Going back to that first debate between mitt romney in barack obama. This is a great example of what can happen with the unexpected the bins and Cross Sectional pulling. Let me tell you a story. To the video a little before that. Romney is caught on tape. So why should you care . That means we track the same people over one year and what we saw happen y is people who supported mitt romney early would move to be undecided. Very few people ever do that. And tell the first debate mitt romney hits at home run. Then those two were undecided came back. Then the story that you heard is the grounds will support. Just that little part of the electorate that was the most Brilliant Campaign movie ever made screw up early then bring everybody back home. But is the incredible example of how something looks like a game changer but it is not. Bin kneale does not move very much ever. People do but they cancel each other out theyre not moving in the same direction. So there wasnt one moment to move everyone in one direction or another. Host why did barack obama win in 2012 . Providing over the slower growing economy things are set up for his advantage. But not dash. Host is and always the economy, stupid . Not always. But it does have a fundamental role but with the president ial election you could know the birthrate and you could predict pretty well sony 5 of the time although i fully admit i could win flipping a coin that we could do better than perform well have challengers were not responsible for the Global Financial crisis will do well. Doesnt always happen that some cases those come out winning ahead but those elections are always very close. So mitt romney had his work cut out for himd,ycn v. Host how do we view our president . Guest there are a couple of different ways to think about how they make decisions. To of the most prominent theory is to understand voters bill like this is Party Identification is the signal and it is the shortcut am pretty efficient. If i know that most are republican and a candidate shows up and then i have to take the time to learn about their issues because it is the shortcut. The second is said Janet Jackson period of what had you done for me lately . So talk about the president ial election to talk about the incumbent party what have they done for me lately . They reward performance. Host what is your position here at ucla . What class is to you teach . Introductory to american politics and of course, on the 1960s interdisciplinary host why did you call your book the gamble . Guest we thought it was a great title because there were several bets being placed at the start of the election. As the campaign wore on to began writing and publishing. We needed it title that was a matter the outcome. So growing but slowly growing economy so what should they talk barack . Should he point out that obama did not destroy the economy . But should they return the incumbent president to the white house . Or take their chances on a challenger who claims he could be better . And then trying to enter that conversation with a journalist. Host did mitt romney ever have a chance . Guest absolutely. Guess. He has said chance. But it was always going to be hard for him. Host talk about the obama field strategy. You cover that and the gamble. Guest reid dash unloaded and addresses before the campaign ended. We knew where they were. I visited some local offices and then from the romney field offices. But to wellfinanced highly professional candidates but it will cancel out but in the advertising also. They have a lot of money. So it does not have been in a vacuum that mitt romney is in there to. So it has the bigger effect so maybe it does not mean better investment 4 per boat. Host use a barack obama did not have the Field Operations still would have won . He did have the advantages extroverts with the overall margin. But in most states. Host lynn vavreck could mitt romney increase the field to win the election . Guest we dont think that is possible. But just to invest money in late advertising. There is any advantage to what barack obama had with the economy he could not make that up in the last couple weeks. But they could not have purchased a net advertising. Host you have some mathematical analysis to say if they run an ad said they before rather than eight days . A couple of things. Advertising is one of the interesting takeaways. But it does not last forever. So late advertising makes a difference. It would have been impossible during the last week. Host are voters apathetic . In but that population that does show up. People are busy and working two jobs for them to figure out the polling place. The campaigns are doing of great job to the extent of the of all electric is commendable goal but there are apathetic voters. One net of 10 people will do that people are really moving around a lot without Party Identification. Host looking at the numbers early 2016 poll. Clinton 53. With Political Science . First it is weighed too early. But at this point everybody was sure it wasnt a contest we ended up with barack obama and john mccain. But it is a huge driver of votes. With jeb bush says the republican is telling in their growth viable candidates. But the things to watch the democratic and incumbent it will be the democrats election to lose. Would back to siva Health Care Debate the country has had. Will that make a difference . People often think to access the rich. Most of the people that vote for barack obama they were already in his camp. Gg guest based on the fact they voted for one party and for one to be in the other chamber. But the people whose spoke tend to be less informed about politics or politics in general. So not the more sophisticated voter. Host how did you get interested . Po is interested when i was very young i was on vacation with my parents. To think about the condition and made a comment to my dad i hope the president could make a comment about to help the mexicans did he said it is not a real election and i said what do you mean . And there were good campaigns and for people to make the best possible choice. Host why did he say that . It was one party rule with no constitution not the kind that i thought it was. Host where did you go to school . I went to cleveland bin and went to do graduate school. Host how long have you been at ucla . I have been here 12 years who is your coauthor . We knew each other but had no professional relationship rather than seeing each other at conferences. I have to say that capacity to start of very popular block and i thought if anybody can do this john can. To you want to do the survey with me . So it was up a gamble. Is a hard to write a book coasttocoast . But if you tried to do it quickly and less than one year if it is brilliant because therein is weeks we would work intel 8 00. But when i would go to bet at 3 00 in the morning he was getting up at 6 00 he could pick up the of project. It is not ideal not for ever but for nine months. How important is the dnc and the Republican National committee . They are important tools and data for the partys