrial processes work inhouse systems he hates and how humans operate biology works in that environment is pivotal. You may learn you didnt like the answer but you cannot know go. Before you experimentation is required. Because the knowledge is pivotal, the fourth principle is if you have that knowledge and Something Else wants it, you can sell it. Economicsbasic law of , and i think that will become an engine of Economic Growth of any type of settlement on the moon. Five is resources. If you are not producing something you are exporting to somebody who is willing to pay for it, you are not growing. Might be a hobby of the butrnment or a foundation, you are not going to grow. You cannot grow unless you are extracting wealth from something new and exporting it to somebody else who is interested in. See,s for the divisions we to get to that level of sophistication even for a you need a0 settlement orientation. That covers your choices for lifesupport technologies. Physical chemical or biologicalbased . Which is more scalable and robust . Governs your choices about Construction Materials and where you get them and what you bring from home. If you dont choose to have a settlement orientation at the beginning, that lowers the bar for all the kinds of things you have to do because you can just bring stuff from home, which is far cheaper than developing it there were expecting to depend on it there. So, those six findings are principles that came from a set of finding in my analysis. I will not bore you with all 12, i will just show you a couple that are particularly provocative. Number one, technically we could do it. Aerospace the Global Enterprise with the capabilities that exist around the world. We could do it. Here is a comparison. The International Stage station space station. An amazing accomplishment. If you reduce it to its essence, its power production, its laboratories, it is a way of getting back and forth. Be a shuttle. E to it could be a dragon, but it is some kind of shuttle. What is the moon village . It is always think the four things we do not have today. A way to get back and forth between the earth and the moon, a way to get to the surface and backup from the surface of the oon, a way to build and , and then a way to extract materials from what we find there. This alone tells you that if this thing costs 100 billion even because we have most of these things, if this only cost 50 billion, then you have to spend a whole other program to get this stuff. Humans toreason why mars is unaffordable and will remain so. All these things are necessary for mars as well and mars is really, really far away. But here is finding number two. There are rules for all of these players. Heres what i call the big for government agencies. Acea, the european sp agency, the Chinese Space agency, and the Russian Space agency. Then there are others and then there is we call industry. Old space and new space. The point is, all the things to do in England Village are so diverse and interlock in such a way that there is room for everybody. There is more than enough work to do for everybody to play. That is an important consideration for building a community, a practice, and a community of progress. Export. Equires you have to export it to somebody who is willing to pay or else you will never grow. This is what i call the topline Budget Constraint problem. Is 20 billion a year and it will not double or go up by a factor of 10. All the other space agencies together are about equal in some to the nasa budget. If you expect to present any element ororse settlement, you need money from somewhere else. Where do you get money . You get it from other Capital Markets and entrepreneurs. Will they buy . What would they buy . Wantn space one might gases and things to breathe and so far. The terrestrial ones might want and things wets are much more familiar with in the tourism and entertainment industry. Those are the things to export. I have never yet come up with anything other than this list. What is interesting is the scale. You can probably find a couple hundred Million Dollars worth of science that governments are willing to pay you. You can find an order are magnitude more than that, still constrained by the governments topline budget for what people are willing to buy from you to use in space, and then the real money comes from the terrestrial market. This begins to give you a sense of what it would require if a man village were to be able to village were to be able to grow. The practical stuff has to come first. Environmental management means learning how to operate in that environment. Industrial operations. How do you do production scale stuff . Build things, fix things. Kitchen science. For years i said, you cannot have a space hotel until you can cook and on that and make a martini in space. Nobody knows how to do that, by the way. Nobody knows how to do it. That would be a great reality tv show. Experimenting in the kitchen on the man. Imagine the accidents that could happen. That makes good tv. How to live and do all the things you know how to do for a community of people. The thing nasa talks about which is preparing to go to, which is thi ea all of these mars. All of these things need to be learned. Finding seven is learning those and expense of the amount of experimentation because it is on the moon. It is expensive to get there and back in function and survive. All that stuff has to be learned an expensive if your muscles they. Once we know what we could get for the moon and how well and fast could grow capability on the moon or settlement for moon, then the growth comes from group three, the commercial guys. Theyre making stuff they are selling to each other and to everyone else. Government investment is enabling the commercial but commercial enterprise controls growth. The future i am painting for you in my mind, optimistic. Probably didnt seem that way to you. But i think we have learned many times in many fields that the greatest optimism arises from the most critical visions. By critical and envisions that can become real, that meet the requirements of reality. In a world in the world we live in where we see things on screens that appear to be real, realistic, they give us a sense of what is real that may or may not be true. It is best if we actually understand what is true, what must be true, what cannot not be true so that the visions we fashion and work on together and realizable. As were great things come from. Things that are not just visions but there actually built and they happen. That is how the nation happens. That is how technological cess happens around the world. I dont mean to be a wet blanket. N mars what must happen without which visionary things cannot happen . With that means is taking this place which we see all the time in the night sky and humanity has seen since you it was ing and reviewing it this way. This is a map of the moon but it is emblematic of appreciating this other place with a surface area as large as africa is full of resources, opportunities, questions, unknowns, and chances for explanation, for experience, for exploitation, and for expansion. I will stop there and ask you guys for questions. There is one already. Then we will get to the gym in a in ae of minutes the jam couple of minutes. Thequestion is about potential for manufacturing on the moon. Oh, we have a roving mic. Ok. Questions,e asking please ask on the mic. Where the potentials for manufacturing from the moon . It completelys depends on the utility of what can be manufactured. As an my favorites, architect, is there is a lot of needed iron. Particles of reduced iron because of hydrogen in the solar wind. There are particles of iron that can be extracted magnetically and used to make things out of iron, which is an amazing thing. It is a thing we havent done for architectural purposes on earth since the late 19th century. It might even introduce a whole new aesthetic, architecture made of rock, cast, stone, and iron. I personally find that remarkable. In terms of exporting stuff from the moon to some other place, there are two. When is using lunar materials, metals, glasses for this construction of solar power satellites. Forother would be things for earth directly. Because itium three is the fuel for one Nuclear Reaction that might be usable in a fusion reactor for power production, although there is innty of helium three sea water. Breaking the skillet up and use it for energy on work, then you can strip mined the surface of the moon. The other is rarer elements, which do exist in some concentrations on the moon, particularly on the Northwest Side as we see that your side of the moon up in this area. Event may know the most Common Source of rare elements honored today is in china. Is most common use widespread in advanced technology things. Every screen and all your cell phones, and the magnets that make them Wind Turbines will work out on the way to palm springs for clean energy. We get all that fancy stuff from china. We could get it from the moon. It is unknown whether that could ever be economical and that to enable a Growth Market on the moon. Addressed the material and elemental part of the question. I yield the mic to the person behind me, but i would like to follow up with could you address possibly the aspects of low gravity and the unlimited amounts of solar energy . Solar energy on the moon is unlimited, but in most places on the moon there is a twoweek day night cycle. Energy storage is a challenge. Im intrigued with the possibilities of 1 6 g construction. It doesnt have to do with gravity, it has to do with maintaining atmospheric pressure. Build structures like the on earth. That is like living inside a pressure vessel, only in reverse. That is tough in high risk. But it can be done. As with base station is. Inside a large pressure vessel, which we dont know how to make, one could build secondary structures that are extremely slender because of 1 6 g. There are essentially no moon quakes. There is a kind of the setting of lunar architecture that is fascinating to imagine. Let us go to another question. Which side of the moon would you imagine people wanting to village . Nd establish a the dark side, and the light side. Those are probably really hard to live on. There is a dark side in the lakeside they change all the time. The near side of our site are extremely different and we dont fully know why. That is one of the reasons why we need to do more explanation. The far more rugged and it has a scientific benefit, which is it is in the radio shadow of earth. Havent see the noise we on earth. Newhole opena window of understanding earth. We dont want a lot of people to run a Radio Telescope facility. Is place i would want to be where ive the earth in the sky because, how cool is that . Be and theit might terrain, it is even cooler with earth in the sky. There is a psychological significance there. I can remember which astronaut howas, but one talked about potent it was to blot out the earth wi