We have genuine debate taking over. We have politics there and other policies. Over the past decade or two, the most conservative candidates have come from kansas. Kansas voting patterns trend republican. In truth they lean republican. I was a victim of that myself. People forget that in 1978, a democratic speaker of the house defeated a republican and combatant. Incumbent. Bob dolelk about the race. No matter what happens in november, whichever party wins these races, i am hopeful that this can be positive. Senator dall is one of the founders here. A legend of american politics. He told me that elections are therapeutic. I think he was referring to his closely run race in 1974. Senator dole won by 1 . The closest political race and country. They each spent about 1 million total in that senate race. Today, i dont know if 1 million would have bought him 3 days of advertising. Senator dole never gave up on his values. He did embody a more inclusive approach to the kansas elections. He is the senator for every kansas citizen. That is a lesson for people on both sides of the aisle. Politics can be a way to try to bring people together, rather than divide. No matter how the elections turn out, lets hope that all the winners all over the country can follow senator doles bipartisan lead. I turned to the director of our democracy project. Thank you. [applause] thank you, dan. I was wondering if you were going to go with those twine and well metaphors. We have a great panel to talk about the Midterm Elections. To also talk about the polarization in our electorate. Each of us will speak for about 10 minutes. We will have some discussion. We will open it up to your questions. We will look at some of the current races and longer trends. Our guest have worked with us on a series of polls. We will probably hear a little bit more from them on that. Let me introduce our panelists. The founder of north star opinion research. He has had numerous clients. Our next panelists is amy walter, National Editor for the political report. She was the political director at abc news. One of our great commentators on the election races. Finally, mark mehlman, our partner in several polls that we have run. He is founder and president of the mehlman group. It is a great panel. Let me begin. I will say a few words. I will go right down the line. Where are we going in this election . There is a republican direction to this election. How large is the question . Why is there a republican direction . What are the macro factors . They almost always lose some seats in congress. Midterm elections are more republican in terms of their composition. People can sometimes overstate that. Third, the president s Approval Rating. It does affect these elections. The president has said he is on the ballot. Republicans are trying to portray him that way. The president s Approval Ratings have been in the low 40 range throughout the year. Finally, republicans are playing on some good turf. They have a lot more Seats Available to pickup. More democrats are holding the seats. They focus their attention on the 16th they are competing on. There are not so many seats like this today. If they win them, there is a body of other seats. They have likely wins in six places. Aside from that, there are six other raises to watch. Two swing states. Where republicans are leading in the polls. In iowa and colorado. Two states where they are republican leaning states. The polls are closed. That is in kansas and georgia. North carolina and New Hampshire, where the states are leaning a little democratic. They are swing states. They are close within the margin. If republicans win two of those, they will get the majority. There is a likelihood that the republicans will move to the majority. Quickly, the house the direction is in the republican direction. The number of republican seats out there is small. The gains of a modest amount are likely. We have a really interesting race. We have a good republican trend, but many seats held by republicans are close races. Some places where republicans might win in democratic states. Or democrats might win in republican leaning states, like kansas. What i will finally say about polarization is this. Everybody will take this on in a different way. One way of looking at congress and what is happening is to take about how members of congress are able to represent their seats sometimes against their party. I am mentioned the six seats in the Democrats Holding very republican seats. 1992, there were many seats in congress that were held by democrats where republican president s would win overwhelmingly. There were over 90 seats that the democrats could hope to defeat. This district is not going to vote for the democratic nominee nationally. I can hold it. That number was a large number. Republicans had a smaller but substantial number, 15 or so seats. Those numbers have come down dramatically. Today, we have about five seats on the democratic side in the house, some of whom are retiring. They are like that. One on the democratic side. I think well see some of that trend continue. If those six seats we are talking about, the ones in montana, alaska, arkansas, louisiana, West Virginia if they turned republican, we will be left with a few seats left that are like that. Jon tester in montana. You have Heidi Heitkamp in north dakota. Susan collins will win reelection. That is a state that is democratic. She is republican. A tiny fraction of the senate. Those members of the senate were the most moderate. If you think about a member from a swing district, not necessarily much different than an average member and congress. Those seats are where you find a democrat representing a republican seat, republican representing a democratic seat. We will see some sort of trend, at least in the senate, that we have been seeing over the last 30 years towards more separation and less party voting. The real republican seats represented by republicans. The real democratic seats represented by democrats. I hope you will tell us what you think about the races. Thank you. Thank you to the policy center for putting this on and for inviting us. We have really enjoyed working with you. Some of the work marked and i have done together is interesting stuff. I would encourage you to go on the website and take a look. It is also a real privilege to share the podium with the other two guests. In a season of overwrought political analysis, these two are voices of reason. The very best in their fields. It is a real privilege to be on the podium with both of you. John has done a great job of sketching the broader environment and discussing why this looks like a republican year. Those of us who are in the polling business have seen this coming for a long time. We are constantly on the lookout for a wave. How big is the wave . Or has not been a lot of hard evidence in the polling in these very states up to this point of the big wave coming. It is like a muggy summer day. You know that under storms could develop, even if theyre not on the radar. So we have been constantly scanning the radar, but within the last week to 10 days, we started to pick up some of the thunderstorms developing. First of all, waves tend to break late. Bill frisk was up by four Percentage Points. That was a week before the election. We were polling to the weekend. On thursday, he was up by seven. On saturday, he was up by nine. The following tuesday, he beat an incumbent democratic senator by 14 Percentage Points gained 10 points in the last week. Unless you are polling through the weekend, you would miss that. We are starting to see that hence now as we said here. The thursday before the election. A building republican wave. Like what . Washington post just came out with a poll that showed the generic preference for republicans at six points. Cbs news came out with one with a generic preference for republicans at 8 points. The wall street journal had a generic preference for 11 points. That same Washington Post poll in the nine most Competitive Senate seats had a generic preference for republicans of 18 points. 57 to 39. The generic preference for republicans in 2010 was about four. To put that in context, there is a real sense in the generic balance. You are starting to see republicans favored now on a lot of the bigger issues where they had not been a few weeks ago, economy, national security. Youre starting to see and states where the Democrat Senate candidate have led, like New Hampshire and North Carolina, a narrowing of those leads. In states where republicans have done well, you are starting to see an expansion of the republican leads. We are still almost one week away from the election. It is fair to say that we are starting to see the evidence of a wave. If you follow the polling through the weekend, you will be able to a sense of how big that wave is likely to be. I agree with john. I think the republicans are very likely to take up the three that are pretty well in the bank, West Virginia, south dakota, and montana. I think the republicans are likely to do very well. They will do well in alaska, arkansas, louisiana. There will probably be a runoff in louisiana. We will not know until december 6. If they are in a runoff on december 6, the odds favor cassidy in that kind of race. Iowa and colorado are two of those swing states where if the wave comes in, its going to be enough to carry ernst m gardner. We talked about the Larger Forces in johns presentation. The shorterterm forces, the quality of candidates, matters an incredible amount. The fact is that joni ernst and gardner are far superior candidates to some we have nominated in recent years. You get a combination of the Larger Forces, the broader environment, coupled with better candidates. You have the makings of a significant wave. We still have secretary glickman state, which is curious. Every election. Every time i think i have this game figured out, something happens to persuade me that i still have a lot to learn. That is something this year is can this. Kansas. If you had told me that an incumbent republican governor and a republican senator were both being in tightknit and talk elections for kansas, i wouldve told you you are nuts. Here we are. We are learning. In the house, i think the best bet is probably upper singledigit gains for republicans. Again, if this wave comes in and it is substantial, it couldnt could sweep republicans into the largest number of republican seats that they have had in almost a century. They need 12 to match their previous high. That is within reach given the current climate. So, assuming that we are right, that republicans take control of the senate, although it may be december 6 with the reader easy and a runoff. Or maybe even january 6 before we know sure. What is this mean . To a certain extent i think the outlook depends on the president. In 1994, bill clinton lost control of the congress. He said i need to recalibrate. He figured out how to work with some of the republicans in the house. That was in 1995 and 1996. He got some of his greatest accomplishments. Welfare reform bring one of the greatest. This president has shown substantially less inclination or ability than bill clinton to work with the opposing party. This president has shown less inclination and ability to work with members of his own party, if the truth be known. But he has got the model of bill clinton in 1995 and 1996. It can happen. I will just issue one warning when it comes to polarization. This is one question from the survey that mark and i did on polarization for btc in february of 2013. I will have to give credit where credit is due. This is a mellman stroke of genius. We asked about education policy. We did a split sample. The first half of the sample said to improve education, democrats have proposed reducing class sizes and making sure schools teach the basics. Republicans have proposed increasing teacher pay and making it easier to fire bad teachers. Whose plan you like better . Republicans love the republican plan. Overwhelmingly. Democrats love the democratic plan, its 75 to 17, overwhelmingly. The second half of the sample, we reverse the plans. Now the republicans propose reducing class sizes in our schools and making sure schools teach. The democrats have proposed increasing teacher pay all making it easier to fire bad teachers. Whose plan do you like . Republicans love the republican plan. 70 to 10. Democrats love the democratic plan. 80 to 12. The substance of the plan was irrelevant. All you had to know was this is the republican plan. Everybody goes to their corners and says let support our plan. It helps to keep this in mind. Wow. [applause] thank you. How on message he is. Look at the time. This guy knows his audience. It is brilliant. He coordinates brilliantly with the background. I did not get the memo. Thank you. I am happy to be here. Im mere five days out from the election. I dont disagree with anything that has been said before. In fact, i too am much more interested in what happens after the election. Even though Election Night is christmas. I have been staring at these boxes that have been wrapped now with a big bow on them. I have been shaking the iowa senate one. Is that a d or an r . Does this look like a 1995 were both sides recognized where we cant get much done without the other one. Lets figure out a way to move forward. Or were going to be trapped in the same situation we are in currently. To which point about the substance versus the candidate, he is right on. The idea that all politics is local seems to be a aphorism of the longago times. For those of us who live in washington, d. C. , we have a county board election. The mail im getting from the candidates this is a county board. I want them to worry about my schools, roads. Theyre giving me positions on obamacare, gay marriage, you dont have anything to do with abortion people. I just want to make sure that the streets are paved in the schools funded. You cant possibly vote especially in arlington. I did not vote for cuccinelli and im ok with gay marriage. He cant possibly good as an independent. We cant trust him on these other issues. I think we are trapped in that cycle. The other thing that i will note is that watching politics since 1994, the bad news about backtoback wave elections is that when we talk about what bill clinton was able to do in 1995. He was able to do it because there were moderates in the house and the senate. There were people republicans in new england, democrats in the south. They wanted to Work Together because they knew it was in the best political interests. There are zero republicans in new england in the house. I say this to both sides. Democrats won in 2006 by turning every republican, including the moderate middle republicans, into a character to of george bush and all the badness and frustration that voters had about republicans. 2010, every democrat washed out by that wave. And every republican turned democrat into a caricature of obama. There is not much to work with when it comes to talking about the middle. What i am interested in is that to me this is really a Tipping Point for the Republican Party in this next election. I do think that we have to talk about how do the two sides Work Together. There seems to me to be a debate remaining within the Republican Party about who they want to be and what their agenda is. They have been successful about making the case against barack obama and how terrible he is there has never been a positive case made for the Republican Party. That was a big factor in 2012. I dont think the Romney Campaign ever made the case for why he should be elected as to why the president should be fired. It is clear that the leadership on the republican side once to get something done. Kevin mccarthy talking about how there will be cooperation. Mitch mcconnell talking about regular rules, regular order. This is not going to be a harry reid senate. This is going to be a more collaborative process. Mccarthy saying we will work with both branches, the house and the senate. We will get together and focus on an agenda. That sounds fantastic. Now lets peel the layers back and look at who the people are in congress who have to agree to this. When you look at this, there are three charts i put together in a column i did a few weeks ago that i think highlight how difficult this will be a republicans to bring the party together. The first is the Brookings Institute has done a great job looking at primaries this year. What they found is that if you go back to 2004, primaries are getting more competitive, which is not surprising considering that house races themselves are getting less competitive at the general election level. They become were competitive at the primary level. As the margins have narrowed between what an incumbent gets in her challenger, in a year where we heard from Mainstream Media that all of those incumbents who were in danger survive. Eric cantor was the one casualty. You look at that trend line about the margins between the challenger and the incumbent, it is only on the democratic side where that margin expanded in 2014. On the republican side, that margin continue to narrow. If you see that trend line, it does not the you much good to get on the wrong side of the base. There is still a very big concern that you will be if not lose, you will have to work hard to keep a primary. What do americans want out of the new congress . We want more cooperation. We dont want people going in with pitchforks and torches and taking the place down. U. S. Republican specifically, do you want to see cooperation . In the Washington Post poll, they asked it if they want to work in a bipartisan manner as opposed to sticking to your positions. 60 of republicans say stick to your positions. Tea party, only 30 want compromise. This is not a group of voters that says i want to see a Republican Leadership that goes out and works with the president. That is problematic. Finally, the number who answered when asked if they have a vision for the country. They dont think eithe