The stage author of the definitive study on soviet russian famine of 1921 to 23, the big show on the American Relief expedition to soviet the big show on bola land, the American Relief expedition to soviet russia in the family of 1921. He also curated two exhibitions dealing with the famine. The 1922 show here entitled deliverance, america and the famine in soviet russia 192123, and at the Hoover Institution that just closed this year, brad plus medicine, american famine relief and soviet russia, 192123. The informative exhibit catalog for the later exhibition is available through the Hoover Institution press. And i would encourage all of you to go online and get a copy. Youll never think of cobbler oil the same way. [laughing] is also a lecturer in history and International Relations at stanford university, a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and your moderator. Please welcome bert patenaude. [applause] so, thank you, tom, for a very generous introduction. Thanks for putting together this panel, which as you are about to see, very interesting. And thanks to you for inviting me to participate. So, and thanks to all of you for coming out today. We have three very interesting speakers, three historians who have a knack for bringing a fresh point of view to familiar topics. Three, one might say, revisionists in the best sense of the word. They question the conventional wisdom. They put it to the test. They force us to question our assumptions about historical events, the way things turn out is not, the remind us, necessarily the way things had to turn out. And, of course, when your subject is Herbert Hoover, and that is to say the hoover of his presidency and postpresidency, being something of a contrarian goes with the territory. And thats a characteristic feature of our three speakers today. So what im going to do is im going to introduce the first two speakers. The third speaker apple introduced after the break that will follow the first two talks. First up is justus doenecke, an emeritus professor of history at the new college of florida where he taught from 19692005. Justice has devoted much of the past 35 years to research and writing on the subject of american isolationism in the years 19311935. His two most recent books, nothing less than war, 2011, and more precious than peace, 2022, deal respectively with americas entry into world war i and its role as a belligerent in that war. Justus received the Arthur S Link prize for documentary editing by the society for historians of American Foreign relations for a book he edited on the american first committee. His book, foreign on the horizon, the challenge to American Intervention 19391941, won the Herbert Hoover book award in the year 2000. Its about american antiinterventionism at the outset of world war ii. The program says, justus probably best known for his writings on the manchurian crisis of 193132, and that will be the focus of his talk today. The second speaker, sean mcmeekin, is the francis lording professor of european history and culture at bard university. Sean, a prolific author, his most recent book, stallings war, a new history of world war ii shifts the focus, the usual focus, from hitler to Joseph Stalin and his war aims. Sean also published in 2011 a book called the russian origins, of the first world war, in which he, taking this revisionist point ofie view, looks to st. Petersburg and russia for the cause of the outbreak of the first world war, not so much to germany and austria as the standard textbooks do. Interesting is that the paperback of the book came out in 2013 just in time to join the abundant crop of books that came up that year marking the centennial of the beginning of world war i. So prominently reviewed, a brilliant stroke for the publisher. And then just a few years later, how does he do this . In 2017 he published a book book called the Russian Revolution, a new history. And again, 2017, the centennial of the Russian Revolution of 1917. Sean is the recipient of several book prices, the arthur good site book prize, the norman the tomlinson junior book prize, and the barber joe the book prize among other honors. Hes a compelling writer and even if you disagree with the point of view, with the argument in the book, you find the writing very sort of muscular and draws you in. Hes one of the best writers in the field of russian soviet history today. It also must be said, and conclusion, that sean is a graduate of stanford university. He got his ba in history there, class of 1996. You can applaud if you want, but first lets call it to the stage, please join in getting a warm welcome to justus doenecke. [applause] well, thank you so much, bert. Bert. Tomnt to begin by thankingan schwartz and the staff of the Hoover Library for the privilege of offering this presentation. Tom has gone way beyond the call of duty in meeting my airline schedule, ungodly hours, Mike Research goes back to making seven when tom felton and bobme would with a major archivists. Lets turn to september 18, 1931, when about 10 p. M. Japanese railroad guards claimed to have heard an explosion on the south manchurian rea road. Explosion took place about thre. The damage from this explosion was quite negligible. A train ran over the tracks soon afterwards. Some call it though the opening shot of world war ii. With the Japanese Army in manchuria known as the quantum army, using the incident to occupy the mentoring city, it also occupied cities 160 miles northeast, 120 miles southeast. Thee japanese Prime Minister immediately ordered his war minister to do Everything Possible to stop the conflict. In the war minister did ask the army to hold to make no further advances. Moreover, he promised the civilian cabinet he would restrain the Japanese Army, and he kept repeating this pledge for days, for weeks, for months, repeating it until it was obvious that even the Central Command couldnt control its own forces in manchuria, forces that are quite popular, quite powerful in their own right, forces that are really an army within an army. Either way, the Japanese Army itself operated independently of the cabinet, as was the soaring german emperor, is responsible only to the emperor. In 1919 a regulation gave it authority to use, and i quote, all means necessary to protect the south Manchurian Railroad that is not hold anything back and the army took the degree at its word. The army in drawing up this blueprint for manchuria does not consult, yet does not consult the chief of the general staff or the minister of war or the foreign secretary or the Prime Minister. The Junior Officers in the Japanese Army are determining japanese policy. The civilians, the top brass are relatively helpless in the whole matter. So look at what the situation is. At the very time when tokyo wants the Japanese Army to pull back, indeed at the very time the war minister is reassuring the civilian government that japan will soon get out, the Kwantung Army is not only doing it, it is outlining plans for public under puppet regime. Only the government in tokyo can do is make your promises. The japanese cabinet promises the world that japan which in return to the Railroad Zone as soon as its rights were secured. And the this is a all of files, all of these gestures does not hinder the Kwantung Army one bit. In other words, the army ignores this is an government. In most countries this wouldve been grounds for courtmartial. No army can run amok of a civilian command. Well, what about chinese resistance . The troops of the local chinese warlord were weak on paper they greatly outnumber the japanese, but they were too disorganized to offer seriousta resistance ad chaconne check out nominal role of chinas olympic hes too busy fighting rebellions in central china. So the Kwantung Army keeps pushing it. There is no effective obstacle in its path. Within two days of further defies the civilian government, the general staff, for occupying the town that is 2125 miles northeast of martin. Two daysay after that the kwantg army decide to set up and independent manchurian regency, i kind of puppet region who would at some local authority. This is the socalled last emperor if youve ever seen the movie. The last of the dynasty with a delightful name of henry. But japan would dominate this new regime. If we control the defense of the country would control the Foreign Policy of the country. If we control the transportation, the communication. The country would have its own name. It would have its own currency, its own postage. Without its own bureaucracy. But every official had the japanese advisor anddv this advisor made the real decisions. And many japanese tea manchuria as crucial. Japan is an depression which, with most of the rest of the world. Manchuria has much of what japan wants. Its got lumber. Its got cold. I am. Its a steal. Its got green. It owns thewh south Manchurian Railroad which is really a Huge Development company. Its not a simple choochoo train, okay . By december 1 the new japanese cabinet and ad new ruling party comes in the power. The party had endorsed expansion in china but most of the ministry, most of the government is military. So the indication is clear, japan is in manchuria tuesday. And for several weeks both the league of nations and the u. S. Believed japans promises that they would get out. They received the promises in good faith. The league takes a few weak actions, makes a few general efforts to show its concern. For example, asked all fighting interleague manchuria, and as as china and japan to mr. For relations and a thought japans retreat would only be a a matr of time. The League Season reason to invoke its own covenant. I document the call for coercive measures in thent event of international aggression. It sees no reason to invoke the kelloggbriand pact of 1928 renounced war in the language of the pack as an instrument of national policy. In 1920 Frank Kellogg had been u. S. Secretary of state and the French Foreign minister. Herbert Hoover Aubrey has his handss full. So americas policy differs very little from the league. The great crash had taken place close to two earlier part by the fall of 1931, the president at domestic problems in spades. He is facing massive unemployment. He isne facing failing banks and businesses. He is facing a plummeting construction industry. Is facing a declining Gross National product. In short, he has to wrestle with the great depression. And furthermore cooper has bad relations with the press, with powerful insurgents within his own republican party, and with a house of representatives which is democratic. Sometime in the latter half of 1931 he wrote a memo. Neither are our obligations to china nor our interests know our dignity require us to go to war over these questions. These acts do not imperil the freedom of the american people, the economic or moral fiber of our people. I do not propose to sacrifice one American Life for anything short of this. At any rate, he continued, the japanese would never be able to, and i quote, japan if i china, and if they stay long enough they will bein absorbed or expelled by the chinese. At one point he told an aide well just between ourselves it would be, it would not be a bad thing if mr. Jack, his language come should go into manchuria with two thorns on his side, china and the bolsheviks or he would have enough to keep them busy for a while. And hoover realizes that the u. S. Lacks any military means of coercion. The american navy, for example, is far too weak to restrain japan. Now hoover secretary of state is henry stimson. Henry lewis stimson, and stimson is a very epitome of the american establishment. Not just a diplomatic establishment but the establishment, three. His ancestors just didnt fight in the american revolution. King philips war. Stimson itself graduated from an exclusive andover prep school,ar from jail where he was skull and bones, from Harvard Law School in 1897 his partner in the firm of another prominent secretary of state elliott brood, in 1910 he runs unsuccessfully for governor of new york as a republican candidate. Is also President Task secretary of war. 1917 he joined the Army Fighting as a colonel in world war i. He commands and Army Battalion in france. In 1928 hes governor general of the philippines and in septembel friend of the Japanese Foreign minister. So at first as with the powers of the league of nations, stimson is confident that the japanese civilian government can quell what he terms and army mutiny. Besides, stimson thought the japanese had some legitimate grievances aboutut china. He thought the chinese had not been terribly responsible in some of their actions. And on september 27 stimson wrote this in h his diary, which is at yale university. I want to let the japanese know that we are watching them and at the same time do it in such a way which will help foreign minister shintaro who was on the right side and not play into the hands of any nationalist agitators. He does not denounce e japanese action publicly condemnation he feels will only jeopardize chances for peace. He opposes chinas call for an inquiry by the league of nations. He opposes suggestions from the european powers that an american sit the League Council. He refuses to invoke the Howard Bryant anti war which had outlawed war a means of instrument of national policy. He some belligerence to withdraw from the combat. He expresses a hope that japan and china could negotiate without outside interference and all of this. Stimson has president hoovers strong backing. Stimson refuses also to invoke what is called the nine power pact of 22. Now this is an agreement of the nine major powers in the west plus japan that pledges to respect chinas independence and territorial integrity. And the pact also calls for respecting the principle the economic open door. It was an integral part of what historian akira aryeh calls a washington system in some ways a counterpart to the system in europe established in 1919 it was signed and in 1925 in locarno, switzerland, you are seeking to stabilize great power relations in the pacific. You are seeking to sustain the relative status quo. So notice how cautious stimson is he certainly is seeking to confront japan. In midoctober, he and allow a minor u. S. Diplomat to sit with the lead counsel and even in the lead does not accuse japan of violating the kellog pact it just does what its done already it has both nations to stop and it finally sets a for japan to get out november but japan ignores the november 16th deadline. It just keeps pressing. It just keeps penetrating deeper into manchuria. Stimson, by the way, had to support the league deadline. He said that america retains, and i quote, complete independence of judgment at every step. Now, the french and british governments acting in individual capacities put genevas decision aside. Obrien writes a few notes to the japanese, but they just keep pressing forward. And when the League Council does in geneva at november 16th, and when it finds its deadline overlooked, ignored, stimson sends the former Vice President of the u. S. Charles dawes to consult League Leaders informally. And as the league cannot get the japanese out of manchuria and the u. S. Cant get the japanese out of manchuria doors, a league call for an independent investigation to look at the problem. Its an oh trick. Its been used by university faculties, by university from time to time. It gives the appearance of action it doesnt change a god blessed thing. In fact, it was a japanese who originally came up with the suggestion and close to a year later the league did issue a report its the lytton report it offered sensible suggestions of Japanese Special rights interests. The general principle of chinese sovereignty. But japan simply ignored its suggestions and i want to note that its only japanese conquest of cho that turned stimson around that makes them seek for methods of coercion for on january 2nd, 1932, japanese entered what is called chin cho. Now jin. So jin chow is 120 miles southwest of monckton. Its the last outpost of chinese resistance. And shinto is a city with huge residents. There is even a pretense for the japanese government to they are protecting anything here. The chinese are now retreating behind the great wall. Obviously, stimson is attempt to conciliate japan proved futile. Hes forced to consider stronger measures he had drank conciliation. He had gone slow confrontation. And now he saw his policy fail. So japan has to be shown and shown formally that america would not tolerate behavior, that america would not accept her actions. Now stimson decides to meet japans action by withholding diplomatic recognition from Japanese Aggression. This seems like a very shrewd way of doing things. You are protesting against japans. Youre saying the u. S. Will not supp