Brussels. Whatever the result, theyll still want their voices heard when this is all over. Their voices might be heard loud and clear. Tom we just had results in from new castle it was a remain victory but only by the narrowest of margins. I think its fair to say thats not necessarily what we expected. Expectation is a difficult thing. We probably expected remain to do better . It seemed likely remain would win new castle. Its a city with dwight quite a young population. The university, quite a thriving economy in the northeast. Those factors we expected. There was a big turnout, over 67 . Up eight points on the general election in new castle. I think this will give the leave campaign a little hope even though remain won the votes there. I remember when Boris Johnson went for visit there he was mobbed at the station. People thought this sort of place would be labor, its got the machinery there. But also young. But actually perhaps these pockets. Tom we discussed this evening, paul, thats interesting hes in suther lapd, not new castle, were waiting for southerland. First of all interesting result from new castle to say the least. Any indication of both when were going to hear and what we might hear when we hear . I would say declaration pretty imminent now. You can see the gathering around here. Voting is definitely finished. Im going to call it. It is a leave here in sunderland tonight. I think by more than the remain had hoped. Were looking at Something Like a 64 6040 split. Thats a pessimistic view. They wanted Something Like maybe low 50s to leave. That would have been acceptable for them. But a 6040 split is devastating for the remain camp if that is as pessimistic as they think it will be. Its interesting, too, tom, because the two big themes of this campaign have been immigration and the economy. Immigration, around here, about 2 of the people abroad. Immigration really resonates. Lucky you, you havent got much immigration, wait 20, 30 years youll have it. That argument resonated. On the economy, were a couple miles here from the nearest car plant. They have said they want to remain in the European Union yet labor m. P. s tell me factory workers on the floor are voting leave the la bour partys ability to get the vote out here. As i say a 6040 split if it is that would be inconsidered as ad pli disappointing for the labour party. Tom thats an extraordinary result if it turns out to be so. Certainly higher for leave than imagined. Perhaps an indication that the night is not remain by any stretch of the imagination. What do you make of go on from new castle and take in what paul said about sunderland. Hes calling it which is an inexact science. Hes seen it developed. Two neighboring cities in the northeast. Rather different demographics and quite a lot of rivalry between them. In sunderland there has been a history go back to the local elections. But sunderland epitomizes whats happened to the economy over the last 40 years. It used to be a center of heavy industry. Coal mining area. All those jobs have disappeared. Clearly theres been disillusionment with how well the new labour party was able to step in. This high turnout in sunderland as in new castle has been people instead of the Young Remainers coming out its been disillusioned people fed up with politics coming out. This is our chance, whats the leave slogan to get our country back. Tom that is certainly an electrifying piece of news. If that turns out to be true, its going to change the evening dramatically. We have a result from orkney, remain in charge there. 63 . Maybe can i ask you to comment on that. Were not surprised. Doesnt prove anything one way or the other. No. Thats more in line with what we would have expected if the result was going to be a tie tonight. Its just in 1975 referendum on the community, orkney voted west but the shutlands voted no. Were expected a clean sweep from the islands tonight. Tom as the results roll in youre see the running total expressed as a percentage on screen. Once the result has been declared youll see it flash on the screen and see the Immediate Impact it had on the overall result in terms of percent and how many votes they won. Were calling this majority. Below that is what were calling a progress bar. The central yellow mark is the Tipping Point which both sides are racing towards. Half the total votes cast plus one. The point which we will know for sure that one camp has won the race. James has some reaction. Thon than is here who is the m. E. P. , we have a new castle result. We think we know the sunderlands going for leave. You have heard what your party leader said, do you think he spoke too soon . Orkney gave a gut feeling. In the 24hour news cycle, a gut feeling is reported as though actually i think what were seeing in new castle is very encouraging. What would you expecting there . Hoping for . Our benchmark for a level result for new castle was something in the range of 43 , 44 . To say that were on 49. 3 , actually, is substantially higher than we were expecting in new castle. Of course, they have done very well as a policy in the northeast in the general election. It was our best region in the country in terms of percentage votes. Perhaps to say that somethings going the way we expected in the northeast isnt a surprise. But i certainly prefer it to be going better than expected rather than worse. In sunderland where our reporter says looking 6040 for leave. Again, how is that in terms of expectations . Again, i suppose our benchmarking for sunderland was something in the region of 53 to 54 . To say anecdotally something in the region of 60 that would be better than expected. Sunderland is a place with substantial local issues. Of course we campaigned very hard, the fishing industry and deformation of that industry has had an impact for leave. Overall certainly very much better than exspeggetted. I wouldnt project too much from sunderland. New castle is very encouraging. Both looking very good. One may be more representative for National Picture than the other. Youre an m. E. P. , you are trying to do yourself out of a job. Looking forward to signing on shortly . Well, i suppose what we m. E. P. s throughout this campaign, it really does show we believe in the cause of getting out of the yuped. Were campaigning to put ourselves out of a job. Can i tell you this campaign has been possibly one of the most grueling experiences of my entire life if not the most grueling. I will certainly relish doing something less if we do manage to win. If you dont make it, if you lose, does the war go on . Yes. I think so. Its that close. World war iii with the end of western political civilization as we know it. If those threats did somehow result in a very small victory for remain, i think you have to question that and the 10 Million Pounds of government propaganda leaflets that went into that campaign. I think you would see the campaign would go on. Jonathan, our m. E. P. Northeast, apologies, back to you, tom. Tom thank you very much. Its almost 10 past 12. We have had our first few results in. This you can see is the state of play. Remain ahead but its hard to read too much into it at this stage of the evening. As james was alluding to there. Very interesting those results from both sunderland and new castle. Gibraltar was the first to declare, 96 of voters staying in. 4 wanted to leave. Nigel has arrived at the leave party surrounded by the media, as you would expect. Rlier, told i. T. V. News they were wasnt conceding when he arrived. Tonight, whatever the result, is not one for recriminations but for celebration, for the landscape of british politics over the course of the last few weeks has changed and changed forever. Win or lose this battle tonight, we will win this war. We will get our country back. We will get our independence back. And we will get our borders back. Thank you. Tom former labour leader even 23 we vote to remane the e. U. Must rep form. If any european leader, if it is a narrow remain lead, if any european leader says whoopy or british establishment thinks thats fine we can go back to business as usual, theyre brong. Tom im joined by andy, the Prime Ministers former director of communications back in the fray. Welcome to the studio. If you you sat with the Prime Minister many, many times at rather tricky moments. If you were sitting with him and you were together watching sunderland and new castle come n. You would be feeling a little nervous, wouldnt you . Yes. I think anxious would be the overriding emotion right now. Tom what do you then begin to think of . He clearly has to consider the possibility that its leave. What do you think tomorrow, the next day, and so on looks like for him . Does he make a statement . Does he get the bank of england make a statement . If he end up in the leave territory, what do you think the plan is to calm everyone down . I imagine he spent most of today going through the different scenarios. That would be the right and professional thing to do. Im sure he has. But i think its far too early to say what the exact chain of events will be. You got the Country First of all to think of. You got the house of commons to think of. The cabinet to think of. And youve got what seems to be the possibility that the party actually will not be in a state of rebellion. Thats my view as we sit here now. I think thats the case if we d up with a narrow win for remain. I happen to think thats the case if we end up with a narrow win for leave because i think the mechanics of trying to unseat David Cameron i think are pretty improbable at the moment, thrick given the letter were seeing. Tom were waiting for the sunderland results. Not to interrupt you. We have seen the letters tonight, i guess you wouldnt have been surprised by that, if you had been communications, right now you would be keen to see one emerge at this point. How convinced are you by it that if we do remain lets say its going to be enough to shore up the Prime Ministers position . I think if its remain, a win is a win. I do. Tom even if its 51 49 . Im not for a moment saying there wont be a pretty serious and perhaps quite complex and difficult job to do in bringing the party back together, but a win is a win. And David Cameron will have been if thats what happens, a Prime Minister who got the party over the line in 2010. Who won an election in 2015 that was absolutely against all predictions and against the odds. Who has taken two of the biggest issues in our lifetime in this country to the country and it ended up on the winning side. I think that is enough for the party to say, ok, another factor here also. It tom 2017, 2018 . Whether 2017 or 2018, this isnt a Prime Minister who has a longterm political vested interest. You could argue the vested interest in his legacy. Hes going to want to get out in his own terms and achieve what he can before then. Tom lets suppose we leave. What does he wake up and think tomorrow morning . Does he think thats it, im out here in montreal, two months, two days . Immediately . Or do you think he thinks now i have to stay for six months or a year . What on earth is he negotiating because its not position to negotiate . It depends on the number. My view is a narrow win for leave is still manageable. Its difficult but i think its manageable. Tom leader . Remain as leader and for him to work through it. Not least because there are a fair number of conservative m. P. s who are probrexit but not proBoris Johnson. And who will think to themselves the surest way of stopping the coronation of johnson, which they might have a view on, is to make sure the Prime Minister stays in place. My sense is this evening just from the mood of the place is doesnt feel to me as though the conservative party is right for rebellion at the moment. Of course its the numbers as ever in politics. And well see what the results look like later in the evening. Tom if the Prime Minister stays, does he need a deputy . A Boris Johnson deputy to make sure that he ends up negotiating what the they want . Lets be honest we know what we dont want if we left. We dont know what we do want. F its a marrow leave narrow leave on the 23 of june, 2016, as the European Union reverend dumb 2015, having been authorized to do so by the Regional Council officer, i hereby give notice i certify the following. The total number of ballot 134,400. Nted was the total number of votes cast in favor remain was 51,9350. The total number of votes cast ,000 vor of leave was, 82 cheers and applause] absolutely delighted leave campaigners in sunderland. I cant go the percentage now off the top of my head. Here we go. The total number of votes 3 st in favor of leave was 82, 94. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows, no official mark, zero. Votes unvoted for, 13. Mark tom there we have it. Sunderland you saw from the reaction of the lead campaigners on the floor, a majority of whopping great victory for leave. More than 61 of the vote. Collin, can i bring you in here, thats better than we imagined leave might do in sunderland. We expected them to win. They won bigger than we would have imagined . All our calculations have been on the idea the country as a whole would be a ty, what we would expect in various areas. In sirnedland the answer to that was about a 10 win for leave. We did not expect them to win by 24 Percentage Points rather than 10 Percentage Points. They will be very happy. We also had the result in in scotland which is an s. N. P. Area. You could say where it isnt in scotland these days, that was on our list of counting areas most likely to vote remain. It did but only by 58 points to 42 in favor of remain. We would have expected a result of over 60 . So far the results coming through this evening rather i think cast doubt very literal stage on the low key approach to whats going on. Its leave will be the Happier Campaign at the moment in terms of the actual results. Of course we havent heard much from southern england. And in crucial, can i say this at this moment, because these have been counted in counting areas rather than constituencies, constituencies were used to, all of similar size, these counting areas are very different sizes. Theres one where there were 37 1 2 electors. In sunderland more than 200,000. Some results are more equal than others tonight. Tom it does look as if we were going to have a very intriguing and perhaps rather long night. Im going to say thank you very much for joining us and having had that great reaction and indeed the result from sunderland. Lets go over to julie at the remain camp to see what they are making of it. The room fell pretty silent. Just arriving a few minutes efore robert what, did you make . Very big moment. Leave doing much better in sunderland than they were hoping. And a big better in new castle. Remain obviously one. Always expected to win new castle. And you can tell here were at the remain party. It was a party atmosphere. As soon as new castle it became subdued. When we got sunderland results, a bit of shock. There may be enormous regional variations as we go through the night. It may be the northeast has simply as an area come out solidly for leave. Certainly in these early results leave doing rather better than certainly many pundits, the bookies were expecting. Obviously going to be absolutely gripping night. Way too early to make any serious predictions. These are big labor areas, too. Huge issue. I have just been talking to , jeremy, ormer head very influential figures, and was talking to them about the growing division between particularly the White Working Class and the labour leadership. They have been increasingly concerned about immigration and felt that labour leadership didnt understand them on this issue. It looks as though many of them have been voting against the wishes of their leadership for leave. A Development Just in the last few minutes. The markets, see whats happening in the city. I would have been staggered if markets are falling in asia at this moment, thats what you would expect. Im sure well get an update. It would be staggering if it wasnt going in asia. Nigel may regret the signal hes been sending out that hes lost. I think we may see a flipflopping from nigel all night long. Pretty uncomfortable people in this room right now. Yeah. When i arrived, before we got these results, they were pretty confident. And we have just been saying the mood has dramatically changed. There is now one of anxiety that the victory they were confidently expecting still get it, but if they get it it will be close. They might not get it at all. You can see its going to be quite a night. Nice to see you. Thank you. Tom we mentioned, lets go over to joe and find out what the reaction has been to the news in sunderland and new castle. Its been quite a dramatic one, tom. I was saying earlier this evening the prevailing view in the cities they are expecting a remain vicktry. What we saw when the markets opened, this chart shows the pound relative to the dollar. Started trading at 10 00. We had nigel sounding very pessimistic. Initial exit poll. Can you see the pound climbed. Goodness what happened as those results came in from sunderland in the northeast of england. , the ned now by joe phones ringing. How often do you see lurches like this . This is wauns in a year move and well see a lot of these this. Move we have seen here is very, very significant move. It shows how jittery the markets are and how close this election, referendum will be. And the market will move on individual results. We see here the pound against the euro, you can see a similar sort of fall. Dropping two, three Percentage Points initially. That is a really very significant move. This is the thing, isnt it, than anything now that goes against the narrative of a remain victory is going to cause quite significant chaos as people try to presumably close their positions. The market had a remain victory and if we see anything know the leave is going to win, we could see more moves like this. On what grounds was the market assuming that there would be a remain victory . Because they had no drite greater insight than us on the street. I think they were betting on the fact that the p