Transcripts For CSPAN2 Soner Cagaptay Discusses The New Sult

[inaudible conversations] good afternoon. Welcome to the Washington Institute. I am robbed that last comment there and im delighted to welcome you to this special event. Before you begin, if i can ask everyone to take your iphones or sam sans or whatever and turn them on island because we are broadcasting live on cspan 1. Please watch your language, speaking clear tones of people around the world can hear us today. You are free to to eat as much as you like because we are eager to get the message of todays discussion out far and wide. It is not often that one can time the publication of the new book so precociously to an International Event or perhaps i should say its not often one can arrange an International Referendum in a faraway country to be time perfectly with the publication of a new book. But as it turns out, we have today this confluence of events. We have the referendum and hurt you in turkey that although the results and process where provocative and remain controversial, im sure youre going to hear more about that. The result seems to be to elevate the existing president of turkey into an even higher for elevated position. That one might be able to call the new sultan. Surprisingly enough, that is the title of this new book by the Washington Institute new program, soner cagaptay, the new Sultan Erdogan and the crisis of modern turkey. Brandon l. Right away we know that the subtitle of the Outstanding New work suggests in the subject of todays discussion is what type of crisis . How lasting a crisis . A crisis at home, crisis abroad, crisis getting worse were crisis Getting Better now for the provocation and controversy that there may even be some clarity about the direction of turkish leadership. And to talk about these questions, first i am going to be quite delighted to welcome to the podium the author of the new sultan, my colleague at the fellow in the two, soner cagaptay. And then we have an outstanding array of turkish expertise on the panel and i say look around the audience, a remarkable array of turkish expertise within these four walls. But after return to stoner soner, im delighted to welcome gonul tol, adjunct professor at George Washington University Institute George Washington University Institute for middle east studies here in washington. And then well turn to the Amberin Zaman, as a Public Policy fellow at the middle east program, veteran journalist writing for the monitor. 15 years turkish correspondent for the economist. Really delighted to have this panel, which bring such indepth knowledge of the current political situation and the likely direction of politics in turkey and special interest to this audience of course the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship in this new era. Weve already seen the first sign of the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship of course with President Trumps outrage to the newly reempowered president erdogan just yesterday. I will now call the podium by kali soner. Soner has been at the institute for many years. Hes the author of several books on turkish domestic and Foreign Policy. One of soners greatest claims to fame is there is a generation of American Foreign Service Officers who have gone on to serve america abroad in turkey who have passed through soner is a set instructor of american diplomats abroad and i think we are better served for that, that americas representatives in turkey have the benefit of soners wisdom. Thats one of the things we do at the institute is not just a pine in books, author and television, but to do what we can to improve the quality of American Foreign policy by such things as teaching american diplomats. I am really delighted to have soner. Soner, the podium is yours. Thank you, rob. Im so pleased to see my friends and colleagues from around town. They really appreciate you out here. I also want to thank Amberin Zaman and gonul tol for joining me. If you havent seen it yet, gonul had an excellent oped on the referendum then. A frequent commentator very fishy is that ive been a follower of her work for nearly two decades. Im very pleased both with me at this panel today. I also wanted to start of course by thinking president Tayyip Erdogan farwell timing the referendum with the launch of my book. I couldnt have done it without them. Literally and figuratively. This is obviously critical time in turkish history. I want to talk first about my book, the new sultan. I decided to write this book in june in the original idea was i would write it over a year. It would be edited sometime this spring and published in the mix somewhere. As i was writing the book ,com,com ma the editors reached out to me and asked me to pull up the deadline i agreed, saying that it coming back from the beach and i guess, christmas in december, form a period and then it was edited and copyedited in proofread typeset and printed in the last three months. There you go, it in my hand, trained 10. Very proud of the book but i want to thank once again a number of people to whom i of gratitude. First of all, i boss rob satloff because he is my boss. Thank you, rob. The institute and my colleagues come a great place to work and probably the best intellectual. I enjoyed tremendously my tenure here. And mikey to be surrounded by so many smart people in colleagues as well as research assistant. I have been last in the last decade and a half by a very Impressive Group of interns and research assistant. Some of them in this room. You guys are both in the book. Thank you. The biggest banks goes to foia. What you get up for a so i can embarrass you . You deserve a round of applause. Thank you. She was with me at every stage of the writing of this book. I hope i did not drive her crazy. They are buried with me. We went through every sentence together to the instances i would tell his sentence and she finish it. Have a look at that typo . Yes and i fixed it. I should also mention i have dedicated this book to the loving memory of my mother. Was born into a workingclass family went to uniform a phd. My parents have raised me and my siblings deserve gratitude and this goes to my moms memory. What i wrote it and what its really about. Ill go to my colleagues and have a good discussion on. All in turkish politics as a student for nearly two decades every time it in the last 15 years have been at the institute analyzing and writing turkey. For those of you who follow my work, youll find traces of our discussion in this book. In many ways, the new sultan follows my previous book as rob has mentioned, the rise of turkey. I looked at turkeys Economic Growth currently Prime Minister and the development party. After having to be as a weakness for Economic Growth in the last decade that after being transformed, it transformed politically turkey politically. I think erdogan went to make sure and be a great power. The path to that poster becoming an advanced economy. Erdogan is make and sell cars. Turkey has to become a hub for google antipasti that goes through an open society and a liberal v. I argued in my book, the homer was to get to that of the society, economy and open society to the new liberal democratic order, one that would provide for freedom in the two halves of turkey that ill discuss that in a minute that is freedom of religion or the religious path and freedom from religion for the secular half and that this new constitution with provide broad liberty for all citizen. I concluded that the perennial secular religious tension in the bird of the kurdish problem inside and outside of the country, turkey within our, avoid idling, economy and become a great power. I dont think erdogan wrote my book, so i wrote this one now, the crisis of turkey. That may tell you where its heading. The book is a story of the consolidation in turkey since 2003 when he became Prime Minister. Attract various steps. Happy to look at it in the q a. I argued that erdogan has become as unassailable meaning hes the most powerful turk. The problem is half of turkey loves him and the other half of turkey looks and and that is the crisis in which turkey has found up as a result of erdogans trajectory. But its more a erdogan wants to shape turkey in his own image. So i suggest that is following what i call the editors motto. In the early 20th century, he set up a modern state and initiated an aside image using state power including education policy at the secular western europeans society. Erdogan wants to use the motto but of course hes taking a cue from the countrys founder but he went to both emulate and replace. Of course he does not share other turks values, just methods of is topdown social engineering you want to use state power once again including educational policy to shape turkey in his own image in a very different than a country that would therefore become in erdogans vision to the core islamic, religious and middle eastern and conservative. But if they topdown method that i think erdogan aspiring out of turkey. Erdogan is a problem. Erdogan has a democratic mandate for should say he had one until this sunday. There is widespread consensus that election process is not fair and emerging consensus there were irregularities during the voting. Erdogan has suggested to move forward. We are not going back to the election. So he had a mandate and question her half of the country that doesnt report had with deep societal polarization and does not alleviate it and exacerbate the divide. Turkeys memento, therefore it would be proerdogan camp. I also argue its unlikely the Erdogan Turkey has email, domain experts administering. I see some of my friends and farmers in each of the state department to discuss this many times you do very complicated question of political, ethnic religious and social groups and its going to impose its vision on the entire country. We saw this in sundays referendum. Near majority if not a majority of turks voted against it and whats more importantly we have a map of turkey on their. They go. You can see on the map an overwhelming number of turkish provinces along the coast of northwest representing an overwhelming percentage of turkeys gdp voted against him. He last assembled. Our three large cities. A symbol of his home city. Which i track in my book in 1994. And why they gave them the benefit of the doubt so is five obviously but more importantly as well as losing in the kurdish area, has lost istanbul including his own neighborhood in a symbol. This is Significant Development on the entire society Going Forward. I argued that the turkey is too large demographically and economically complicated politically and it entirety. Despite erdogan suffers to create a crony capitalist instincts, which controlled economic clout. But overall democrats and values. It will be hard to move forward. That may look no trajectories that i highlighted my book Going Forward. I see three to reject or is moving forward and i am going to the food looking at press referenda which observes referendum as well. The first is the current affairs. Deeply polarized society in its half of the country, conservative, islamists and nationalists, three groups who believe that turkey is having and the other half, a coalition of opposition figures, socialist , liberal muslims who believe that turkey is power. This is the best case in my view fortunately going over to see permanent state of crisis that turkey is secondary. There is a chance that he might become even more autocratic Going Forward. Theres a chance he might and democracy going for. That is a second project tree. The third is an extension of this i can societal polarization coupled with attacks from the right from the far left. Together with nefarious neighbors that surround turkey from russia to be assigned treated to regime. That is the scenario we need to hash out for you. I really want to turn now and look at the Foreign Policy challenges because we havent discussed again. I spent a lot of time in the book about how rush of course is the nemesis that keeps coming despite the fact the russians are friend lay. They are making up the deploying troops in setting up a nonclay which is allied with the pkk. The u. S. Policy also works with ipg, but only i says. It is surrounded by assad regime, turkey basque rebels turkey back to rebels. Going forward, russias going to be erdogans nemesis as well as a most feared enemy. But does this mean erdogan is coming to the western world . He is not. Both the western European Union became a punching bag in the runup to the referendum and this is going to continue. Theres a lot to do with the next step, yet he has become a president that he also wants to obviously come up. He has to win those elections before the parliament. Something interesting happened in the last election. Some of the voters of the nationalist action party, which is a smaller faction in the Turkish Parliament oppose about 10 in the referendum and some of them voted the referendum. Hairsplitting. The foot is happening where borders in anatolia are flipping for erdogan and many voters in the coastal provinces have large cities are flipping again erdogan. That is music to the ears because they can solidify the popularity with voters flocking to his party. This is an ultra nationalist party. He also suggests that they not only string in an mhp will fail turkey pie 10 electoral threshold. When that happens, akp a supermajority in the parliament with the little as 45. I think that is the rule Going Forward. That means ultranationalist and policy issues on the European Union. I anticipate major problems. Hes just suggested he might want to bring back Capital Punishment would end up with turkey being kicked out of your. The highest good of the country. Turkish defense will not have access to that and it changes the political dynamics in the country because he controls the chorus. I also anticipate a hard nationalist policy line towards u. S. Cooperation with why pg because that is in line with the hardline policy on the kurds in general to make sure that voters dislike for him in the referenda become permanent akp voters. That is his game Going Forward. I have provided you with so much doom and gloom. I want to bring some good news, so there is a poor trajectory for turkey. Ive given you three in my book. The full trajectory exclude erdogan. It is because of him, but despite him. Thanks dan this is a middleclass society. Turkey has grown. Its a better. Citizen are better off than before. My previous book that i like most of the rest of turkey went erdogan came to power, infant mortality rate was comparable to prewar syria and now it is comparable to spain. Now they live like the spanish. That is why they are voting for erdogan. I also argued that its growth has built a middleclass base and and nothing makes it very middleclass demands. It is along the mediterranean, e. G. It seemed that is that you can remember rightparen. That is a good sign Going Forward. I dont want to get carried away with the case for liberal turkey because number one, the opposition of course is an extremely divided one. Its very divided. It includes turkish and kurdish nationalists. Secular and conservatives here sent their right and center left. Sometimes the gap between them is wider than the gap between them and erdogan. Go back to the leadership issue. They lack a charismatic leader. Conservative, islamist turks have their own endquotes. That is until the day that such a man or woman emerges who can make a case for liberal turkey. Liberal turkey would have a constitution that would provide freedom of religion and freedom from religion simultaneously. That would provide row liberties for all individual liberties including cultural liberties than the current. Until that law might have remained deeply worried about turkeys future. I do think that while liberal turkey remains, it is thought both given the Economic Transformation that turkey has gone under. Interface to him that im going to write my next book as well. Thank you, everybody for coming. I appreciate it. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. First of course, congratulations. I think he is one of the most productive in town who makes us look lazy and my boss loves you. Aside that i do enjoy reading your book. But of course, when i picked up the book, the first thing came to my mind was which sultan . So i think at this point after the referendum to come and many of us can live with this reformer, but what about a truly authoritarian ruler. The book is a great job of opening a no into the psyche of erdogan. This is a narrative of 1800 which resonates very well among the constituent and beyond. Is showing us interaction between ideology and the reactions to it. So that is why particulaparticula rly enjoyed reading the chapters on kurdish nationalism and islamism, both reactions to the ideology. But i think turkey right now theres been a postislamist era. And one would expect this year or two to embrace liberal values because they are both radical authoritarian ideologies. The best postislamist era is not truly embracing liberalism values on the opposite is actually hot anime. Ive soner mentioned in the book, there is now a growing middleclass in turkey and they are demanding middleclass values. So this is striking because at a time when there is a growing middleclass in turkey, they are not demanding middleclass values. Instead, there is a growing authoritarianism and i think it is because they resent inherently authoritarian and political culture. Some might blame for being essentialist, but i believe that is at the heart of the issue here. I think the original sin of turkeys political c