And aggression, or rather i i should say conference comes from aggression. And youre absolutely right. I wish, i wish i thought of writing the book. He brutalized that society. But, of course, there are all kinds of examples, right . I mean,n, nazi germany, saddam husseins iraq. First you brutalized people inside and then that toxic mix just sprays out on the world and we see the results. So said no, youre absolutely right. There is clearly an example. One of the things, brutalization, i also think ill write about this as well, the was a historic practice introducedpr, apparently because its effective. What stalin create in 1942 on the very dire circumstances, it was part of his, not a step backward doctrine, and edict. And that meant that you put behind your regular troops, you put the income of the troops with machine guns. And if you so much as turnaround, you are killed by your own. And that is what wagner introduced,in and that is whats happening as far as we know continues to be the case. And so what kind of, what kind of morale, what kind of attitude towards ukraine civilians would you expect from these kinds of troops. On that grim note, my friends, anybody have any questions for leon . Lets give the first shot. Ye. Hes his hes recovering safely from the. Is this on . Okay . Yeah. Okay. Hello, dr. Aaron. Good to see you again. Excited to see the book published. Very fond memories of working many long hours, assisting with and im excited to see the final final have quick question about something that i know was a major of the research but wasnt discussed too much. This panel, which is sort of like the entire role of children and how that Going Forward will impact future relations with russia, because eventually, if its tomorrow, a year from now, ten years from now, the war in ukraine will putin will die and there will be some leadership turnover. And maybe itll be someone like zola of another tyrant. But eventually there must be some sort of transition period occurs. And when that does i know through a lot of the research that that youve done will be generations at this point, 20 years at least, of children now young adults who have gone through patriotic, militarized education. If its the more than a Million People that have been through the youth army or the other cadet groups like rumpole, or if it is now, i recently learned the existence of wagner eunuch of wagner group of the young army in schools. But could we show some . Yeah. There we go. Like all of this, this militarized consciousness. This is a poster for the 75th anniversary of the of the victory in World War Two. Oh, thats. How about something from the from the. There we go from from the patriot parks which were created we go oh this by the is the kindergarten demonstrating on the day of the 9th of may. There we go. Terrible. And with these, as everyone can see. Okay, this is a patriot parks that putin created all over the country. I think theres a there there thats favorite. Okay so very much so so this is this is the generation thats growing. Yes. I just saw an item. Showing that the russian schools spend orders of magnitude more on whats known as, the initial military training than they spend on the equipment for their physical cabinets are or chemistry cabinets, tens of millions of dollars im sorry, of of rubles. They are buying kalashnikovs, ak 47. They are buying the mock up hand grenades. The. Starting with the third grade, sometimes even younger i run around the school with with and throw the grenades. This a completely militarized society. Lets not forget also lance what theyre taught in schools again are harking back to my misspent youth. The i in the textbooks history textbooks that we studied in high school stalin was not mentioned, which was of course a huge problem but but he was not mentioned in the newly published. Textbook by guy by the name of madejski, who is to be very appropriately minister of culture, not only stalins mentioned, but stalin is back. He the wise leader of the country. They study his not a word about the gulag, not a word about the great famine of collectivization. And of course nothing about the first two years of the war that that that was new, that the war was newly lost. World war two because a of the purge of of the army and also because of his trust hitler so so stalin his back hes a wise father of the country and most of all he is the great victor in World War Two or as the russian called it, always the great patriotic war. So so is that this is a scary generation and god knows again my hope, corey, is that is that different elites coming to power would might turn even that generation around. You know for any and i know there are lots of people in room who remember august of 91 where tens of came to defend the socalled white house yeltsin and defeated the coup. This these are the same people. Well, i mean, not literally. These are probably the fathers or even grandfathers of of this current generation. But it shows that the russia is not dead to to the ability of democracy in the ability of freedom and the only hope i have is that is a new leaders of will will go back to that to that moment in russian history. Other questions. Yes. Thank you. Im charlie walser from der university. What really you get to see of the economic stuff is beginning to hit a little bit. If you read todays kommersant the cost of renovating your apartment has gone up 40 or 50 of the ministry of health Just AnnouncedSomething Like 400 medicines are no longer going to be making sure that stuff going to trickle down. But what i really want to ask you about is what some of us are calling the putin paradox. The what the paradox of anders austin are two of the 14 authors in a book were calling failure russia under putin. And one of the things that were grappling is the contradiction between the massive corruption and the rebuilding of great russia, of putin himself has got, what, two, 3 trillion after its phenomenal amounts of money. The more you put into the defense industry, the more it goes away. How do we reconcile that seeming contradiction contradiction . Well, harley, i mean that corrupt leaders could strong armies is is that what you think is is the paradox the the whats known as that carter which is a kickback of course and of course lets lets play Yevgeny Prigozhin and hell tell you everything you need to know about corruption in in the in the russian army in the general. As you said i mean if you throw billions of rubles at the Defense Sector you know some part of it is actually effective. The rest are stolen. So, so that that i think is probably probably explains it. We know of of by the way in this in the soviet days i mean military was also among the most corrupt sectors but there was not as much to steal so so that sort of put a limit to it. But i think the key he knows that this is going on again. I think prigozhin spoke from his heart when he pointed out to to immense incompetence and corruption in the higher echelons of of the Russian Armed forces. But i think the the you know the idea here i think for putin to tackle corruption is to tackle one of the foundations of his regime. As i mentioned, you know, he he he discovered that unlike his much soviet predecessor, admired him. He he he realized that could be actually more effective by bribing than by because because it if if if you give them something in they buy or they steal enough to have essentially upper middle class european live or better and you threaten to take it away. Its just as effective or even more effective than terror. Next right here. Thank you very much, kristen foulston. The Huntsville Foundation has the inside of foundation be had to shut down our office. You know, last year after after a conscious attack on the queen. Thanks for this fascinating talk. So my question is why there is no lily of resistance in and within the boston here to putin, how do you explain like, say, the gay who started as a performer, hes now so entrenched in this putin power structure, but putin, when he rose to power, was perceived as someone who had balance, civilizing interests the petersburg, the kgb, yeltsin, the leaders in 19th oligarchs and whatever is he now only want, supported by this kgb elite here, does he have to Balance Power structures anymore. So there is no resistance to putin . And do you see coming from business elites any so so i tried to touch this. Most of them would bribed. Some of them were intimidated and all of them were intimidated and bribed. So so the the that is where you stand. Yes, indeed. He he was again, he was very clever about this. Yes. The coterie around him, the enforcers are all the kgb officers that that were him in leningrad in the mid late seventies. Patrician patricia must him they all of them are actually are are quite in in the top echelon. I think he trusts them the most others as i mentioned after khodorkovsky. I mean you want to rebel and go to through two trials and spend years in jail be my guest. No that is not going to happen. The leap itself, i think the most plausible scenario, i would think would be some catastrophic defeat in ukraine where where they decide that this is something in other words, their coming after us that that not only we sanctioned were sanctioned by the west but but the regime will change and. We will have to answer to it. Remember, in in a in russian history of military defeats of a lead to a lot of domestic change. I mean, the first crimean war. So nicholas, the first dies, his son initiates revolution from above, including, of course, the liberation of the serfs. The problem with the russojapanese war leads to the first constitution, the the setbacks in world war one, the bolshevik revolution, a khrushchev falls from power in part of the embarrassment in cuba and and of course the the morass afghanistan was a was one of the factors in in revolution from above so so if they feel that that not only theyre stuck in ukraine but that things really becoming dicey maybe maybe on the other hand i mean it all depends then forget about bribery then its sheer terror. I mean, remember, stalin gave a very interesting speech at at in june of 1945 for charles. The tribute to the russian people. But the way he said was very interesting. He said, we horrific disasters. We the government made, horrific mistakes in 1941, in 1942. But russian people specifically russian people, had enough trust in the government and enough patience to trust that we would turn the situation around. Now, he was genuinely, from what i could, he was genuinely surprised us, he said. By the way, that any other people would have rebelled and made peace with germany and said, go away because because you dont know how to fight this war. So the question for putin and of course, you know, hes channeling stalin and so many different rhetorical ways is whether the russian people have that patience and that trust. Now, of course, under the of circumstances, the war of, you know, in ukraine is not going to turn in the, you know, existence or crisis of 1941, 1942 of the nazi invasion. But i think the question is still remain how long. Can the russian people trust the government . How long they can bear the so far, not the shame of of the defeat, but what is it if it gets close it and i think and i think you may see that the elites the elites follow follow the people. I think for the most part, certainly in russia rather than the other way around. I think we have time for one last question. Dr. Gaddy, its yours. You walked, right . Right behind you. Read behind it. Charles gati, what a wonderful panel. Thank you so much. Your last chapter, as you summarize, it scares the daylights out of me i mean, im an old guy. I have 11 grandchildren. So my question is deep, is your conviction that your analysis is about correct, that my analysis is what your analysis is about. Nuclear exchange as a possibility or probability. Hows your how strong your conviction . Well, for the question, charles, my professor from columbia university, my beloved professor, the things for the question also, because i need to make a make it more precise, i think that putin will take it to the brink but not the Nuclear Armageddon some some of the some of the russian certainly but even western experts said that he may go for to explode the tactical nuke in a way from from a you know, a a a key Population Center maybe somewhere in estonia, somewhere poland. I mean, horrible enough. But i think that would fall into that that wonderful escalate to deescalate. Dr. That some say exists say doesnt exist but basically when youre desperate detonate a tactical weapon. And of course this is be anywhere from, you know, five kiloton or a third of the hiroshima or up to 100 kilotons and. And and then and then step back and and deescalate everybody steps back. So i dont think it will come to a actually Strategic Nuclear exchange with the united states. I think he will take it as far as possible to get effect that he wants, which lets settle in ukraine. Lets settle here. But but but, you know the the when you know, when you get the book, which i will inscribe to you, youll see theres a wonderful epigraph from margaret, terrific book, let me read it to you. He had reached that moment in his life when a man abandons himself to the demons of his genius, following a mysteries law which bids them either to destroy or outdo himself. And im afraid putin may be reaching this kind of stage. I would like to end on a more hopeful note, which is to point out that our choices can also verys. Strong affect those potential outcomes. And we are doing some things to try and dissuade putin from thinking it would be in his interest. There is much more we can and should do to affect the range of choice that putin, the people around him, and the people who would be caring out any such orders think about the consequences of the choices. And on that cheery note, my friends, thank you first to edward h and helen whose generosity to this is addition is manifold, and were super grateful for the support of our scholarship, and of this book. Second, to all of you for making time to come out and celebrate leons outstanding book. And lastly, to the great leon aron himself. Wont you join me thanking him. [applause] the house and senate recessed for holidays and will be back in the new year for the start of the second session of the 118th congress. The senate convenes january 8 and the house january 9. Both chambers face to make upcoming federal budget funding deadlines to avoid a government shutdown. First on january 19 and the other on february 2. Ready to do the work. Were waiting for the other team the other side the other chamber to come forward with the number we can agree upon. Leader mcconnell and i will think of the best way to get this done quickly. Neither mcconnell do i want to shut down. Follow the progress when Congress Returns on the cspan networks, cspan now our free mobile video app, or anytime online at cspan. Org. Cspan, your unfiltered view of government. A healthy democracy doesnt just look like this. It looks like this, where americans can seeem