If you havent already done so please remit or corrupt or silence your cell phone. Also those improve the vessel furniture by filling out a survey. The information we collect helps us improve the festival from year to year. There are also book sales over here to the right for we can do the check and cash, paypal, cash . Great. On to the event. Dr. Hanson is the author of the book the age of em love and life when robots rule the earth which is published by Oxford University press in may 2016. Dr. Hanson is associate professor of economics at the center for study of public choice at George Mason University and Research Associate at the future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University with nine Years Experience as a Research Programmer at both lockheed and nasa. So obviously he is a Diverse Research interests including but not limited to group insurance, broadband and the bioethics of health care. You can read more about his work on his blog at overcoming bias. Com. It will be worth your time, the Financial Times said robin hanson one of those original thinkers i in the world and this fascinating account of our future society is like nothing you read anywhere else, astonishing stuff. Please help a welcome robin hanson. [applause] im going to give a short talk and well have lots of time for questions, and i know there will be lots of questions, so get them ready. Now reading unless you beg me. This is all of history on one graph. On the x. Axis is log rhythm of time, sometime in the near future for all fits. On the y. Axis is the growth rate of the human economy and of other things before. Notice it looks like a staircase. Humans started 1 million years ago and double roughly every quarter million years at a steady rate and then there was a sudden transition. When the growth rate jumped up by a factor of more than 50, having farmers a double roughly every 1000 years. That happened about 10,000 years ago. Been 200 years ago there was another transition from the Industrial Revolution. And then the growth rate again jumped up in less than a doubling time to be doubling every 15 years. Thats what its been doing for the last few centuries. If this trend were to continue then sometime in the next century roughly, it would be a five year period and during that period would be a transition to an economy that is a doubling every 15 years doubled every month. And that would last for a year or two and then Something Else would happen. It would change again. That would be a straightforward projection of previous trends. That sounds pretty crazy. Now, the most dramatic scenario people have given that economy, and society to change a lot, our robots or artificial intelligence, machines as smart as people. I was an ai researcher for nine years from 8493 and ive been in the habit of talking to people in that field who have been interviewed for at least 20 years and ive been asking them how far has revealed come in the last 20 years as a percentage of the distance to human level abilities . They usually coming five to 10 of the distance, no notice of acceleration or he would take to do for such a soybean field to reach human level ability which is short compared to the distance roman empire but not in the immediate future. Some people say we are going to dramatic progress in the future, even the past progress was slow so that it will be much faster we will discover a great brandnew theory may be. Off focus on a third scenario by which we might achieve smart robots. Its called brain emulation to the ideas like porting software. If you have an old computer the 20 software you like, theres a new computer and go to Software Like that on the new computer, what approaches to secure the old software, try to guess that works and then write software in the new computer attacks attempting to old one works. Another approach is to write was called an emulator. This is a program on the new computer that makes the new and look like the old one. If you do that you can move the software screwed over, but it without understanding it, without knowing how it works, just move it. The idea is to do that same thing court to software thats in the human brain. We need three technologies to reach sign up levels but none of them are there yet. We need lots of cheap fast parallel computers. We need to take individual human brain and scan them in detail to see which kinds of cells aware, connected what with which parameters. And then we need to have computer models, models of inputoutput beaver of each kind of cell in the brain this is how it takes signals an, changes and will stay in sends signals out. If youre good enough model for all the kinds of cells in the brain and do good in the skin of a particular brain then you can put together a model of that particular brain with all those cheap fast parallel computers. If the model are good enough and the skin is good enough then by definition the entire model should be good enough. It should have the same inputoutput behavior so you can hook it up with hands, eyes, ears, mouth and then talk to it. It would talk back to do it at the same as the region within the same situation but if you can do that you have whats called a brain emulation and then everything could change. Ive been around people talk about this idea for many decades. Its a staple of sciencefiction and futurism. A Great College bold session topic or when the subject comes up people like to talk about is it possible, which technology would make it happen, when what happened . If you can make what would be conscious or is it just a machine . If you could make an emulation of me is it me or somebody else . Those all fascinating questions that im going to ignore. I think theres a neglected question that gets set aside in all those discussions which is what would actually happen. How does the world change . Theres been very little of that. Science fiction sometimes deals with this in their but they are not realistic. Think of three kinds of futurism. One way to protect the future is to take trancelike decreasing religiosity, increasing leisure, decreasing marriage, try to project those ford and what happens in the future another kind is look for technologies that might disrupt trends like selfdriving cars are blocking change. You ask when without show up . What form . How expensive . A third kind of futurism is take one of those Disruptive Technologies and you say how would the world change . A lot of the people who know how to do number two, how to imagine technologies dont think number three is possible. Because like me when i was an undergraduatundergraduate in phy would not there is no such thing as social science. Nobody knows anything over there. Im a professor of economics by now and i say its not. We do know things and want to try to convince people it is possible to social science to think about the future. This is a map of academia. All the major field and how theyre connected. These links are where the fields are linked to each other a lot. It turned out to be relevant. Whats relevant is on drawing on all these colored boxes for the purpose of this book. I have a diverse background. That you ability qaeda make a virtue out of writing a book if you only knew a lot about a lot of different fields. Take the lowhanging fruit. Im going to go area by area looking for easy things to say, straightforward implications of standard results. When it gets hard i go onto the next area. Im going to do a theorist do everywhere which is look for my keys under the lamppost. That is, i make some assumptions as necessary to get concrete results. I will explain right now with those assumptions are. This is my last slide before started thing about the age of em. First of all im trying not to be original or creative other than by asking this unusual questioning what would have happened if you bringing elections . Im not going to tell you what you should like or not like. No, judnick 11 or hate it. Just going to try to tell you what is likely to happen if we follow the path of least resistance. I would be pleased to bestow more like a history test and less like a comical sciencefiction movie. Im going to focus on the bus because thats what most of the action is although we will talk about humans. Im not going to tell you about the entire history of the universe of the next trillion years. My ambition is only to tell you about the next great era after hours, that is a different from ours as ours is from forging an apartment there. Amulet last year to in the Something Else will happen and im not going to talk about that. Im going to tell you about this once theyre used to. You are now used to the en end f the show aired. You know what this world is like that youre comfortable with the. During the early Industrial Revolution people did know what was happening. Its easier to predict what this was like when people used to love focus after the transition on more of an equilibrium. As an economist im going to use ecommerce standard desperate to which is called supply and demand. Supply and demand assumes whatever is being sold and lots of buyers and sellers and theres not much regulation. Thats what im also going to some. This is just our best first a tool to start with and then we go on from there. Finally, im going to assume that these emulations are okay and, therefore, simple. That is you can make the simulation, turn it on but you cant take one persons music and combined it with someone elses christmas vacation memory. You can just turn them on, turn them off, erase them, copy them, run them fast, run in slow. Thats it. Otherwise its just a block box. That means they behave a lot like the original payments because thats pretty much all you can do to them. Those are my working assumptions and now going to tell you about tonight as best i guess it. Some of my results are true for any world dominated by robots. Robots can be represented as computer files. So robots can be immortal. Today houses and cars can be a moral duty to keep preparing them and maintain them they could last for ever but you dont always so just because they could be immortal doesnt mean they are. Electronic files can be sent across the world at the speed of light. Therefore, robots can travel across the world of the speed of light because they can be represented as computer files. You are afraid if you kill major you will die. Its a reasonable fear. Robots know that if theyre made in factories and actually kill major, they do not die. They are less afraid of killing nature. You can make copies of files. This has enormous implications. First of all, wages quickly fall to subsistence levels. That is, the competition for all these copies that can be very easily made pushes wages down to the cost of making and breaking new hardware which is much less than usual human wages or even human substances wages. Will talk about humans in a moment. Because you can copy so quickly, the economy can grow much faster. Standard economic theory says if you can make substitutes for human workers in factories just as fast as you can make ordinary things make today in factories, the economy can double every month. Thats not crazy. Thats a straightforward implications of standard Economic Growth theory. If it takes you to get to mars and economy doubles of the month, profit seeking ventures will just not bother. Its way too long a delay. So during the age of em they wont bother with things in space and not even so much with things our way on earth. Humans must retire. They will be all country into small number of densities succubus can have the rest of you but humans come they will be outcompeted for the jobs by the emulation and selectively humans all lose their ability to earn wages. However, humans also collectively owned this entire world. They own all the factors, real estate, land. So if the economy doubles every month there will doubles every month. Humans get rich very fast collectively of whethe above ane individual human does okay depends on whether they have sufficient assets, insurance or sharing arrangements. My prediction is since that is a very enormous in the past across time or place, it will very again in the future. Some places will have sufficient insurance and others will not. Emulation start out as humans. Their mental and psychologically to restrict our within the human race but they are not typical humans. Us into the typical emulation is not in the middle of the dish vision it were thinking about characteristics that make them more productive. They are off on the end. They are elite. Probably most are copies of the few hundred most productive humans. That makes emulations as the lead as typical billionaires, head of state, nobel prize winners, olympic Gold Medalist a typical emulation isnt that good and they know it. They look back over on humans with the stalls and gratitude but maybe not so much respect which is if you think about how you think about your ancestors but if all the more reason to think so. We know a lot of things that theyre and correlate with is more productive in our society so i can use those things to protect typical features. They are more conscientious, workaholics, peak into productivity what everybody. For us like 40 or 50. Theyre probably get up in the morning, married even though religious because these all things that correlate with be more productive in our society. Most jobs in advanced econ our desk jobs. Theres no point of putting it in a little mechanical desk. The award on the computer and its cheap to give them a luxury his first are really compared the cost of running their brain. They have luxurious beautiful environment. In Virtual Reality where most of the work and all of them leisure. They never need hunger, pain, disease. Their bodies are always beautiful, always looked young. Its a great world except notice these are all desks. They are working most of the time. They are a hardworking competitive emulation. Some of you when you were youngg you may be looked about and thought i seem to be weird. I wonder if im from another planet . I wonder if someday i will meet other people from a plant and said they would be like me and well get along. For em this is true. Remember most of them are copies of the few hundred most productive humans and so for each when the baby billions of other emulations walking from the same original human. They have more in common with them. That becomes a new unit of social organization that they can use of law and politics and finance. That allows them to get more things done. Probably the most traumatic thing that ever happened to the human race so far was the transition from foraging to farming. We forgers were in rough equilibrium with environment. When he did what felt natural it was usually the right thing to do. But when farming became possible it was only possible because humans have a plastic in a kind of culture that culture could change and tell people that new kind of attitude and value was the kind that was right for them. Farming culture cranked up religious pressures and a fully pressured to create a new set of values of the farming world. Farmers have a lot more inequality, war, lack of travel, more work from all things that forgers didnt like but farmers got used to them. That pressure that held farming in place weekend as we got rich in the last few hundred years. As weve got rich it feels less compelling to go. In the old pharmacology of a young woman was told to give a child out of wedlock you and your child may start, that was a credible threat. Today when youre rich this is a challenge that and you go, i would survive, i would do okay. The cultural pressures that turned forgers into farmers feel less weakens the we of the trends in the last two centuries. This explains changes in fertility, increase democracy, decrease slavery, increase art, travel, all Budget Trends can be understood in terms of us going back to forge her ways because that feels more natural and the threats that makes into farmers feel less compelling because we are rich. Emulations are not rich. Because they go back to more subsistence income and because the culture needs to act in ways that are not natural to forgers they probably go back to farming style culture in many ways. They probably increased the pressures of religion and conforming and other things in order to get them act in the new styles of ways to the humans are rich capitalists on the side probably stay in a forger culture. This is your life. Simple, start and end. This is the life of an emulation who every day when the ready for work, a shortterm task and it is but maybe they will stand in line at the dmv. These shortterm copies are all work. The mainline copy work and then have to pay for leisure to get ready for the next day but these are the copies are all work so even though they have a disadvantage of not remembering, they are still much more productive. This is a very tempting strategy. We will talk more about in a minute. This is an opportunistic em. They make more copies of themselves. They dont know ahead of time which one it will be so its a chaotic tree of life. This is an emulation designer. They conceive of a whole system perhaps an Amusement Park and then they break into copies who didnt elaborate at the sight of it all the way down to doing all the detail. In this way a single emulation can conceive of a much larger integrated design than we can today. Today when we design everything, one guy decides it and other people emulate a. This is an emulation plumber. Who remembers every day for the last 20 years they only ever worked two hours a day, a life of leisure. Every day when they were ready for work they made 1000 copies of this plumber, each filled to the to our plumbing job and one of them went on to the next day. Object of late this plumber is working over 99 of the time. Subjectively the remember a life of leisure. Emulations can be working very hard but that doesnt mean they remembered that way or see it that way. We know many systems Like Software of which of the future as they adapt to particular circumstances and context they become fragile and hard to read that two new context. This applies not just a software but to products and sales and species into the human brain. Human brains start out young with able to learn many things but not learning much. Knowing a lot but harder to learn. Possibly thats not just because a biological aging. Its because of his general feature we see in software. Because of this emulations by the agent have a limited career life. They may be able to live for ever inde