Robert bryces latest book entitled smaller faster lighter denser cheaper, and i would add, more colorful. [laughter] look at that. Its jumping off the page. Smaller faster lighter denser cheaper is roberts fifth book, and i think quite possibly, his best. First off, it is a relentlessly optimistic, forwardlooking book. In an era with environmental catsties, sectarian catastrophes, sectarian violence, plagues, various other things, i was happy to read some u as robert explains, the promise of tomorrow rests in the fact that we are continuing to innovate by making things, what do you think . Smaller faster lighter denser and cheaper. And in this way the book is a celebration of these attributes, and as he will explain, a rejoinder to the doomsdayers and the cats fists. These are people who have been promulgating the idea of collapsed anxiety meaning our future will be one of scarcity and shortage, but by every measure out there things have been getting better. People are, of course, living longer, healthier, freer lives. But today we still have these neomall fuse yaps out there, and theyre advocating for policies in america that robert reminds us are called degrowth. That sounds great, doesnt it . To learn more, you can call John Hultgren or maybe greenpeace. But robert points out or offers, rather, an alternative vision for americas future. Again, a positive one in which we do more with less and we grow the pie rather than ration it. So as i was reading the book, i said, well, he really seeks to answer two questions; why and how do we keep this going. Rather than saying, well, its going to end soon and throwing hands up in alarm. He wants to see the good times continue to roll. Now, while the substance of roberts talk, im sure, will focus on answering these two questions, why and how do we continue this, i think he offers a Pretty Simple answer that we continue to innovate by making things smaller, lighter, faster, denser and cheaper. And i hope that was in the right order. Now, the book is not a blind celebration of technological advancement, right . You have talking heads on tv, you say, well, well just solve our way out of a problem with new technology. Its more nuanced than that. He, its in some ways a globetrotting showcase of the actual innovations, the real people, the physical companies that are doing the actual stuff. And he takes you around the world. You go to panama, you go to canada, you go around and world, and you see the things that are happening through his3cn very accessible and colorful writing. All of these things, this innovation, though, is underpinned, ultimately, by one thing, and thats cheap, abundant, Reliable Energy. Cheap, abundant, Reliable Energy is at the core of keeping our society healthy, free, strong, and in this way the book is a natural complement to the work we do at the Institutes Center for Energy Policy and the environment. We drive home one message over and over again cheap, abundant, Reliable Energy is needed to continue the american way of life and its economy. Robert is joined at that center by senior fellows mark mills and diana fur. Cot roth, and they educate people on that issue and how do we continue to have more of that sort of energy. The wall street journal called it precisely the kind of journalism that was needed to hold truth to power. He has three books before that. Ill read the titles. Theyre fun titles. He makes this stuff accessible to the everyday reader. Pipe dreams greed, ego and the death of enron in 2002. Next one was cronies oil, the bushes and the rise of americas superstate. In 04. And this is my favorite, gusher of lies in 2008. Roberts all over the place. Whatd you do, 20 tv interviews in the last 48 hours . Yeah. Hes being modest. Hes on bbc, cnn, pbs,npr, you just fill in the threeletter acronyms, hes been on all of those stations. He frequently authors for us, though, beyond these books original research. He hits issues as diverse as debunking wind Energy Policies and the subsidies that accompany it to questions such as how do you alleviate energy poverty, a new area that were exploring. He has a bsa from the university of texas at austin where he lives with his family and his wife, and please join mew in welcoming robert bryce. [applause] good afternoon. Good afternoon. Thank you. I have four points to make, and im going to make them in about 20 minutes. First, gee whiz. Second, slouching toward dystopia. [laughter] do the math, and finally, the second american century. So, gee whiz. This smartphone has 250,000 times the digital Storage Capacity of the computer that went to the moon onboard apollo 11. This ipod nano i just bought it the other day contains as much music as 300 lps. In musical terms, thats about 2,000 in Music Storage terms, its about 2,000 times more efficient by weight and 6,000 times more efficient by volume than an lp. In 1980 photovoltaic solar cells cost more than 20 a watt. Today, less than a dollar a watt. 1903, the Wright Brothers flew in an airplane at about 30 miles per hour. Today we routinely fly onboard 737s, boeing 737s that fly at more than 500 milesser hour. Miles per hour. And we can drink beer and surf the internet while we do it. Fords new engine, an engine that i think is just fascinating, the its the oneliter or ecoboost engine, its a threecylinder engine, it produces 92,000 watts per liter of displacement. From a power density metric, it is 16 times more powerful than the engine that powered the original model t. Ithi also has about the same pr density as the engine in the new supercar that costs 1. 2 million. And yet ford is selling this new oneliter ecoboost, and theyre selling hundreds of thousands of these engines, you can get it in a ford fiesta that costs about 15,000. Since 1978 intel has been increasing the Computing Power density on its top of the line chips, and, in fact, since 1978 the year that i graduated from high school intel has increased the Computing Power density onc the top of the line microprocessors 78,000fold while decreasing the size of its circuits 130fold. Intel now uses 22 nanometer technology. Thats 22 billionths of a meter. Now, i dont know how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, but according to intels new their latest processing technology, they can fit six million transistors on the tip of this pen. Smaller, faster, lighter, denser, cheaper in everything. What is the book about . Its a rebuke to the catastrophists. It is a book that explains how continuing innovation is improving Living Standards all over the world. As michael said, we are inundated with bad news. If it bleeds, it leads in the newspapers, on the television. If it bleeds, it leads. And for years, even for centuries, we have been hearing about the possibility of mass starvation. More recently, peak oil. We hear of any number of threats, epidemics, pandemics, etc. Do we face many problems . There is no question, we face a myriad of problems, and i could spend the rest of the day standing here and explaining even just a few of them. Yes, we face many challenges, no question. Cyber war, conflicts from crimea to damascus, pandemics, epidemics, all of these possibilities and, yes, we have millions, even billions of People Living in poverty. In india alone 400 Million People are living today without electricity. But smaller. L computers, faster communications, lighter engines, denser agriculture and cheaper everything from sanitation and medicine to electricity and transportation has created this revolution in Living Standards all over the world. We are seeing incredible increases in education, in trade, in development all over the world regardless of whether these countries are what their political systems are because that is what we do. We humans are not going to sit around and freeze in the dark. We are going to innovate, and we have done so, and we will continue doing so. Today more people are living longer, freer, healthier lives than at any time in human history. Since the 1970s the number of countries that are considered free has nearly doubled. Income levels among the poorest of the poor are steadily rising. Literacy rates, particularly among women and children, are rising. In 1950 roughly 55 of all adults on the planet were literate. Today its close to 90 . A century ago few women were allowed to vote. Today, with a very few exceptions, saudi arabia and other islamic cups, women are countries, women are allowed to vote and do vote in nearly every country on the planet. In the london games in 2012, the summer olympics, for the first time all of the countries participating in the games had women on their teams, and they participated in the games. Today prejudices based on race, based on gender and, just as important, prejudices based on sexual preference are being cast aside. Finally. And why is that . It is because of the things ive just discussed. Cheaper communications, faster communications, more available computing. All of these forces are forces for good and for change. So slouching toward dystopia. Before i go to that, if you dont mind, id like to acknowledge just a few people. First, i want to acknowledge my friend and my editor at public affairs, lisa coffman. Lisa, would you stand please . [applause] yc ive had an unusual career in parishing. Ive in publishing. Ive published five books, and ive had the same publisher and same editor for all five. And lisa has a peculiar and unique genius for reading a 90,000word manuscript which i, of course, think is perfect [laughter] and she makes it more perfect. I also want to acknowledge emily, publyist at public affairs, who has been tireless in promoting me [applause] and who over the last week has made me the king of all media here in thyself. [laughter] i also want to quickly acknowledge my colleagues at Manhattan Institute. Ive spent nearly my whole career as a freelance journalist, but for four years now ive been at manhattan. Blade runner, 1982, walle, 2008 with. Hunger games, 2008. And even the new leg go movie lego movie [laughter] we are bombarded with a steady diet of tales of a poisoned earth, political systems and desperate people. This view is also presented routinely by the biggest and some of the most powerful environmental groups in america and, in fact, around the world. And its that view, that catastrophist view that were continually presented in popular media. And with this news were continually hit with this idea by the leading environmentalists that we need the cure is, in fact, to revert back to nature, to revert to some kind of 40 acres and a mule, green acres setup with sa sa gabor and eddie arnold, i guess [laughter] that somehow this going back is the way forward. Well, this isnt new. To be clear, we see it in the book of genesis and the garden of eden and the idea that we have fallen from grace. And the idea that we have lost eden and return to nature is a continuing theme that weve seen in the our literature from russo to thorough to thoreau and naomi klein today. 1755, russo gave us the idea of the noble savage. A century later, thoreau told us about the joys of living at walden and advised us to, quote, cultivate poverty like a garden herb. A century after thoreau, we had Rachel Carson and silent spring. After that, edward abbey, the writer who has become the kind of, one of the stars of environmental literature in america. And since nearly the time of russo, weve also been harangued by the mall news i cants. 1798, thomas [inaudible] published his essay in which he said population growth is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce sustenance for man. 1968 paul ehrlich at stanford university, still at stanford university, came out with the population bomb, a book which was published by the sierra club. Ehrlich claimed, quote, the battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death. Consider this statement from the sierra club on nuclear energy, and it has been the sierra clubs policy since 1974, the group said it will remain opposed to nuclear pending, quote development of adequate national and global policies to curb energy overuse and unnecessary Economic Growth. I repeat, curb energy overuse and unnecessary Economic Growth. The catastrophists dont just want to stop unnecessary Economic Growth, they want degrowth. Consider this quote from bill mckibbon, the most famous environmentalist in america. Our systems and economies have gotten too large. We need to Start Building them back down. World watch institute wants to shrink the economies of what it calls overdeveloped countries. The goal should be, quote a steady state Economic System that is in balance with earths limits so that we can, quote, restore the planets ecological systems. In other words to, in their view the way forward is to go backward. And when you consider what the degrowth proponents are advocating, it is clear that they want energy poverty. My third point, do the math. Bill mckibbon is the founder of 350. Org, an organization that aims to drastically cut Carbon Dioxide emissions. Mckibbon has said carbon in the atmosphere, im quoting, carbon in the atmosphere greater than 350 parts per million is not compatible with life on earth. Today our concentration is roughly 400 parts per million. Mckibbon has arrested at the white house protesting the keystone xl pipeline. Hes leading a Divestment Campaign aimed at Getting College endowments to sell their investments in hydrocarbon producers, and hes fond of saying, do the math. And, in fact, 350. Org has a documentary with that very title, do the math. Okay, lets do the math. In 2010 mckibbon wrote, quote we need to cut our fossil fuel use by a factor of 20 over the next few decades. Today we consume roughly 215 Million Barrels of hydrocarbons, 215 Million Barrels of oil per day in the form of hydrocarbons, coal, oil and natural gas. So we cut that by twentyfold, we go down to 11 Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent for the entire world. Thats roughly the amount of energy now consumed by the country of india. To give you another metric, today global gasoline consumption is roughly 22 Million Barrels per day. So were we to follow mckibbons prescription, we would have to halve, cut our gasoline consumption in half, and we wouldnt have any oil, natural gas or coal left over for aviation, electricity production, home heating or industry. In 1800 global population was roughly one billion people, and Energy Consumption was roughly ten Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day. Now, nearly all of that, of course, came in the form of renewables, wood, biomass, etc. Today we have seven billion people. We have far more industry. Our economy is orders of magnitude larger, and yet mckibbon wants us to return to Energy Consumption levels that predominated 200 years ago. This is the same man who calls the companies that produce hydrocarbons, quote, a rogue force. What is mckibbons answer for our energy needs . Well, of course, Renewable Energy, the same thing we have heard from sierra club, greenpeace, Natural ResourcesDefense Council and many other groups like them. Okay, fine. Renewable energy, again, lets do the math. And in doing the math, lets look only at the electricity market. Forget oil and Transportation Energy for the moment and just look at electricity and do the math on electricity. Over the past three decades or so, Global Electricity demand has been increasing by about 450 terra watt hours per year. 450 trillion watt hours per year. Its roughly one new brazil electricity demand being added to Global Electric gland every year for the last 30 years, and if you look at the forecast from the iea, exxonmobil, bp, theyre projecting another brazils worth of electric demand Going Forward for the next 2025 years. So do the math. What would be required if we were to supply all of that incremental demand growth just with solar . And by the way, im bullish on solar. I have solar panels on the roof of my house. And for the record, im opposed to all Energy Subsidies unless im getting them. [laughter] i have 3200 watts of solar panels because, why . Am i stupid . The city of austin paid twothirds of the cost. My neighbors say, oh, i love your solar panels. I say, thank you, you paid for them. [laughter] seems to take a little shine off of the [laughter] but back to solar, if we only wanted to meet incremental demand growth with solar, what would it require . Remember, we have to produce 450 terawatt hours of electricity every year. Well, the math is easy. Look at the Bp Statistical review, Common Source of information. In 2012 germany had more solar capacity, still does, than any other country, about 33,000 megawatts. And in 2012 that capacity produced 28 terawatt hours of electricity. From here the division is easy then. Just to keep pace with demand growth in electricity alone we would have to install on a global basis 16 times as much solar capacity as now exists in germany, and we would have to do so every year. What about wind energy . I am not bullish on wind energy. The power density is the key problem with wind energy. The power dense city of wind energy is one watt per square meter. If we wanted to use wind energy to meet just the incremental demand growth, what wou