Biggest problem at the moment in july prices rose by 10 percent. Thats the highest for a g 7 member. And it could get worse. Brits could see inflation levels around 20 percent next year. Thats at least according to a forecast by goldman sachs. Im joined now by hillary ingram. Shes an economist at lancaster university. Hillary. Lets start with these new growth figures. A 2 tenths of a percent. How should we understand this . Oh, as you said, it was a, a slightly lower figure than was some expected. Its almost very close 0 actually, if you look at the 3 month picture, growth is absolutely flat. So allow, the u. K. Economy has actually entered recession. There is no signs of positive grants. A toll on the has been some modest growth in services. But in terms of production, in terms of construction, theyve both fallen. Not surprisingly, the production figure is largely driven by a gas, electric, air conditioning, et cetera, which actually has fallen by 3. 4 percent. So for services there was growth in Consumer Services of point 6 percent. But if you look at that, where we are now, well, still 4. 3 Percentage Points lower than we were pre coded. So there isnt much of that, is there. So all signs pointing to recession, the bank of england even forecasting that it could last into early 2024. Give us an idea. What does that mean for normal brit follow recession basically means that our, our overall output is falling. It means a sort of produce standard of living. Ready. It means, you know, we coupled with those inflation figures that youve been talking about. I some predictions that its going to go to 20 percent. You know, people are only getting pay rise is generally in the low single figures. So people are going to have less purchasing power. People are going to be worse off. There is great uncertainty over the, the sort of gas prices in the situation with russia and allow the u. K. Isnt very dependent on russia. We compete in, well, market. So we are affected, you know, there are food problems with things coming in for ukraine or we have the ongoing problems associated with breaks it. So weve got a very uncertain future really and not just over the coming months, probably over the coming year. An uncertain future, also a new Prime Minister right now. What if anything, can she and her government do to help alter course well, in some respects, not very much because its all of our external factors. Generally. I mean, she did announce last week you know, that the cap on the Energy Prices which might induce a bit of Consumer Confidence make people think theyre going to be slightly better off than they otherwise might to been. Theres going to be help for businesses. So that might stop certain businesses closing because we were hearing tales of, you know, hotels, restaurants, et cetera. Simply saying they were going to shot that businesses because they werent going to be able to afford the projected price rises because of course, they want subject to any capital. So i think the only way really that the new Prime Minister in government, again to be able to alleviate this situation is by instilling a bit more confidence in consumers and businesses. All right, hurrying am with lancaster university. Thank you very much. And kim bye was not just the u. K. Energy costs are soaring across europe, raising the prices of everyday items and staples gooding bread and its making life hard for businesses which know they cant fully pass along their own cost to consumers. More are now warning, but theyre approaching insolvency. This bakery has been in the same family for 3 generations, selling bread to tubing and locals for 9 decades. Andrea snacks, father helped the business survived despite competition from the Big Clear Creek chains. Now snacks, future is uncertain. Exploding energy costs prices for ingredients like butter and eggs, up to 100 percent. Its become unsustainable before viola in the thought we actually slide into bankruptcy. Wed rather call it quits while we can actually control how it ends so long. Awesome. So you think ok, so ive driven the whole thing to the wall. My grandpa got it done on my father to watch. And then i closed up shop for the all turn the key than delighted saud roaches on. There isnt much reliable data on how many german businesses are on the brink of bankruptcy. But alarm bells ringing. In august, the number of businesses filing for bankruptcy rose 26 percent compared to the same period last year. One on 10 companies have reduced production according to service. You become piggly every day. Were not just getting calls for help, but emergency calls from our members and daily were hearing about companies becoming insolvent. Of course, thats very, very sad because these companies have suffered through 2 years of covered and survived that comp good. Were not, were strong covered in unless i have the impression that the Decision Makers in the government still dont understand whats happening. We have Energy Prices 10 times as high as the usa or china. How can we be competitive . And hes, hes armed with our congregations. Shes son. Germanys economy minister has promised a broad rescue package for mid sized german businesses. But when will this package be delivered to any . Nobody knows is long, constantly and safety hip hop. I shall know the rescue packages of concentrated on households. Mid sized businesses have been forgotten. It is a real need for Government Support of businesses. If we want to avoid a wave of insolvency is im guessing more companies will go to the world than during the corona crisis via the quantities to cope with rising costs and trash, neck has raised his prices twice this year. Not far from some customers. Whos there . Okay, i dont want to pay when youre a 50. 00 for a brett, so either or 7 or 8 euros for a loaf of bread. And when one cant afford bread from a real bakery, its a dark day for our country. As Small Companies like the snacks, they go down the chain, many are asking how long the government can hold back and insolvency. Cinnamon if human slavery sounds like a problem out of a history book. Think again, a new report by the International Labor organization. Now, whats the latest numbers to the awful practice . And says the coven 19 pandemic has made things worse. Not to begin with, the ilo reports that almost 50000000 people worldwide or in modern slavery. They split that figure into 2 categories, roughly 28000000 who are enforced labor and 22000000 enforced marriages. Forced labor has been growing in recent years. Since 2016, theres been an increase of 2700000 people. Among all slave laborers, almost 12000000 are women and girls, or 3300000 are children. The pandemic appears to have driven an uptick in those numbers with loss of income. Many workers found themselves indebted and without options. Martin slavery is especially common in the arab states and in the asia pacific region. But its also a problem in africa, europe and central asia, and the americas guy rider is director of the International Labor organization in geneva guy. Thank you for coming on to our show. Your last report on human slavery was in 2016. What stands out now more than 5 years later. But the bad news now is that were seeing an increase that last report was published. Focusing on 1st, like the modern slavery covers 1st labor enforce marriage. We concentrate from false labor. And what were seeing today is the total number of 1st labor is on any one day in the world. Comes out at 27600000. 00 and thats 2700000. 00 more than the last time we reported. So were going in the wrong direction. This report also says the pandemic is helping fuel and up to can you tell us more about that . Yeah, i mean, i think if you look at all of the origins and of course, is a false labor vulnerability, and poverty is that the heart of many of them, coven . 19, i think is exacerbated. We seen it throughout the world in different ways. Has made people move, honorable has made poverty more prevalent and these are conditions which enable forced labor to increase, but i would warm against just putting these numbers at the door of co it and saying thats it. There is some evidence that the numbers were going up, and by the way, the same is true of child labor. Even before the pandemic hit us, and i think more than just cove it, i think we have to accept that we have taken our eye off the bill. We stop focusing on force labor and indeed child labor and taking the types of measures that we know are effective in combating these abuses. When we talk about those measures, what can we say about private sector efforts to improve their supply chains . Thats often a place where slavery is hiding, sometimes in plain sight what it does. And in fact, that 2700000 increase. Ive mentioned since our last report is entirely attributable to 1st labor extracted by private factors in the private sector of the state imposed false labor only constitute 3900000. 00 of the total. So most of the bad stuff is going on in the private sector. And that is despite, i think, the very well intentioned and honest work being done to clean up supply chains. But, you know, if you look around the world recruitment systems are often opaque and unreliable. Theyre not ethical over one 3rd or 4th laborers or in situations where their wages are simply with held by the people that employ them. And theyre stuck in a situation where theyre not receiving their, their moneys. So it is a highly complex and varied situation, but we all have to redouble our records in there. I would include private sector actors, but i also think states even with theyre not directly responsible for false labor. Have a major role to play individually and collectively in the international arena. All right, guy ryder is director general of the International Labor organization. Thank you. Ok. And finally, tourism is making a comeback in the United Arab Emirates revenues their surpassing 5000000000. 00 during the 1st half of the year. Immorality officials are expecting a further boost from the fif, a world cup in neighboring cotter. Any soccer fans are expected to stay in the u. E. Due to the demand for accommodations. Its biggest city, dubai is a major holiday destination and home to one of the worlds busiest airports. And thats it for me and the business team. Find out more about these and other business stories online at d. W dot com slash business. Im from beardsley. Thanks for watching. Ah, with ah this is written more than 100 titles. Stephen king, the grand master of horror. Hes won numerous major writing awards, but not the nobel prize for literature. We want to know why not, and to wish him a happy 75th birthday, arent 21 and 30 d w. Hello, jim bean. Wonderful. Ooh. In a relationship of equal a rarity in mexico, where tradition still expects women to submit to men. But a new generation wants to change that love and sex taboos in mexico close in 75 minutes on d. W. Enjoying the view and come take a look at this to the highlights every week in your inbox. Subscribe. Now. People in trucks injured one, trying to flee the city center. More and more refugees are being turned away. The water families played on the tax in the reason for the credit on it is with people seen extreme ground around getting 200. 00 people around the world. More than 300000000 people are seeking refuge. Yes. Why . Because no one should have to flee. Make up your own mind. D. W. Made for mines. Ah, ah. This is dw used life from berlin. The people of scotland bid farewell to Queen Elizabeth the 2nd. He tells a 3rd leads a procession through the heart of the scottish capital through some charles cathedral with thousands hang their final respects to britains longest reign. Monarch
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