Transcripts For CURRENT The Gavin Newsom Show 20121222 : vim

Well spend this hour looking into the next, and give a full lowdown in what to expect in Technology Innovation and media in 2013. This year being the year that we plant electronic chips in our heads . Or is it time for that long awaited apple tv. Nick bilton is here with what to expect in consumer technology. And then media visionary tim oreilly, he looks into his crystal ball that is filled with new data and systems that will change the way we do business. Then finally you heard of the 100,000 laptop. Then now the 20 laptop. Rob nail joins us with a tool that might revolutionize education the way we know it. First we go with nick bilton with what to expect in 2013. Thanks for coming back on the show. Thank you so much. Gavin here we are 2013. 2013 all right . Gavin life moves on and nothing we can do about it unless Technology Figures that out. What are the biggest trends that are going to define this remarkable year 2013. I think well finally get chips in our head, and we will not have to speak to people. Well just communicate. You and i will do an interview just like that. Gavin the year of the google glasses. Yes. You will start to see those next year. Theyre going to be released in the developer version next year. There will an couple of thousand of them out in the wild in the beginning of january. Ail see these nerds having conversations with them. Cenk are you one of those nerds . Will we expect to see you like this . Ill test it out, i dont know if i can go that go that far wearing a computer on my face. Gavin what are you wearing what are we wearing . This is theit tracks how you walk, how you sleep you charge it every ten days i believe, and ive atried a bunch of them. There are devices that just do sleep. There are devices that does the nike fuel end and that one is good because it can track your running and things like that. But the thing that is fascinating is the sleep aspect, it sees you sleep four hours a night and wake up. Gavin deep sleep. Do you like yours. Gavin im enjoying it. I find how long it takes me to go to sleep and this deep sleep is fascinating and it tracks the times that you sleep best, so you wonder why youryou develop certain patterns. With what is interesting to me is that okay, telling me how much i walk, thats great. There are a lot of devices that do that. But the sleep aspect. When i go to the doctor and he says, how have you been sleeping sleeping . Ive been able to tell him. I havent been able to do that in an actual, methodical way. Gavin were going to be wearing augmented reality glasses, devices on our wrists. Are we going to see a new apple tv thats going to revolutionize tvs as we know them . Were going to have an apple device that goes on your wall or an apple device that goes on your wrist. Some sort of communication device on your wrist. Imagine you have your smart phone in your pocket and you get a text message, youll be able to interact with it on your wrist. Right now they sell these rectangles in all these different sizes thats all they sell rectangles in different sizes. Theyll be thinner but to innovate and get consumers out to the store it will have to be to sit on your wall or wear it. Gavin how has steve cook done in replaceing hes doing great. He doesnt have the opinions that steve jobs would have, you know, steve jobs would Say Something wasand he would curse about whatever it was. I think tim is a little bit gavin and among them, you would never leave home without and its your Desert Island piece. And he has moved forward with it. Its the months most amazeing device. Do you have one. Gavin i dont have one. Ill sell you mine, for lots and lots of money. I carry mine with me all the time. Gavin isnt that the most stark and notable deviations from steve jobs in terms of leadership of cook, or was that a ruse of sorts when it was the notion of the indianapolis pad when in fact, it was in development when he was life. I think the different in the ipad mini and the ipad biggy its great when youre home. And the mini is so you can take it out. Steve jobs was sick the last couple of years of his life. He didnt go out and about. He didnt sit on the subway and things like that. For him it was at product that he needed but its a product that everybody else needed. Maybe thats something that weve seen happen. The other aspect that has changed under tims guidance is this year there was a shakeup in the Design Department in apple. Youll see more design. You know how your ipod cast looks like an old radio. When they copy things from the real world and put it in here. There are people at apple that dont like that, and steve jobs did. When you see a pool table and its really ugly, i think next year youll see a lot more edgy design that we havent seen from apple in quite some time. Gavin what will we expect from the future future . Gavin what do you expect later this year as it relates to what you have been advocating, and thats these wallets virtual wallets. You believe that the end of the world of wallets. You would short companies i would short companies. I feel sorry for those wallet companies. A couple of weeks ago i almostfor the first time in many years my wallet fell out of my back pocket. I saw it when i stood up. Whoa, i would have lost . I wouldnt have lost anything. My credit card and my i. D. I looked in my wallet and what i wrote in my column last week, i remember as a kid my dads wallet got thicker and thicker with receipts and cards and he would sit down and it would thud on the table like a brick. I went through mine, and i have digital versions frequent flier cards. I dont need stamps because when do you send a physical letter. All i needed was a card and an i. D. I have this pouch on the back of my iphone. And then i took pictures of the cards that i need to get in the gym and things like that and i showed them my iphone and now i dont have to worry about the wallet. Gavin this is here to stay. There are more and more places where i can use square and pay by walking up up to the counter and charge my device. There are more and more instances where i dont need a piece of paper. I got on the plane last week and put in my phone and scanned it. And the credit cards will be part of this things, and then all id need is my i. D. Or the chip in the head. Gavin its october, and what is the biggest product of the year. What will just take off for the holidays. If apple does a tv, it will be that. I also think were seeing this revolution with 3d printing, and were going to see more and more of those things that we see patterns swing towards. If apple does a television, it will be very very different. If they dont do a television, i wouldnt be expect that people will talk about phones and tablets an things, i think that ship has already sailed. I think what will happen more and more is youll have instances where you have devices that really there is no market for yet and those are wearable computing and 3d glasses 3d printers and things like that. Gavin beyond that, what do where do you see microsoft playing . Theyre doing more Offline Stores modeling the apple store. Do you see windows 8 being competitive . What is your sense of where microsoft plays. I think that they, you know, its 3 of people who have windows phones. Thats a pretty small number but its larger than existed a year ago. I think theyll continue to grow. They can continue to eat market share from google because google is not a very pretty experience, the Google Android devices. If you live in a window world you have an xbox and you play video games the microsoft experience is great because it all ties together. I cant see them doing innovative market unless they enter markets that dont exist. And right now these things are just rectangles. I do have another prediction next year. Ive been fighting with the faa to try to let us use devices on airplanes on take off and landing . Gavin yes, tell me about that. Its not talking on cellphones. Gavin you dont care about our safety. Its total utter nonsense. Gavin it is not true . Its not true. Gavin i believe everything im told. So thats not true . Its not true. These are legacy rules that existed decades ago before even ipads and kindles existed. Last year in december, a year ago this week i wrote about this article saying why do we have these rules . The faa say these devices could harm planes. So about a month later they allowed pilots to start using ipads in the cockpit. Wait a second, why can pilots use ipads and i cant. They said, well two ipads is better than 200. We tested ipads and kindles and it turns out they do anything to the plane. Boeing has a rule that it takes a plane with stand 200 volts per square meter of energy coming off of a device. And an ipad puts off. 00006 microvolts. You had needyou would need a Football Team of ipads to crate something that planes cannot handle. Gavin so what is it . Red tape. Gavin a bundle of caution . No, back 03 30 years people were using radio frequency devices that probably did interfere with the noise levels of the pilot. But planes are very different and there are fcc rules and its just the government being the government. Gavin you expect the government to no longer be the government in 2013 . Whats the trendline . There has been a lot of push back. I have not stopped writing about this. Ive been relentless. Last week the fcc urged the faa to change this. This is hurting consumers as far as productivity. This week the senator from missouri said if the faa does not tart start to look into this in a quicker fashion theyll start legislation. Gavin i could not support that more being on the plane as much as i am. Twitter,. 2014, im writing a book, it will be out next year about twitter. But the prediction is theyll file for s1 by the end of the year and go public in 2014. But there is speculation that they will probably bring in 1 billion in revenue next year. Which will be quite astounding. Gavin pinterest. Who . I just dont like it. Gavin why not. It feels girly. Is that a bad word. Gavin considering that half the population fits that description, youre not a fan. Im just not a fan. I dont get it. I get a lot of things on the internet, but not that one. Are you . Gavin absolutely. Just started. What is the big ipo in 2013 . That is a very good question that i actually do not have the answer for. What is the big ipo in 2013 . I dont know. Well have to see. I think were going to have to see facebook come a little further up, and i think that whats happening is you go a lot you got a lot of start ups that are worth too much money to be acquired so theyll have to have Business Models or theyll have to close the doors or ipo. It will be very interesting for some of the larger companies. Gavin what do you expect facebook transition to mobile are they going to exceed expectation or struggle. I think theyll continue to transition to mobile but the question will consumers continue to transfer to mobile with them. Its all very anecdoteal because everyone has antic an an anecdote. For me facebook is in a cloud. The question is can they become when Facebook First started . They have competition from twitter, instagram, which they own, is taking that traffic away. It will be really interesting to see. Gavin most overrated tech company in 2013 . Applejust kidding. Most over rated in 2013 . I would probably say is probably will beit could be facebook. I think that if they continue to lose segue to other other mobile apps and experiences facebook could become over rated. Cenk most underrated. Thee these 3d printing and robotic companies. Theyre getting traction with investors but theyre not part of the mainstream consumer mentality yet but they absolutely will be. I think drones will be huge in warfare. It will eventually be robot fighting robot an well be sitting around seating sandwiches watching into with Artificial Intelligence and the chip well watch together. Gavin unbelievable. To a successful and fabulous 2013. Yes. Gavin thanks, nick. Thank you. Gavin even if were not ready for chip head plants yet tim oreilly says locationbased data will take on a mind of its own. The founder of oreilly media hes our next guest. vo answer pour disaronno into a flute glass and top with prosecco. Brought to you by disaronno. Be originale. Did you get chips for the party . Nope. Cheese plate . Cheese plate. Nope. I made something better. You used the oven . Boom [ male announcer ] pillsbury crescents. Let the making begin. [ female announcer ] why settle for plain bread . Heres a better idea. Pillsbury grands flaky layers biscuits in just 15 minutes the light delicate layers add a layer of warmth to your next dinner. Pillsbury grands biscuits let the making begin. vo next on current tv i am here to make a citizens arrest. vo current tv presents a month long festival of true stories. Get real for the holidays. [ theme music ] gavin tim oreilly of the owe lylery media, an architect of one of the first commercial website has been long regarded as one of the best visionaries in the industry. It advocated for open Source Software long before most people knew what the heck he was talking about. Tim, its great to have you on the show. Youve been notably on top of every big tech trend over the last threeplus decades. In terms of the trajectory in change and technology, where are we . What era would you describeyouve coined the phrase web 2. 0. Are we still within that margin or are we entering another phase in technology . Were definitely entering another phrase. When the term web 2. 0 became popular everybody was saying web 3. 0. They thought it was a version number but it wasnt, it was the when the web was over. If there is a web 3. 0 it will be characterized by all the same rules as web 2. 0, which is datadriven applications. But the data will be coming from sensors rather than people typing on keyboards. I think that captures a lot of what is going on in the mobile revolution. You know, if you think about how many apps are reporting data continuously becoming useful because they provide the context toish due dont have to tell them anything. Gavin right. Were just starting to get into that revolution where we can start to say, oh, wait, the sensors can provide a lot more data. I love the way squareif you have square wallet and Square Register theyre basically love the level of a single device. If you have the square app running on your phone, you walk into a store with Square Register running your face appears on the register. They go, okay, tell me your name, and you say tim oreilly, they look down, yeah, that looks right. Then your credit card is already in there. Its amazing simplification of the interface. Because so much of the context is provided by sensors. So were getting to a place where things start to system magical because the computers are doing more of that work by themselves. Gavin youve been talking a lot about the Maker Movement. Chris andersen and others have been bringing it to the forefront discussing it more broadly. Over hyped at this stage . Wildly under hyped for a long period of time . I guess i would say like so many things both of those are true. First off the Maker Movement has a lot of elements to it. There is this whole side of sensors, which is just totally becoming consumerrized. But the Maker Movement has the characteristic that was described as ai. As soon as it becomes mainstream, its not the Maker Movement any more. The fact is there were makers building multi touch displays before the iphone came out there was this big multi touch screen he built it at nyu you saw it at cnn. It was from the company that he started. He was the maker. This University Guy making this cool technology. Now its a consumer device. You dont think of somebody who builds a touch screen. A similar way you have Chris Andersen dyi drones started three or four years ago. This whole Community Building these drones, but increasingly theyre going to be toys that you buy at toys r us. Gavin right. And you know, is it still maker . Make center some ways is all of this stuff that is flowing out of the Maker Movement. The sensor stuff robotics 3d printing. Those things are moving into the consumeization phase. I always think of two aspects that are the Maker Movement. The first is its a stage just like the home Computer Club was the stage of the pc industry. When we started to make magazine in 2005 and started make Center Center 2006 it was clearly an enthusiast movement. Companies started to be form, and seven and eight years later its really in full flight as an entrepreneurial area. Those trends that we saw with thethe enthusiast are now becoming commercialized. Do i think those trends are under hyped . Absolutely not. Gavin what are the trend clearly from your perspective and Technology World areover are over hyped are we going to be dominantly media focused or are we getting to a point of saturation . Are there areas of Artificial Intelligence where at a certain point enough is an enough. The notion of singularity, dubai it, and what are the areas where you say, pause and say boy were getting carried away. Social media is a completely transformative set of tools. I think when every new start up in Silicon Valley is some variation of social media play is over. I do think that every app will be social just like every app will be mobile. It will have an element of social and mobile. So you know, i think there is a lot more gas in social, but you know, its certainly at a point in the hype cycle where its having to grow up. Right. I think that the singularity singularityi always think of the fall of the roman empire. Its easy to say these are the charts and heres the progress, and, yeah, there was progress over time but realisticcally there was the revolution and there were long periods where not much happened. We could have that again. I like to pointi was in istanbul last year. And the they had the largest building for thousands of years. And the next largest building was the blue mosque a quarter mile away, a copy of it. You know i do think that there are possibilities that we could plateau. Because for all this notion that progress is exponential is its actually not. Its a serious of overlapping curves that flatten out and declines and Technology Innovation<\/a> and media in 2013. This year being the year that we plant electronic chips in our heads . Or is it time for that long awaited apple tv. Nick bilton is here with what to expect in consumer technology. And then media visionary tim oreilly, he looks into his crystal ball that is filled with new data and systems that will change the way we do business. Then finally you heard of the 100,000 laptop. Then now the 20 laptop. Rob nail joins us with a tool that might revolutionize education the way we know it. First we go with nick bilton with what to expect in 2013. Thanks for coming back on the show. Thank you so much. Gavin here we are 2013. 2013 all right . Gavin life moves on and nothing we can do about it unless Technology Figures<\/a> that out. What are the biggest trends that are going to define this remarkable year 2013. I think well finally get chips in our head, and we will not have to speak to people. Well just communicate. You and i will do an interview just like that. Gavin the year of the google glasses. Yes. You will start to see those next year. Theyre going to be released in the developer version next year. There will an couple of thousand of them out in the wild in the beginning of january. Ail see these nerds having conversations with them. Cenk are you one of those nerds . Will we expect to see you like this . Ill test it out, i dont know if i can go that go that far wearing a computer on my face. Gavin what are you wearing what are we wearing . This is theit tracks how you walk, how you sleep you charge it every ten days i believe, and ive atried a bunch of them. There are devices that just do sleep. There are devices that does the nike fuel end and that one is good because it can track your running and things like that. But the thing that is fascinating is the sleep aspect, it sees you sleep four hours a night and wake up. Gavin deep sleep. Do you like yours. Gavin im enjoying it. I find how long it takes me to go to sleep and this deep sleep is fascinating and it tracks the times that you sleep best, so you wonder why youryou develop certain patterns. With what is interesting to me is that okay, telling me how much i walk, thats great. There are a lot of devices that do that. But the sleep aspect. When i go to the doctor and he says, how have you been sleeping sleeping . Ive been able to tell him. I havent been able to do that in an actual, methodical way. Gavin were going to be wearing augmented reality glasses, devices on our wrists. Are we going to see a new apple tv thats going to revolutionize tvs as we know them . Were going to have an apple device that goes on your wall or an apple device that goes on your wrist. Some sort of communication device on your wrist. Imagine you have your smart phone in your pocket and you get a text message, youll be able to interact with it on your wrist. Right now they sell these rectangles in all these different sizes thats all they sell rectangles in different sizes. Theyll be thinner but to innovate and get consumers out to the store it will have to be to sit on your wall or wear it. Gavin how has steve cook done in replaceing hes doing great. He doesnt have the opinions that steve jobs would have, you know, steve jobs would Say Something<\/a> wasand he would curse about whatever it was. I think tim is a little bit gavin and among them, you would never leave home without and its your Desert Island<\/a> piece. And he has moved forward with it. Its the months most amazeing device. Do you have one. Gavin i dont have one. Ill sell you mine, for lots and lots of money. I carry mine with me all the time. Gavin isnt that the most stark and notable deviations from steve jobs in terms of leadership of cook, or was that a ruse of sorts when it was the notion of the indianapolis pad when in fact, it was in development when he was life. I think the different in the ipad mini and the ipad biggy its great when youre home. And the mini is so you can take it out. Steve jobs was sick the last couple of years of his life. He didnt go out and about. He didnt sit on the subway and things like that. For him it was at product that he needed but its a product that everybody else needed. Maybe thats something that weve seen happen. The other aspect that has changed under tims guidance is this year there was a shakeup in the Design Department<\/a> in apple. Youll see more design. You know how your ipod cast looks like an old radio. When they copy things from the real world and put it in here. There are people at apple that dont like that, and steve jobs did. When you see a pool table and its really ugly, i think next year youll see a lot more edgy design that we havent seen from apple in quite some time. Gavin what will we expect from the future future . Gavin what do you expect later this year as it relates to what you have been advocating, and thats these wallets virtual wallets. You believe that the end of the world of wallets. You would short companies i would short companies. I feel sorry for those wallet companies. A couple of weeks ago i almostfor the first time in many years my wallet fell out of my back pocket. I saw it when i stood up. Whoa, i would have lost . I wouldnt have lost anything. My credit card and my i. D. I looked in my wallet and what i wrote in my column last week, i remember as a kid my dads wallet got thicker and thicker with receipts and cards and he would sit down and it would thud on the table like a brick. I went through mine, and i have digital versions frequent flier cards. I dont need stamps because when do you send a physical letter. All i needed was a card and an i. D. I have this pouch on the back of my iphone. And then i took pictures of the cards that i need to get in the gym and things like that and i showed them my iphone and now i dont have to worry about the wallet. Gavin this is here to stay. There are more and more places where i can use square and pay by walking up up to the counter and charge my device. There are more and more instances where i dont need a piece of paper. I got on the plane last week and put in my phone and scanned it. And the credit cards will be part of this things, and then all id need is my i. D. Or the chip in the head. Gavin its october, and what is the biggest product of the year. What will just take off for the holidays. If apple does a tv, it will be that. I also think were seeing this revolution with 3d printing, and were going to see more and more of those things that we see patterns swing towards. If apple does a television, it will be very very different. If they dont do a television, i wouldnt be expect that people will talk about phones and tablets an things, i think that ship has already sailed. I think what will happen more and more is youll have instances where you have devices that really there is no market for yet and those are wearable computing and 3d glasses 3d printers and things like that. Gavin beyond that, what do where do you see microsoft playing . Theyre doing more Offline Stores<\/a> modeling the apple store. Do you see windows 8 being competitive . What is your sense of where microsoft plays. I think that they, you know, its 3 of people who have windows phones. Thats a pretty small number but its larger than existed a year ago. I think theyll continue to grow. They can continue to eat market share from google because google is not a very pretty experience, the Google Android<\/a> devices. If you live in a window world you have an xbox and you play video games the microsoft experience is great because it all ties together. I cant see them doing innovative market unless they enter markets that dont exist. And right now these things are just rectangles. I do have another prediction next year. Ive been fighting with the faa to try to let us use devices on airplanes on take off and landing . Gavin yes, tell me about that. Its not talking on cellphones. Gavin you dont care about our safety. Its total utter nonsense. Gavin it is not true . Its not true. Gavin i believe everything im told. So thats not true . Its not true. These are legacy rules that existed decades ago before even ipads and kindles existed. Last year in december, a year ago this week i wrote about this article saying why do we have these rules . The faa say these devices could harm planes. So about a month later they allowed pilots to start using ipads in the cockpit. Wait a second, why can pilots use ipads and i cant. They said, well two ipads is better than 200. We tested ipads and kindles and it turns out they do anything to the plane. Boeing has a rule that it takes a plane with stand 200 volts per square meter of energy coming off of a device. And an ipad puts off. 00006 microvolts. You had needyou would need a Football Team<\/a> of ipads to crate something that planes cannot handle. Gavin so what is it . Red tape. Gavin a bundle of caution . No, back 03 30 years people were using radio frequency devices that probably did interfere with the noise levels of the pilot. But planes are very different and there are fcc rules and its just the government being the government. Gavin you expect the government to no longer be the government in 2013 . Whats the trendline . There has been a lot of push back. I have not stopped writing about this. Ive been relentless. Last week the fcc urged the faa to change this. This is hurting consumers as far as productivity. This week the senator from missouri said if the faa does not tart start to look into this in a quicker fashion theyll start legislation. Gavin i could not support that more being on the plane as much as i am. Twitter,. 2014, im writing a book, it will be out next year about twitter. But the prediction is theyll file for s1 by the end of the year and go public in 2014. But there is speculation that they will probably bring in 1 billion in revenue next year. Which will be quite astounding. Gavin pinterest. Who . I just dont like it. Gavin why not. It feels girly. Is that a bad word. Gavin considering that half the population fits that description, youre not a fan. Im just not a fan. I dont get it. I get a lot of things on the internet, but not that one. Are you . Gavin absolutely. Just started. What is the big ipo in 2013 . That is a very good question that i actually do not have the answer for. What is the big ipo in 2013 . I dont know. Well have to see. I think were going to have to see facebook come a little further up, and i think that whats happening is you go a lot you got a lot of start ups that are worth too much money to be acquired so theyll have to have Business Models<\/a> or theyll have to close the doors or ipo. It will be very interesting for some of the larger companies. Gavin what do you expect facebook transition to mobile are they going to exceed expectation or struggle. I think theyll continue to transition to mobile but the question will consumers continue to transfer to mobile with them. Its all very anecdoteal because everyone has antic an an anecdote. For me facebook is in a cloud. The question is can they become when Facebook First<\/a> started . They have competition from twitter, instagram, which they own, is taking that traffic away. It will be really interesting to see. Gavin most overrated tech company in 2013 . Applejust kidding. Most over rated in 2013 . I would probably say is probably will beit could be facebook. I think that if they continue to lose segue to other other mobile apps and experiences facebook could become over rated. Cenk most underrated. Thee these 3d printing and robotic companies. Theyre getting traction with investors but theyre not part of the mainstream consumer mentality yet but they absolutely will be. I think drones will be huge in warfare. It will eventually be robot fighting robot an well be sitting around seating sandwiches watching into with Artificial Intelligence<\/a> and the chip well watch together. Gavin unbelievable. To a successful and fabulous 2013. Yes. Gavin thanks, nick. Thank you. Gavin even if were not ready for chip head plants yet tim oreilly says locationbased data will take on a mind of its own. The founder of oreilly media hes our next guest. vo answer pour disaronno into a flute glass and top with prosecco. Brought to you by disaronno. Be originale. Did you get chips for the party . Nope. Cheese plate . Cheese plate. Nope. I made something better. You used the oven . Boom [ male announcer ] pillsbury crescents. Let the making begin. [ female announcer ] why settle for plain bread . Heres a better idea. Pillsbury grands flaky layers biscuits in just 15 minutes the light delicate layers add a layer of warmth to your next dinner. Pillsbury grands biscuits let the making begin. vo next on current tv i am here to make a citizens arrest. vo current tv presents a month long festival of true stories. Get real for the holidays. [ theme music ] gavin tim oreilly of the owe lylery media, an architect of one of the first commercial website has been long regarded as one of the best visionaries in the industry. It advocated for open Source Software<\/a> long before most people knew what the heck he was talking about. Tim, its great to have you on the show. Youve been notably on top of every big tech trend over the last threeplus decades. In terms of the trajectory in change and technology, where are we . What era would you describeyouve coined the phrase web 2. 0. Are we still within that margin or are we entering another phase in technology . Were definitely entering another phrase. When the term web 2. 0 became popular everybody was saying web 3. 0. They thought it was a version number but it wasnt, it was the when the web was over. If there is a web 3. 0 it will be characterized by all the same rules as web 2. 0, which is datadriven applications. But the data will be coming from sensors rather than people typing on keyboards. I think that captures a lot of what is going on in the mobile revolution. You know, if you think about how many apps are reporting data continuously becoming useful because they provide the context toish due dont have to tell them anything. Gavin right. Were just starting to get into that revolution where we can start to say, oh, wait, the sensors can provide a lot more data. I love the way squareif you have square wallet and Square Register<\/a> theyre basically love the level of a single device. If you have the square app running on your phone, you walk into a store with Square Register<\/a> running your face appears on the register. They go, okay, tell me your name, and you say tim oreilly, they look down, yeah, that looks right. Then your credit card is already in there. Its amazing simplification of the interface. Because so much of the context is provided by sensors. So were getting to a place where things start to system magical because the computers are doing more of that work by themselves. Gavin youve been talking a lot about the Maker Movement<\/a>. Chris andersen and others have been bringing it to the forefront discussing it more broadly. Over hyped at this stage . Wildly under hyped for a long period of time . I guess i would say like so many things both of those are true. First off the Maker Movement<\/a> has a lot of elements to it. There is this whole side of sensors, which is just totally becoming consumerrized. But the Maker Movement<\/a> has the characteristic that was described as ai. As soon as it becomes mainstream, its not the Maker Movement<\/a> any more. The fact is there were makers building multi touch displays before the iphone came out there was this big multi touch screen he built it at nyu you saw it at cnn. It was from the company that he started. He was the maker. This University Guy<\/a> making this cool technology. Now its a consumer device. You dont think of somebody who builds a touch screen. A similar way you have Chris Andersen<\/a> dyi drones started three or four years ago. This whole Community Building<\/a> these drones, but increasingly theyre going to be toys that you buy at toys r us. Gavin right. And you know, is it still maker . Make center some ways is all of this stuff that is flowing out of the Maker Movement<\/a>. The sensor stuff robotics 3d printing. Those things are moving into the consumeization phase. I always think of two aspects that are the Maker Movement<\/a>. The first is its a stage just like the home Computer Club<\/a> was the stage of the pc industry. When we started to make magazine in 2005 and started make Center Center<\/a> 2006 it was clearly an enthusiast movement. Companies started to be form, and seven and eight years later its really in full flight as an entrepreneurial area. Those trends that we saw with thethe enthusiast are now becoming commercialized. Do i think those trends are under hyped . Absolutely not. Gavin what are the trend clearly from your perspective and Technology World<\/a> areover are over hyped are we going to be dominantly media focused or are we getting to a point of saturation . Are there areas of Artificial Intelligence<\/a> where at a certain point enough is an enough. The notion of singularity, dubai it, and what are the areas where you say, pause and say boy were getting carried away. Social media is a completely transformative set of tools. I think when every new start up in Silicon Valley<\/a> is some variation of social media play is over. I do think that every app will be social just like every app will be mobile. It will have an element of social and mobile. So you know, i think there is a lot more gas in social, but you know, its certainly at a point in the hype cycle where its having to grow up. Right. I think that the singularity singularityi always think of the fall of the roman empire. Its easy to say these are the charts and heres the progress, and, yeah, there was progress over time but realisticcally there was the revolution and there were long periods where not much happened. We could have that again. I like to pointi was in istanbul last year. And the they had the largest building for thousands of years. And the next largest building was the blue mosque a quarter mile away, a copy of it. You know i do think that there are possibilities that we could plateau. Because for all this notion that progress is exponential is its actually not. Its a serious of overlapping curves that flatten out and declines and Something Else<\/a> comes and takes its place. Its not you know, necessarily the case that progress will just magically automatically continue. I think, for example of you look at the state of the economy economy, and what is the fundamental investment in r d . You know you look at the fact that if we look at that Historical Perspective<\/a> that ray likes to give, you had a lot of different economies so when you stagnated the arab world was flourishing. China was flourishing. We have one world now. Gavin when we come back well talk about privacy on the web and what that means in the future. [ piano plays ] Troy Polamalus<\/a> going deeper. And so is head shoulders deep clean. [ male announcer ] with 7 benefits it goes deep to remove grease, gunk and flakes. Deep. Like me. [ male announcer ] head shoulders deep clean for men. I want to focus on the folks that are making a difference. vo heres how you can connect with the gavin newsom show. Im an outsider in the inside. Ideas are the best politics. [ theme music ] gavin were back with media visionary tim oreilly, founder of oreilly media. I asked him how well deal with privacy in 2013. You know, there are a couple of notions of privacy and one gets confused with secrecy. I. E. I really want to have something that nobody else knows. The other isand its not knowable. Its protected. The other notion is that there are social norms about what you dig into. You know there is probably a lot i could probably find out about your personal life or my personal life, and you dont. We dont worry about that. We simply say this is private an we dont have to make it secret in order for it to be private. Private is a social construct not a technical construct. Secret is a technical construct. You have to do something to make something secret. But private is something that we agree on between ourselves and i think we need to under you know that distinction. If we do, oh, yeah, its going to be very hard to keep information secret because there are so many case where is the information needs to be shared with a lot of people in order to be useful. You know, you want your genetic profile to be part of your medical record. You want any doctor to be able to see it. You want your personal health apps and share it with other people because you really for example, if youre a community with patients like me, if your data is shared, it will give more meaning to the quest to solve this disease that is changing your life. You will want to give up that privacy. But what you want to have is this notion to say, i dont want you to do with certain things with this information. I dont want to pry into this. I dont want you to use it in these ways. Its a regime in which we stop thinking about data being secret in order to be private but what are the permitted uses . Who gets to do what with it . There are examples like that in our society. Insider trading. We dont say you cant know anything. We just say if you do know t you cant trade on it if youre an insider. In a similar way youll see in patent cases the penalties are greater if you know prior and you go ahead. People try not to know. Thats a bug in the system because patents are encouraged to build on prior art but there are incentives in not knowing. You see legal regimes because there are consequence it is you do. Its a really big moving target. I dont think were going to have the privacy issue solved for a long time but i think many of the traditional privacy advocates are trying to build an imagine near line where some how were going to be able to through technological means to manuelcally keep stuff secret. Is that what a fire fox is trying to do in the do not track or the collusion strategy strategies . You support things along those lines . I think its certainly true that its useful to have those mechanisms but anybody who thinks that having those mechanisms will change the fundamental dynamic by which you know, we are no longer able totheyre just chipping around the edges. The fact is if you use a cell phone your location is always known to someone. Its always discoverable. If you are using it for payment as we increasingly will, well know where you made the payment as well who you made it to, we know that from a credit card, too. Gavin right. There is a lot of data just thrown off by you living in our digital world. Yeah, you can say do not track on the web and all of a sudden suddenvery few people will use it, gosh, i actually now find that i have to reenter my credentials every time . If this trend is to supply context so we dont have to retype things, you cant do that in a world where youre basically erasing everything. Oh so you have to get more nuanced about what is important to keep secret, and what is really important to say no, you cant do that. We dont want to be spammed. We dont want people to abuse our information. We have to figure out what those consequences are for people who do rather than some how saying were going to hide our information. Gavin and who is the arbitor of those decisions . What is governments role in all this . And just broadening the question when you look at this larger trend is government a problem or are we too much of a spectator as it stand now without the capacity to truly understand the world around us . I guess i would say a couple of things there. The first thing is that its best if government stays out of a problem until there is really a clear con season does thata clear consensus that there is a problem. The market has a way of working a certain number of things out. Government should intervene when there is clear market failure. There is a difference between the market is sorting itself out, and the dust has not settled yet. And there are some people who are being inconvenienced, say incumbents. Going after the taxi cab industry. Yes saying that the government needs to intervene clearly too early. Copyright because piracy is a big problem, government should wait a long time. Privacy is in that same category. You could say by that time so much damage could be done. We have to make sure that were very clear about what are the real serious risks and if there are serious risks you have to act sooner in some areas than others, but i think you want the future to unfold, and then be prepared to act when its clear that there is a problem and the market has not solved that problem. There is abuse and there is very clear abuse. And so that role of government is an ultimate back stop rather than sort of a nanny who is going to make sure that nothing goes wrong. I think there is a big difference you know, i dont think any of us want to live in a law also world. But we also dont want somebody telling us what to do all the time especially a world thats changing so much. Let me just give you another example. As a participant do you want to be a helicopter parent . We all look at that, parents who are continually trying to make sure nothing bad happens to their kids, and their kids grow up neurotic. No, you want your kids to explore, have their own selfesteem. You want them to go out in the world and make mistakes that they learn from, and why wouldnt we want that for our society. Gavin quick point, i noticed you tweeted that you were going to run out and get those google glasses, not over hyped . You think well be Walking Around<\/a> with glasses no, i dont know that well all bei justfirst of all i think its really important to realize that this notion that were going to be looking at screens is over hyped. Thats one of the things that people havent quite realized. There is more and more technology that will mean that we dont need to look at screens. Going back to the progress of google maps to the autonomous vehicle. Right now we still think of maps and directions. We have a device that shows us on the screen, shows us how to get there. Gavin right. But the google autonomous vehicle, you talk to your car. You say, i wanting to to go 188 king street, and my car takes me there. Im not looking at thing talking to anything, im not looking at the screen. So i think there are going to be more and more apps where the context is supplied by this overall system that were living in. That will change some of our fascination with screens. That being said, how wonderful would it be so many times gavin whats that guys name . I met him before. Yeah, ive been in meetings where they are wearing glasses and thats how they use it. Gavin thank you for being on the show. Well show you the brand new 20 tablet, and why it will be a game changer in education. But first a quick break. Of sununu, youre wrong. Mitt romney, youre wrong. We need more teachers, not fewer teachers and more cops and more firefighters that support our we were skipping stones and letting go over the river and down the road [ female announcer ] at Nature Valley<\/a> we know nature comes together in amazing ways. Thats why we bring together natural ingredients, like dark chocolate with toasted oats, or sweet golden honey. Perfect combinations of natures delicious ingredients from Nature Valley<\/a>. I was thinking that i hope this never ends [ female announcer ] Nature Valley<\/a> granola bars nature at its most delicious. Gavin rob nail, the ceo of Singularity University<\/a>. A sophisticated learning platform for Business Executives<\/a> and intellectuals all around the world. Today hes here to showcase a brand new innovation. It looks like a ipad mini for just the fraction of the price. Thank you for joining us. Tell us for thousand those of us who never heard of Singularity University<\/a> what it is that you do. To educate, inspire and empower leaders to you understand these exponentially technologies. Gavin and people come to the university from where . Are you able to get the best and the brightest from around the world . Are folks coming from other universities . Executives, who makes up today we have a couple of different types of forms. We have one tenweek immerse similarsivegraduate program and we have 80 students from all over the world who come and live with us for those ten weeks to look at technology and figure out what to do with it. The rest of the year we have sevenday executive programs for those who are executives, ceos ceos entrepreneurs investors, government policymakers, people who need to understand what technology is capable and where its going. Gavin what are those exponential technologies that will change and shape the trajecttrajectory of our future. The root of the can curriculum is based on the computing power. We get into robotics and ai. Nano tech, bio tech, medicine, neuroscience digital fabrication. Those are the Core Technology<\/a> tracks. Then we have core overlaying tracks in policy law and ethics, finance and economics design entrepreneurship, as well as focus areas in space environment, energy, and its the overwhelming sort of interdisciplinary nature of that where its cool to see some interesting new robotics, and its interesting to see Nano Technology<\/a> and medical technology. Where you see all the change across those areas what quickly happens is you start to see the overlap between those different areas. We have a convergence track as well. One of the tracks specifically is what happens if we get our faculty from medicine and the faculty from robotics head to head saying this technology is coming and what it can lead to . Gavin you brought in another example, you have a tablet on top of a book. This is a new tablet. You really want get these yet from a copy from data wind from india. Data wind has innovated taking not the latest and greatest technologies but the ones just before that. We have all the iphones and they cost 600. What about the ones from a year ago . The computer power from that is still better than anything that has gone into space right . What if you take that old technology, old by a year, but its old and put it in Something Else<\/a>, what can you do with it . Now this tablet is called the acosh tablet in india. They had a version called ub slate. Theyre selling these in india for 20. This is an droid app. This book literally cost more than this what looks to an the layperson like an ipad mini. Exactly. I could have 100 copies or 1,000 copies of this book on this tab tablet. Interestingly though i would still have to pay 20 for the book to get it on the tablet. Gavin what is the ultimate from your perspective that 20 tablet. In large degree, an education educational institution. I believe one the greatest disruptions happening right now is in our educational system, and largely its happening because of the capabilities of technology. The coolest projectand there are really cool projects, sebastian, the utomy you name it. Hundred companies, 50 amazing ones in the Silicon Valley<\/a> innovating around education specifically around the concept you learn differently than i do. You mention that youre dyslexic. There are ways at a we can optimize your learning environment different from mine. This is extraordinarily an exciting moment. Today, a teacher is largely a jobthis is going to be controversial. Its happening right now. Today a teacher is a job. But with technology very soon a lot of what a teacher does can be a tool, a device. This is going to happen. One way or another its going to happen. I think its a huge opportunity for us to be able to optimize through technology how we learn because i tell you i didnt learn certain typescertain statistics for one. Im terrible at statistics because i had a terrible teacher. This is college level. Earlier stages i was more inclined to science and math because i had a great science and math teacher. If you had a device which could be a video of the best teacher ever, which is what many are doing, that may be the best way to teach certain subjects. Then that teacher can help reinforce in live mode what is happening have. Gavin coaching mentoring organizing. And process what else is going on in their lives and help them to figure out what to learn next perhaps which leads us as policymakers and leaders in the world what do we want them to learn now . If we can teach them anything, what should we be teaching them . This crazy age where technology seems to be achieving anything, what do we want our kids to learn . Gavin rob, were out of time. Im glad to have you on our show. Thank you. Gavin thank you. Its been a pleasure. Gavin you heard a lot about Cool Technologies<\/a> that may change our lives from 2013 from implanted electronic chips to 20 tablets find out why im increasingly concerned about the darker side of innovation and what happens between 3d printing is available to everyone. Did you get chips for the party . Nope. Cheese plate . Cheese plate. Nope. I made something better. You used the oven . Boom [ male announcer ] pillsbury crescents. Let the making begin. [ female announcer ] why settle for plain bread . Heres a better idea. Pillsbury grands flaky layers biscuits in just 15 minutes the light delicate layers add a layer of warmth to your next dinner. Pillsbury grands biscuits let the making begin. [ theme music ] gavin well end this show on a somber note, especially in light of the tragedy in newtown we cant but help draw attention to a product, and that is the 3d precipitating of handguns. They renewed the federal ban on plastic guns that is set to expire at the end of the year. As you heard on the program this technology does exist. Its already entirely possible to print a handgun using plastic components. And cannot be traced or identify identified. Legislation around new Technology Like<\/a> plastic guns is critical but its clearly not enough. The biden task force that the president recently announced to help identify solutions is certainly a step in the right direction. The decision to veto a new law to conceal guns on College Campuses<\/a> and daycare and hospitals made good sense. But walmart and others have suspended the sale of some military style assault weapons. Why they were selling them in the first place is a conversation for another time. All of that still is not enough. Like so many others im calling for tougher gun control measures. At the very minimum they must include three key things. First we must get a ban once and for all on all assault weapons and senator Dianne Feinstein<\/a> has introduced a bill that we need to support. Then we need to close the loopholes that allows for nonlicensed gun dealers that sell guns without background checks that are required by licenses dealers. And then common sense procedures for access on ammunition. It is my hope that something good will come out of this tragedy. Its the opportunity for real change and the opportunity for real leadership. After that, i want to wish everyone a happy holiday. Well be back with a new program furthering the next generation of change makeses january 4th. Until then, happy new year. [ music ] [ piano plays ] Troy Polamalus<\/a> going deeper. And so is head shoulders deep clean. [ male announcer ] with 7 benefits it goes deep to remove grease, gunk and flakes. Deep. Like me. 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