Transcripts For CSPAN Washington This Week 20131216 : vimars

CSPAN Washington This Week December 16, 2013

About not just traditional media but social media as well. Host on social media, part of the poll revealed that facebook users showed a slight decline across the board. What are we to glean from that . Guest young people have been on facebook for several years now, and we see a number of other social platforms increase. It is important to know that still well over 80 or so of this generation are engaged in facebook in some way or another but it is not the only pathway to connect with young people. My advice is we can see through your program here, a number of young people on twitter. That platform is growing, especially as a way to have conversations and dialogue and interactions with folks that they can respect and want to have conversations with. We also see increases in other social platforms such as instagram and pinterest and a snapchat and others. It is important young people let others know that they are available through conversation but through a lot of social platforms, not just telephones or polls. Host lets go back to our phones. Make sure you mute your television or your radio. Caller yes, i am calling because i had a question, and i have a comment. I would like to ask the gentleman what statistics or how many people does he call to get these polls to get these numbers . Also, i am 70 years old, i have been all over the u. S. And i have traveled halfway around the world, and i have never encountered one person, black or white, that is said has never been polled or be asked a question to take it all. Where does he get his numbers from and how does the poll because there is so much information misinformation out there. Host quickly, john della volpe, if you want to recap for laura. Guest 2000 young people part is participate in the survey, so every question, the margin of error is less than 3 . Most do not have landline telephones, so we worked through the Knowledge Panel and essentially what that means is we identify people based on where they live, based on their address, and after we indicate a random sample based on address, we provide access to internet if they do not have it to conduct the survey online. If they do have the internet, we send them an email invitation to all of our polling is done randomly, but connected through the internet because so many young people do not have landline telephones and do not really want to talk to us at the clock it might perhaps. Host at 6 00 at night perhaps. Host john della volpe has experienced polling with president ial and congregational polling as well. Fort lauderdale, good morning to melvin. Caller how many kids responded to the fact that they stay on their parents policy through pony six . 26 . Also, when he talked with the number of people who would not be voting in the 2014 elections that is typical of young people. They very seldom vote in congressional, off year elections. With respect to the second caller indicating that the government was going to control their health plan that is the type of information that you all need to correct. It is strictly a private Insurance Program that the obamacare or Affordable Care act is promoting. It has nothing to do with the government. That is something that is not even in existence now and do something to do with conducting procedures that they should not do, and the problems on that. So there is a lot of misinformation. People need to actually read up and find out exactly how the Program Works because another thing, you have information, people giving out that information. Host we appreciate you calling about that information, melvin. John della volpe on his other comments, the poll methodology. Guest one question was related to opinions of young people on their parents system. We did not delve too deeply and that question, but young people, do they have Health Insurance and were they have a from, we found out that overall 70 of young people indicate that they had some sort of parents of coverage. 22 said they had not. By the way, anyone can go to our website to look at all the questions in detail, and through that we will indicate the number who have it through their parents, versus the employer, etc. On the one entered on the other hand, he is right, unfortunately we have far fewer young people but is big in the midterm elections than the general elections. Currently about 34 of young people say they will participate in the midterm elections. We ask one year in advance. We will probably be discounting a number based on turnout models. You will see that in the president ial election, you had a decrease in anticipation between 2008 and 2012 overall. Participation was high in the states that were targeted by the romney and obama campaigns, but for the other states, we sell saw participation among all young people decrease across the board, some states below 50 . For dissipation is not very high regardless of which way you look at it. Anticipation is not very high regardless of which way you look at it. Host the l. A. Times talking about getting young invincible to sign up being the key to success for obamacare, so california starting them with an education effort. They write host as a pollster yourself, how much do you think the white house polled this group are found out from this group nationwide what the likelihood of them signing up for health care was before even passing the law, before even introducing the law . Guest that is a question i do not know. Im not privy to the extent to which the white house polled on issues related to this. I know there was a lot of Public Opinion data that over the course of the last several years indicated that young people were the heart and soul of the obama movement. Again, in 2008, 56 had voted for him. 60 in 2012. It is fair to assume that democrats and generally probably assume that young people would always be with this white house, and what we saw was two very different generations. We saw the older generation, not pleased with sticking with them to a larger extent than young people under the age of 25. It is not a national set of data that we can look at. In the virginia governors race a few weeks ago, the republican, ken cuccinelli, actually one out won outright the 18 to 24 vote against terri mccullough. Mcauliffe. One of the reasons with the relatively High Percentage of votes of the libertarian candidate got. I think it is a mistake for any party to take any set for granted, specifically democrats. Host a tweet our millennial cannot afford an apartment or a car how can we afford Health Insurance . Debbie is on the line from albuquerque. Go ahead. Caller im listening to you and a lot of people locally do not understand stats. I do. Are you a mathematician . Guest im sorry . Caller are you a mathematician . Guest i am a a look opinion researcher. I work with caller but you are not a mathematician. So a 3 margin of error, that is a large number and you know it. If you look at the gsf, which is a larger sampling base, the sampling base you are using is too small. You are not skewing the questions enough to get an accurate picture and you are not taking account the hypothesis. So the idea that your polling 2000 people, changing the question twice, that is it, and if you understand stats, you know what the gsf it is 50,000 people. It is a more accurate reading on is that we what is going on. So your polling is not accurate. You know it is not accurate. 2000 people that is a pure 316 million live in a country. Did you take 40 out of every 50 states . Host all right, debbie, we will give john della volpe a chance to respond. Thank you for your call. Guest thank you, and i do not think we need to get into the debate about the accuracy of our polling, but we already i believe the Largest Survey on the longestrunning survey on this generation, just young people, 1829yearolds, every fall, 3000 in the spring, this is the 24th time we have done is good im not familiar with we have done this. Im not familiar with any other organization that calls this group of people. Typically between 8001000 people which has a much larger margin of ever. Certainly of error. Certainly our poll is accurate. You can see that and the other research polls as well. Host the next question you should ask is if you do not like the Affordable Care act, what kind of Health Care System should we have . Did you consider asking that . Guest i think we will. It is difficult because we only have a certain number of questions to ask every single semester. This semester working with 40 or so students, we wanted to touch about health care but obviously privacy and budget issues and no sort of things. Im sure our students will work over the next couple of months, develop another series of healthcarerelated questions to understand a little bit more deeply some of the underlying concerns with the kind of program and whether the negative responses based on communication, marketing, or some of the underlying factors within the law itself. Host to auburn, new york, david, good morning. Caller good morning. I have a question for john. How are you doing today, john . Guest i am fine, how are you . Caller good, thank you. I have one question that ive not heard anybody ask yet, and im going to leave it quick question and take it off the air. When the president said numerous times that if you like your doctor, you can keep it, and a few like your health care, you can keep it, period, isnt this one of the biggest cases of Consumer Fraud this country has ever seen . I will take my answer off the air. Thank you. Guest host in terms of the time of your poll, john, did you ask about that question, but that comment from the president . Guest no, we do not have the opportunity to do that. Host i have an email from larry in kentucky who says young people pay more for Auto Insurance because they are sicker drivers. Why do we need to pay more for Health Insurance, too . It should be that the old people pay and pay their share. Larry says he is 60 years old. To bill in athens, ohio. Goahead for john della volpe. Caller i am a registered republican, but i voted for the president emphasize he is the president because of the choice that john mccain made, but also, after all the years when i paid Health Insurance for my employees, when i sold the business, my wife and i both with preexisting conditions could not by Health Insurance buy Health Insurance. That is a scary thing because ultimately i had some really serious sicknesses after i got Health Insurance on medicare. I could have lost everything that we work for all our lives. The thing i dont understand is there are 48 Million People without Health Insurance. We tend to look at 48 and six zeros without counting them. How long would it take to count to 48 million . And these are all human beings. When you go to the doctor, the first thing they say is i want to see your Health Insurance. I spent my life in marketing, and i know that it is possible to come up with any answer you want in a poll on the and then the media, who i also had a connection with, take that and and that really makes people feel want to believe in one or another thing. Host alright, bill, you get the last word. John della volpe, it is pretty clear that the healthcare issue will be an issue going into 2014 in your neck set of questions on the pole. Next set of questions on the poll. What will be the next set of questions that harvard will explore . Guest the next will be in april, so we will give an indication of how people signed up, what the benefits are, etc. Im sure we will look more deeply that. We will talk in spring about ideology and Political Attitudes generally across the spectrum of issues from progressive to conservatives to libertarian. We will dig more deeply into the ideologies as well. It is a process with undergraduates on campus here at that makes his poll special, it is not just a professional set of questions come it is really working with undergraduates to see what they think of questions, it is really working with undergraduates to see what they think. Host our cspan viewers and listeners can follow you on twitter and read the latest at iop. Harvard. Edu, the institute of politics. John della volpe is their polling director. Thank you for being with us. Guest thank you for having me. On the next washington hanson willistine talk about the conservative agenda heading into the midterm elections. Lubricant News Reporter will talk about the latest with that bloomberg News Reporter will talk about the latest and the healthcare law. Medicare part d. Foundo but a recent study. Well take your calls and e mails and tweets. Host sydney freedberg is a Deputy Editor. Joining us to talk about the defense bill. As 2013 winds down, you have a couple parallel tracks going on, the budget agreement between the house and senate and also getting that Defense Authorization bill, that programs and policy bill for the pentagon done. Where does it stand . Guest the whole process is sort of jammed together like an accordion. Those of you who have seen saving private ryan will remember how the young guy, the translator spent the whole time trying to figure out what the word foobar means what the word fubar means. It is very appropriate because it is beyond all recognition. The one process that number doesnt matter and is working nobody cares seems to be the part that is riding to the rescue. Host which is . Guest which is the Budget Committees. Regular order which we have had for years at which is in the law and what is supposed to happen is the Budget Committee makes a budget which is telling all the committees how much they have to spend. The authorizes pass their authorization acts which sets all caps sorts of things like rules on military assault, but they also say how much each program is authorized to spend. Then there is the Appropriations Committee that actually appropriates the money. That is within the constitution. You have to appropriate the funds. In theory, the authorizes say will spendx, but we y. Always things get past in tight sequence. Until this year, there hasnt been a budget agreed upon between the house and senate for who knows how long. The fed hasnt even bothered to pass a budget let alone come over to the house and make an agreement. Host considering the agreement and counting on the senate to pass this, what is i mean for the pentagon in terms of the money, strictly the money . Guest is a big deal for the whole government because we are heading for a shutdown any. Full sequester which is 1 trillion over 10 years. Sequesters not really a technical term but we will all it that. After that falls on the pentagon. If the pentagon agrees that they need to come down, that it is also over, but the way the budget control act and sequestration works is that they take what the bill does is round that out. You still get at the end of the 10year period. The same 500 billion dollars cut in defense, but the pentagon gets back 20 billion this year. Host you mean that wouldve been cut under the sequester guest yes. First, they dont like the full 500 billion dollar cut. The president s request is for smaller cut. Im sure there are generals and admirals that dont want to be cut at all. The head of the army was a first that i heard was doing this. Defense, chuck hagel and all the other top brass picked this up. We slowed us down, give us time to implement. You slam it all and is so fast, were going to have to find shortterm things like cutting trading. Trading is important for troops. Host the numbers for fiscal 2014, the budget for that pentagon cap the to 520 billion. For 2015, they capped at 521 billion. It has been 512 billion under the sequester. In terms of policy, the Defense Authorization bill is the one that sets programs and policies. One of those is the military Sexual Assault policy. There was a lot of heated debate on that in the senate. What happened with that in terms of an issue . Is it likely to be included in this authorization . Guest yes. It is a compromise. Gilibrand in the senate and others who have been pushing hard for a radical overhaul are not happy and they will bring up legislation again this year. The commander of the military unit has authority to decide whether to bring charges in any case, whether someone was absent without leave or punched their sergeant in the face or raped someone and then there was a courtmartial process which was very rigorous. It is actually very well structured system, but then the commander can say, i overrule the courtmartial of the criminal does is limit the commanders power to stop prosecutions when they are being recommended by a military prosecutor. Use certain other protections to the victim or alleged victim. It doesnt get rid of that power to overcharge the backend, but that is what gillibrand and company are not worried about. Why should the units commander throw out a Court Verdict . The traditional military answer is that the guy is responsible. Men can sometimes be victims also but they are generally the initiator. That person or that commander has final authority and final responsibility for the lifeand death issue of his unit in ready to form an combat. Therefore he has to be able to put a Court Martial verdict in the context of the whole units performance. An authority cannot be undermined by people from outside coming in and tying up the commanders hands. Host our guest is sydney freedberg. Now with breaking defense and a Deputy Editor with raking defense area were talking about Defense Department funding. You can join us by phone. What is breaking defense . Guest we were aol defense until the spring. Aol spun us off and sold us to a Different Company called raking breaking media of new york. It only does trade publications. Aol has a huge content media empire. We are now renamed and rebranded as br

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