Reasons, but the number one reason today that i love aei is because only here is a conference on government statistics more popular than the rolling stones. That is a great thing. This is a topic that doesnt normally get headlined, but lets face it, in a time when the phrase alternative facts has entered the american lexicon, is anything more important than what were going to talk about today. At aei we arent completely dedicated to the proposition that rigorous, rocksolid Empirical Data are essential for evaluating the success and failure of Public Policy and for ensuring that we are fulfilling the true purpose of our work which is to help more people live a better life. We are delighted to partner with the Brookings Institution and the hamilton project to examine this critical subject and we are co releasing a paper on the topic and this is a free event for that paper. I want to introduce our panel in our keynote speaker. Our panel today starts with Martin Feldstein of harvard and the president emeritus of an ber. Rebecca blank the chancellor of the university of wisconsin madison. Alan davis the retail federation, David Lenhart from the new york times, and diane whitmore, director of the hamilton project and senior fellow at brookings. Finally, let me introduce robert ruin. Robert is the founder of the hamilton project and a leading voice on many economic issues. He is also the cochair of the council on Foreign Relations and a board of trustee. A lot of institutions and many others. Previously, as you all know, he set aside a privatesector career to serve as the director of the nec and then as the 70th secretary of the treasury please join me in welcoming robert rubin. [applause] thank you. For those of you who were frightened that i am in the keynote speaker, i am not the keynote speaker. I promise you. We had about 30 minutes of comments and i thought everybody would find it fascinating but he didnt think so, so we will pass on that. I will make a few comments. First let me welcome you. I will make three comments. First, ai and the hamilton project, most likely have different views on a lot of subjects did to influencepeddling data with phonology and analogies and projections handed seems to be the obligation of appointed and elected officials to detect the intellectual integrity of the data. And nelson think it is the responsibility of the of media and the financial analyst and the policy organizations to hold the political system accountable for maintaining intellectual integrity of our data and that is the point of today and with that i will turn the podium over. [applause] that families must navigate the complexities of the new technologies and innovative business practices. To have reliable information of informed choices. The agencies provide an important source of this information. Collecting data for the common good when James Madison argued the commercial and manufacturing would allow congress to represent the interests of its citizens. If you can read on the screen instead of conjecture. To be well understood by a the public for which Government Data is collected. Like dedicated careerist Civil Servants onefifth of 1 the Data Collection is rigorous to be conducted with procedures and operate in a transparent fashion to be constantly corrected and revisions are made that the highest quality data is available. To refine and improve the measures theyre politically independent the they are few in number with limited access to the data but the entire culture is organized around protecting the security there all the handle on the staff by indeed to know basis and that confidentiality against individual respondents. The highlights a portion of government statistics of the economy and Public Policy. It is useful to businesses and policy makers. And in this era of big data to forecast sales but the firms own data is not enough with great value that is complemented that is collected by the government. And as a result of the businesses data that is consistent to allow comparisons in the titular to provide information of range of information of the economic activity. To make extensive use to decide when and where that target reports using data to taylor product mixes and advertising. The date data can be used to understand where they could be found that shows the number of the engineers with talk highlights of others in be also see their share of the elderly in the local area. To provide detailed information across local areas. The lead distribution of the h. B. One be set and the bureau of Economic Analysis of the total imports and exports we can break this down to show the u. S. Energy exports overtime that the u. S. Relied on the net imports that the Domestic Production of energy shot up that was previously unavailable to congress and the rose sharply the Energy Information administration shows by the year 2026. That sector has seen a sharp increase since the year 2000 and policymakers with the International Trade agreements by sector and federal data is made by the policy makers to evaluate Public Policy. Is there a backup . So i will live to the next an employer rate. [laughter] you can follow along in your book those bureau of labor statistics of the unemployed rate and the Participation Rate that is the number of people without a job from those in the labor force produces a number of alternatives and one of these measures to discourage workers for those who have parttime work from fulltime work and then to be substantially higher. And often used with the recent decline in labor Participation Rates. Also the increasing share that is critically important. Researchers have used uh data of the perot were policies with a womans employment they have also used it to understand the increase the participation of the Disability Insurance program. Family is gain insight especially around major life defense with a major field of study or across occupations to be useful. But to be sure there are important shortcomings we could strengthen that Data Collection with major limitations on the share the we also do aboard job to collect information also of great concern is the increasing rates of under reporting of certain behavior. And the administrative and across federal agencies and with the efficiencies of the agencys. In with policymakers across that philosophical expect trump to recognize and to join in the conversation on twitter also for our twitter chat. The with the of vital role. [applause] this is a topic that is a favorite of mine as a math major in college but we are going to talk about this topic and we also want to invite you as it is my understanding please some bright your questions down. So unmasking each of the panelist as a go down the line those accounts from the academic background with the importance of this data so for your opening remarks depending on the expertise of why this is good and right we should have faith. There are very few things talking about statistics and i am delighted with brookings to put this together. And we cannot take that for granted but i will mention four things and the first is the accuracy of the data to figure of how to do that right. And to do research with those agencies and to be constantly involved. With the actual collection but critical that includes not appearing to benefit any particular group. Like the gdp data to make assure and the worsted goes into the hottest singles chart person can file a story. Of the highly important one. And with the public availability. So you can go wind to do Different Things with that. And then to Say Something looks funny. And then look at those government agencies. And added hasted be fighting against accuracy. And then to say right up front. And then they are far from perfect. And we need to do a better job. And to that extent of the credibility. And to retract the economy in with those statistics to appreciate with these expenditures. With the Unemployment Rate the cpi of the Social Security check in the states percapita it mandate and a promise you people do not want that to change and that requires the update is in the early housing information if not hundreds of billions of dollars and that accuracy to the matters but britain into statutory law and to keep this data that is support important so i will stop there. But all the to give you a context so the largest privatesector employer in the country so that is critical for the larger economy as a whole. And theres only one of the location that is important because of their own data for those who are trying to understand in the final statistic is that for us as the first employer for many people well was meeting about teen unemployment. And to get the meadows first jobs and so from our perspective to many parts of the business as the association which i can better understand what is happening from the economic perspective. And then looking at retail sales with those Employment Trends in many different types to determine with the expenditure pattern meeting those demographics and then to understand the product selection. We have been working non the last three years using Government Data to fill that narrative to better understand what is happening so to understand every year with forecasts holidays spending and that is critical because there is a lack of bias and adds credibility and that is what to expect the the coming months also to help the established the economy and it also helps us to understand what is happening where the shift could be occurring because of their are a number of different ways both large and small retailers. So want simple and useful way if you want to invested day country it is important for the statistics one of my a colleagues went to the Central Bank Governor and then to say what would you like it to be . [laughter] and those illustrated to tell you very importantly that we are a hedge fund and which country do we want to invest . From those Data Collection issues . Into still had of the number of issues into or give those that are the most challenge to barrault costs in the Financial Markets and a cross of board for what is actually going on in this country and to remember that tremendous data. And may have of lot of issues elsewhere where we start to discuss in a number of the emerging markets. So if you take the 41k lead other problems with of policy makers so this is of problem for investors to of a Significant Impact on the returns that you get. So i do think these countries will do the right things in that is critical in the global perspective for those not doing their right. And then to think without for a one k. This is all very important about the narrative is this Company Investing in a good product or the right product . With the health care or transfer station so was it is the data showing . It is absolutely critical to be the lowest of any premium that all of the Financial Market to open and uh door this is a just wall street and then the fact of even have this debate at all. Im not a producer of data but i am making consumer. And to be out there and available that come from others so this morning we have new employment insurance and uh big drop the zero lowest level and is two decades as low as this. That is uh havent from the chairman of the economic advisers to have the ongoing uptodate not just the president s brother senior members. Such field of pulse of the economy. And i could not do that with the data from the government agencies. From the National Bureau and one of the most useful things that i did for access to the daily data. And to take that from the federal the d. A. To make that available and with that ongoing inventory. And to come now to. That is for a much better informed group of researchers that for nothing for free and also teach a course at harvard this large group of the undergraduates so when day, not to be at number or to and to encourage them to god to the website to go with this same type of data but i remind them to be very careful to interpret the data. For what they seem to be. Soon to talk about in detail is the real growth rates of gdp and personal income and productivity the agencys to do to collect data following a very strict protocol. And to the real output there are Serious Problems but i will come back to that later in the discussion. Son to talk about those shortcomings so with those challenges listing a couple of things if you agree with this and what is the most important . And did has plummeted if uc the 888 number then you know,. And with those in institutions and declines and then from the census so also seems that data that we are collecting and then a lesson this in their interest to do. Is useful for society to have that would be damaging for facebook and google interest. Third with astrid of entire lecture all society that the data is made that but to be more into the mainstream claiming that they just make up their employment. And now we have the of president who make statements about data whether about voting reflections or the unemployed rate with the general strains of anti intellectualism. So how can you trust anything . We have really squeeze despite that protecting a ready over the age of 65 to do with budget cuts and now protecting nonmilitary. In die was led invite any of you to disagree or to add an item. So what are the stories with the bureau corrects when of the head of the Weather Bureau somebody said i dont understand and done understand you can get this on the weather channel. [laughter] so why do i need anybody corrects me know where it comes from. So from that lack of understanding with the enormous numbers of ways. But i completely agree that the advent of big data from the private sector as well with very High Frequency data and the ability to integrate to find out to make that publicly is the accessible. That is an interesting question as well. Is it so small that it is not so much like Scientific Research your do you actually worry whether we will have the funds to collect . There will be a tendency. I the every part of every receiver of Government Funds with the National Endowment of the nih and all of these what the economists will tend to call the public good and my benefiting from it and us tendency to prompt them all to gather. The ready sees that as an individual service. To ramp up tens of millions of dollars. Where it has to be ramping up and that is exactly the point of big budget cuts of the discretionary side in past to have some exceptions to that. It does care proprietary information so that really is private information in this engine side information so lot of people in hedge funds looking and satellite images to figure out is the industry really as strong . And use this as an indicator in with this proprietary information to certain they say this is a good idea the this is no longer a public good to say that just comes with thatll all cluster problems and then to get more information on what is going . With the real separation between your members. Yes and to the point of accuracy looking at what is happening now retailers can tell you by the second how things are going. So yes there is some disparity with the large retailers of infrastructure can understand and some disparity with how quickly we received Government Data as a complement and give the scale. If there is an increase this is interesting trend to recognize and for Small Businesses they do value Government Data but from our perspective a lot of the retailers have access and to leverage the data to level of Playing Field so from our perspective we are concerned and that is funding. It was significant in states like beckys and in pennsylvania and elsewhere. Its a really big deal right now for in the long term ill confess im pretty optimistic. Were in a transition in which polling has to move from your phone ringing at home. But we are all carrying around these things and someone will be able to figure out and the government can survey people that will be at least as good, and my being certain of a fuzzyear headed opt miss here about that . A fuzzyear headed opt miss about that . We are concerned about nonresponse as well. I also think theres this challenge of needing to evolve the way that the population is evolving and collect information differently than in past about Different Things, and i think to your point about of course we have how Many American family dont have a home phone and how too you look at cell phones and email and texting. Broadly looking at dat and how to collect it, we have to think differently, and i think sometimes that lends itself so more difficult decisions of we have never done it this way or make sure we hey accurate data and i think understanding tackling the nonresponse issue is critical. Its also true that we have to move away from thinking about the survey is the only way you do this, but a surveys are increasingly difficult and the merging of survey data and of administrative data is important. The main problem is knowing what your total sample frame looks like and why do we use houses because houses dont move. I can tell you if you have a response from every house, but phones come and good and people and if you really have difficulty when you try to think creatively about how to do this differently, k