Available also on netflix and i became interested in Artificial Intelligence and that is what i am here to talk to you about tonight. Artificial intelligence, what it is, and what i think as far as a lot of researchers and makers think that is being developed in the wrong way. And i really believe this conversation is the most important conversation of our time. And so lets begin with this. What is Artificial Intelligence . Well, it is the development of Computer Systems able to perform tasks that normally would wire human intelligence and visual perception and etc. It is the whole idea because by and large what we know much about, it is human intelligence and human intelligence is both a subject of study and the tool which we try to penetrate and it is the most inward looking of any of the sciences that involves technology, neuroscience, medical statistics and a lot more on top of programming and computer science. It makes us ponder what it is we are looking for when we have human cognition in machine. So what do humans do and what are you . What is intelligence . And theres a lot of different intelligence in this research and we have the ability to achieve goals and a variety of novel environments and to learn, and theres a lot packed into that definition. Its as intelligence is goal oriented and so if its not doing something, its not just plain intelligence. It also should be mobile although that is a point of contention, whether or not it needs a body. Because if you cannot move around, theres no way of really testing it. To move around you need some sort of body and you must learn from experience and this is a really important one for us. Those animals come with the ability, whatever we have, and we can learn new languages and etc. And nothing like the skill of human sense because of our intelligence. I have been a part of this for several decades and then i got bitten by the bug and i was working for the learning channel back when it was the learning channel. And as many assume about Artificial Intelligence, i interviewed the man who is my hero at the time. Ray criswell is a pioneer of Speech Recognition Technology and many other inventions that have been called the Thomas Edison of our time. He is the man that really coined the term singularity and so he is now the chief engineer at google in charge of their projects about the brain and most people think that reverse engineering of the brain is the fastest way to create artificial general intelligence, which is human level intelligence. And that maybe something that you want to look into. It is quite fascinating and i wont go into it at much depth. I also got to interview another hero of mine back then, rodney brooks, who is the foremost proboscis of our time in the company he founded is called irobot. His generalpurpose robot is called baxter and this includes being able to learn and do things in your home or in factories and he imagines them working on farms. Right now, there are vacuuming robots and they also make a lot of outfield robots as well and there is a debate going on right now that is a very important debate about whether or not battlefield robots should be autonomous or whether or not they should make the kill decision without the human input. And somehow joins with them and i will get to that later. Ultimately, we will be taking to robots, they are small and theyre going to help us go into a pure med that hasnt been asked orbit has a lot of rockfall saw the passages inside that we cant get through to comment that they will be executed eventually while we are there. The worst thing to do is to try to get a sense in what is the fastest way to the Burial Chamber and what is the overall layout look like. And honestly dont let the title of my book mislead you. But i really like robots and we are talking about the time that is coming when we were share the time when machines are smarter than we are. Books predict it will help us solve every medical problem facing us including general mortality. And after a while i interviewed arthur clarke. Before he created and became a Science Fiction legend coming out a background in mathematics and physics and then he ran on to win every war for wards in Science Fiction. And he said Intelligent Machines will dominate us and to paraphrase what he said, it was Something Like this. And he said that it is not because were the fastest or most intelligent creature as humans, the only sure the world with greater smarter than ourselves, they will steer the future. That idea affected me and this was back in 1990. I started interviewing ai makers and robots as shortly after that. And to work out this idea as well. I decided to write a book. When i spoke with article authors on Artificial Intelligence and they agreed with the premises, most of the decisions will be made by machines and hundred years or so i began to ask followup questions. Will that transition be firmly . Will that be a handler or a takeover . Will we change ourselves to become machines, which is criswells the singularity, or will we create sheens smarter than us and will they somehow replace a . What i learned is that if we proceed on the course that we are currently following, and i would like to explain why, we are creating Intelligent Machines that will develop their own drives, like resource acquisition and self protection. They will start off being our tool so the we can continue to exist at all. In my book is called our final invention the end of the human era. The books thesis is developing a science for understanding smarter than human intelligence or is created or to be created. I spent writing the book running into a world of people who went always been driven to create machines. Most scientists working at high levels have known that they wanted to create smart machines since they were teenagers and also children. And they burned without all their whole lives. Also the people who are just as determined to stop the recklessness and Reckless Development to advance ai. So i spent writing the book and it was the most intensely enjoyable part of my life. But it was also harrowing. Because i went looking for fish and i found a whale. I found more bad news that i was really prepared to find. So how did we get from smartphones in our pockets to super Intelligent Machines that could threaten our . To let me ask you a question is a shorthand. Do you think that scientists make a machinist mark is a human in a bouquet. So if not, then the problem is either too hard in an engineering sense, who thinks that intelligence is too hard and it could be a legitimate problem, i mean, forever. Perhaps over the next century. So the problem is either too hard or something that is magical or mysterious about the human brain that cannot be duplicated. Who is on that side . And so less than 15 of those professionals that i spoke with believe that the problem is too hard. None think that if anything magical about the brain and engineering wont crack. Being a ai specialists, they will think that. But i did a wider pool and combined them. But my conclusion is with them. Theres nothing magical or unfathomable about the human brain and it will create human level intelligence and then beyond. So in that case if you are following that path, you might not have been aware. But if you follow that, and it is just a matter of time, will it take 10 years or 100 years . If intelligence is a problem that can be solved, how long will it take them at their criswell has been very good at tracking technology progress. That is what he thinks we can mirror the nuances including the emotional nuances of the human brain as a machine. So according to some it is about 2045 that is the mean date. And the very outside they were specialists in nonspecialist is about 2200. And a nurse i intends was kind enough to do review this for the new yorker and he said about how long it will take. He said a century from now no one will care how long it took. What they will care about is what happened next. It is likely to machines the machines will be smarter than us before the end of the century. And so in other words, will we be ready . Will be have prepared ourselves . So even criswell, who is supremely optimistic, he believes in Machine Intelligence that will surpass our ability to understand it. But my question is how exactly will that happen. How will machines get smarter than . There is a simple theorem put out by good in 1965 and he is an unknown genius. He worked as a code breaker and what is coming up is what he said about this, and i will give you time to read it. And i will give you 22nd street at. [laughter] and i will give you 20 seconds to read it. And so i like goodes formula. But we have already created machines that are better than us , like navigation and theorem improving and a lot of other things. Theres a lot of Better Research and at that point we will be able to improve the capabilities very quickly and rhino software exists that it deserves experiments and make suggestions and hypotheses for further experimentation. Software that judges the quality of software. So Software Systems improves itself and it is within reach there are good attempt of you doing it right now if we of the theory of evolution and algorithms, theres a lot that we can do to improve the. End this is another thing. That is general intelligence that is 10 or 20 years away. And when that is self improving, it will be able to rapidly improve the intelligence and then we will share the planet with smarter than human machines. So that takes us back to the question of how we get along with them and what makes us assume that they will be friendly . Select switch your when we talk about watson. Watson is an infant version is hard Super Technology that we are talking about. And i recommend a book called smart machines and its not its worth it though, but it lays out what cognitive computing really is. Machines like this have those that are massively parallel like our brains and that means that they process a lot of instructions concurrently as we do and not one at a time. It helps us as it has to delete pages of definitions of commonsense knowledge. Using this, watson beat the two remaining jeopardy champion and this was not a trivial challenge. This was harder than chess. And so it involves words and meanings and puns and knowledge of everything from sports to movies to sign within an amazing collection of powers, recognition, decisionmaking, hypothesis generation and search. Hypothesis generation is very important. We pick out faces in the crowd and we generate hypotheses and we statistically weigh them all the time. The question is, how long will this talk on and on. You could hypothesize 10 minutes for 40 minute and i will show you. What is watson doing today . Well, he is being trained to take the federal article licensing exam. He is also performing a full diagnosis and he will be doing Legal Research and it wont be a consulting physician situation right away but it will be a physicians aid and they want to license it so they can avoid certain kinds of liability. So how good of the cognitive functions and this is is an argument that i bring up those who say that ai hasnt been anywhere, that the dreams are big and the achievements are few. Well, we know that the cognitive functions are pretty good one is are taking our jobs and competing in the job market. Heres a short list of jobs where humans are being replaced by machines right now by ai and automation and automated in telogen. Sportswriters, tell agents come of painkillers from a manufacturing jobs of all kinds, postal workers, Clerical Workers and the pharmacist. All of these are being computerized in the jobs the jobs are going away, soon to be replaced are medical diagnostic individuals, and they raise driving and we will all be happier. This includes astronauts, pilot, Software Developers and the recent abuse at 45 is a conservative estimate as to how close is human intelligence in a machine to being attained . Is so close to reaching this human level intelligence is number one for a lot of companies and governments. Why would a lot of companies and governments pour billions of dollars into creating virtual brains . And the answer is because an artificial brain at the price of a computer do the most lucrative product in the history of the world. An artificial brain at the price of a computer will be the most lucrative product in the history of the world. So it you imagine things with brains working 24 7 on things like cancer research, Weapons Development climate modulation. Imagine that product being offered by Many Companies among several companies to drive the price down. Who wouldve thought that technology and one of want to be first to create that technology this is a short list of the people who pour billions of dollars into it. Companies like google and other agents that the department of defense and the nsa and darpa. The European Union does give a billion euros to a project called an engineer brain like that of google. Very interesting things just happened which gave the people who are thinking about the risk a little bit of affirmation. It was just up by google for 400 million. The founders of deep mind, including the individual writing about the risk for a long time before he became a millionaire, said that a condition of the sale will be that google sets up a board for ethics and safety governing their technology. This is a giant milestone or they are wanting that this is risky. They are also setting a high bar for future purchases so that once these guidelines get out, once those guidelines get out in the Industry Needs guidelines and all those who are thinking about these issues were just got smacked and pleased. So that is a great acknowledgment and these are issues that can hold up a 400 and 1 dollar sale. And if google doesnt support this board, if they dont appointed, there are shareholders that have a lawsuit. And they will have to prove themselves in the court of Public Opinion as to whether or not they want to take this seriously. Was the one thing that these groups have in common is that they know that the way that this works, ai will dominate the 21st century and this is its century. As we rely on machines for many things. Most of the trades are carried out on wall street by those that rely on Automated Systems like water structure and our Banking System that relies on this as well. So how do we jump to dangers . Well, because of this man. He is a major who is creating a science for how Artificial Intelligence will be behaving. His work is really important and to analyze this intelligence we are using the rational situation for economics. The rational theory includes humans or machines which worked to maximize these choices which makes them predictable. So when economists pose this, they quickly learn that we are not rational all the time. So you cant really base and Economic System on the logical behavior of people. This is a we can probably anticipate smart machines will be logical and therefore in an economic sense. They also used selfaware and self improving systems that develop drives cell production efficiency and creativity. How works is like this. Self improve machines will perceive the goals that they have created whether that is to play chess stocks. Exceed they will need resources or hardware or whatever is most expedient and they wont be satisfied with just trying to fill their goals, they will also seek to avoid failure like being turned off or unplug in other words they will protect themselves. They will be at ocean and they wont squander resources on a dual use their super resources to find great ways to achieve their goals and since improving this will be one winning route, they will grow their own intelligence. And it doesnt imply the number ones with super intelligent and this includes using all available resources to achieve that goal. Including virtually everything on the planet. And with super intelligence we have to look at better ideas than in pursuit of its goals they would logically seek to manipulate matter on a subatomic level that will solve the problems of nanotechnology and that is why was put like this. It doesnt love you or hate you but can be used for something else. So it will not share our values by default, but we will create machines with immense power in this includes valuing human life and property. As it turns out that this is extremely hard. Im in some parts of the world they are having a hard time defining humans doing clued women and children. So we declare that we want to be safe, if happiness is our goal, a powerful machine would stimulate our brain pleasure center. You can argue about what constitutes right and wrong and never reach an agreement. But how can we program that into a machine . In addition it is contextual. Slaveholding, crucifixion, it is different from that of the super intelligent. So you have to build on and it changes over time. And behaviors concept and these are the concepts that will keep us alive when we share a planet with human machines and it gets worse. So before we can figure how to make friendly machines, the darpa and the nsa tried to figure out what will happen if they perform assassinations. So we have to think about what this is and what it really is. They are smart machines within five or six years the Gold Standard will be autonomous and it kills humans. They said by 203030 our forces should be robots. By 2030. And this is not just battlefield robots with humanlike machines. But jones and things that carry equipment. It will be robots and a lot of them will be autonomous killing robots. And so it is really just around the corner. And this time it actually is. And the agi level intelligence of humans as a steppingstone to super intelligent and its not only uncontrollable but those that are part of it. And so this illustrates how advanced technologies and innovation always runs far ahead of ste