Saber with regard to korea, not because they have an atomic bomb but he wants to get this war over with but its never it wasnt really a real threat but he rattles the saber a little bit. I havent seen anything in my research that would suggest that. Other questions . Ive talked enough about one of my favorite topics and i appreciate your patience and letting me indulge myself. Thank you very much. [ applause ] thank you very much. And the doctor will be out in the hallway with copies of his new book that came out last week in january. A few months behind. And i know he would be happy to chat with you more if you have additional questions. Thanks for being us at the national archives. Come back and see us again soon. In just a few minutes well bring a live discussion from philadelphia about house and senate races this fall and the possible makeup of the new congress. Members of congress pollsters and election specialists will trade views at this atlantic event. I hope everybody had enough coffee and banana bread. I want to thank the underwriters who make this week in philadelphia possible. Afc pa sear ra and makers mark will provide us bourbon come back at 4 00 for that. Yesterday after this session our friends from lululemon will lead a meditation session. If it sounds like a joke its actually not. I was a bit of a doubter yesterday but i did it just a couple minutes after the session and i promise you, if you do, it will be worth your while and get your day off to a good start. We are on twitter at the atlantic. We are live on cspan. And after both of our conversations this morning well have time for your questions so now to this subject at hand. As the democrats gather here in philadelphia, they ultimately have three major goals, first, win the white house, the other two win back the house, win back the senate. So the battle for congress will be talking about this morning. There are 34 senate seats up for grab this year. 24 of those seats are controlled by the gop in the House Republicans occupy 247. Of the 435 seats on ballot in november. So the democrats have a big job. To talk about their chances, weve got an excellent lineup. Please welcome the guests for the first of our two conversations, new york congressman joe crowley, vice chair of the democratic caucus. [ applause ] senator chris coons from delaware and ben ray luhan, chair of the dccc. David wasserman, also known as analyst on nbc news Election Night decision desk and for his book, better know a district. And leading the conversation, my colleague, molly ball. Thank you, everybody. Hi, everybody, thank you so much for coming. Well, lets jump right in with the big question, starting with the senate, senator coons are democrats go to retake the senate. Im confident they are going to retake the majority this fall. Its not going to be simple or easy. Given the numbers mentioned in the introduction, as you look at the candidates weve got and resources weve got as a party, im fairly optimistic that were going to take back control of the senate. If you look at the map for getting to four or five, i think it is relatively at this point straight forward to predict what that path is going to be. Ill say that evan bayhs decision to jump into the race, which you can applaud, up by 30 points in one poll and 20 points in another poll and 10 million in the bank and terrific name i. D. , ill contribute to making sure were able to put it over the top. Katie mcginty is running a clear strong race after having millions of negative ads against her in the last six weeks, still up by a couple of points. Last briefly by the way of introduction, im optimistic about the resources coming out of this convention. If i were running in pennsylvania, i would want joe biden next to me every day as i was campaigning in wilkesbarry and scranton and erie. If were campaigning in ohio or illinois or wisconsin, having all of the different resources we have in terms of folks who have a National Profile who have deep experience, whether its president o bam month or my friend tim kaine who will be a great campaigning on the stump or all engaged in volunteering as senators to help our colleagues, im optimistic. Coming out of cleveland you saw a divided Republican Party. They had a very difficult and messy primary process. The governor of ohio didnt bother going to the convention in his own state. We have great folks able to deliver it and run of candidates and im happy to get into any of them who have real strong choices and real strong chances for picking up majority this fall. Before i start arguing with you start arguing with me. Congressman luhan, are democrats going to overtake the house. I think theyll have a strong year this year. Going back in 2015, we launch the an effort to create a battlefield of at least 65 seats across the country with recruited candidates. Many people talked to us and said were not going to find recruits in those 65 districts across the country. Its going to be challenging. But then as we got closer to january of 2016 and all of a sudden this candidacy with this guy named donald trump started to surge and gop could not stop him, Different Things started to be said and there were different observations. Heres the plain and simple. Democrats are an offense, im optimistic about what we are 11 front liners have been doing well. We challenged them to win it in the off year to develop Strong Infrastructures and reach out to their candidates to their constituents to the electorate across the country. Senator coons always says you need to make sure youre leading with example and looking like a small town mayor in each in every one of the districts and they have done that. Then we have competitive seats across the country. 15 that president obama won and nearly loss. That solidified the base for those districts and now were working with dga and ds and all of our allies in those states where we will have battleground that consists of president ial patleground states, our districts that are battleground in those areas, as well as state and house and state senate seats. And then in places like in utah, where its a state where we may not be playing with the senator president ial but were digging into utah to make sure we have doug owens and have the resources he has. Were recently on expansion of the battlefield, down in florida with Stephanie Murphy taking on mr. Micah as well as you see the battleground grow into indiana and kansas and other areas. I guess i havent made any predictions Going Forward with the house, but leader pelosi challenged me to put the house in play. Were working day in and day out with every vote and every district. We want to see what we can do to maximize wins come forward. David wasserman, im sure you noticed the answer to my question was not yes. Can you provide us with an objective reality check. How do you like the democrats chances . The current outlook is a democratic gain in the house of five to 15 seats. I dont think that would be a bad night. Democrats challenge is illustrated by pennsylvania pretty perfectly. In 2012 the last time there was a president ial election, democrats won 83,000 more votes for congress counting house votes in pennsylvania but won five out of pennsylvanias 18 seats. So republicans were not only able to take advantage of the fact that democrats are clustered in cities like philadelphia winning districts with 80 or 90 of the vote but able to draw a map after the 2010 census that packed democrats into only five districts. Out of the 13 republican held states, theres only one we currently rate as truly competitive race in the philadelphia suburbs and bucks county which is open. If democrats have a road to majority, it will run through places like the philadelphia suburbs. But in addition to a geography problem it has been a challenge in terms of timing. If you said last year, well, whats one thing that could really tank republicans majority of the house . How about a crazy whacky nominee like donald trump . The problem in terms of house level attachment to trump is that the filing deadlines had passed in 81 of districts by the time donald trump captured the nomination in early may. So while there have been some democrats i think the dccc has done an admirable job of getting candidates into races while there was time to do so. It was too late in a variety of districts, a gain of 10 to 15 would be a good night for democrats. Congressman crowley, that suggests that a big part of the democrats strategy is going to be running against donald trump. Do you see that being the biggest theme of your house candidates . I think its one of the big themes. Obviously, they would say to themself, what did you call them . Crazy more exciting than that. Even though leader pelosi said yesterday hes the gift that keeps on giving. I think youre right in terms of philadelphia and the suburban area being road to capture the house. I also think you can discount new york. You look at the first long island great candidates and syracuse in colleen deacon, running against incumbent republicans, both districts have this history of going back and forth in election president ial election years. And when you have i think a great candidate at the same time, this turnout that comes out that doesnt speak well or bode well for republicans in states like new york, and then theres a whole bunch of other. Nine seats in new york that will be aggressively engaged in. I feel fairly optimistic. It certainly in the realm of the possibility. We have a much higher hurdle than the senate does to reach. And the Playing Field is a lot better. They have a lot more republicans in play than democrats this year. But when do you recognize a landslide . Its very unpredictable in terms of what donald trump will do and what hell say and what impact hell have on the down part of the ticket. What i can tell you, my colleagues who i see did see from time to time, we were in session, they are on the heels, very nervous about themselves, number of my colleagues did not go to the republican convention. They found an excuse, vacation being one of them. They had stubbed toes and things of that nature. So it really was remarkable to not only john kasich in his home state but folks were not coming from around the country. I was there on monday and tuesday last week and i ran into a lot of folks but saw a lot of folks missing. And i think thats also something to keep in mind. They are afraid of their own candidate. Molly, could i add an observation. With the trump effect and the observation with republican ger gerrymandering out of 2010, there were trends naturally going our way over time where we saw republicans republican districts getting more democrats, families Getting Started moving from the cities to the suburbs, those trends when you look at registration data, you see districts shift and then the emerging electorate coming our way. Those were already coming to democrats. Donald trump is accelerating that. Thats an important observation as we look at the new battlefield across the country. You talk about a landslide right now and this could be a convention bumper right now donald trump is ahead in most of the National Polls and nate silver is saying if the election were held today he would win. Senator coons how much do you need a Strong Performance by the top of the ticket . We need a Strong Performance. But if you look at the number of the states that we hoped might be in play, all of the most recent polls show them actually in play. So in arizona, in missouri, in iowa, in North Carolina, weve got candidates who in reecent polls are within 2 to 3 points against fairly strong and mostly incumbent republican candidates. So yes the National Head to head is going to be bouncing around. I frankly would ignore all National Head to head polls for the next couple of weeks. In our battleground map we have expanded it into several states where weve both got stronger candidates than we might have hoped six months ago. Weve got weaker opponents than we might have hoped six months ago and im convinced donald trump is making our candidates truly viable in places that would have been a difficult race two or four or six years ago. You mentioned arizona, we had greg walden in a discussion like this in cleveland, head of the republican congressional committee. And what he said was it is easier to tie Democratic Candidates to Hillary Clinton, whos unpopular than to tie republican candidates to donald trump whos unpopular because Hillary Clinton is obviously a regular democrat and donald trump is not so obviously a regular republican. Its easier for republicans to distance themselves in arizona the democratic candidate running against john mccain, theres an ad against her now tieing her to Hillary Clinton. Is the top of your ticket going to be a drag nor your candidates . I dont think it will be a drag, particularly as folks get to know tim kaine, some of the capabilities hes going to bring will excite and mobilize and engage voters who might not otherwise have performed at quite the same high level. Tim kaine is a progressive catholic and the combination of his service and experience in Armed Services and foreign relations, time in honduras, fluency in spanish and his ability to work tirelessly and connect in a number of states that might not previously have been in play but where he and hillary will help put them in play makes me optimistic about winning a number of seats that even a month ago a lot of most optimistic predictions didnt say we were going to have genuinely in play. I frankly think she and tim kaine will be a lift for us. Do you think its significant that senator coons wants to talk more about tim kaine than Hillary Clinton. Do you think democrats will look more at the second person on the ticket . Its certainly a solid pick for secretary clinton and tim kaine is a happy warrior, i dont think that can hurt the ticket. I think its hard to find anyone in congress who dislikes tim kaine. But the senate will be decided by the president ial race. The overlap between the president ial Battle Ground in the Senate Battleground is profound. Only a couple of states where there are Competitive Senate races that are off the table like indiana perhaps. But you go down a list of illinois and wisconsin as the first best democratic opportunities in the senate followed by New Hampshire, pennsylvania, ohio and florida. When you add in North Carolina and indiana to that mix, i think those last five are going to decide the fate of the senate. The Senate Democrats have advantages that democrats in the house dont have. For example, some of the demographic shifts helping Hillary Clinton and Senate Democrats are in places like florida, where wuf Puerto Ricans moving from the island to the mainland, particularly the orlando area. Those new voters who are automatically eligible by vir tour of citizenship are helping Hillary Clinton win florida. They are also potentially helping democrats in the senate race potentially beat marco rubio. Thats a House District the democrats already hold. A lot of trends are taking place in democratic districts. But i would add florida 06 and 07 an increased population with puerto rican voters and Stephanie Murphy jumping into the race and competitive nature, the shift, in those two districts we should see a bump because of that shift. Lets talk about the other side of the demographic coin. You are from a diverse place, guys that look and sound like you. Do you meet a lot of these White Working Class trump voters we keep talking what are you talking about . I apologize for stereo typing but do you have you seen are you talking to me . Constituents or elsewhere evidence that there is a group of previously disenfranchised people being brought into the electorate by trump . Its interesting, i came from the same borough as donald trump, i refer him conman don forgive me. He comes from queens and didnt grow up like i did. And he kind of has disavowed his queens citizenship and we dont like to refer him being from queens anyway, its kind of even. And i think there was a bit keep in mind Hillary Clinton served as new york states senator for eight years, u. S. Senator. Shes incredibly familiar, not only as a political figure but people know her. And i think cummings that, there was a lot bit of that in terms of long island, first and Third District some concern about that. Youll have a ground swell of voters that come out every four years, africanamericans and latinos and we saw numbers recently in latinos, he gets worse and worse with latino voters, a growing population on the island, for instance, that is not as widely noticed. So i think you would be surprised that a lot of people look and talk like i do and speak like i do are firmly behind Hillary Clinton. Senator coons, you talked about the Pennsylvania Senate race. This is a state that has been touted as potentially being put on the map by trumps kacandidc, is it going to be more competitive than usual in the president ial . I think pennsylvania is a key battleground state because of the math. If he cant win pennsylvania, i dont see a path to the white house for him. We need to hold pennsylvania in order to win the senate. Its going to matter for both sides in a critical way. I think it leans democrat. I think theres developed this muscle memory of voting president ial in president ial years nor democrats we built up the machinery of get out of the vote. But it is state that swings back and forth. We have the benefit of a democratic governor chief of staff is katie mcginty, candidate for the senate. Having come through a to