In the late 1970s as a refugee from russia. He also did his undergraduate at moscow state university, but slumming it at columbia for his graduate work, which is in political sociology, which i feel like thats plum line running through your work because, even when you are writing biography, be like your outstanding book. Yeltsin it really is more about the culture, sociology of russia thats producing these of leaders. So with that, tell us about particular political sociology. Well, thank you very much for being here, finding the time to be here and also for all your support while i was i was writing this book. It is not only my pleasure, its my actual job. Well, its its i think each of chapters of this book could be could be a separate book. But i wanted to give the readers. A kind of a but memorable tour of the house that putin built. And and, you know, if you think of the key concepts, ideas ideas, the policies as as colorful tiles, i tried to line them up and then cohere them in in a in a in a portrait and speaking of which, there are about two dozen photos that were to show you some of the two dozen photos as we go along. The people who know about technology than i will do it. The we took we took some of those photos straight from the net and the idea here was to show a rather than tell it thats thats the theme permeates the book its entirely based on art or raw intelligence. Its russian sources and a lots of lots of horses and lots of mouths. I had to i had to listen to and look into a couple of things preliminary the book was, a written before a or other, or rather, i started writing the concept, as you remember, was around 2018 at the time the book was title a short victorious war. I knew that there was going to be a war. At that time, i was considered an outlier and a bit nuts. Nobody believed that putin would start a war but this brings me to the theme of the book and the theme of the book, how essentially one man prime and a great and large country war and and thats the tiger he settled the tiger of militarized patriotism and and i think the adjacent scholars political call it and and very difficult to get off the tiger tiger took him to ukraine i think the relevance of this book even though even though i finished it after the invasion is first because it shows he got there but it also think irrelevant because sooner or later the war will be over and the the the russia that putin forged will stay with us and and i tried show what sort of country he created and what sort of toxic mix he pumped into his people. So i realize i neglected to. Hi im corey shockey. I lead the foreign and Defense Policy Team here, the American Enterprise institute. But tacking back to the conversation. So it sounds like your judgment is that we dont just have a putin problem, but because we have had a putin problem, we now also a russia problem, according one of the things that that struck and of course, you know, if if a book you write, first of all, does not involve. Sometimes 180 degrees from from from your original idea, then its not a good youre not thinking your way through. Yeah and secondly, if youre not surprised by by by what this book tells you. Then then again, its not a particularly good one of the things that surprised miller there were several things is precisely that and that is that. Its not a new idea. But goodness, this was really exhibit a how in a in a country with a a weak tradition of civil Civil Society weak tradition of self organization. How quick early and almost painless only elites could turn around that country and the Public Opinion and if putin proved a very demagogue largely i in part because although he positioned himself as as the soviet im sorry, as the russian patriot, you know, late 99 and 2000, he is in fact, a fervent soviet patriot and. The humiliation of the fall from the superpower ship, the trauma of of the end, the exclusive or at least thats what they have considered their exclusive exalted position in the world as a counterpart. Incidentally, not just political geopolitical or military, but moral to the united states, which, of course, is the country that matters to russia. That that the democrats of the nineties and late eighties underestimated the trauma he felt it and he among other things, played up and and kind of parasitized on the humiliation that people felt and humility could be a source of a very albeit dark power. I mean hitler germany after the defeat in world war one there are other there are many examples of this so he he felt that he it up and of course in the end he told the not only will they defeat you but i will restore the the glory of the soviet union. I will recover for you the not just thats his domestic agenda political and they economic assets that were lost in the soviet collapse, but will recover for you. The geostorm assets as well. And we know from the Public Opinion polls that which i actually cite rather extensively in the book, that he was wildly successful and and you mentioned kind of the fragility of of trend of in a time of transition. What about the role of civil because i think of that this superpower of freedom a buffer in in societies in freedom is more established and especially in the rambunctious sense of this society would would a stronger Civil Society was stronger Civil Society possible . Did we miss opportunities . Did russians opportunities and do you think it would have made any difference or was there power of the storm that has unleashed in russian going to overpowered even that . I think there was a really burgeon Civil Society at the end of the eighties and in the nineties what i call the gorbachev yeltsin. Ive written theres a collection of essays russias revolution i i collected some some of pieces that i wrote it was amazing i mean they the politics burgeoning the there was an absolute freedom of the press there was a unleashed private the art the culture just boomed. But i i think it was not enough there ten years is not enough and and was you there was an actual resistance of course along the way. But putin went very cleverly about this. So if well look at it as as and it was that was many other but it was certainly it be considered part of a reaction or a restoration that follows any great revolution and and here those restorations are never sort of about the blank negations of what happened. I mean if you look at the you know, at what happened after the french revolution, british and of course the Russian Revolution revolution, whether they leave institutions of as they were certain institutions that that revolutions brought about, but they hollowed out, they corrupted them they they kind of destabilized them from within. And what putin did was he the he left the duma, the parliament, but within within the first two terms, 2000 to 2008, they became a shell. One of the things i think you discover for one that that. Money works sometimes is more effective than terror. And so and so the leaders of the parties, some of some the people i see in this in this room studied with me the what happened in the nineties. Goodness the communists of of the Russian Federation were fire breathing dragons. I mean they were after yeltsin, you know, remember yeltsin was was almost impeached twice the in the in the duma vote something that sounding outlandish. Absolutely fantastic today but but what happened what in fact i was wondering you know 2017 is of course the 100th anniversary of the great october revolution, which under different circumstances would have been sort of a as a fire or of of of firestorm of red banners, speeches and nothing, nothing Nothing Happened in 2017. That is really interesting and so there are threats out there money. There is money there are threats. There are also very real possibility that youll go to jail on some fantastic term. There was a a story recently about a an unnamed a member of, the russian parliament, the duma, the lower house who came to the Deputy Director for domestic politics, the guy the name of kirilenko. And he said, i cant take it anymore. Im resigning two days later, there was a a raid of his sons business and, his wifes business as well. And on the third day, he came back to korea and he said, sorry, i take it back and carry and carry on, because certainly russia very good. Excellent. And the and that is how putin structured that system. And and the hollowing out. And of course, you know one by one by one the formerly Russian Television including mtv air which probably was one of the worlds best most superficial made and staffed by truly talented people. I remember, i believe was very early in push in putins 2000 and 2001 when they took over the mtv, there was a at the pushkin square in moscow. Several thousand people, everybody regretted it. And thats where it ended and that that link is the distinction between manipur nation of elites and how you that dynamic taking in the Broader Society intimidating jailing a few thousand people from a protest casts a pall. What else did they what else did putin and his apparatchiks do on the broad public scale . Thats that stamp did out well you you go by example all you know you you arrest and then try twice for a very lengthy prison term the richest man in russia Mikhail Khodorkovsky you take over the largest and most modern Russian Company yukos and through a set of rigged auctions is the state becomes the owner. You have other example tells you you take like i said you take over the tab there you dont you know these days of course you you are repressed. Whats interesting is that putin now brought that that his russia to a more repressed state than was the late soviet union. I mean i dont remember the seventies the terms of 25 years in jail as is navalny is now serving or 19 years as as my dear friend of the karamurza is serving that simply didnt exist i mean those types of terms were for turn spies treasonous but you didnt need the term they just shot them so so that he he is now now its much naked display of force but before remember agree i said that that the overarching goal of of putins rule certainly two terms was to recover for state the new russia the geopolitical domestic political and economic assets that were in the soviet collapse. And so he proceeded very methodically his with what lenin called the commanding heights of the economy gas, oil, largest companies. And the message you were asking me how hes done it. The message after khodorkovsky arrest was to all the socalled oligarchs and tycoons, you dont own your businesses. You managed them on behalf of the state. Sure enough, by your chateaux in france build yachts that that have swimming pools and, hockey rinks, built palace on lake como. But remember, this is this could be away from you at any time. And afterwards, course, there were other cases less well known where those who did not toe the line went to jail. So this is this is the economic part. The Political Part i mentioned there were, you know, the out of the parties making sort of shells out of out of the parliament, the the independent media and so on, so forth and of course, the sheer toxicity, this is one of the things that really surprised me. The sheer of the propaganda that putin unleashed again, there are all kinds of very dear and familiar faces in this hall for me. And i think agree that this type of for this type of propaganda, you have to go probably to the late thirties or late forties under stalin, not not under the late union where i grew up. So it seems like there may be one parallel between putins domestic and his inner national behavior and. It occurs to me that in a lot of the extraterritorial killings that the russians state has carried out, its almost theyve wanted us to see it. They wanted us to know it. That was it either shockingly sloppy tradecraft and a serf it of people falling out of windows or it purposeful that we were supposed to know. And it sounds like from what you just described, the tradecraft also supposed to be visible domestically. Was that a fair . Definitely. Definitely. Alexander litvinenko. I mean, you dont you dont have to try. And i mean, you could you could kill, you could poison. You dont have to leave an isotope that is only produced in the soviet well, in russia, right. I mean, you you leave the trace. You tell them this is how its going to happen. Of course, it happened again in britain with the former. You with the double spy who survived, but an innocent woman was killed. And so absolutely. This is and there is a breach here, of course, to the nuclear blackmail. If you want to talk about. So so you you intimidate people inside, but you also intimidate the outside world, the socalled west, and you intimidate them by well, theyre well known quotes from putin about the end of the world means to him and how the russians are going to go to paradise while the rest of of their good will will will die or putin use the worlds doormat, which is kick the bucket without even to and asked really you would you would initiate a world wide armageddon and said what do i need the world for in there is no russia so so so this is this is all of this is all these are all instances of of nuclear blackmail and of course early this year he pulls out of start just other week he nullifies the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban treaty. And of course as you know, i have a fairly scary last chapter of this book where where i posit that that getting out of ukraine the war that he could not win and and but also could not walk away nuclear appeared to me probably the most plausible thing he can do. Yeah i do think we are that possibility because i can see three scenarios that might make sense. Putin as russia loses its war in ukraine. One is as the Ukrainian Military picks momentum in repulsing russia out of ukrainian territory. So eventually they are going to have to mass troops and mass tanks and equipment. That becomes a more promising target than the dispersed warfare. We have mostly seen up until this point, the second scenario, nuclear scenario. I can see that might make sense to putin is. You know, their army gets driven out of. Ukraine, a strike on key that produces the regime change that putin claims to have gone. Therefore, i can see that. And then the third is the is the bring the house down as long as im losing and might lose power as a result of it what do i care about the world if there is no russia, do any of whats whats your nightmare . All right. Let and the fourth one to just have the fool declare the a scared everybody completely. So so my in in in the final of the book is this so yes hes he not he does have the wherewithal he does have the talent of his as the assassin prigozhin illustrated so well he does not have the talent his generals. He does not because theyre all picked for loyalty, not not talent. He does have even even enough of of the nuclear sorry enough of the hardware. Hardware. So so hes stuck in world war one situation. He counts three things. First that hes economy and his society will withstand whats going on and what is going on is, you know, on the surface, there is no theres no catastrophe. But you know, inflation of 7. 5 , they now spend twice as much on defense as they did before. Health care, of course, and education, all of that fall by by the wayside. 300,000 at least, of the most talented young people there is. There a there are labor shortages. And so its okay. He thinks that he could go on this. The second point he key or the second possibility he counts on is that is that eventual ukraine is demoralized that i mean how long can you bomb hospitals and schools and cafes and Nuclear Power stations and and and water and all of those things. Right. And the third, which i think he thinks is the most plausible is the ukraine fatigue in the west. So so those are the three factors that that he counts on but then what happens that if none of them neither them and then none of them, none of them works . Well, i think that thats where nuclear blackmail is going to take place. I personally predicted a lightning attack on our own, a smaller country on the eastern part of eastern most part of of natal, latvia or estonia, largely because they they very Large Russian minorities and and taking it to the brink and then saying well lets stop lets stop. Lets pull. Come on. Come on. We are were you know, looking at in the precipice. Lets step away from the precipice. Lets do an overall settlement. It will will talk about this, will stand down in terms of our nuclear posture. But have to settle ukraine as well and settling ukraine means, you know, cease fire or truce with Russia Holding most of its territory. So i want to back up a little. We accelerated to the last of the book, and there are a couple of a couple of planks i still want us to get in place. One is about the role of religion for putin in terrorizing of russian society. You know, he assigned a patron to his nuclear forces, etc. Yes. And i think we have a photo of putin crossing. There we go. So patron saint is, saint seraphim of seraph. A why . Because thats where beria, the father of a russian project, decided to have the headquarters of the Russian Nuclear. So this monk, who who was canonized by nicholas second early in the 20th century, the monk himself lived in the first third of the 19th century. Seraphim of seraph is a patron saint of the nuclear forces. Putin went twice now their blessing. He sending to the former patriarch. Thats aleksey. And they they blessed the procession on the 100th anniversary of the saints canonized by nicholas. The second and then put in again to pray at the relics of the of the of the of saint seraphim asking for his blessing of the Russian Nuclear weapons. And i think we have a rather striking images. Oh there we go there they are there are i think there is this the only one or theres theres theres more. Okay. There we go. See see . So one of the many wonderful things about this book is all of the pictures that leon has included it and this is just a tasters mention of them so so yes theyre sprinkling holy water on the new on the nukes so this tells you about how really perverse. This society. Well not the society the regime is now as far as far as the role of religion it was always you know, in russia, you know, in in Public Opinion polls, you them i you an Orthodox Christian . Oh, yes. You know, 90 . Well, what was