The Afghan Government can stand up and be the ones that take care of things in afghanistan. I just want to add something to love this. When i saw the book, mrs. Bush, i am honored as always to be around you and im thankful to the u. S. Afghan womens councils. They have done an incredible job. When i saw the book, it reminded me, took me back 14 years ago. I want to read something to you. The honorable mrs. Bush, i would like to thank you on behalf of afghan men and women for all the work you have supported and the care you have given the afghan women and children. You even went to pyongyang. I went to those days. I gave my first speech in chicago in 2004. 400 americans is as men and women have had to convince many leaders with my speech to believe in afghan women capacity and to fund for the project. After a long speech, i ended with the following sentence with a lot of hope. This is what the afghan woman says. Still after her pain she says i feel like the thunder, the dark days and the storm has left. The sun is up now. I just started blooming like a rose. The rose needs tender loving care to fully bloom. I do not want to die again. Mrs. Bush, through your leadership, you played a major role in water in d. C. By building capacity and today you have recognized a few of the blooming flowers in your book because 14 years ago it was not possible. [applause] eggs, everybody. On behalf of all of us here today on behalf of the u. S. Is to to to peace sent want to thank mrs. Laura bush, ms. Mina sherzoy and of course mr. Steve hadley, our chair. Thank you for my death after 37 years of war it will take a long time to fully emerge in the conflict but that there are extraordinary sense of progress and much of. Thank you for your collective passion and inspiration this afternoon as we look at the pathway forward. Mrs. Bush, special thanks for what youve done for afghan women and women around the world and thank you for bringing this beautiful powerful stories to all of us with your wonderful new book, voices of hope. Its been an honor to host everybody today. I want to ask everybody to please stay seated by the panel departs stage. Please join me in one more round of thanks and applause for her wonderful panel. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] welcome, everyone. Im rebecca doing him from the university of virginia and im absolutely delighted to be moderating this panel today. Two journalists and authors who are both currently living in alta more i know of come down to share yours or his wife asked. We are going to be on a tight schedule which i am responsible for keeping. We will look forward to about 15 or 20 minutes presentation from each author and an ample time for questions. I would like to request that everyone silent their cell phones. I would also like to comment initially think im so excited about the panel and the other events, like to remind everyone that the virginia festival of the book is very pleased to keep most events very and if youd like to help with that, please consider a donation. The request is to please evaluate the session. The festival is always working to improve its offering. Finally, we will have books for sale here and in local bookstores throughout the festival and we hope youll be interested. Without further ado, i would like to introduce sonia shah to my far left. Sonia shah has written the book under discussion today, pandemic as well as other books. She is a prizewinning author and science journalist. Her work has appeared in the new york times, the wall street journal, Foreign Affairs and she has announced and made ted talk on eliminating malaria if you want to take a look at that also. She focuses on the intersection of science, politics and human rights and will be discussing her new books with us today. We also have stabbed to, who is a former political reporter for the Washington Bureau of the Houston Chronicle and she actually left newspapers to pursue an interest close to my heart and the hearts of many in this room, microbiology. And she won in 2005 the u. S. Center for Disease Control and she has a masters in journalism from the university of maryland and also a masters in science writing from hopkins where she is now a teacher of science journalism. She lives in baltimore with her husband and twin daughters who have believed just joined us. We are delighted to have you here. Again, welcome. Please are member to keep the cell phones quiet. I know we are going to have a fascinating discussion i would like to turn the microphone over to sonya. Hi, is this on . So what i wanted to do with this latest book, this is my fourth book and i wanted to look at how it is that microbes, which are these little microscopic things that have no independent locomotion cause these highly as deadly events that we call pandemics. Over the past 50 years weve had about 300 infectious pathogens that if either newly emerged or reemerged into new places theyve never been seen before. Ebola in west africa never seen before. We have zeke a virus now, has never been seen here before. Novel kinds of Avian Influenza, mosquito borne illnesses, tick. , highly antibiotic resistant pathogens. What i tried to distract the origins of the same from what i found is a lot of them coming out of the environment. About 60 of the pathogens come out of the bodies of animals. Over 70 come from wildlife. What is happening is that their populations expand from industrial activities expand, we are disrupting and they demanded destroying a lot of wildlife habitat. This means we lose a lot of other species. The ones that remain come into closer contact with us and with this novel intimate contact allows the microbes that live in their bodies to spill over into our bodies. So from bats they got ebola and marburg and nico virus. For Brandon Smith got monkey pod , bone disease. For monkeys and chimps for monkeys in chance they got hiv, malaria, probably zika virus. Influenza, et cetera. These pathogens are moving into human populations and allowing the great opportunities to amplify in our cities. The process of urbanization that first started in the night in century is really reaching its peak now. By 2030, the majority of the human population will be urban and we are going to be living in giant adidas. They wont be cities echo of a charlottesville. Cities like when rovira and free sound. A lot of ad hoc development. A lot of slums. Poor infrastructure. Weve are to see new pathogens take advantage of this. Ebola is a great example where it had Ebola Outbreak since the 1970s but they were always rather small and selflimited. One of the reasons why it is those viruses never infected a place more than a few hundred thousand inhabitants. What happened at the end of 2013 is ebola virus emerged in kidney and within a few weeks was able to reach three Capital Cities with the combined population of nearly 3 million that is an important reason why it became such a huge conflict where we lost 11,000 or more people. More people died in the outbreak and all the previous Ebola Outbreaks combined. Similarly, zeke a virus since at least 1940s, possibly before that. It was in africa and asia, carried by a mosquito that mostly good animals. So we didnt have a lot of infections in humans. What has happened recently is zika virus has arrived in the americas for it is a fixed and in urban populations in tropical areas and that means we have massively asked any territories of this mosquito that thrives in cities. Philistine human garbage, can breathe and a drop of water. All of our plastic garbage, little rain gets in them and this mosquito is a very efficient carrier of diseases because it only bites people. We are not only crowding our cities together. They are also crowding animals together. Its not just about people. Its also about livestock. Now we have more animals under domestication than the last 10,000 years of domestication until 1960 combined. This is because our populations are getting more wealthy, getting bigger and as we do that we demand more protein than me and our diets. A lot of animals are living in the equivalent of slums. So we have 2 billion People Living in slums by the year 2030 but we are to have value for millions of animals living in slums and those are direct arms where we have a million or more animals crowded really close together exposed to each others fluids and excreta appearing this is one reason why we have one increasing the of Avian Influenza. These Avian Influenza viruses are moved to. They dont make google sick at all. They are fall captive chickens and birds. They can replicate really quickly. They can spread faster and often become more virulent. This is why weve seen increasing frequency of these Avian Influenza emerges world the wild flowers live. Besides her dancing way too fast. Is there something we can do about this . We are about five slides ahead. Thank you. This last one last year we had avian and walesa in the giant Poultry Farms reached north america for the first time, cause the biggest outbreak of animal disease in u. S. History. We are also getting this is what happens. Thank you. Technical my goodness. There we go. We still have a sanitary crisis of human waste and our planet right now. With 2. 6 billion people around the world with no access to modern sanitation. They are still living in the equivalent of 19th century slums. But we also have now is a new kind of sanitary crisis about livestock excreta. I livestock are now having 7 billion tons of waste every year. This is far more than croplands could possibly absorb. Farmers are collecting them and things like this, essentially giant of mind. If untreated animal waste. So when it rains or winter storms, and this is one reason why we have an increase in problem with fear that forms of equality. There is history and producing a call live with one half of all cattle are infected with this. Doesnt really make the cows sick but because cattle manure contaminates so much food and water, we have about 70,000 americans coming down with his derelict form of e. Coli every year. So we are driving these pathogens inter populations and then of course would carry them around at the most efficient way possible which is through our flight network. We dont have just a few airports in a futile thing they have hundreds of airports in small towns and cities and hundreds of thousands of connections between them, which means that a pathogen breaks out in one part of the world that can rapidly spread to the rest of the world as a simulation of a flu pandemic on a graphic map. You can see how quickly it disperses. If you plot the same pandemic on a map like this, which is all the cities connected by direct flight, you can see when it comes up that it will resolve into a series of ways that you can actually predict where and when a city will get infected by looking at the number of direct flights in effect been infected cities. Besides theyre going fast. So one of the things i did in my book is not on the reporting to look at where emerging pathogens are coming from and i went to haiti and south china and new delhi and elsewhere, but i also looked at the history of our most powerful pandemics. The one i focused on la scala road because its one of our most successful pathogens that cause seven global pandemics and the first emerged in the 19th century. We think of cholera as a disease of poverty and it is that today. When it first emerged, this s a map of epidemic in 1832 of cholera in 1832. Dozens of people died in this happened again and again over the course of the 19th century. It wasnt just new york city. London, paris, new orleans, and Member Service are played by the 19th century. What i wanted to look at how it was responded and how that could shed light on the challenges we face today as we face our road era of new pandemics. Back in the 1832 we can show that. Doctors collected this data. It shows a pretty clear picture. Coming down the hudson river, an area canal heading straight for new york city. However, nobody in the city of new york want to quarantine the rivers. This is the engine of economic growth. This is the time of the robber barons huge amounts of commerce coming down waterways. They refuse to quarantine the rivers. Just make it stay there. I dont know how to do it. My powerpoint wants to give you the taco bias tells. Its very annoying. They didnt want to quarantine any of the waterways. And they didnt. Doctors went along with this. Looks like they come down the waterways, but in fact its not. Cholera is caused by stinky errors by decomposing matter and organic material. This is based in a 2000 old hippocratic theory. They said its not the waterways. You know whos to blame . Its the poor, the immigrant, the drunks. Koller came down the came down waterways and affected new york city again and again over the course of most of the night and century. Theres actually companies that were making money selling can terminate in water to new yorkers yorkers in the 19th century. The epicenter, the epidemics of cholera in europe at the time is pictured here and this is a slum that if anyone has a number of film gangs of new york, that was about fivepoint. Very crowded, about 77,000 people per square climate or an six times more crowded than tokyo is today. Islam had been built on what was once a pond. The pond had been filled up with garbage and then built on top of that. There was a new sewer system and make century new york. Theyre one of the girls who had full text the human waste is allowed to spill over into the alleys, into peoples strike in water, and down into the groundwater. Of course in this area the groundwater underneath in particular would be extremely contaminated because the ground underneath the slow line, filled with garbage. It wasnt bedrock like the rest of manhattan. The company that the state of new york chartered to deliver Drinking Water to the people of new york rather than cap onstream sources of water which they knew at that time would be cleaner, fresher and taste better, the cap do well in the middle of islam. They delivered back to one or that the residents of new york city and they did it over the course of centuries through repeated epidemics of cholera. The company that did this because they want to save money. The reason they wanted to save money is because they wanted to start a bank and the company the bank was called the bank of the manhattan come to me. Does anyone here know what the bank of the Manhattan Company is called today . Jpmorgan chase. Yes, thank you. So all in the story just by telling you how cholera vanish in new york city because its as sharp as. Eventually new yorkers moved from there to have their in the river. But they didnt do it because they wanted to upload the Public Health. They didnt do because people were screaming for better water, which they knew would make them more healthy. They did it because the local brewers want a better tasting water for their beers. They felt like they are putting them at a disadvantage to the brewers in philadelphia. Finally they moved the water intake and vanished in new york city after that. I century pandemics and it can spread throughout the country and throughout europe as well. The question i have this of course we can do a lot better today in our era of emerging pathogen. This story to me says its not as if theyre really a matter of type allergy. Its about whether we have the political will to do it. Thank you so much for listening. [applause] now we are going to welcome karen masterson, author of the malaria project. Im going to switch with you so i could manage the pc. [inaudible conversations] i came to Global Health issues by accident. I was actually a political reporter. Both environmental reporter for that for the philadelphia inquirer. I was looking for Something Different and stumbled upon records that talked about how researchers during world war ii and affected hospital patients with malaria so they could test new drugs on them. This was shocking to me and i couldnt find a whole lot of historical treatment of this. As i kept pulling thread and searching through boxes in the archives, i realized i was in uncharted territory and had to tell a story. I didnt know much about world war ii, malaria, bioethics, but i got up to speed because this is a fascinating story wanted to tell. I wanted these sites to be deleted because i is 65 tear for 15 minutes. The boxes look like this. The records were stamped top secret because its a secret project. The World Without war and nobody had a good malaria drug before normandy, if you had a weapon you have a leg up on all the battles. Our government, the Roosevelt Administration to open the spigot for this project by 50 universities, most of the American Drug companies to come together and find a bomb the wartime science project including the men had project. Their reports were that can be published so they were red dyed the lead investigators in the end to John Hopkins University and there they meant every month so they could compare notes. I figured out how to not be totally judgmental of the scientists who did this work. I was taught that by this man, bill collins and i got to go down and sit next to this band and listen to his story. He had been around long enough to infect State Hospital patients with malaria so you could study the disease and test drugs on their infections. The problem that was you couldnt go malaria in a petri dish. It was the mic back. You have to have live infections and as malaria dried up in Northern Europe and the northern states of the united states, it was hard to come by. If youre infected people you could study it and he called those the good old days. I said you know youre talking to a reporter, right . The u. S. Is here. Those are the good old days. Now he had to infect monkeys and they were difficult and live and they try to bite him the monkey malaria can extrapolate all that well and they had to run all the new vaccine studies off on this monkeys first. So he had a roomful of archives that no one had ever seen before from world war ii and the years immediately following world war ii and he used the Data Collected from this and occupation to inform todays va