Financial or monetary sources, which are pretty much limited and you know that the new bunch should be accepted soon. Plans to the third of the reserve fund, meaning that the next year, its impossible to keep all this proportions and they should with revised in a various way. Second, its elite readiness. In my view, they can concede whats going on profitable in this sense that yes, they did pay. They did lose one fifth of their fortune, but they kept monopoly. They lost their usual way of life. They lost opportunities to go to go somebody else aboard. To spend money, they are earning in russia, in more comfortable countries, so they feel like being at the military camp will not last long, so they are eager to get back what they were forced to refuse from. Another reason to think these movements of a plane will not last for long is connected with the concept of multiply funnels, so not only this is the spirit going out, but it consists of serl important funnels. This is like a vicious circle at a time of growing instability. Its absolutely irrational to make investment not only financially investment, but political investment as well for longer period and this horizon is extremely short and becoming shorter and shorter because of inability and lack of desire of elites to make long investment. The second funnel is connected with the fact that what of course the crimean syndrome. Support of the leader after the annexation, but we got approximately the same downgrades in the way how this society looks at different problems like say corruption is 20 points less important now than it used to be. Problems with caucuses at 20 less serious. It looks like society is drunk, then its easy to think that there are no other problems since your life is good, but its not that easy to keep person being drunk for long. So, it needs a certain investment and this should increase all the time. Third, there is manual criminal and it was clearly described by brian and the problem is that when being exercised for long Manual Control is making impossible to suede you back to automatic regime. There are no institutions and there is collection selection of personnel which cannot make any decisions at all. This fourth is relief fights. In Decision Making, in present day russia, we can see that more and more of them leads to act on their own. And these is the way in which elite clans and there are no mechanisms linking to reach a composition, so the danger of making decisions, but not in interest of the whole system or the danger of not make iing. Let me think there is about one year of life expectancy, but not to speak about different ones. Weve seen one of these black sw swans today. White swans is almost almost zero. What we see now and what hes studied may see the strategy a. So, the goal i think a achieved and this never was the goal to change something in syria itself or to keep assad in place. The goal was to demonstrate that putin is a cruel leader, who can bring military victories and these goal inside the country is already chief. So, it goes in line of what i did tell about the need was capable to keep this new military legitimacy. Thats why russia switched to syria and due to prop began ta machine, the goal inside the country was already chief which puts him into the position of a strong leader and this makes it possible for him to clean for switch in relations with the west. From the step of position of a weak leader, but as demonstration of his strength. Then i think the exit strategy can be connected with a replacement putin by somebody else. Not necessarily put nn the position. Here in one position and the name of this position is puente. What is important i think thats the countrys planning to new elections. To a new cycle and the early elections, which should be helped next september. I would wait almost immediately after this elections, it can explain why elections are early. Address the need for the nation, for putin to address the nation because the elite understood that china cannot replace the west. Thank you. Thank you. I think we can open up discussion to members of the audience. Do we have microphones . If you have a comment or question, we can bring over a microphone for you. Please identify yourself. Eleanor, i worked for usaid in crew crane for five years, so certainly have an interest in that situation and i was intrigued about mr. Taylor, about your saying that the head of the Armed Services wasnt involved in the decision and do you know whether that was also the case and what the more extreme factor of the innovation of eastern crewukraine, which i has been less rewarding. Why dont you take them as they come. He was not consulted when the first decision was taken is moscow rumor, right . No one has said publicly on the record officially who exactly were the four people that putin said he consulted with that night. He is officially, unofficially said there were four of us and at the end of the nigtd, i turned to them and said were going to have to bring crimea back to russia. Theres a list of names band died about. Later, there were further decisions about implementation and some of his close deputies played a role in crimea, but the claim is that the initial decision was made without the defense ministers participation. Many were opposed to this decision and foreseeing the potential consequences, but putin has the one and only important vote. In terms of the military action in eastern ukraine, by that point, the Defense Ministry is involved in those decisions, although its hard to see exactly how the russian side has managed. It looks like they were running a game there, the had various political connections, the rebels or whoever you want to call them. And that the military had its actions and it doesnt seem to me it was well coordinated all the time and there were rumors that head of the Security Council was clashing with this person about lines of authority. For the operations there. I will not any. I would focus on the fact that due to bloomberg and some other news agencies, there are a lot of myth about how decisions are made in russia and who exactly is making these decisions and i would like at decision on crimea and ukraine in general. With three different decisions. The first one, the major one, ip vold confrontation with the west should be taken by shareholders and not managers. Theyre those guys like putin ol garks. The second decision about what can fall in case ukraine would sign these agreement with the eu, it should be made not only by ol garks, but by guys from secret service and the third decision about a country in crimea could be made by these guys by and its interesting that in a very recent book, one informed russian was trying to explain the decision and he reminds us how decision has been made on innovation to afghanistan. He was stalled by union, so that would it invite you not to tell us about opinion, but our opinion and to realize this. This could happen with record to crimea as well. Thank you very much for excellent presentations. First, the comment. On the financing. About the deficit for next year will be 40 billion as planned and totally international. 365 million. So, best of luck to hang themselves with. And three questions. First, hasnt the bureau to consider big stand replaced by the security counts where you had 30 men, ten key, that are meeting quite regular about every tenth day. Such a body today. But the two leads, the north america and team they seem to be rising and the other part is the state enterprise managers. If they could discuss if this is really happening. We can see it clearly on state allocations of funding. And then third, to both of you, how to you look up ukraine in the situation. You could have elaborated as you touched up. The factor ukraine, in four days, putin as far as ive seen, not maintained the capital for the city to ukraine while he instantly complained sharply. Go ahead. I can start. If you do control everything including the central bank, including the minister of finances and so on, you can or at least it looks like you can easily fix this problems and if needed, you can print. This is exactly whats going on to cover this deficit. Id like to mention only one funny story about the fact that just on the eve of the project, the draft of the project to budget to the state, the government wage planned to cut off elite expanding was forced to refuse from this idea. Perhaps they did consult whom they should and how they did manage to do this at the last moment, they did just change prices the inkrecrease there ano claim them additional several million demonstrate there is no additional deficit connected with this wise decision. Speaking of all the political, there is while the consul assistant agency in moscow all the time with screams of putins bureau, in my view, its a little bit misleading. Due to the fact that the bureau at the time of the Union Central committee was formal institution where all presented which should meet to decide to make important decisions. No more and the only organ wage does meet in real life is security console. It sounds just like it does here in this could be trdroin, but i important. Not so much the institute. Its more substitute. Shared by the president. Who can either make decision on the basis of the discussion or who cannot make this decision. The Security Council cannot make any decisions by it. And it combined with with certain formal institutions like the houses of Russian Parliament whose chairs do not play any essential role in Decision Making. Several servants, managers like here, Social Security agencies and there are no putin ol garks almost none there, which makes this board not a kind of real sent to where decisions are made. I would agree that at the time of war, military and secret service guys do claim much more Important Role and although we see this same socalled liberal economists of the government. Their role is to minimize damage, the results of somebody else, not by them. This is very dangerous i think, well change for putin. He cannot allow any of these plans to win against others because hell need hostage of this elites and i can hardly imagine what can be done in order to restore this balance in elites. Are not interested in any kind of radical solution for ukraine. They are interested to keep in its shape the controlled conflict. I dont think there is anything positive, the kremlin can get find huge money in order to keep it afloat or get pretty big number of will be not eager to come back to their subordinate role and this is very dangerous thing, so, its much more effective to keep certain control to demonstrate that something is going on. To look for any kind of the final solution. Thanks. A couple of responses in terms of specific question about a split perhaps between the cronies versus. It has been very interesting the way that sections efforts to gain access to verve funds has been blocked. And there seems to be some indication that putin is looking more closely at how the state enterprises have been managed or mismana mismanaged. The shift, despite leaving the formal position as head of russian railways, i dont see that because its unclear where putin would return. I find it hard to be that he would opt for a manager type the way he has in russian railways. Ton side, some people think the bridge to crimea and therefore, raised his influence. I dont know whether we can project that out. I think historically, he was clearly much more powerful than so, it would be a shift of important progressions if that is flipped now. It seems on the part of putin, there is ukraine fatigue because things didnt work out the way they hoped and projected they would, but he doesnt know how to get out of it. He cant get out of it by simply walking away. He really feels like he needs to maintain some kind of lever on the key of government to keep it from drifting closer to the west. The forces can be a lever that he can use at any point hes hoping to recognize those forces as legitimate actors empowered to negotiate on behalf of decentral aigs or solution. But the key of government is not going to give him that, but he isnt sort of willing to just walk away from it, so hes kind of stuck and i think he wants to keep it as low a boil as possible. If theres a walk back to some of the anxiouses on the part of europe within the next year, that may be enough for him. In the fourth row. Thanks. I would like to thank you for very insightful comments from you both. I have one question. I like very much the tour divided governing and i have one comments or one reflection about this. Ruining the government is about trying the state. What is the sense of the system request you use the terms hostages, other strategies in russia. In terms of ruling about keeping in power and being about the state because to a certain extent, theyre both about the state. Its more the nation of the institutions within the state and how decisions are made. Weve seen a steady but one direction move on weakening constraints and weakening the role those play and increasing the control on informal structures. So, in that sense, i think it reflects a general tendency that that he is capable of ruling by institutional procedures and the russia needs manual steers. He said that quite clearly in 2007 and the interview, he said were coming out of a huge crisis. We need to work in terms of a manual regime and until we get the institutions in place, legal institutional regulatory and so on, were going to have to work in a manual regime and that will take at least another 15 to 20 years, well, from time he said that, that would put us into 20, 27 and if he stands for reelection in 2018 and serves another six years, that puts us in the middle of f that 15 to 20year period. Its far off given the shortterm time horizons the problem of disorder if he was to step aside. Okay. Nikolai. In our studies where did use four of them. Another one can be called the towers of the kremlin. These towers, the third mode of a solar system, putin is our sun and everybody radiates around him, so, youre influence is defined by the distance and when repeating, they can form different conciliations. The fourth mode of the board where putin is becoming chair of the board and ceo. Until recently, we were seeing that putin is not czar. He is chair of the board and should do what the board decides. Unfortunately now, he is more like a czar and hes much less dependent from this board. Perhaps its not deciding a lot now and there is a new mode according to wage, there are some experts, those who are trusted by putin in different spears and there are a few strategies, the problem i see is connected with the fact that these political geometry does not let anybody else except for putin and results of that move and thats the problem because different parts of this power machine do act in its own interest, not in the interest of the whole system and nobody can do this in the interest of the whole system except for putin himself. So, those guys who are different between loyal servant, managers and strategists are seeing that well, putin can be seen as a strategist and the chief of staff can be seen as strategist from the opposite side. Ones coming. Thank. Forgive me if you touched on this side, my name is mindy, i worked in central asia. First part of my question is what do you see in terms of recruitment from the caucuses to isis, to isil, to syria and other place, libya, and the future leverage of putin on central asia, hes certainly made it clear he wants to exert some interest, but given russias economic challenges, how realistic is that into the future . Wrote a wonderful book on regimes and these are regimes, speeds and the problem is that they are agent, so, i would speak about ageing putinism and i would look at crimea as viagra for this ageing reveem. Which cannot work for long. And the problem is what exactly will happen if and when these ageing leaders are coming out of pow power. If there is strong personal israel m, then anything can happen. And central asia is very dangerous place where there is huge pressure put on to why its not les radical, but can react which can if there are negative consequences at a time when its pretty old and who is will leave. So, i dont think, well, this is the real problem and russian authorities do try to do something, but as i did tell, there is a short time horizon. So, theyre trying to deal with problems as the problems appear, meaning theyre not in a position to make some fruitful efforts to deal with blood, perhaps contracts or civil war in central asia. Speaking of our black swans, about caucuses and russian caucus is in a bad shape and when the government is coming out of money, not only it means that it cannot keep the way going on, but it means also that it cannot play regional elites for their loyalty and will have negative consequence. In my view, the turn which took place in 2014 are was about closing putins integration and more about the nation state and the in russia. Not only in russian nationalism, but into russia. So, i would say that in my view, one of the in 2014, one is connected with the society. And its under estimated usually. So, i just use the image of the nation. Came back to egypt, meaning that were to change the society. Which not only is drunk now, but when well ek appearance and hand over. In nationalism, both russian and i can say no nobody can guarantee that explosion at the northern caucuses will not take place or pretty soon assume you for different reasons. Not only changing our wages, which is under control of another well, dictator. But there is, dagestan as well, where the center is trying very different approaches and it means dagestan pretty dangerous place in terms of well stability in the future. In terms of central asia, its probably useful since were talking about ukraine to a certain extent, to remind us that all of this started because of the issue of the Association Agreement with the eu and putin was pushing for a crew crane signing up for the Economic Union and just as the old line was, the soviet union cant exist, lodgelically, it makes a lot less sense. Its russia, belarus kazakhstan and other small countries. Its important to make the right choice antd it didnt work out well for him in the long run, so even know in central asia, only kazakhstan and kyrgyzstan are signed up and i think russia in the median term is destined to lose more to china and central asia given just the economic power that the two countries wield. In terms of the caucuses and recruitment in the region, im not a specialist on this. The numbers you see run from the hundreds to the thousands in terms of recruits from russia who may have gone to fight prices. There are even conspiracy verkss that the fsb is urging certain militants to leave, so they go fight in syria. I have no evidence that is true, but you hear that in various places. It is interesting and among itself so clearly with iran and a Syrian Regime thats dominated by shi islam.