Citadel of the Vice President for analysis europeans to jedi and the moderator for todays discussion on the politics and the challenges relating to the gaza strip. In this is part of the Family Foundation and a lecture series we are not relatives although perhaps we are distant cousins. This event today is the live stream on the web site as well as cspan it will also be available later and because it is being recorded please put earphones on silent we do encourage tweeting. We hope he will connect regularly with us on our web site and on facebook with videos and other tools to understand of policy we also just published a new book will fully titled from you can take a look at it on our website it is available on amazon as the oldfashioned book for e book this is our temporary space why we rebuild our original premises across the corner. Is rapidly growing institution if you are able to contribute we do have pledged cars that our available at the front desk. Today we are looking at the critical humanitarian situation with a lot going in going on and fighting and to possibly impact the situation although boston has been under a blockade for nearly a decade and also with electricity or a lot of issues with the gaza strip such harassment only how they could talk about the current suffering to regional and international deliberation and how does one envoy a dynamics that some of our aborning could have a war again and that was very devastating and we certainly want to avoid another conflagration. We have an excellent panel with us today i will introduce them briefly a policy fellow currency based daughter of new york and say policy network day think tank without borders to foster public debate on palestinian humanrights with the framework of International Law and and inexpert on the executive Branch Policy with that is really thinking as well and with serving with distinction for go to my immediate left is the acting director of United Nations which has approximately 12200500 staff across of gaza strip with Mental Health event micro credit in emergency assistance. And jim my extreme right is a fellow with the brookings institution. Teaching at georgetown and stanford and indonesia currently writing a book on the israeli grand strategy. I will engage our panelists in discussion and we will close promptly at 1 30 p. M. Today. Can you paint a picture of the current humanitarian Economic Situation on the ground in the gaza strip and also painted the picture of those views that are obstructed and how do you describe the situation since the conflict of 2014 . So lets start off with a picture. Thanks for hosting this today but in 2012 there was a report called gaza 20 20 space will share a brief quotation by the year 2020 will increase around 2. 1 million. Fundamental ever structure for electricity and sanitation is struggling to keep pace of the needs of the growing population. Electricity provisions will lead to double that damage to the offer will be reversible. Since 2012 there has been continued development during the conflict and during that time 290,000 civilians were sheltering in schools 86,000 refugee homes were damaged in tens of thousands but in addition psycho social distress so virtually 100 percent of the children experienced some signs of ptsd. Also and i can take last few times we have seen a lot more delicate parts with fewer cars and trucks. Offical on employment is 67 for women in perhaps most troubling for the youth for age 15 through 25 is 60 with the courage electricity crisis running about 20 or 22 hours a day are the blackouts so to put that into perspective they could have electricity for as long as this Panel Discussion today. So when they do have electricity fails scramble to get everything done more than 90 percent of the tap water is not drinkable. And more than 100 million liters of raw sewage pumped into the ocean every day that his olympic size swimming pools being dumped every day. There was an update a few weeks ago to the 20 20 report and this is one portion of it. Most of those earlier projections have deteriorated further than earlier stated. The percapita has decreased and the demand for Additional Health clinics it has maintained Higher Education in standards the only water source to trigger increased the of the materials of gaza the access of material to allow that Infrastructure Services to recover and that has been highly restricted. So how can that be reversed . The un has been acting acting asking doctors to have a sustainable initiatives. Perhaps most importantly for the freedom of movement and vegetarian coordinator said of a more devastating a solution to increase. And the prospect for peace with israel. Thank you very much. What is the current funding situation . As a contributor so what are the current pathways . With the of finding information we have the deficit of 125 million on a budget of 15 million per year. We are working to make that budget deficit we have calculated roughly a structural deficit we have to overcome. It is the largest contributor for those agencies. We do have support from the European Union that is the number two contributor. And this gives us another 25 . So as you noted most of those have been close. We also have an active in coordinated role for construction or food items we have a very sophisticated system so we generally dont have any problems there but with bad tool useless that could be considered so they are able to come in but experts warn negative exports is traditionally manufacturing economy other fruit or vegetables so to export those goods the adjuster not there anymore. Are there other a programs provided directly to gaza . They give to those that operate for construction and as a defacto government. Help us understand those politics so block us through what is going on politically how that is shifting. Thanks for hosting the panel. I will try to go in in Chronological Order and going to where we are today. Is a lot of attention was given to gaza but that was the results from the west Bank Following those decisions from the beginning of the year. So with looking at the medicines and medical supplies in the salaries of the employees that are present and living within the gaza strip rather than the west bank. Allegedly said that that they are attempting to control which is a big part of the budget but that focus of president abbas shows that there was an effort to increase that pressure or to stop making payments and the combination is the escalation of Major Military crisis where they doing that for the moment . So with that regional dynamic to be unfolding for the past four years but most notably between her negative and israel but immediately was the entry of a new american president and President Trump already showed signs to have policies between israel and the of palestinians and they could provide bad deal. And then with that administration coming to office there would be dynamics and with the premier alliance and the islamic extremist including the Muslim Brotherhood. With the policy shifting under the of trompe administration he will make up position to take a strong line on the ground to implement President Trump of with the agenda so they you could identify through a single palestinian voice to take strong policies toward the hamas government in the gaza strip. So that forms the backdrop of the decision so that is the International Context so we see there was a significant opportunity so on one hand they were quite isolated and that meant there was no merchandize and also the relationship from hamas to iraq in saudi arabia in the emergence of the regime in egypt men to hamas was swept up in the policies to marginalize and protect the Muslim Brotherhood in egypt that meant those borders so all these together resulted in a situation where the government was quite isolated especially for president abbas so there was increasing rifle with the political establishment and the powers within gaza to position himself coming back into the political establishment so both the press dubbed him coming into power and the possibility of that idea would be supportive of the policies that president abbas was taking to increase the measures to isolate hamas so they could come back to the gaza strip and of course, of the saw in the gulf crisis with a country that was accused that is reflective of those dynamics in the challenge now is to show it isnt a supporting organization so that is the context and it was a flawed decision for several reasons and to be a counter productive than they have backfired so now hamas has moved much closer how that is producing a significant threats and now with some of those policies to have some form of reconciliation. So who is backing if anybody . What was he counting on . My reading of the situation is if he could present himself from the Palestinian Authority tunicate take control of the gaza strip in the west bank a could support this country such as saudi arabia if he could demonstrate to take control of the gaza strip. So what was resulted is the you ae as a possible successor to president abbas and that is more for egypt and never before i think it could fall either way and is now support of coming back into power but in deciding to further increase with the rationale is that you can increase pressure on the population in order to weaken on those governments. And has been weakened several times. And those between gaza and then they could further weaken hamas of the gaza strip from the west bank and that was completely misread and those latest on to bemoaned and how they see in the west bank and thai you see the future there. So in terms of the first question and from those days just before and with that situation on the ground between israel and gaza and though that murder and objections reduction of those three israeli teenagers. They came away for the escalation in a mosque gets a lot of that legitimacy so it is an Organization End to take a vantage end the crisis with those tools driven shipments win the war escalated and how it positions itself of the israeli aspiration for jerusalem man the west bank but i do think it is an ironic twist of fate of hamas that coordination that under his leadership but also in the gaza strip from the uae support and that the we have prevented that and that benefits by having another political entry point with the political establishment. And gaza is critical to the establishment. That is somehow marginal so for than to grab a foothold into the palace korean authorities and that is a very tough line pothos are increasing the author tarriance but also incapable of getting any concessions. So my guess he could get Political Support within the west bank as well. There could be the other contenders in the nba power dynamic. So now we turn to you. The israeli discussions in debate of changing developments in gaza and they dont have centers there with a troubled relationship in those current debates so to have the hamas standoff in the new role of the uae and egypt, what is the thinking there . Is a pleasure to be here at mei and i think the extreme right will be disappointed but that is terrible but for many israelis is a very bad situation so those three wars with gaza have been very damaging for those that were in charge so there is that growing recognition that status quo is very bad so we see how to deal with this one and it is widespread desire which is a state neighboring israel every couple of years and therefore wherever it would be you would have extremely unstable situation they would necessarily have that so the solution one palestinian done or one Palestinian Authority and the end to war with its neighbor. And it is worth noting that we all have a separate military to assume that is a constant but hamas will not give up its powers the matter the damage to the gaza strip. So then the question arises is what to do . Sova to conquer the gaza strip the matter the cost with the war every couple years but usually by far level heads prevail that would be very different than previous rounds and of course, the damage was far worse there than israel but they were running to the shelters and regardless of how it is in gaza that is not viable. So the other alternative with the official Palestinian Government is a desire that there is a dip bait from the right wing that we should not exacerbate the situation but in the end so that his party by choice so there was a market loosening the blockade so i was talking but not pressuring too hard because then you get into a war that you dont want one that is the Impressive Organization but there was a market especially on exports in part that has gotten worse recently so by a large is the interesting irony the ones that our more hopeful that our more prone better more hawkish john the gaza strip. But those ones are now singing a different tune. Right now theyre talking about accepting the status quo. The simple reality right now is that in this loop of do you try to get out of the status quo which leads you back to the hope that hamas will be brought under the full which doesnt happen and then you turn to and trying to push farther and resolve the problem the core youre risking more each time. Hamas cares more about its power than the gaza. What is it . Israel is in a terrible conundrum. The gaza strip is right near the population of israel in the conditions on the ground that we heard our redness. They are also bad for israel. The water is the same water that comes up the coast in the aquifer is the same aquifer under the several crucial part of israel and heavily populated. 2 Million People in its looming for israel. The solution is they dont have one. Thats a bust. Then the possibility comes up in the israelis know we work with them in the 90s and in charge of security in the gaza strip in the 90s and lost it to hamas in the blood he could. Some of the israelis know, personally, very well. Hes back by the egyptians in the egyptians fighting some of the same enemies that israel find his back by the u ae. In that context, if you think about getting the two state solution in the west bank and some of this is an appealing situation. Let me conclude by saying theres a difficult dilemma here and it not that simple. On one hand, in the long term, real solution would be to bring gaza under the west wing fold and perhaps its possible and we should do all we can to facilitate that. In the short term, what you really need to do is try to alleviate the terrible situation in the gaza strip and to avoid a much more terrible reoccurrence of the war. Have a very difficult longterm and shortterm dilemma. To my mind, the possibility of another competent gaza and another situation and things need to be moved rapidly in that direction but i would point out not simply jettisoning and accepting hamas which we all work under the assumption does not care about people of gaza. Not an easy choice. Thank you. I will ask you a followup question. On the shortterm issue why hasnt israel gotten the short term balance right between hamas, in gaza for now, and that doesnt necessarily have an interest in wanting a war except when its really is pleased as it has been several times in the past and in some ways hamas manages some aspect of the jihad groups that place a little partner role indirectly, perhaps, and containing or managing a situation why hasnt israel or hamas found a livable balance, call it a longterm truce or something that would seem to be in the interest of both interests and why is it that its gone to the brink so many times . The other question i want to ask is a question on turkey. The is really turkish relations have gone ups and downs and turkish have had ambitions to play some role in gaza and some where the relationship stands and where it doesnt. Thats a good question. I think why havent they reached a motor 70 where they agree to have a more or less quiet border. In part, there have been some attempts and its worth remembering that after hamas was elected there was brokered by the europeans that allowed them to man the crossings and could continue more or less as normal with the pa, president ial guard, facilitating the crossings. It wasnt stable. Part of the answer is why havent israel and hamas because theres ramallah in the mix. Ramallah is not a viable solution. Secondly, every time there has been an easing of a blockade and especially in recent years, very dramatic changes, israel has hamas. For the next round and we dont see gaza flourishing. That is worth noting. The early stages of a blockade the bucket comes after the coup when hamas takes over the gaza strip. The early stages start earlier even before the disengagement and they start when ramallah was in charge of the gaza strip and the start with the kidnappings and capture of terror soldier from the israeli territory. In short, israelis mistrust hamas intentions and its pronounced. Why cant they find a motor 70 . Every time they give something its emboldening hamas for the next round. The second is its not completely clear that hamas speaks with one voice and there has been an attempt in the past and hamas as different even in 2014 when you saw. [inaudible] the political ring class didnt want it either. They didnt have a section of authority over their military wings. Even then the modus operandi is difficult. The regional dynamic is important. Hamas has the region and remember hamas as a porter feet of not just israel. Blockade is right to countries. First, priority is a four is it seems as a general Islamic Group and from the israeli perspective one, and the right wing, its an appealing alternative because its an adjustment problem and let themselves. Secondly, because they dont want to annoy and concessions to hamas. [inaudible] not to mention all the countries in the region with animosity toward them. Ill try to be brief. Talking too much for turkey, of course, and qatar are the outliers in the region and with turkey the relations are complicated. A colleague of mine the relations have come back to a normalcy but a lot of the instigation for the big crisis was ben ghazi and turkey so wants to play an active role. The relations between israel and turkey even mor